Chinese population prospects projection]

Production of population and goods are closely related, mutually restricted, and should be included in our economic plan. Population projection is important in implementation and study of population policy. It is also the foundation of population regulations. Assuming 2 children per couple the population growth rate will be 1% in 1985 and .6% in the year 2000. Therefore, we cannot realize our goal of .5% population growth rate by 1985 and 0% by 2000. A 9% annual growth rate of national production will be required to reach our goal of $1000 U.S. per capita income by the year 2000, a goal that history proves is difficult to achieve. 2 children per couple, therefore, cannot meet our urgent requirements of modernization and educational improvement. A 2nd assumption of 90% single child families after 1 year would yield an average annual population growth rate of .38% in 1985 and .012% in the year 2000. This assumption leads to a rapid population decrease, too rapid for most to accept the change. The 3rd assumption is a gradual increase in single child families to 50% in 1985 and 90% in the year 2000. The resulting growth rates will be .5% in 1983 and near 0% in the year 2000. The projected population boom from 1987 to 1996 will be decreased to an annual increase of .4-.5%. This assumption provides time for people to understand and recognize the importance of the policy. It meets the requirements of modernization and will help improve China's educational and living standards. All 3 assumptions were based on 3 children per couple for minorities.     

实现小康社会目标与人口、社会经济可持续发展

人口发展速度过快、数量增长过多,将减少人均GDP的占有量,影响全面建设小康社会经济发展目标的实现和经济社会的可持续发展。继续稳定现行生育政策仍然是21世纪前半叶我国人口、社会经济可持续发展的基本战略决策。     

The outlook of China's population after the stabilization of birth policy

A professor of the Institute of Population Research of the People's University of China attempts to project the future population development of China so that stabilization of the birth policy can be assessed. He divides China into the economically developed and population-controlled area (29% of the population), the economically subdeveloped and population fairly-controlled areas (59% of the population), and the economically less-developed areas where fertility is high (12% of the population). China's population is expected to increase because of the baby boom to 1.25-1.3 billion by the year 2000. Between 1996 and 2000, the growth rate is expected to decelerate and reach zero growth. After 2010, if growth is held at the replacement rate of 2.1, the population will still continue to grow slowly. Around 2100, China's population should be around 1.45-1.59 billion. This would cause a decrease of 27% of arable land. With a decline in fertility rate comes a rise in the amount of the aged population (4.9% in 1982 vs. 5.5% in 1987). The proportion of aged citizens is expected to rise with the stabilization policy until around 2040 where it can be held at about 18%. China's GNP by the year 2000 is expected to be US$1183.8 billion with the per capita GNP about US$934 (providing the population is controlled). Compare this figure with the per capita GNP of the world (US$30,100) and of developed countries (US$10,700) in 1988, and one can see that China is far behind the rest of the world in economic growth.     

中国矿产资源与经济可持续发展研究

矿产资源在中国经济发展中占据非常重要的地位。中国的石油、天然气、铁、铜、铝土矿、金、钾盐等关系国计民生的大宗矿产不是储量有限 ,就是质量低劣。中国矿产资源存量和开发方面都存在问题。根据预测 ,即使我们采取最严格的控制人口的生育政策 ,未来中国总人口也将持续增加 5 0年。总人口的增加意味着我国未来人均矿产资源变得更少。因此 ,在未来相当长的时期内 ,我们一方面要继续实行低生育率政策以控制人口数量过快增长 ,使我国的人均矿产资源控制在可接受的范围内 ;另一方面要提高矿产资源可持续利用以促进经济可持续发展     

Human capital,technological progress and the demographic transition*

We emphasize the importance to consider components of population growth — fertility and mortality ‐ separately, when modeling the mutual interaction between population and economic growth. Our model implies that two countries with the same population growth will not converge towards the same level of per capita income. The country with the lower level of birth and death rates will be better off in the long run. Introducing a spill over effect of average human capital on total productivity our model implies multiple equilibria as illustrated in Becker el al. (1990) and Strulik (1999). Besides the existence of a low and high level equilibrium ‐ as characterized by low and high levels of per capita output respectively ‐ we show the existence of multiple low level (Malthusian) equilibria. Initial conditions and parameters of technological progress and human capital investment determine whether an economy is capable to escape the low level equilibrium trap and to enjoy sustained economic growth.     

