Proximate determinants of Philippine fertility: 1983 levels and patterns

Data from the 1983 National Demographic Survey are used to analyze the proximate determinants of Philippine fertility in each of the 3 stages of family formation and to identify all of the direct and indirect factors affecting fertility levels and trends. 10,843 ever-married women and 12,771 children were included. The analysis pertains first to the starting patterns of family formation, the age at first birth, and the proximate determinants (age at menarche, age at first marriage/union, conception before first birth, fetal wastage first birth, interval between first marriage and first birth). Further analysis examines birth spacing patterns including the postpartum nonsusceptible period, the exposure interval and stopping patterns. Almost all births occur within marriage, and childbearing begins late at 22.5 years. However, 15.4% of first births are conceived premaritally. The mean age at first birth increases from younger to older cohorts. Urban women were slightly older (23.0 years) at the birth of their first child. Those with education below the 4th grade had first births 3.5 years earlier. Contraceptive use was low at 1.8% before first birth. Younger cohorts were more likely to use birth control and urban wives were more likely to use it than rural wives. 6.4% reported a first pregnancy ending in nonlive births, which were primarily spontaneous abortions (5.2%), stillbirths (1.0%), and induced abortions (.2%). 5.8% report never having been pregnant and 1.1% never having given birth to a live-born child. 20.4% were childless between the ages of 15-24 years, and 4.6% between 25-34 years. Childlessness was slightly higher among urban women (7.1%) than rural women (6.7%). A decreasing age at menarche has appeared; i.e., 13.6 years for the cohort 15-24 years, and 14.0 for the oldest cohort. By age 15, 82.9% had begun menstruating. The mean age at marriage is early at 20.7 years, and older cohorts tended to marry later at 21.4 years. Urban women marry a year later (21.4 years) than rural women. Lower educated women marry 4 years earlier. The mean length between first marriage and first birth was 18.4 months. In the younger cohorts, spacing patterns are shorter. Postpartum susceptibility is short. Return to sexual relations after a birth occurred at 2.8 months. The exposure time required to conceive is fairly long at 16.6 months and is attributed to contraceptive use, since coital frequency is high and temporary separation is infrequent. The average age at last birth is late at 37.6 years.     

What’s happening to the age at first birth in the United States? A study of recent cohorts

This paper analyzes cross-cohort trends in the age pattern of women at first birth in the United States. The analysis involves fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to the age distribution of first birth frequencies for a number of recent white and nonwhite cohorts. Methodologically, the results (a) provide support for the application of the Coale-McNeil marriage model to first birth data, and (b) demonstrate the ability of the model to accurately project first birth fertility for cohorts which have yet to complete their childbearing years. Substantively the results indicate (a) that the proportion of women who will never have a first birth is increasing across cohorts and can be expected to be as high as .25 and .20 for recent white and nonwhite cohorts respectively; (b) that recent nonwhite cohorts have an appreciable number of first births at earlier ages than their white counterparts, as well as a lower mean age at first birth and increasingly less dispersion (across cohorts) in their age at first birth; and (c) that the mean age at first birth and the proportion of first births occurring between ages 25 and 34 is increasing across cohorts of white women but is stable across cohorts of nonwhite women.     

