Improved likelihood-based inference for the MA(1) model

An improved likelihood-based method is proposed to test for the significance of the first-order moving average model. Compared with commonly used tests which depend on the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimate and the likelihood ratio statistic, the proposed method has remarkable accuracy. Application of the method to a data set on book sales is presented to demonstrate the implementation of the method. Simulation studies are subsequently performed to illustrate the accuracy of the method compared to the traditional methods. Additionally, a simple and effective correction is used to deal with the boundary problem.     

An approximate degrees of freedom test for heteroscedastic two-way ANOVA

Heteroscedastic two-way ANOVA are frequently encountered in real data analysis. In the literature, classical F-tests are often blindly employed although they are often biased even for moderate heteroscedasticity. To overcome this problem, several approximate tests have been proposed in the literature. These tests, however, are either too complicated to implement or do not work well in terms of size controlling. In this paper, we propose a simple and accurate approximate degrees of freedom (ADF) test. The ADF test is shown to be invariant under affine-transformations, different choices of contrast matrix for the same null hypothesis, or different labeling schemes of cell means. Moreover, it can be conducted easily using the usual F-distribution with one unknown degree of freedom estimated from the data. Simulations demonstrate that the ADF test works well in various cell sizes and parameter configurations but the classical F-tests work badly when the cell variance homogeneity assumption is violated. A real data example illustrates the methodologies.     

Statistical inference in partially time-varying coefficient models

A partially time-varying coefficient time series model is introduced to characterize the nonlinearity and trending phenomenon. To estimate the regression parameter and the nonlinear coefficient function, the profile least squares approach is applied with the help of local linear approximation. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed estimators are established under mild conditions. Meanwhile, the generalized likelihood ratio test is studied and the test statistics are demonstrated to follow asymptotic χ²-distribution under the null hypothesis. Furthermore, some extensions of the proposed model are discussed and several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the finite sample behavior of the proposed methods.     

A combined p-value test for multiple hypothesis testing

Tests that combine p-values, such as Fisher's product test, are popular to test the global null hypothesis H₀ that each of n component null hypotheses, H₁,…,H_n, is true versus the alternative that at least one of H₁,…,H_n is false, since they are more powerful than classical multiple tests such as the Bonferroni test and the Simes tests. Recent modifications of Fisher's product test, popular in the analysis of large scale genetic studies include the truncated product method (TPM) of Zaykin et al. (2002), the rank truncated product (RTP) test of Dudbridge and Koeleman (2003) and more recently, a permutation based test—the adaptive rank truncated product (ARTP) method of Yu et al. (2009). The TPM and RTP methods require users' specification of a truncation point. The ARTP method improves the performance of the RTP method by optimizing selection of the truncation point over a set of pre-specified candidate points. In this paper we extend the ARTP by proposing to use all the possible truncation points {1,…,n} as the candidate truncation points. Furthermore, we derive the theoretical probability distribution of the test statistic under the global null hypothesis H₀. Simulations are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test with the Bonferroni test, the Simes test, the RTP test, and Fisher's product test. The simulation results show that the proposed test has higher power than the Bonferroni test and the Simes test, as well as the RTP method. It is also significantly more powerful than Fisher's product test when the number of truly false hypotheses is small relative to the total number of hypotheses, and has comparable power to Fisher's product test otherwise.     

Higher order C(α) tests with applications to mixture models

A class of second-order C(α) tests is proposed for testing composite hypotheses when no optimal test among the (first-order) C(α) tests, as defined by Neyman (Probability and Statistics, The Harald Cramer Volume, Almqvist and Wiksell, Uppsala, Sweden, 1959, p. 213), exists. The form of an optimal test of the new subclass is also presented. The procedure is seen to be easily extendable to C(α) tests of third or higher orders. Two examples of univariate normal mixtures are considered where the procedure is successfully applied. For the corresponding multivariate models, union–intersection tests of Roy (Ann. Math. Statist. 24 (1953) 220) are derived by combining the above optimal tests of the univariate problems.     

Improved likelihood-based inference for the stationary AR(2) model

An improved likelihood-based method based on Fraser et al. (1999) is proposed in this paper to test the significance of the second lag of the stationary AR(2) model. Compared with the test proposed by Fan and Yao (2003) and the signed log-likelihood ratio test, the proposed method has remarkable accuracy. Simulation studies are performed to illustrate the accuracy of the proposed method. Application of the proposed method on historical data is presented to demonstrate the implementation of this method. Furthermore, the method can be extended to the general AR(p) model.     