The population problems in the countryside of China from the viewpoint of ecological economy]

There is a very close relationship between the population and the economy. The economy is the foundation for the existence and development of the population. Different socioeconomic patterns will determine population rules and population development, they have a strong influence on the social economy and the development of the entire society, and they may control the pace of social and economic development. In the last 30 years, excessive population growth has caused a great many difficulties for Socialist construction, overburdened agriculture, and created an imbalance in agricultural ecology. In order to understand the relationship between the development of the agricultural population and agricultural production, we have to understand to dominant position held by people in an agricultural ecology system. People have to control their own reproduction and match it with the productivity of the agricultural ecology system. Unrestrained population growth in the countryside is the main reason for an imbalance in China's agricultural ecology. Urgent action is needed to control the population growth in the rural areas, to fully utilized the available labor force, to promote the level of agricultural productivity, and to provide more employment opportunities. The final goal is to match China's huge agricultural human resources with its rich resources. investment should be encouraged to increase the wisdom and quality of the agricultural population. Both the quality and quantity of the agricultural labor force should also match development of agricultural productivity. In this way, a normal condition of agricultural ecology may be maintained.     

中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障

中国人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保证程度研究表明,随着人口增长和消费扩张,中国未来的耕地规模和人均耕地面积会进一步下降,人均粮食消费水平和粮食需求总量将进一步提高;2020年在人均粮食420~435kg的消费水平上,基于18亿亩耕地保证的粮食生产能力可以基本满足14.36亿人口的粮食需求;在人均450kg的消费水平上,中国未来耕地的粮食生产能力足以支持人口高锋时间的14.73亿人,但受耕地资源有限约束,人均粮食占有水平很难有进一步提高。从耕地、粮食与人口关系看,中国未来人口的粮食安全必须向食物安全转变,从耕地资源约束的粮食生产与人口增长驱动的食物消费两端着眼:一方面要重视耕地与粮食安全——藏粮于土,全面提高土地资源综合生产能力;一方面要关注食物与消费安全——倡导适度消费,建立动植物并重型食物结构;从生产与消费两方面来认识和解决中国中长期人口发展的食物安全与耕地保障问题。     

Continue to encourage one couple to have one child]

The Chinese State Council exhorted the masses in 1984 and 1986 to improve upon its adherence to the birth policy. The policy of 1 child per couple is the proper policy reflecting specific historical conditions. China's goal to modernize cannot be realized if the population grows unchecked. With the exception of minorities and certain rural families, all couples are affected by this policy. The 1 child rate jumped from 20.73% in 1970 to 58.3% in 1984, while the 3 child rate dropped to 19.8% from 60.21% during those years. In order to solve one of China's major future population problems, it is necessary to continue advocating 1 child per couple. With the 1986 population at 1,060,080,000, China's average per capita income is among the lowest in the world. It is not enough simply to improve the economy. Population growth must be contained at 1,200,000,000 by 2000. If every couple were permitted 2 children, and allowing for unplanned births, the population would be 1,300,000,000 in 2000. Therefore, it is essential to encourage more couples to limit families to 1 child through example by officials, propaganda, material incentives and priorities in jobs and housing.     