A survey of China's birth control among women of child-bearing age

To further implement China's family planning policy of "prevention first, birth control first," a study of the current family planning situation was conducted. A survey of the birth control methods employed by women of childbearing age and by men was based on a nationwide randomized sampling of 1/1000. In the different age groups, ranging from 15-49 years old, IUD users accounted for over 50%, tubal sterilization 25%, and vasectomy 10%. The main IUD users were women in the 20-24 age group. Tubal sterilization was more prevalent among the women in the 35-39 age group. The use of oral contraceptives (OCs) was more common among younger women but accounted for less than 10% of the total. The survey was based on the replies to questionnaires from 172,788 married women of childbearing age; 120,022 of them practiced contraceptive methods for a birth control rate of 69.46%. The breakdown was as follows: IUD, 34.84%; tubal sterilization, 17.63%; vasectomy, 6.94%; OCs, 5.86%; condom users, 1.39%; and other methods (including chemical suppositories, rhythm, or safe period method and withdrawal before ejaculation), 2.78%. There was a higher percentage of OC users in urban areas, and a marked preference for IUDs in the rural communities. The rural birth control rate was 68.58%; the urban rate was 74.17%. The use of the IUD has priority in all the areas; its percentage approaches the national average level. The use of vasectomy as a birth control method varies considerably according to area as does the use of OCs, condom, and tubal sterilization. Rural minority groups prefer the IUD and OCs; tubal sterilization, the condom, and vasectomy are preferred by the Han nationality. The birth control rate differed according to the different occoupation groups: 77.85%, workers; 76.01%, farmers; 85.15%, cadres; 59.52%, housewives; and 66.67%, others. The birth control rate was higher among those who received a college education than the illiterates, but statistics did not show a significant difference in the rate of those with a high school education and the illiterates. Mothers of 0-1 children generally preferred OCs; tubal sterilization was preferred by mothers with 2-3 children. The nonusers of contraception accounted for 30.54% among married women of childbearing age. A breakdown gives the following figures: menopause and infertility, 6.17%; divorced and widowed, 1.64%; planned parenthood, 10.51%; nonusers who should have practiced contraception, 12.22%. On a national level, the estimated number of nonusers of contraception among those who should be practicing contraception comes to about 20,000,000 women.     

Birth spacing and fertility limitation: a behavioral analysis of a nineteenth century frontier population

Our analysis of changing birth interval distributions over the course of a fertility transition from natural to controlled fertility has examined three closely related propositions. First, within both natural fertility populations (identified at the aggregate level) and cohorts following the onset of fertility limitation, we hypothesized that substantial groups of women with long birth intervals across the individually specified childbearing careers could be identified. That is, even during periods when fertility behavior at the aggregate level is consistent with a natural fertility regime, birth intervals at all parities are inversely related to completed family size. Our tabular analysis enables us to conclude that birth spacing patterns are parity dependent; there is stability in CEB-parity specific mean and birth interval variance over the entire transition. Our evidence does not suggest that the early group of women limiting and spacing births was marked by infecundity. Secondly, the transition appears to be associated with an increasingly larger proportion of women shifting to the same spacing schedules associated with smaller families in earlier cohorts. Thirdly, variations in birth spacing by age of marriage indicate that changes in birth intervals over time are at least indirectly associated with age of marriage, indicating an additional compositional effect. The evidence we have presented on spacing behavior does not negate the argument that parity-dependent stopping behavior was a powerful factor in the fertility transition. Our data also provide evidence of attempts to truncate childbearing. Specifically, the smaller the completed family size, the longer the ultimate birth interval; and ultimate birth intervals increase across cohorts controlling CEB and parity. But spacing appears to represent an additional strategy of fertility limitation. Thus, it may be necessary to distinguish spacing and stopping behavior if one wishes to clarify behavioral patterns within a population (Edlefsen, 1981; Friedlander et al., 1980; Rodriguez and Hobcraft, 1980). Because fertility transition theories imply increased attempts to limit family sizes, it is important to examine differential behavior within subgroups achieving different family sizes. It is this level of analysis which we have attempted to achieve in utilizing parity-specific birth intervals controlled by children ever born.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors

A large body of literature has demonstrated a positive relationship between education and age at first birth. However, this relationship may be partly spurious because of family background factors that cannot be controlled for in most research designs. We investigate the extent to which education is causally related to later age at first birth in a large sample of female twins from the United Kingdom (N = 2,752). We present novel estimates using within–identical twin and biometric models. Our findings show that one year of additional schooling is associated with about one-half year later age at first birth in ordinary least squares (OLS) models. This estimate reduced to only a 1.5-month later age at first birth for the within–identical twin model controlling for all shared family background factors (genetic and family environmental). Biometric analyses reveal that it is mainly influences of the family environment—not genetic factors—that cause spurious associations between education and age at first birth. Last, using data from the Office for National Statistics, we demonstrate that only 1.9 months of the 2.74 years of fertility postponement for birth cohorts 1944–1967 could be attributed to educational expansion based on these estimates. We conclude that the rise in educational attainment alone cannot explain differences in fertility timing between cohorts.     

