The decline in occupational sex segregation during the 19705: census and cps comparisons

An assessment of changes in occupational sex segregation during the 1970s, as measured by the Census and Current Population Survey, is complicated by the recent reclassification of occupations. Once this is taken into account, it is apparent from both the Census and the CPS that there was a decline in occupational sex segregation in the 1970s and that the decline was probably more substantial than in the 1960s.     

Plans for the 1970 census of population and housing

The Nineteenth Decennial Census of the United States, covering both population and housing, will be conducted as of April 1, 1970. Planning, testing, and preparatory activities have been underway since early in the decade. Extensive discussions with users of census data led to relatively minor changes in subject content as compared to 1960, but a major increase in the amount of statistics to be tabulated, especially for small geographic areas. For about 60 to 65 percent of the population, the information will be collected through a new mail-out/mail-back system. The rest of the country will be covered by house-to-house canvass. Special efforts to alleviate the serious problem of underenumeration are being undertaken, particularly in the hard-to-enumerate portions of the big cities. The geographic program includes an “address coding guide” through which location identification in most urban areas can be made to specific side of block; this will permit tabulations for new types of small areas. Processing of the data will be performed with the Census Bureau’s Fosdic equipment and advanced computers. Dissemination of the census results will be in the traditional type of printed reports but also, in substantially greater subject and area detail, through magnetic tape, special printouts, etc. To help users exploit the potentialities of the latter material, the Bureau has instituted a “data access” informational program. As in previous censuses, there will be a number of studies to evaluate the 1970 procedures and results.     

Occupational Classification

The need for a common occupational classification system has begun to outweigh the importance of the precision of a multipurpose classification system. Recent multiplication, in government, of sources of occupational statistics, the variety of uses to which occupationally classified data are now put, and the theoretical dissatisfaction shown in recent literature make it desirable that a single, standard classification system be developed for all agencies.Work is now starting on a standard classification system (presently in the major group of professional, technical, and related workers). Although final results will not be available for use in the1970 Census, there is detailed effort to reduce the large residual census categories and to develop a more detailed list of classifications for that Census. The statistician should beaware that work is in progress on one of the classifications of growing importance to him.     

An analysis of the birth rate in the Soviet Union after World War II]

Changes in the birth rate in the USSR following World War II were studied in an effort to determine why such changes came about. Statistics show that immediately after the war, there was a short period with a high birth rate, after which the curve started to go down. In the 1950s, the rate was relatively stable, but it declined rapidly in the 1960s and reached a record low in the late 1960s. The rate started to go up in the 1970s and at present it is fluctuating at a low level. There are 2 major reasons for these changes. One fact is that the best childbearing ages are 20-29, and from 1960 to 1970, this age group declined due to the low birth rate during World War II. From 1970 to 1980, this age group grew because of the baby boom following the war. Another reason is the change in the childbearing rate of Russian women. This rate is declining for every age group. Reasons for this are: 1) the number of divorces has increased, with a remarriage rate of only 50%; 2) abortions have become more available; 3) there has been a drop in the number of families with several children; and 4) Russian women are becoming more edcated. As a rule, the better educated these women are, the fewer children they will bear. The birth rate in the USSR will remain low unless there is a change in the social structure.     

Racial inequalities in housing: An examiation of recent trends

Changes in racial differences in homeownership and objective indicators of housing quality are examined using 1960 Census data and 1977 Annual Housing Survey data. Blacks, net of differences in socioeconomic status, family composition, and regional-metropolitan location, remained less likely than whites to own homes and somewhat more likely to live in older, crowded and structurally inadequate units in 1977. In general, however, net effects for race were much smaller in 1977 than in 1960. Racial differences in homeownership and crowding were smaller among recent movers than among the total sample in 1977, suggesting continued but gradual improvement in housing conditions for blacks in the latter 1970s.     

The South African fertility decline: Evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey

Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility decline from 1955 to 1996. Having identified and adjusted for several errors in the 1996 Census data, the paper argues that total fertility at that time was 3.2 children per woman nationally, and 3.5 children per woman for African South Africans. These levels are lower than in any other sub-Saharan African country. We show also that fertility in South Africa has been falling since the 1960s. Thus, fertility transition predates the establishment of a family planning programme in the country in 1974.     

Comments on Daniel A. Seiver's 'Recent fertility in Mexico: Measurement and Interpretation.'