中国人口年龄结构特征与变化趋势分析--基于1995～2014年数据的实证研究

人口年龄结构是经过多年人口自然增长和迁移变动等综合作用而形成的客观状况,对未来人口发展的速度和趋势以及国家或地区经济社会整体发展产生重要影响。本文通过对1995～2014年数据的实证分析,发现20年来我国人口年龄结构呈现以下特征：少儿人口数量减少且比重呈持续下降趋势;劳动年龄人口数量稳步增长且比重呈稳定上升趋势;老年人口数量持续增长且比重呈上升趋势,老龄化进程加快。总体人口年龄结构呈现老年型,各地区人口老龄化程度存在差异。各地人口负担系数存在较大差异,人均GDP与总抚养比和少年儿童抚养比呈负相关,与老年人口抚养比呈正相关。经济发达省市区人口负担系数较小;城乡人口比例呈持续升高态势;城乡人口总抚养比和少儿抚养比呈下降趋势,城乡老年人口抚养比呈稳步升高态势;乡村人口抚养比高于城镇。     

人口老龄化影响区域经济发展的作用机理与路径研究

人口老龄化是21世纪人类社会共同面对的重大现实问题,它与区域经济发展之间有着必然的内在关联性,因为人口老龄化对区域经济发展中的生产和消费等环节均有重要影响。因此,本文从人口的生产属性和消费属性出发,以经济增长理论和国民收入决定理论为基础,分析了人口老龄化影响区域经济发展的作用机理和路径,从而为制定合理的区域经济发展政策和人口发展政策提供相应的理论基础和实践依据。     

Searching for balanced development

It is significant in China, as the day of 5 billion is commemorated, that the Government has shown its full committment to a family planning program that has been internationally acknowledged as one of the most successful efforts in the world today. Since 1979, the annual population growth rate in China has gone down from 2.7% to an annual average of around 1.2%. In fact, because China makes up more than 1/5 of the world's population, the overall growth rate achieved worldwide has been reduced to about 2%. This is heavily due to the achievements of the Chinese family planning program. Even as China has lowered its birthrate, its rate of agricultural production has rapidly risen. At present, China is doing well in grain production. Although the per capita income in China is still comparatively low, the country is able to feed its citizens, and the famines that used to be a big problem are now but a bad memory. As the close relationship between population and development is observed, there is some controversy about the effects and impact of family planning on development. The belief is held that the more people there are in this world, the more progress there will be because more brains, hands, and energy will be harnessed for development. As has also been noted, however, a person is not just head and hands--a person has a mouth to feed, as well. Thus, there is a need to balance the number of people with the resources of the society. If the rate of population growth outstrips economic and social production, then hunger and poverty will result, as the fruits of development will be eaten up too rapidly.     

青海省人口和经济发展基本情况分析

青海省人口自然增长率在逐年下降,人均生产总值,人均纯收入都在快速增长,群众的最低生活保障体系正在建立;这几年出口贸易顺差大,地方财政收入增长快,这都为青海经济发展提供了有利条件。     

An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Millennium Development Goals,Economic Growth and Financial Development in South Africa

The relationship between financial development, economic growth and millennium development goals are unsettled in the literature. Using four indicators of financial development, this paper studies the link between the three variables in South Africa. In general, per capita income improves per capita spending on education in the short run. However, total domestic credit to GDP ratio decreases spending on education. There are highly significant long run relationships among the variables. Improving access to private sector credit and increasing per capita incomes are associated with improvement in health outcomes in South Africa. There are no short run nor long run relationships between household spending on clothes, economic growth and financial sector development. Improved private sector credit also improves household spending on food. In general, there are long run relationships between per capita spending on food, per capita income and financial sector development.

     

Some problems on objective laws of population]

We must realize the existence and the importance of objective laws of population to understand the practical law. Population growth is determined by physiological and sociological factors. Furthermore, the sociological factor is determined by the production of the society. Until production reaches a certain level, the direction of population growth in both quantity and quality parallels production. After the population reaches a certain level, both the production and the quality of population growth continue to increase, but the quantity of the population growth decreases. Production requires both labor and material. Their relationship is expressed as the objective law of simple reproduction and expanded reproduction. The rapid development of technology and production in capitalistic societies results in unemployment. This "excess" population is a product of the capitalistic system. The rapid development of technology and production in a socialistic society results not in unemployment but in shorter working days and a higher living standard. The objective law of population growth is not transformed into a law of comparative population excess but into a unique socialistic population law--the formation of a highly civilized communistic working people.     