A Family planning survey in four Delhi villages

A family planning attitude survey was conducted in four villages near metropolitan Delhi. Information was obtained through questionnaires from 455 currently married females of reproductive age: Of the women interviewed, 50 per cent were aware of family planning, 19 per cent had knowledge of a method and only 3 per cent used birth control methods. The method most commonly practised was prolonged lactation. Of the women interviewed, 253 were willing to learn about family planning; they said there was little opposition from their family members. These women thought that a family should have four children, and spacing between them should be roughly four years.     

Female sterilizing operations in New South Wales: A demographic perspective

This paper examines trends in female sterilizing operations from a demographic perspective. These operations have declined in New South Wales since 1981, with a substantial drop in tubal ligation and hysterectomy, particularly among younger women. The decline in sterilization of women of childbearing age has been due to postponement of births. Younger women have avoided terminal methods of birth control and continued to use methods, such as oral contraceptives and back-up abortion, which allow for a pregnancy at a later age. Sterilizing operations still remain the most commonly reported means of birth control by women over age 35.     

Family growth and family planning: Responses to a family-planning action program in a rural district of Thailand

A resurvey of a rural district in Thailand, of about 70,000 population, was conducted after a family-planning program had been in operation for eight months in order to ascertain indications of effectiveness of the program. Both the "before" and "after" surveys employed a 25 percent simple random, though non-overlapping, sample of married women 20-44 years of age whose husbands were living. The only difference in design and execution was the inclusion in the resurvey of questions about the action program. Barring one or two exceptions, the characteristics of the two population samples were so similar that differences in knowledge, attitudes, and practices could be regarded as effects of the program.The action program not only made itself widely known in the district, it also evoked a highly favorable appraisal, to such an extent that nine of every ten women thought the program should be extended over the entire kingdom. Motivation to engage in family planning increased perceptibly. A substantial proportion (23 percent) of the women who formerly disapproved of the practice changed their attitudes to approval, mainly because they had become convinced of the harmlessness and the utility of fertility control. Less than 3 percent of the former approvers had become negative.The proportion of women who claimed some kind of knowledge about contraceptive methods more than doubled during the eight months of the program's operation. More impressive, however, was the change in actual use of methods, which rose from 1 to 21 percent of the eligible women (women who were not pregnant, subfecund, or sterilized). Another 16 percent, in the resurvey, planned to begin use of contraceptives in the near future, in most instances after a current pregnancy. The frequency of acceptance of family planning practice exceeded the expected frequency among women who were approaching or had attained the "ideal" number of children (4.0 children). High-parity women 40 or more years of age seldom accepted clinical assistance.     

广东妇女文化素质与生育水平分析

对于不同文化程度的育龄妇女,其生育观念,优生节育知识及在社会和家庭中的角色地位等都存在较大差异,进而影响其生育水平。本文从妇女的婚育年龄,总和生育率,活产子女,生育孩次构成等方面,来分析广东妇女文化素质与生育水平的关系。     

Long-term economic consequences for women of delayed childbearing and reduced family size

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study explored the association among delayed childbearing, completed family size and several measures of the economic well-being of women age 60 and older in 1976. By retirement age women who bore their first child at age 30 or older are significantly better off economically than either average-age childbearers or the childless. Economic well-being also appears to be related to family size among late childbearers. At retirement age the delayed childbearer with only one or two children appears better off than all other women. Thus, late childbearing and small family size appear associated with the highest standard of living for these women. This study also relates the experience of this early cohort of women to that of more recent birth cohorts.     