Abstract In a recent article in this Journal,(1)Daniel A. Seiver concludes that 'fertility' in Mexico did not decline between 1960 and 1970. His conclusion is based primarily on an increase in the child-woman ratio from 725 per 1,000 in 1960 to 762 in 1970. Seiver simply asserts that this increase cannot be completely explained by declining infant mortality and under-enumeration. (2) . (3).     

The mental health demographic profile system: A longitudinal information system

This paper presents the plans currently being developed to make the Mental Health Demographic Profile System into a longitudinal information system useful for research and program planning. Topics discussed are as follows:

1. Development of a data base that contains 1960, 1970, and 1980 small areas (census tracts, MCDs or CCDs, counties). Preliminary tables for 1960,and 1970 will be displayed. Problems of identifying constant small areas for 1960 and 1970 are discussed.
2. Items to be included in the standard profile and items to be available for use (but not part of the standard profile) are discussed.
3. Improvement of access to the data system is discussed. This includes a discussion of the interactive programs being developed and the possible transfer of service and maintenance functions (but not development functions) to the National Center for Health Statistics.

     

Trends in the relationship between socioeconomic status and infant mortality in metropolitan Ohio, 1960–1990

This paper presents the results of an ecological analysis of the relationship between infant mortality and economic status in metropolitan Ohio at four points in time centering on the censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990. The basic unit of analysis is the census tract of mother's usual residence, with economic status being determined by the percentage of low income families living in each tract. For each period, the census tracts were aggregated into broad income groups and three-year average infant mortality rates were computed for each area, by age, sex, race and exogenous-endogenous causes of death. The most important conclusion to be drawn from the data is that in spite of some very remarkable declines in infant mortality for all socioeconomic groups since 1960, there continues to be a very clear and pronounced inverse association between income status and infant mortality. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that it is stronger in 1990 than it was three decades earlier. The general inverse association is observed for both sexes, for whites and nonwhites, and for all major causes of death. At the same time, the data reveal notable variations in the pattern of the relationship over time, as well as several differences between whites and nonwhites in the nature and magnitude of the relationship. Some macro-economic hypotheses are offered to explain these temporal and racial differences in the pattern of the relationship between economic status and infant mortality.This article is an expanded version of a paper presented at the annual meetings of the Southern Demographic Association in New Orleans, 21–23 October 1993.     

Wife’s employment and cumulative family size in the United States, 1970 and 1960

Using a multiple classification analysis of the data from the I percent public-use samples of the 1960 and 1970 censuses of population, it is found that the negative relationship between wives’ employment and their cumulative family size is stronger among whites than nonwhites and is strongest among women married less than 10 years, with 12 or more years of schooling, and who have no relatives living with them. Moreover, although there are many similarities in the pattern of the employment status/fertility relationship between the 1960 and 1970 data, the relationship is weaker in 1970 than in 1960.     

U.S. population in the 21st century: Which scenario is reasonable?

A major Census Bureau study released in January 1989 has evoked renewed warnings in the media and among some population analysts that the U.S. faces population decline in the next century if it does not increase fertility and/or raise immigration. The report's middle scenario rests on an assumed future total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8, life expectancy of 81.2 years, and net immigration of 500,000 annually. These mid-range assumptions would yield a United States population of 268 million by 2000, peaking at 302 million in 2040 and falling to 292 million by 2080. Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are:

1. that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population.
2. that the high TFR of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow.
3. that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's "high" assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic.

The report's low growth scenario projects future population size that is more reassuring than alarming: 264 million in 2000, rising to 288 million in 2030, and falling to 266 million in 2080. Thus, in ninety years the United States would still have 20 million more people than now. While some fear that such slow growth will lower United States influence and bring labor shortages and an aging population, the nation's quality of life would be less at risk with a population of 266 million than with one approaching the one-half billion projected by the Census report's high estimates.     

Why do some women participate in the labor force while others stay at home?

This study analyzed data from the 1970 Korean Census to uncover the determinants of women's labor force participation (LFP) in Korea, in 1970, when industrialization was beginning and the traditional sex-roles of Confucianism prevailed. The population surveyed included urban women aged 14-65 (19,277 married, 4373 single and living with parents, and 3222 single living independently). The study began by reviewing supply side explanations for LFP by women that predict women with high earning potential are likely to participate in the labor force, and noting that this economic explanation fails to consider the effects of cultural mechanisms that emphasize female domesticity. The study then comments on the labor market structure in Korea, in 1970, that led to limited employment opportunities for women, the domestic ideology that was prevalent during the early industrial stage, and the impact of this domestic ideology on Korean women. The logistic regressions used in the analytical methodology are then described, and it is hypothesized that women will be less likely to seek employment if they have adequate family resources, they are married and have children, and they are part of an extended family. It is further hypothesized that women's education will have no significant impact on employment and that university education is important as a marriage asset. The study results support this hypothesis in regard to single women living with parents, but reveal a slight effect of education on LFP among married women.     

