反思当前城镇化发展中的五种偏向

城镇化是关系中国经济发展转型的重大战略问题。文章认为未来中国城镇化可持续发展须坚持城镇化与工业化、农业现代化及信息化的"四化协调"原则,分析了中国城镇化过程中的五大偏向问题,提出实现中国城镇化可持续发展需要实施均衡城镇化发展模式、解决城市政府对土地财政的过度依赖问题、鼓励农民工家庭式迁移和就近转移、推进农民工与市民的平权、改变各城市在GDP上的恶性竞争局面。     

人口城市化空间路径的理论与研究及其启示

城市化的实践进程表明,一个国家的人口城市化往往遵循"城市化—郊区化—逆城市化—再城市化"或者"大城市—中等城市—小城市"的空间路径而展开。文章对"空间循环假说"、ROXY指数方法、"区域城市化"概念以及"差别城市化理论"等人口城市化空间路径理论的演绎进行了梳理,并对国内外相关研究进行了总结。结合中国人口城市化进程特点,文章认为,人口城市化空间路径理论与研究对中国城市化的道路模式、区域规划以及都市圈与城市群区域人口城市化问题的研究有启示作用。     

吉林省人口城市化与经济发展相关分析研究

城市化是当今世界最重要的经济现象和社会现象之一,其水平的高低已成为衡量一个国家或地区经济发展水平的重要标志。人口城市化是现代城市成长的前提和基础。因此,研究人口城市化与经济发展关系对一国或一地区的发展意义重大。通过多年统计数据的相关分析得出吉林省人口城市化超前于经济发展的结论,在此基础上,分析了这种现象产生的原因并提出协调人口城市化与经济发展的对策。     

未来全国和不同区域人口城镇化水平预测

城镇化将是我国未来几十年社会经济发展的动力之一。从人口学的角度讲,在加速城镇化过程中,人口三大因素,即出生、死亡、迁移的变化中,人口城乡迁移将是核心问题。本文在城镇化发展的中方案假设下,利用ⅡASA的模型对全国和地区未来30年人口城镇化水平进行预测。结果显示了全国和不同区域的城镇化长期趋势;揭示了城乡间的迁移和农村居民身份的改变,是城镇地区人口高速增长的重要因素。伴随城镇化的加速,农村地区人口老龄化速度快于城市。     

Urbanization as a Global Historical Process: Theory and Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa

Urbanization has traditionally been understood as a byproduct of economic development, but this explanatory framework fails to account for the phenomenon of “urbanization without growth” observed in sub‐Saharan Africa throughout the 1980s and 1990s. In light of this apparent anomaly, I argue that urbanization is better understood as a global historical process driven by population dynamics associated with technological and institutional innovations that have substantially improved disease control and food security in urban settlements across the globe. These innovations first emerged in Europe in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and were subsequently diffused through colonialism, trade, and international development assistance. A range of qualitative and quantitative evidence is presented to demonstrate that this historically grounded theory of urbanization offers a more convincing explanation for the stylized facts of Africa's urban transition—and hence the process of world urbanization more broadly—than the traditional economic account.     

中国人口城市化综述

人口城市化在国家社会经济全面发展过程中具有重要作用。21世纪的中国人口城市化正在进入新的发展阶段。随着我国农村生产力水平的提高、工业化进程的加快和产业结构调整的深化,全面推进城市化的条件已经基本成熟。推进中国人口城市化,必须在我国现行城市化方针指导下,既研究世界城市化进程的一般规律,借鉴国际经验;又要结合我国城市化面临的现实国情和基本问题,逐步形成合理的城镇体系,走出符合我国国情,大、中、小城市协调发展的城市化道路。积极稳妥地推进中国人口城市化,实施可持续发展的城市化战略,也是全面建设小康社会的根本要求。     

西部地区城市化动力机制的构建

城市化是一个经济、社会、生态和文化诸方面全面转变的动态过程,是人类生活方式、生产方式和居住方式全面转变的过程。本文拟从城市化的涵义出发,简要分析过去中国城市化过程的演进机制,同时认为,在现阶段西部城市化应以创新为起点,其动力有主动力(产业的空间聚集及其现代化)和从动力(如外资的带动、政府行为、人的主体因素影响)之分,从而提出城市化的动力系统框架和机制。     