A cohort analysis of the timing of first birth and fertility in Ghana

This paper examines the nature of the inverse association between age at first birth and fertility across successive generations of Ghanaian women. Within the context of enhanced non-marital opportunities for contemporary women and declining fertility, we develop a rationale for and test the hypothesis that in a medium fertility environment as currently found in Ghana, the effect of age at first birth on fertility becomes more important than ever before. Five birth cohorts were identified (1938–1944; 1945–1949;1950–1954; 1955–1959; 1960–1964)from a merged file of the 1988, 1993 and 1998 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. The analyses were restricted to women over 35 years old at the time of the surveys, which allowed us to use current parity as a reasonable proxy for completed fertility. Preliminary results suggest that women who had first births early tend to have a higher number of births than those whose first births occur late, regardless of birth cohort. In multivariate analyses, the effect of age at first birth as a determinant of fertility was found to be more substantial among later cohorts. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

On Postponement and Birth Intervals

Much of the literature on fertility transition presumes that birth control is practiced either to limit family size or to space births. This article argues that women also use birth control to postpone pregnancy. Postponement is not synonymous with spacing. It arises when women delay their next birth for indefinite periods for reasons unrelated to the age of their youngest child, but without deciding not to have any more children. Postponement has a distinctive impact on the shape of birth‐interval distributions that differs from the impacts of family size limitation, birth spacing, or a mixture of the two behaviors. Some populations, such as that in South Africa, have developed fertility regimes characterized by birth intervals far longer than can be accounted for by birth spacing. Postponement of further childbearing that eventually becomes permanent may be an important driver of the transition to lower fertility in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Family Planning and Child Health Care: Effect of the Peruvian Programa de Salud Reproductiva y Planificación Familiar, 1996–2000

Our study estimates the effects of exposure to a family planning program which promoted surgical contraception for the first time in Peru on women's use of birth control methods and their children's health. While a broad program, the Programa de Salud Reproductiva y Planificación Familiar forced many indigenous women to undergo sterilization. We compare provinces affected by the program earlier with provinces affected later, before and after the policy. Overall, the results indicate that women in treated areas were more likely to use both temporary and permanent contraceptive methods and their children were less likely to die within their first year of life, partly due to longer breastfeeding. However, we observe heterogeneity by ethnicity. In treated provinces, nonindigenous children benefited from the policy regardless of their mothers’ choice of contraceptive method, while there were few positive impacts for indigenous children whose mothers underwent sterilization. This suggests that coercive or aggressively implemented family planning programs may not confer health benefits on children.     

The family planning work in Yiyang prefecture as suggested by part of the data of the sample fertility survey]

The National Committee on Family Planning conducted a sample survey of fertility in the Yi-yang area in September 1982. The survey was focused on the marriage and fertility status of women between the ages of 15 and 67. Results from this survey show that early marriage is still very popular. Only 40% of those surveyed delayed their marriage to a later age. There is a need to educate the people on the benefits of late marriage. In addition, statistics show that the average fertility rate for a woman was 6.8 children in 1970 and 2.35 children in 1982. This recent figure is still too high when compared with the under 1.2 figure suggested by the central government. Among the total number surveyed, only 77% have taken birth control measures, and the other 23% still have not taken any birth control measures. The phenomenon shows that popular education on late marriage and having children at a later age is still urgently needed in order to further reduce the fertility rate. Married couples of childbearing age should be taught effective birth control measures and knowledge of eugenics with better education for the next generation. In this way, the masses may participate actively and positively in the national family planning campaign.     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

