A modified Cp statistic in a system-of-equations model

A new statistic, SΓ(p), is developed for variable selection in a system-of-equations model. The standardized total mean square error in the SΓ(p)statistic is weighted by the covariance matrix of dependent variables instead of the error covariance matrix of the true model as in the original definition. The new statistic can be also used for model selection in the non-nested models. The estimate of SΓ(p), SC(p), is derived and shown to become SC_ε(p) in the similar form of C_p in a single-equation model when the covariance matrix of sampled dependent variables is replaced by the error covariance matrix under the full model.     

A new lower bound to A2-optimality measure for multi-level and mixed-level column balanced designs and its applications

In this paper, a new lower bound to A₂-optimality measure is derived and is applied to multi-level and mixed-level column balanced designs. A₂-optimal multi-level and mixed-level designs are obtained by the application of the new lower bound.     

The q-Bernstein basis as a q-binomial distribution

The q-Bernstein basis, used in the definition of the q-Bernstein polynomials, is shown to be the probability mass function of a q-binomial distribution. This distribution is defined on a sequence of zero–one Bernoulli trials with probability of failure at any trial increasing geometrically with the number of previous failures. A modification of this model, with the probability of failure at any trial decreasing geometrically with the number of previous failures, leads to a second q-binomial distribution that is also connected to the q-Bernstein polynomials. The q-factorial moments as well as the usual factorial moments of these distributions are derived. Further, the q-Bernstein polynomial B_n(f(t),q;x) is expressed as the expected value of the function f([X_n]_q/[n]_q) of the random variable X_n obeying the q-binomial distribution. Also, using the expression of the q-moments of X_n, an explicit expression of the q-Bernstein polynomial B_n(f_r(t),q;x), for f_r(t) a polynomial, is obtained.     

Extension and necessity of Cheng and Wu conditions

Repeated Measurement Designs, with two treatments, n (experimental) units and p periods are examined. The model examined is with uncorrelated observations following a continuous distribution with constant variance and the parameters of interest are (i) the difference of direct effects and (ii) the difference of residual effects. In this paper (a) the difference of Universal optimality and Φ-optimality is clarified and (b) the sufficient conditions of Cheng and Wu (1980) are extended to include the case n=2 mod 4, p even, (c) also it is shown that these conditions are also necessary for Φ-optimality for estimating direct as well as residual effects, and (d) a method is proposed to construct Φ-optimal designs and examples are given when n even and p=3, n=0 mod 4 and p=4, n=2 mod 4 and p=4. In the last case the estimated parameters in the optimal design are correlated.     

The minimum L2 distance estimator for Poisson mixture models

A robust estimator is developed for Poisson mixture models with a known number of components. The proposed estimator minimizes the L₂ distance between a sample of data and the model. When the component distributions are completely known, the estimators for the mixing proportions are in closed form. When the parameters for the component Poisson distributions are unknown, numerical methods are needed to calculate the estimators. Compared to the minimum Hellinger distance estimator, the minimum L₂ estimator can be less robust to extreme outliers, and often more robust to moderate outliers.     

Discrete q-distributions on Bernoulli trials with a geometrically varying success probability

Consider a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials and assume that the odds of success (or failure) or the probability of success (or failure) at the ith trial varies (increases or decreases) geometrically with rate (proportion) q, for increasing i=1,2,…. Introducing the notion of a geometric sequence of trials as a sequence of Bernoulli trials, with constant probability, that is terminated with the occurrence of the first success, a useful stochastic model is constructed. Specifically, consider a sequence of independent geometric sequences of trials and assume that the probability of success at the jth geometric sequence varies (increases or decreases) geometrically with rate (proportion) q, for increasing j=1,2,…. On both models, let X_n be the number of successes up the nth trial and T_k (or W_k) be the number of trials (or failures) until the occurrence of the kth success. The distributions of these random variables turned out to be q-analogues of the binomial and Pascal (or negative binomial) distributions. The distributions of X_n, for n→∞$n\to \infty$, and the distributions of W_k, for k→∞$k\to \infty$, can be approximated by a q  -Poisson distribution. Also, as k→0$k\to 0$, a zero truncated negative q  -binomial distribution _Uk=_Wk|_Wk>0$U_k=W_k|W_k>0$ can be approximated by a q-logarithmic distribution. These discrete q-distributions and their applications are reviewed, with critical comments and additions. Finally, consider a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials and assume that the probability of success (or failure) is a product of two sequences of probabilities with one of these sequences depending only the number of trials and the other depending only on the number of successes (or failures). The q-distributions of the number X_n of successes up to the nth trial and the number T_k of trials until the occurrence of the kth success are similarly reviewed.     

