The time response in averted births

Abstract A calculation of the timing of births that are averted may seem a curious exercise, when not only do the births in question not occur, but the corresponding conceptions may never have existed. However, such a calculation may have considerable use. In order to assess the likely direct impact of a contraceptive programme on birth rates it is useful to estimate the number of births that would, in the absence of the programme, have occurred among the couples who accept it. Moreover, some time would necessarily elapse before a new 'steady state' in fertility could be reached, even if the programme and the potentially fertile population did not change in any way; and it is worth while to seek to find the times (for a few years after the start of a programme) when the (averted) births would have occurred in its absence, and to examine any inherent oscillations produced in birth rates by it. This question is considered below only for groups of women aged 20 at marriage (a state which is taken to be the start of regular exposure to the risk of conception), but the same methods are applicable to other ages, (possibly allowing for mortality) and appropriate combinations of age groups and cohorts in the fertile range may be used to estimate changes in fertility and reproduction rates expected from a programme, subject to given conditions, for several years after its start. The methods can also be generalised, by means of convolution, to contraceptive programmes that change with time, but these are not considered further.     

Birth month,school graduation,and the timing of births and marriages

We investigated the timing of fertility and marriage in Sweden using exogenous variation in the age at school graduation that results from differences in birth month. Our analysis found that the difference of 11 months in the age at leaving school between women who were born in two consecutive months, December and January, implies a delay in the age at first birth of 4.9 months. This effect of delayed graduation also persists for the timing of second births and first marriages, but it does not affect completed fertility or the overall probability of marriage before age 45. These results suggest the existence of a relatively rigid sequencing of demographic events in early adulthood, and the age at graduation from school emerges as an important factor in determining the timing--but not the quantum--of familyformation. In addition, these effects point to a potentially important influence of social age, defined by an individual's school cohort, instead of biological age. The relevance of social age is likely due to social interactions and peer-group influences exerted by individuals who are in the same school cohort but are not necessarily of the same age.     

A reply to Kim's comment

This reply criticizes Kim's note as incorrectly characterizing the essential feature of the method proposed for life table construction. The method suggested for estimating N(a), the number attaining age 2 during the intercensal period, is to make a separate estimate of the contribution to N (a) made by each single-year cohort that attains 'a' during the period between censuses. Each cohort estimate is constructed by interpolation, utilizing as data the recorded number in the relevant single-year cohorts in the 2 censuses. 2 methods of interpolation were proposed. 1 is an iterative procedure that constructs a preliminary life table by linear interpolation for each cohort and then derives more refined interpolation factors from this preliminary life table. The other procedure derives interpolation factors on the assumption that the proportionate distribution of deaths by age as each cohort moves from the earlier to the later census date is the same as the proportionate distribution of deaths by age over the same age range in a model life table. The advantage of the proposed procedure is that it supplies better estimates of N (a) than do alternative methods. The author concedes that a life table calculated from accurately recorded deaths and an accurately enumerated population would ordinarily be superior. However, he also notes that in the absence of registered deaths data, there is no precise enough conventional method to yield accurate values of average intercensal single-year age-specific mortality rates from nothing more than 2 accurate censuses 11 years apart. A common procedure for calculating life expectation at a very advanced age is to calculate the reciprocal of the death rate among persons over the age in question.     

Gebildet, flexibel und prek?r. Berufseinstieg von Graduierten der Universit?t Salzburg

This article??s aim is to enlighten university graduates?? transition to the labor market, with a focus on atypical forms of work, which have increased strongly in Austria in the past ten years. Especially career entrants, even if highly educated, are affected by these, potentially precarious types of employment. The theoretical part deals with the labor market in general and the specific conditions for academic career-entrants. Using data of the graduate survey conducted by the University of Salzburg in November 2009, this article shows that de facto two thirds of the questioned academic career entrants are employed atypically at the time of the survey. Nevertheless these flexible forms of work seem to decrease the more time has passed since graduation. Therefore a process of normalization of employment forms is assumed.     