The international family planning movement

Over the past 3 decades, the number of women using family planning has increased 6-fold to over 400 million married women of childbearing age. The evolution of behavior and attitudes toward using birth control among third world couples reflects the goals and hard work of an international network of individuals, governments and organizations. This article follows the progression of this movement, from early opposition in developed as well as developing countries, to the present day, when birth control is practiced by a slight majority of the world's women of childbearing age. Among world regions, contraceptive use ranges from about 17% in Africa to 75% in Asia. In some African countries, however, family planning is still a foreign concept, and fewer than 5% of women use any birth control. International organizations played a crucial role in spread of family planning by providing training for developing country professionals, funding actual family planning programs and helping to evaluate programs. But the success of a country's family planning program also was dependent upon a national commitment, and often on a strong socioeconomic setting. The private sector has had a limited role except in some countries, notably in Latin America, but its involvement is likely to expand in the future. Also, as financial support from the US and international organizations wanes, national governments will cover a larger share of the cost. The worldwide increase in the practice of family planning has led to fertility declines in many third world countries, slowing rapid population growth rates. For individuals, family planning has been a liberating influence, allowing them to participate more fully in the shift from traditional to modern society.     

The initiation of contraception

Using data from the 1970 National Fertility Study, the trend in the initiation of contraception prior to the first pregnancy is examined. This trend is of interest because of its relationship to the tempo of familybuilding. Using data from a recent marriage cohort, it is shown that use before the first pregnancy is related to age at marriage, age at termination of first pregnancy and the probability of having a premarital conception. For women first married during the decade of the 1960’s, there was a substantial increase in the proportion using contraception before the first pregnancy. This trend is found among both white Catholics and white non-Catholics, but not among blacks. An examination of the specific method used by women using contraception before the first pregnancy reveals a shift from reliance on the traditional methods of diaphragm, condom and douche by the earlier birth cohorts to the use of the pill by the more recent cohorts. An appendix examines the reliability of various measures of the interval of first use of contraception.     

Intergenerational Transmission of Age at First Birth in the United States: Evidence from Multiple Surveys

It is well established that the timing of childbearing is transmitted from parents to children in the United States. However, little is known about how the intergenerational link has changed over time and under structural and ideological transformations associated with fertility behaviors. This study first considers changes across two birth cohorts from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) in the extent to which parents’ age at first birth is transmitted to their children. The first cohort includes individuals born during the late 1950s through the early 1960s (NLSY79), while the second includes individuals born in the early 1980s (NLSY97). Results from discrete-time event history analyses indicate that the intergenerational transmission of age at first birth significantly increased for both daughters and sons. These results were confirmed by analyses of data from three cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth spanning the same time period. Over this period, age at first childbirth became increasingly younger for children born to teenage mothers and increasingly older for those born to mothers who began parenthood after age 25. These patterns have important implications for the reproductive polarization hypothesis.     

Abortion and family building models: Fertility limitation in Hungary

This paper demonstrates how family-building models can be used for checking the quality of abortion data. A family-building model, called FERMODA, is presented and used to check whether the available data on abortion for Hungary are consistent with Hungarian data on other aspects of family building. Model cohorts are generated, using in FERMODA the proportions of women married and the birth and abortion rates of two selected Hungarian cohorts. The estimates obtained from the simulated cohorts concerning use of contraception are compared with the information available on contraception, and, on the basis of this comparison, a judgment is made about the quality of abortion data for Hungary.     

Age at last birth and its components

This paper examines the ways in which the behavior of twentieth century cohorts of American women changed simultaneously in the three components of fertility that determine age at last birth--age at first birth, spacing between subsequent births, and parity progression ratios of subsequent births--to produce changes in the timing of the completion of childbearing. It decomposes changes in the mean age at last birth among cohorts and between whites and nonwhites to changes in these three components. To perform these analyses, we developed and applied a method to estimate the distributions and means of ages and last births, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios from age- and parity-specific fertility rates available from vital statistics data. Results show that the cohorts increased and decreased their age at first birth, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios of lower and higher birth orders in almost every possible combination so as to achieve a relatively young age at final birth.