Energy consumption patterns in the process of China’s urbanization

Urbanization has transformed daily lives and industrial production in China. We investigate the effects of this process on Chinese energy consumption patterns. Three energy-consuming sectors intricately associated with urbanization are identified and analyzed: residential households, transportation, and the building materials industry. Urbanization has profoundly affected each; moreover, the latter two are high energy consumption and potentially high carbon producing. We estimate energy consumption attributable to each sector to quantitatively evaluate their impacts on societal transition. Transportation and the production of building materials are identified as the most significant linkages from urbanization to energy consumption. Strikingly, despite the large increase in the proportion of the population that is urban, the share of urban energy consumption, as estimated here, in total energy consumption has remained stable. This suggests that economic growth, in the form of the production of goods for export and domestic consumption, is the most important driver of energy demand in China.     

区域城镇化进程与产业结构变迁动态影响分析--基于甘肃省的VAR分析

区域城镇化进程和产业结构变迁作为经济发展的重要方面,二者在经济发展过程中的存在着动态关联影响。基于甘肃省2000—2011年的时间序列数据,构建了城镇化和产业结构的VAR模型,实证分析了甘肃省城镇化进程和产业结构变迁间的动态影响,并从空间上对二者的相互影响进行了把握,得出甘肃省城镇化进程和产业结构变迁之间是动态影响的,但产业结构变迁对城镇化进程的影响强于城镇化进程对产业结构变迁的影响,在此基础上给出了措施建议。     

延边城市化发展问题及对策

城市化是一个人类社会发展的共同规律。延边已经基本完成了城市化的任务,但高水平的城市化背后存在着与经济发展阶段不相适应的问题。为此应充分发挥延边中心城市的聚集极化功能,以提高延边城市化的质量。     

设市的战略布局与我国城市化的地区差异

城市化是一个极其复杂的过程 ,其影响机制很多 ,但是我国政府干预是城市化地区差异产生的一个非常重要的因素。政府通过干预经济产生地区差异 ,间接影响城市化发展 ;通过干预城市设置 ,进行设市战略布局的调整 ,直接影响我国城市化水平地区差异     

我国人才集聚与城市化水平互动关系的建模研究

城市化进程推动人才集聚水平不断提升,为人才集聚提供了重要平台;人才集聚是城市化水平提升不可或缺的动力和必然结果。我国人才集聚与城市化之间互动关系的量化研究需要借助模型工具,通过对模型信息的深入挖掘．从城市化六大要素角度提出促进我国人才集聚发展的可行性建议。     

Urbanization, non-familial work, education, and fertility in Taiwan

Abstract It is well known, that there is a relationship between the level of development of a society and its level offertility.(1) However, it is not clear which of the complex ofvariables associated with development are primarily associated with the reduction of fertility. Urbanization, female labour force participation and education are three of the variables most commonly cited as bearing a causal relationship to fertility. Urbanization implies a change of environment of a substantial portion of the population which may result in a change in the value placed on large families. This is particularly true when urban mortality is lower than rural, so that more children survive.(2) However, it has also been argued that urbanization results in a change in family structure from the extended to the nuclear family with a concomitant reduction in the value placed on having many children.(3) Additional changes in family patterns which are sometimes said to explain fertility reduction due to urbanization are increases in the proportion of women never marrying and increases in the age at marriage.     