Family structure,economic status,and educational attainment

This study examines the effect of family structure on high school graduation by race and gender using data from the first twenty-one waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and recently available retrospective marital histories. The nature of the data allows for a more complete specification of family structure than has been heretofore possible. The analysis tests the hypothesis that the negative effect on educational attainment often associated with living in a mother-only or stepfather family stems primarily from the reduced level of economic resources available to these households. Empirical findings indicate that living with a widowed, divorced, or separated mother has little or no effect on educational attainment once we control for economic status. However, living in a stepfather family appears to have a persistent negative effect on high school graduation rates. Received: 24 July 1995 / Accepted: 9 September 1997     

A developing countries' perspective on population,environment, and development

The subject of this paper is the political behavior of developing states (the South) on issues of population, environment and development. It attempts to understand why the South is so weary of international population policy in the name of the environment. It argues that the South's response is shaped by five inter-related concerns about responsibility, efficiency, efficacy, additionality, and sovereignty. That is, the developing countries, (a) do not want their population growth to be held responsible for global environmental degradation, (b) argue that a more efficient solution to the environmental crisis is consumption control in the North, (c) believe that development remains a necessary condition for efficacious population control, (d) are weary of the population priorities of the North distracting international funds from other developmental goals of the South, and (e) are unprepared to accept any global population norms which challenge their fundamental political, cultural or religious sovereignty. It is maintained that these concerns have historically guided the positions of the South and remain valid and relevant today. Although, over the last two decades of North-South debate on the subject the nuances within these concerns have evolved, the concerns themselves remain valid and were apparent again at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. Finally, it is proposed that although a grand North-South bargain around population-environment-development issues remains unlikely, both sides can gain much from trying to understand - even where they do not agree with - the other's concerns. The purpose of this study is not as much to defend the South's position, as to present it and the rationale behind it.     

Life table construction on the basis of two enumerations of a closed population

The author demonstrates that an accurate detailed life table that represents average mortality experience between two censuses can be constructed if the censuses provide accurate records of the single-year age distribution of a closed population. This life table can begin at age zero if accurate data on the annual number of births during the inter-censal period are available; otherwise the first age in the life table must equal the duration of time between the censuses. "The estimation technique involves the calculation of the number of persons attaining each age during the period between the censuses and the determination of the average rate of increase in the number at each individual age. The success of the technique comes from the use of interpolation to calculate how many in each cohort attain each exact age the cohort passes through between the censuses." The estimation technique is tested using two alternative methods of interpolation. Some illustrations based on data for Sweden and China are included.     

Welfare and the Children of Immigrants: Transmission of Dependence or Investment in the Future?

The public concern that immigrant families might be using a disproportionate share of social benefits and transmitting some form of public dependency to their children, combined with the rising levels of immigrants entering the country, fueled the passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act in 1996, which limited public assistance to many immigrant families. This paper uses the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to explore the association between exposure to welfare and young adult outcomes of high school graduation, college enrollment and labor force participation with a focus on parental nativity status as well as broad country of origin group. Results indicate a persistent negative association between welfare legacy and high school graduation; a negative association that is most pronounced for children of natives. Results also show the largest positive effect of welfare receipt among the most disadvantaged group, the young adult children of immigrants from Mexican and Central American countries. The main finding of this study suggests that the negative impacts of welfare receipt might be lessened and in some cases reversed among the young adults from immigrant families. Such findings challenge the common notion that immigrant families use welfare as a crutch across generations and raise serious concern about U.S. immigration and welfare policies.     

Pearsonian Type I curve and its fertility projection potentials

New procedures are developed in this article for estimating parameters of the Pearsonian Type I curve which are particularly adaptive to factors influencing the pattern of age-specific fertility rates. It is shown that with this model the number of parameters required for the graduation and simulation of these rates can be reduced to only three—total fertility rate, mean and modal ages of fertility. The reduction in the number of fertility parameters offers considerable operational and analytical advantages, and makes the Pearsonian Type I curve particularly appropriate for the construction of a parametric model for fertility projections. In light of the results of empirical tests based on fertility data for Canada, the model’s potential for birth projections appears quite promising.     