International Comparisons of Trends in Economic Well-being

This paper develops a new measure of economic well-being for selectedOECD countries for the period 1980 to 1996 and compares trends in thisnew Index to GDP per capita. We argue that the economic well-being ofa society depends on the level of average consumption flows, aggregateaccumulation of productive stocks, inequality in the distribution ofindividual incomes and insecurity in the anticipation of future income.However, the weights attached to each component will vary, dependingon the values of different observers. We argue that public debatewould be improved if there is explicit consideration of theaspects of economic well-being obscured by average income trends andif the weights attached to these aspects were made visible and wereopen for discussion.     

新疆人口数量变化能否促进经济增长？--基于VEC模型的动态实证研究

为了研究新疆人口数量变化能否促进经济增长,本文在生态环境承载力、劳动力边际产出和人口理论方面论述了人口数量变化与经济增长的相互作用机理,在此基础上通过VEC模型对人口数量、人均GDP和财政预算收入进行动态研究,结果为：长期人均GDP和人口数量成正向关系,弹性为0.33,但财政预算收入却因人口数量的增加而呈现小幅度降低,弹性为0.09。短期内人均GDP与人口数量成反向关系,财政预算收入的增加反而能够促进人口数量的增加。     

Population aging, health care, and growth

This paper constructs a small open two-sector (health care and non-health care) overlapping generations model and investigates how changes in the demand for health care induced by population aging influence the economy’s employment structure and per capita income growth rate. We show that population aging induces a shift in labor from the non-health care sector to the health care sector and lowers the per capita income growth rate. This paper also investigates public policy for child care and demonstrates the existence of an intergenerational conflict between current and future generations concerning public policy on child care.     

Some fundamental problems concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development]

The population growth rate is closely related to the quality of economic life, available funds for individual and social consumption, national income to be used for reproduction, and the labor employment situation. Since liberation, socialism has not been able to show its superiority, mainly because of China's large population figure, low economic productivity, low national income, and poor management in the relationship between consumption and accumulation. In order to solve these problems, we need to adequately control the pace of the population growth and match the rate of population growth with the pace of economic development. A way to increase national income is through saving and avoiding unnecessary waste. Social expenditures on education, culture, science, health and medical care, social welfare, and investment in the promotion of people's wisdom should all be increased. Meanwhile, the living standard of the people needs to be raised, and capital accumulation should also be managed so that funds will be available for industrial and economic enterprises. Existing inefficient production enterprises should be properly reorganized so that full employment may be achieved. In this way, the national economy will have more prosperity, and the people will benefit more from the Socialist policy.     

Population and resources

Rapid growth of the world's population is recent. World food production has increased in close proportion. No one can say when or in what fashion population growth will end; whether by our deliberate choice, or by catastrophe, or by some limit of the Earth.In the United States, during a century and a half of rapid growth, farming has diminished from being the major economic activity to an almost trivial fraction. At the same time, farm production has increased many-fold. One result is that the American public spends a smaller portion of its income on food than, probably, has any society in human history. Not all of the world has shared in this agricultural revolution and, once in recent decades, and now again, evidence suggests food production may fail to increase with population. Certainly no guarantee can be offered that food production will always be adequate.Pessimism on the outcome is warranted if only because of profound disagreement among those who should be best informed. Many look only to the near future and persistently advocate growth. Only a few look to the long-run and the inescapable disasters of persistent growth.Presented at the symposium on Population and Scarcity: The Forgotten Dimensions.     

中国城市化发展对粮食生产影响分析

1990年之后,我国粮食生产变动较大,同时我国城市化的两个主要方面——人口城市化和土地利用城市化继续迅速发展,分别表现为:粮食总产量波动很大,人均粮食产量呈减少趋势;人口城市化保持快速推进,导致农业劳动力数量减少、素质弱化;土地利用的城市化发展速度更快,造成耕地面积减少、质量不断降低。数据分析显示,我国目前粮食生产仍主要依靠劳动力和耕地两大基本要素的投入,因此城市化的上述发展特征,将对中国粮食生产造成不利影响。