Fitting time series models for longitudinal survey data under informative sampling

The purpose of this paper is to account for informative sampling in fitting time series models, and in particular an autoregressive model of order one, for longitudinal survey data. The idea behind the proposed approach is to extract the model holding for the sample data as a function of the model in the population and the first-order inclusion probabilities, and then fit the sample model using maximum-likelihood, pseudo-maximum-likelihood and estimating equations methods. A new test for sampling ignorability is proposed based on the Kullback–Leibler information measure. Also, we investigate the issue of the sensitivity of the sample model to incorrect specification of the conditional expectations of the sample inclusion probabilities. The simulation study carried out shows that the sample-likelihood-based method produces better estimators than the pseudo-maximum-likelihood method, and that sensitivity to departures from the assumed model is low. Also, we find that both the conventional t-statistic and the Kullback–Leibler information statistic for testing of sampling ignorability perform well under both informative and noninformative sampling designs.     

Inferences on correlation coefficients: One-sample,independent and correlated cases

This article concerns inference on the correlation coefficients of a multivariate normal distribution. Inferential procedures based on the concepts of generalized variables (GVs) and generalized p$p$-values are proposed for elements of a correlation matrix. For the simple correlation coefficient, the merits of the generalized confidence limits and other approximate methods are evaluated using a numerical study. The study indicates that the proposed generalized confidence limits are uniformly most accurate even for samples as small as three. The results are extended for comparing two independent correlations, overlapping and non-overlapping dependent correlations. For each problem, the properties of the GV approach and other asymptotic methods are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. The GV approach produces satisfactory results for all the problems considered. The methods are illustrated using a few practical examples.     

Testing Serial Correlation in Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Models

We propose two test statistics for testing serial correlation in semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear models. The proposed test statistics are not only for testing zero first-order serial correlation, but also for testing higher-order serial correlations. Under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation, the test statistics are shown to have asymptotic normal or chi-square distributions. By using R, some Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to examine the finite sample performances of the proposed tests. Simulation results show that the estimated size and power of the proposed tests behave well.     

Estimation of covariance matrix via the sparse Cholesky factor with lasso

In this paper, we discuss a parsimonious approach to estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices via the modified Cholesky decomposition with lasso. Two different methods are proposed. They are the equi-angular and equi-sparse methods. We use simulation to compare the performance of the proposed methods with others available in the literature, including the sample covariance matrix, the banding method, and the L₁-penalized normal loglikelihood method. We then apply the proposed methods to a portfolio selection problem using 80 series of daily stock returns. To facilitate the use of lasso in high-dimensional time series analysis, we develop the dynamic weighted lasso (DWL) algorithm that extends the LARS-lasso algorithm. In particular, the proposed algorithm can efficiently update the lasso solution as new data become available. It can also add or remove explanatory variables. The entire solution path of the L₁-penalized normal loglikelihood method is also constructed.     

Nonparametric model checking for k-out-of-n systems

It is an important problem in reliability analysis to decide whether for a given k-out-of-n system the static or the sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate. Often components are redundantly added to a system to protect against failure of the system. If the failure of any component of the system induces a higher rate of failure of the remaining components due to increased load, the sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate. The increase of the failure rate of the remaining components after a failure of some component implies that the effects of the component redundancy are diminished. On the other hand, if all the components have the same failure distribution and whenever a failure occurs, the remaining components are not affected, the static k-out-of-n model is adequate. In this paper, we consider nonparametric hypothesis tests to make a decision between these two models. We analyze test statistics based on the profile score process as well as test statistics based on a multivariate intensity ratio and derive their asymptotic distribution. Finally, we compare the different test statistics.     

Accelerated life test planning with independent lognormal competing risks

In accelerated life testing (ALT), products are exposed to stress levels higher than those at normal use in order to obtain information in a timely manner. Past work on planning ALT is predominantly on a single cause of failure. This article presents methods for planning ALT in the presence of k competing risks. Expressions for computing the Fisher information matrix are presented when risks are independently distributed lognormal. Optimal test plans are obtained under criteria that are based on determinants and maximum likelihood estimation. The proposed method is demonstrated on ALT of motor insulation.     

Order restricted statistical inference for scale parameters based on sequential order statistics

In the situation of a multi-sample experiment consisting of differently equipped sequential k-out-of-n systems, scale parameters of underlying distributions from a general location-scale family of distributions are estimated under an order restriction. In each sample, the case of missing the smallest observations is included. Moreover, based on a profile likelihood a homogeneity test against an ordered alternative is proposed and analyzed. This work extends an approach of Bhattacharya [2007. Testing for ordered failure rates under general progressive censoring. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 1775–1786] in the progressive Type-II censoring framework.     