The counteracting influences of increased female headship and decreased number of children on inequality in economic well-being by age: 1960 to 1980

This study uses 1960, 1970, and 1980 US Census data to investigate the effects of increased female headship and decreased number of children on economic well-being. The main findings are (1) while increases in female headship lowered economic well-being, decreases in number of children raised economic well-being so that these changes had counteracting effects, and (2) age inequality in economic well-being changed because family composition changes varied in intensity by age group.     

A look at Philippine population in the year 2000

The major subject areas explored by the University of the Population Institute were fertility, mortality, the Filipino family and nuptiality, migration and urbanization, and the structure and growth of the labor force. Data were extracted primarily from the Philippine Censuses (1903-1970) the National Demographic Surveys of 1968 and 1973, and special surveys conducted by the Institute research team. On the basis of the findings, a range of alternative population futures is projected for the year 2000, with their respective policy implications. The estimate of the crude birthrate for 1970 placed the range at between 39.3 and 42.7. The crude birthrate may have declined by 21-23% in the last 70 years, and by almost 13% in 1960-1970 alone. On the national level, fertility rates will continue to decline if the trend of delayed marriages continues. Fertility was found to decrease with the introduction of the positive socioeconomic factors that make some regions more developed than others. The present low levels of mortality have decreased its importance in relation to fertility. Mortality prospects can be improved by several policy actions which are presented here in the order of priority. Current evidence points strongly to an increase in the proportion of single individuals who delay marriage and those not planning to marry at all. The record of internal migration in the Philippines during the 20th century has been dominated by the phenomenon of urbanization, which increased from 13% in 1903 to 33% in 1970. An effort needs to be made to achieve greater rural-urban balance. The country's high population growth has increased the number of job seekers in recent years; the expansion of the regional labor force in the 1960-1970 decade was highly correlated with the growth of regional populations. Fertility, mortality, nuptiality, migration, and urbanization are the major factors determining the growth and structure of Philippine population. Alternative projections for each of these factors were combined in different ways and 3 alternative scenarios for population in the year 2000 are presented.     

First-marriage decrement tables by color and sex for the United States in 1958–60

A new set of first-marriage tables is compared with earlier tables that were prepared by Grabill and Jacobson. The new tables show, among other things, the number of first marriages, first-marriage probabilities, and death probabilities for single persons in a stationary (life table) population by color and sex, based on 1960 Census data on marital status and age at first marriage and on general mortality rates for 1959-61. A comparison of the earlier tables with the new tables provides evidence of a decrease of one or two years in the average age at first marriage between 1920-40 and 1958-60 and an increasing tendency for first marriages to be concentrated within a narrower span of years. The prospects for eventual marriage have risen to the point where it is estimated that all but 3 to 5 percent of the young adults are expected eventually to marry. This development has gone so far that the main question remaining is not whether young people will ever marry, but at what age they will marry.     

Changes in childlessness in the United States: A demographic path analysis

Summary This paper describes changes in the incidence of marital childlessness among United States women since 1940 and tests a model to explain recent observed trends toward increasing childlessness. Based on U.S. Bureau of the Census sources, data are presented that indicate a substantial increase in childlessness for married women under 30 years of age since 1960. A path model is developed based on previous research on childlessness, in an attempt to explain this change. The model is composed of 1960-70 changes in (1) mean age at first marriage, (2) mean educational attainment, (3) the proportion of women in the labour force, (4) the proportion of women enrolled as students, (5) the incidence of marital disruption, and (6) the proportion of women living in urban environments. Using quarter-year age cohort data derived from the 1960 and 1970 1/100 Public Use Samples the results indicate that a substantial part of the increase in childlessness csn be explained by this model. Particularly important were increased enrolment of married women in education, labour force participation, and mean age of first marriage. The results suggest the relevance of structural changes along with birth expectation attitudes in predicting trends in childlessness in the United States.     