Transsexuals and European human rights law

Sexual identity is a legal status, and as such it is as much dependent on public policy as on self-identification. However, because this status can be crucial to one's role in society, a conflict between the legal status and an individual's perceptions or aspirations creates a dilemma if society is committed to individual freedom. This difficulty can become particularly acute where it is technically possible for an individual to alter some of the factors used socially or legally to determine sexual identity. This paper analyses these difficulties, both from the situation of endocrine disorder and with respect to gender identity. It argues that this distinction in approach may not be a valid basis for different legal treatment. It considers four major issues: the stage at which a change of gender should be recognised; any preconditions to which a legal change of gender should be made subject; whether legal recognition should be made for all purposes or only for specific areas of the law; and the confidentiality of a person's previous sexual identity. The paper particularly analyses the law in the United Kingdom and then considers other jurisdictions before focusing on the treatment of transsexuals under the European Convention on Human Rights.     

American education: the challenge of change

The American education system is being challenged to raise the academic achievement of students to prepare them for the jobs of the future. Yet many demographic, as well as economic and social factors, are making the task more difficult. Low birth rates, especially among non-Hispanic whites, along with high immigration rates, have increased the share of minority and non-English students in public schools. The rise in single-parent families has increased the number of poor students and migration from the cities to the suburbs has concentrated poor and minority students in inner city schools. These same children will make up a greater share of the future labor force. At the same time, the aging of the general population may lessen the commitment of homeowners- -whose taxes pay between 1/3 and 1/2 of education costs. The aging labor force may bring a shortage of qualified teachers, particularly in specialized subject areas. Poor and minority students generally have below average academic skills and are more likely to drop out of high school than non-minority students. However, the skills of American students rank below those of most other industrialized nations, calling into question the ability of Americans to succeed in an increasingly international economic system. How can schools be improved and minority student achievement be enhanced? Reforms of education finance systems, court-ordered integration, and stiffer requirements for teachers and for graduation from high school are among many attempts to meet the immense challenges faced by American schools.     

Recovering event histories by cubic spline interpolation

If event data are recorded in discrete intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by 2 recent US censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to adjust US age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970 censuses.     

The Argument from Overpopulation—Logical and Ethical Considerations

A traditional subject for discussion in population debates is whether the world or any subdivisions of it are overpopulated. Some proclaim that we are indeed in a state of overpopulation, while others persistently deny this claim. However, statements which proclaim or deny overpopulation are almost never accompanied by satisfactory definitions as to what overpopulation means. This is most unsatisfactory, especially because whether or not overpopulation is a fact is often claimed to be crucial when it comes to the justification of population political recommendations. This article considers an argument from overpopulation, according to which overpopulation justifies policies which reduce population size; and an argument against overpopulation, according to which the fact that present problems can be handled without population reductions establishes that there is no state of overpopulation. Both arguments are rejected by clarifying possible definitions of overpopulation.     

An evaluation of the performance of kernel estimators for graduating mortality data

In the graduation of the age-specific mortality pattern, recent emphasis has been placed on the use of kernel regression estimators. Three such estimators are the Nadaraya-Watson, Gasser-Muller and kernel weighted local linear estimators. This paper discusses the theoretical background of each estimator and evaluates their accuracy in graduating age-specific mortality using data for France, Japan and Sweden. For comparison, we also fit the Heligman-Pollard model and its nine-parameter variant by Kostaki. The Gasser-Muller estimator is found to be superior to the two other kernel estimators in that it is both more stable and not influenced by boundary effects. Furthermore, compared with the two parametrric models, the Gasser-Muller estimator provides a more satisfactory graduation, especially at older adult ages, in terms both of smoothness and of fidelity between the observed and graduated rates.     

“But we still try”: affective labor in the corporate mommy blog

This article studies three “mommy blogs,” online platforms catering to (in these cases) American mothers of various sub-demographics, through an affective labor framework. Using digital labor and Althusserian subject formation to inform my reading of the common rhetorical gestures made in these blogs, I ask how they conceive of their readership and contributors. I argue that mommy blogs should be understood as sites of digital labor because of the ways in which their publishing conditions and rhetorics establish labored expectations of the “mommy” subject. Contestations of the nature of affective labor in motherhood are reflected by anxieties around digital labor, which play out via ideological conflicts that manifest rhetorically in the blogs under discussion. This analysis is informed by affect theory, Althusser and Butler’s work on subject formation, and the existing feminist literature on digital labor and the mommy blog.     