Jacobi and Laguerre polynomial approximations for the distributions of statistics useful in testing for outliers in exponential and gamma samples

Recently, Sanjel and Balakrishnan [A Laguerre Polynomial Approximation for a goodness-of-fit test for exponential distribution based on progressively censored data, J. Stat. Comput. Simul. 78 (2008), pp. 503–513] proposed the use of Laguerre orthogonal polynomials for a goodness-of-fit test for the exponential distribution based on progressively censored data. In this paper, we use Jacobi and Laguerre orthogonal polynomials in order to obtain density approximants for some test statistics useful in testing for outliers in gamma and exponential samples. We first obtain the exact moments of the statistics and then the density approximants, based on these moments, are expressed in terms of Jacobi and Laguerre polynomials. A comparative study is carried out of the critical values obtained by using the proposed methods to the corresponding results given by Barnett and Lewis [Outliers in Statistical Data, 3rd ed., John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1993]. This reveals that the proposed techniques provide very accurate approximations to the distributions. Finally, we present some numerical examples to illustrate the proposed approximations. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the proposed approximate densities are very accurate.     

Likelihood-based approaches for multivariate linear models under inequality constraints for incomplete data

In this paper, we consider a multivariate linear model with complete/incomplete data, where the regression coefficients are subject to a set of linear inequality restrictions. We first develop an expectation/conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm for calculating restricted maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest. We then establish the corresponding convergence properties for the proposed ECM algorithm. Applications to growth curve models and linear mixed models are presented. Confidence interval construction via the double-bootstrap method is provided. Some simulation studies are performed and a real example is used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

Optimal weighted two-sample t-test with partially paired data in a unified framework

In this paper, we provide a unified framework for two-sample t-test with partially paired data. We show that many existing two-sample t-tests with partially paired data can be viewed as special members in our unified framework. Some shortcomings of these t-tests are discussed. We also propose the asymptotically optimal weighted linear combination of the test statistics comparing all four paired and unpaired data sets. Simulation studies are used to illustrate the performance of our proposed asymptotically optimal weighted combinations of test statistics and compare with some existing methods. It is found that our proposed test statistic is generally more powerful. Three real data sets about CD4 count, DNA extraction concentrations, and the quality of sleep are also analyzed by using our newly introduced test statistic.     

Modified quasi-profile likelihoods from estimating functions

We discuss higher-order adjustments for a quasi-profile likelihood for a scalar parameter of interest, in order to alleviate some of the problems inherent to the presence of nuisance parameters, such as bias and inconsistency. Indeed, quasi-profile score functions for the parameter of interest have bias of order O(1)$\mathrm{O}(1)$, and such bias can lead to poor inference on the parameter of interest. The higher-order adjustments are obtained so that the adjusted quasi-profile score estimating function is unbiased and its variance is the negative expected derivative matrix of the adjusted profile estimating equation. The modified quasi-profile likelihood is then obtained as the integral of the adjusted profile estimating function. We discuss two methods for the computation of the modified quasi-profile likelihoods: a bootstrap simulation method and a first-order asymptotic expression, which can be simplified under an orthogonality assumption. Examples in the context of generalized linear models and of robust inference are provided, showing that the use of a modified quasi-profile likelihood ratio statistic may lead to coverage probabilities more accurate than those pertaining to first-order Wald-type confidence intervals.     

The minimum L2 distance estimator for Poisson mixture models

A robust estimator is developed for Poisson mixture models with a known number of components. The proposed estimator minimizes the L₂ distance between a sample of data and the model. When the component distributions are completely known, the estimators for the mixing proportions are in closed form. When the parameters for the component Poisson distributions are unknown, numerical methods are needed to calculate the estimators. Compared to the minimum Hellinger distance estimator, the minimum L₂ estimator can be less robust to extreme outliers, and often more robust to moderate outliers.     

A new way of quantifying the symmetry of a random variable: Estimation and hypothesis testing

New measures of skewness for real-valued random variables are proposed. The measures are based on a functional representation of real-valued random variables. Specifically, the expected value of the transformed random variable can be used to characterize the distribution of the original variable. Firstly, estimators of the proposed skewness measures are analyzed. Secondly, asymptotic tests for symmetry are developed. The tests are consistent for both discrete and continuous distributions. Bootstrap versions improving the empirical results for moderated and small samples are provided. Some simulations illustrate the performance of the tests in comparison to other methods. The results show that our procedures are competitive and have some practical advantages.     

The exact hypothesis test for the shape parameter of a new two-parameter distribution with the bathtub shape or increasing failure rate function under progressive censoring with random removals

This study considers the exact hypothesis test for the shape parameter of a new two-parameter distribution with the shape of a bathtub or increasing failure rate function under type II progressive censoring with random removals, where the number of units removed at each failure time follows a binomial or a uniform distribution. Several test statistics are proposed and one numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed hypothesis test for the shape parameter. Finally, a simulation study is performed to compare the power performances of all proposed test statistics. We concluded that the test statistic w ₁ is more attractive than other methods as it has better performance than other test statistics for most cases based on the criteria of maximum power.