Optimal designs for discriminating between some extensions of the Michaelis–Menten model

In this paper some results on the computation of optimal designs for discriminating between nonlinear models are provided. In particular, some typical deviations of the Michaelis–Menten model are considered. A common deviation of this pharmacokinetic model consists on adding a linear term. If two linear models differ in one parameter the T-optimal design for discriminating between them is c-optimal for estimating the added linear term. This is not the case for nonlinear models.     

A generalization of the bivariate Beta-Binomial distribution

This paper presents a new bivariate discrete distribution that generalizes the bivariate Beta-Binomial distribution. It is generated by Appell hypergeometric function F₁ and can be obtained as a Binomial mixture with an Exton's Generalized Beta distribution. The model has different marginal distributions which are, together with the conditional distributions, more flexible than the Beta-Binomial distribution. It has non-linear regression curves and is useful for random variables with positive correlation. These features make the model very adequate to fit observed data as the two applications included show.     

An optimal response adaptive biased coin design with k heteroscedastic treatments

For comparing treatments in clinical trials, Atkinson (1982) introduced optimal biased coins for balancing patients across treatment assignments by using D-optimality under the assumption of homoscedastic responses of different treatments. However, this assumption can be violated in many real applications. In this paper, we relax the homoscedasticity assumption in the k treatments setting with k>2. A general family of optimal response adaptive biased coin designs are proposed following Atkinson's procedure. Asymptotic properties of the proposed designs are obtained. Some advantages of the proposed design are discussed.     

Using a Truncated C p Statistic for Variable Selection in Multiple Linear Regression

In multiple linear regression analysis each lower-dimensional subspace L of a known linear subspace M of ? ⁿ corresponds to a non empty subset of the columns of the regressor matrix. For a fixed subspace L, the C _p statistic is an unbiased estimator of the mean square error if the projection of the response vector onto L is used to estimate the expected response. In this article, we consider two truncated versions of the C _p statistic that can also be used to estimate this mean square error. The C _p statistic and its truncated versions are compared in two example data sets, illustrating that use of the truncated versions may result in models different from those selected by standard C _p .     

On estimating the mean of the selected normal population in two-stage adaptive designs

Adaptive design is widely used in clinical trials. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the mean of the selected normal population in two-stage adaptive designs. Under the LINEX and L₂ loss functions, admissibility and minimax results are derived for some location invariant estimators of the selected normal mean. The naive sample mean estimator is shown to be inadmissible under the LINEX loss function and to be not minimax under both loss functions.     

A q-Pólya urn model and the q-Pólya and inverse q-Pólya distributions

A q-Pólya urn model is introduced by assuming that the probability of drawing a white ball at a drawing varies geometrically, with rate q, both with the number of drawings and the number of white balls drawn in the previous drawings. Then, the probability mass functions and moments of (a) the number of white balls drawn in a specific number of drawings and (b) the number of black balls drawn until a specific number of white balls are drawn are derived. These two distributions turned out to be q-analogs of the Pólya and the inverse Pólya distributions, respectively. Also, the limiting distributions of the q-Pólya and the inverse q-Pólya distributions, as the number of balls in the urn tends to infinity, are shown to be a q-binomial and a negative q-binomial distribution, respectively. In addition, the positive or negative q-hypergeometric distribution is obtained as conditional distribution of a positive or negative q-binomial distribution, given its sum with another positive or negative q-binomial distribution, independent of it.     