Note on some problems in interpreting migration data from the 1960 Census of population

Movements of young men into and out of the armed forces and youth entering and leaving the college population are an important component of the migration between 1955 and 1960 recorded in the 1960 Census of the, United States. Measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the end of the period (1960) are presented to show the substantial volume of these special types of movement. Under 1960 Census procedures, no corresponding measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the beginning of the period (1955) can be obtained. A sizeable number of the “migrants,” especially the young and well educated, identified in the 1960 Censuses must be persons who were in the armed forces or away at college in 1955 and, by 1960, had completed their military service or their education and returned to their previous places of residence.     

Two hundred years and counting: the 1990 census

On April 1, 1990, the US will take a national census, marking 200 years of census taking in America. A national census has been taken every 10 years in the US since 1790. Mandated by the US Constitution, the decennial census is the basis for reapportionment of the House of Representatives. California, Texas, and Florida are expected to gain the most Congressional seats following the 1990 Census, reflecting above-average population growth in these states. The census also provides important information about the characteristics of the American people, and a growing number of federal, state and local government programs, private corporations, and community agencies use census data. Each census provides a portrait of America, and over the decades these portraits have revealed much about how our country has changed as we have grown from a young agrarian nation of about 4 million people clustered along the Eastern seaboard to a complex post-industrial society of nearly 250 million spread across the continent and beyond. Techniques for taking the census have steadily improved over the past 2 centuries. The 1990 Census will rely heavily on computerization in all its aspects, including field operations, processing, geography, data tabulations, and products. It is likely to be the most accurate census in our history. The 1990 Census is already the subject of a lawsuit, however, charging that minority groups will be counted less completely than the white population. A series of similar lawsuits followed the 1980 Census, but all were unsuccessful. This Bulletin discusses the Census Bureau's plans for taking the 1990 Census, looks back on 200 years of census taking in America, and details such key aspects of the 1990 Census as the questionnaire, census geography and data dissemination plans, census undercount and the homeless.     

Measuring Child Poverty in Hong Kong: Sensitivity to the Choice of Equivalence Scale

In September 2013, the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region established Hong Kong’s first official poverty line. The new poverty line is used as a major yardstick in social welfare policy formulation and in the allocation of public resources aimed at combating poverty; despite its importance, however, its robustness has not been examined. Using data from the 2011 Population Census, we examined the robustness of the official poverty line in measuring child poverty in Hong Kong through assessing the sensitivity of child poverty measures to the choice of different equivalence scales. The results show that the child poverty profile in Hong Kong is generally not sensitive to the choice of equivalence scale and that the official poverty line correctly identifies those children who live in poverty. Rates of child poverty among boys and girls of different ages, with different family backgrounds and living in households with different compositions, were calculated and ranked using different equivalence scales; these rankings were found to be very similar to those yielded by the official poverty measure. Thus, the choice of adult equivalence scale does not favour any subgroup. We also examined the child poverty profile in Hong Kong based on the official poverty measure and with our 2011 census data. We found that the children in our sample were more likely than the adults to live in poverty household; that more than half of the children who lived in poverty belonged to working poor families; and that children living in public housing were particularly likely to suffer from severe poverty. In light of these findings, we urge the government to prioritise taking measures aimed at lifting children out of poverty.     

The evolution of family planning in an African city: Ibadan, Nigeria

Summary Data drawn from a 1973 probability sample of 6,606 Yoruba females, 15-59 years of age in Ibadan City, Nigeria, are employed to analyse changing family planning practice over time. Usage and method rates are calculated for broad age groups from 1930 to 1973. Contraceptive practice is shown to have increased rapidly during the 1960s and early 1970s, from a very low initial base with a doubling period for the proportion of contraceptors of about four years, so that by 1973 one-sixth of the women had practised contraception and one-ninth were currently doing so. The major determinant of contraceptive practice is education. Oral contraceptives and IUDs account for an ever larger proportion of all contraception over time and together made up over 50 per cent by 1973. The Ibadan data give strong support to a suggestion emanating from scattered findings elsewhere that there is a special pattern of sub-Saharan contraceptive use: it begins with use in pre-marital and extra-marital relationships; then is increasingly employed as a substitute for post-marital sexual abstinence, and only later becomes the means for limiting the size of the family. Hence, the success of a family planning programme is indicated by rising average parity among the acceptors. Most couples in Ibadan will probably be practising contraception at some time in the 1980s, but even then such rates will probably still be low in rural areas.