Contraceptive overlap with post-partum anovularity

Abstract Contraceptive use in the early post-partum months is, for the majority of women, without any direct protective value because, whilst not ovulating, they are not exposed to the risk of pregnancy. This does not, of course, imply that contraception should be delayed until signs of the resumption of ovulation appear, as for many women the first sign of such resumption is pregnancy. There are, besides, logistic and psychological reasons which make early post-partum contraception advisable. It does, however, demand that any calculation of the demographic effects of contraceptive use should make due allowance for this null period of use.     

Contraceptive overlap with post-partum anovularity

Contraceptive use in the early post-partum months is, for the majority of women, without any direct protective value because, whilst not ovulating, they are not exposed to the risk of pregnancy. This does not, of course, imply that contraception should be delayed until signs of the resumption of ovulation appear, as for many women the first sign of such resumption is pregnancy. There are, besides, logistic and psychological reasons which make early post-partum contraception advisable. It does, however, demand that any calculation of the demographic effects of contraceptive use should make due allowance for this null period of use.     

Simulated employment interviews: A collaborative approach to gaining understanding of the graduate midwife employment process

Graduating midwives unsuccessful in gaining employment in their preferred model/location; or finding a job within a year of graduation are more likely to leave the profession. Obtaining post-graduate midwifery employment is competitive with midwifery students needing to confidently sell themselves to potential employers. Whilst midwifery students may be prepared with the requisite midwifery skills and knowledge, there is no guarantee of attaining a midwifery position upon graduation. Increasingly employers are requiring ‘soft skills’ including communication, teamwork, reflexivity and personal attributes of the individual to be able to effectively respond within different contexts. Demonstrating these skills within an employment interview requires confidence and knowledge in how to prepare. Designed with health service partners, simulated employment interviews were introduced into the final year of a Bachelor of Midwifery program as part of a suite of employability strategies connected to the student lifecycle. An exploratory evaluation study of students ‘experiences of a simulated employment interview was undertaken. The simulated interview emulated real employment interviews with students receiving immediate written and oral feedback. Evaluation through surveys, focus groups and individual interviews provided rich data around the effectiveness of this approach. Students, health service partners and academics found the simulated employment interview provided a valuable learning experience, assisting students to reflect, explore and further develop skills sought by employers. Collaboration with health service partners created an authentic process enabling students to receive feedback relevant to the real world of practice. Students were able to work through anxiety, gain confidence and exposure to employers in preparation for employment interviews.     

"Katiwala": trustee of community health

The setting up of a medical cooperative in a squatter community in Davao City, Philippines, and the training of women from the community to serve as paramedical health visitors and family planning workers, is described. The clinic charges each family a small fee and sells drugs at cost. The health visitor program was initiated by the poor families themselves to reach those who could not come to the clinic. The 1st groups trained chose the name Kaunaunahang Katiwala ng Kalusugan, or First Trustees of Health, and they are called katiwala for short. Since 1973 about 80 of these women, usually about 30 years of age, with home and family responsibilities, and of low educational background, have bee n trained. The dialogic method of Paolo Fraire of Brazil is used, which focuses on the native intelligence of the student and emphasizes a mutual learning process on the part of both teacher and student. Upon graduation the katiwala take care of minor ailments, refer major problems to the clinic, distribute family planning information, and encourage sanitation and good health practices. The barrios are divided into districts and 2 katiwala assigned to each. They receive some compensation. The program has proved it is possible to train persons with little education to be effective health workers and free physicians and nurses for more serious cases.     

Age patterns of marriage

Abstract In different populations there is a common curve describing first-marriage frequency (first marriages per woman) as a function of age for each cohort. To fit the variety of patterns of human nuptiality it suffices to choose the age that serves as origin for a standard curve of first-marriage frequency, and to choose appropriate horizontal and vertical scales for the curve. The prevalence of a standard form for first-marriage frequency implies that the proportion ever-married in any cohort also rises along a standard curve, subject to choice of origin (the earliest age of first marriage), vertical scale (the proportion ever-marrying by the end of life), and horizontal scale (the pace at which the proportion ever-married increases with age). A mathematical expression (a double exponential) is found to fit the risk offirst marriage (among those who ever marry), and some of the implications of uniform features of nuptiality in different populations are discussed.