人口老龄化对城乡统筹发展的影响与对策探析

城镇化加速人口老龄化,人口老龄化影响城镇化进程。在人口老龄化和城镇化交织影响下,我国农村人口老龄化发展迅速,其老龄化水平远高于城镇,这将给我国新农村建设、农村社会保障、城乡协调发展等方面带来不同程度的冲击和挑战。应该按照城乡发展一体化要求,积极推进适应人口老龄化的新型城镇化,培育新型农业发展方式,推进以城支农的新农村建设,统筹城乡就业以改善农村老年人从事经济活动的条件。     

中国未来二十年城镇化区域格局展望

本文从我国城镇化区域格局的发展态势出发 ,结合我国人口、经济等各种生产要素的配置 ,提出在未来二十年我国城镇化的区域格局将呈现以下特点 :东部仍将成为我国城镇化快速推进的高水平地区 ;我国城镇化水平将形成沿海省份高 ,北部边疆省份、京广沿线省份相对较高的局面 ;我国若干局部地区将形成国家意义的大型城镇密集地区。     

山东城市化发展策略

本文在总结、分析了当前山东省城市化发展的现状的基础上,提出了山东省城市化发展所面临的问题及相应对策。     

中国人口城镇化战略研究

文章重点分析人口城镇化的中国特色;在对人口城镇化未来发展趋势判断的基础上,提出具体的战略目标、路径和举措。研究表明,人口城镇化将成为我国未来社会发展的基本国情,将对未来繁荣发展的源泉和动力产生重大影响;目前中国人口城镇化面临滞后于工业化、土地城镇化,户籍人口城镇化滞后于常住人口城镇化等问题;"十二五"期间中国人口城镇化发展方向将由单纯速度向速度与质量并重转变,改革进入以推进深度人口城镇化为特征、促进城乡一体化的新阶段;需要把人口城镇化作为深化改革的主导力量,以扩大城镇就业、户籍制度改革为基本导向,大力提高人口城镇化水平和质量,推动城乡公共服务均等化,走出一条中国特色人口城镇化道路。     

Urbanization,non-familial work,education, and fertility in Taiwan

It is well known, that there is a relationship between the level of development of a society and its level offertility.¹ However, it is not clear which of the complex ofvariables associated with development are primarily associated with the reduction of fertility. Urbanization, female labour force participation and education are three of the variables most commonly cited as bearing a causal relationship to fertility. Urbanization implies a change of environment of a substantial portion of the population which may result in a change in the value placed on large families. This is particularly true when urban mortality is lower than rural, so that more children survive.² However, it has also been argued that urbanization results in a change in family structure from the extended to the nuclear family with a concomitant reduction in the value placed on having many children.³ Additional changes in family patterns which are sometimes said to explain fertility reduction due to urbanization are increases in the proportion of women never marrying and increases in the age at marriage.     

Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution

This study adds to the emerging literature examining empirically the link between population size, other demographic factors and pollution. We contribute by using more reliable estimation techniques and examine two air pollutants. By considering sulfur dioxide, we become the first study to explicitly examine the impact of demographic factors on a pollutant other than carbon dioxide at the cross-national level. We also take into account the urbanization rate and the average household size neglected by many prior cross-national econometric studies. For carbon dioxide emissions we find evidence that population increases are matched by proportional increases in emissions while a higher urbanization rate and lower average household size increase emissions. For sulfur dioxide emissions, we find a U-shaped relationship, with the population-emissions elasticity rising at higher population levels. Urbanization and average household size are not found to be significant determinants of sulfur dioxide emissions. For both pollutants, our results suggest that an increasing share of global emissions will be accounted for by developing countries. Implications for the environmental Kuznets curve literature are described and directions for further work identified.     

中国城市化波动的解释:工业化波动和服务化波动的冲击

文章利用消除趋势法得到的城市化、工业化和服务化的周期成分度量城市化、工业化和服务化的波动,并简要分析了中国城市化、工业化和服务化的波动特点。研究结果表明,中国城市化波动可以划分为6个不同的发展阶段;工业化波动最为剧烈,服务化波动最为平缓,城市化波动介于二者之间;城市化波动滞后于服务化波动,服务化波动滞后于工业化波动;城市化波动主要源于自身波动的冲击,工业化波动和服务化波动冲击的影响较小;城市化波动分别对工业化波动和服务化波动的脉冲响应曲线均为明显的正弦波,但脉冲响应时滞及冲击力度明显不同;工业化波动对城市化波动具有显著的负向影响,服务化波动对城市化波动具有显著的正向影响。