Circular consecutive k-out-of-n systems with exchangeable dependent components

In this paper we study circular consecutive k-out-of-n systems consisting of exchangeable components. We derive explicit expressions for both unconditional and conditional survival functions for 2k+1≥n, while signature based mixture representations for general k are obtained. The applications and computational results concerned with mean residual life function and stochastic ordering are presented.     

Estimation of covariance matrix via the sparse Cholesky factor with lasso

In this paper, we discuss a parsimonious approach to estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices via the modified Cholesky decomposition with lasso. Two different methods are proposed. They are the equi-angular and equi-sparse methods. We use simulation to compare the performance of the proposed methods with others available in the literature, including the sample covariance matrix, the banding method, and the L₁-penalized normal loglikelihood method. We then apply the proposed methods to a portfolio selection problem using 80 series of daily stock returns. To facilitate the use of lasso in high-dimensional time series analysis, we develop the dynamic weighted lasso (DWL) algorithm that extends the LARS-lasso algorithm. In particular, the proposed algorithm can efficiently update the lasso solution as new data become available. It can also add or remove explanatory variables. The entire solution path of the L₁-penalized normal loglikelihood method is also constructed.     

Remarks on the L1 distance in statistical data analysis

We propose the L₁ distance between the distribution of a binned data sample and a probability distribution from which it is hypothetically drawn as a statistic for testing agreement between the data and a model. We study the distribution of this distance for N-element samples drawn from k bins of equal probability and derive asymptotic formulae for the mean and dispersion of L₁ in the large-N limit. We argue that the L₁ distance is asymptotically normally distributed, with the mean and dispersion being accurately reproduced by asymptotic formulae even for moderately large values of N and k.     

A note on Läuter-type robust design for polynomial regression models

In this paper, we consider the problem of model robust design for simultaneous parameter estimation among a class of polynomial regression models with degree up to k. A generalized D-optimality criterion, the Ψ_α‐optimality criterion, first introduced by Läuter (1974) is considered for this problem. By applying the theory of canonical moments and the technique of maximin principle, we derive a model robust optimal design in the sense of having highest minimum Ψ_α‐efficiency. Numerical comparison indicates that the proposed design has remarkable performance for parameter estimation in all of the considered rival models.     

A Note on Criterion-Robust Optimal Designs for Model Discrimination and Parameter Estimation in Polynomial Regression Models

Consider the problem of discriminating between the polynomial regression models on [?1, 1] and estimating parameters in the models. Zen and Tsai (2002 Zen , M. M. , Tsai , M. H. ( 2002 ). Some criterion-robust optimal designs for the dual problem of model discrimination and parameter estimation . Sankhya Ind. J. Statist. 64 : (Series B, Pt. 3) : 322 – 338 . [Google Scholar]) proposed a multiple-objective optimality criterion, M _γ-criterion, which uses weight γ (0 ≤ γ ≤ 1) for model discrimination and α = β = (1 ? γ)/2 for parameter estimation in each model. In this article, we generalize it to a wider setup with different values of α and β. For instance, α = 2 β suggests that the “smaller” model is more likely to be the true model. Using similar techniques, the corresponding criterion-robust optimal design is investigated. A study for the original criterion-robust optimal design with α = β, through M-efficiency, shows that it is good enough for any wider setup.     

Nonparametric model checking for k-out-of-n systems

It is an important problem in reliability analysis to decide whether for a given k-out-of-n system the static or the sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate. Often components are redundantly added to a system to protect against failure of the system. If the failure of any component of the system induces a higher rate of failure of the remaining components due to increased load, the sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate. The increase of the failure rate of the remaining components after a failure of some component implies that the effects of the component redundancy are diminished. On the other hand, if all the components have the same failure distribution and whenever a failure occurs, the remaining components are not affected, the static k-out-of-n model is adequate. In this paper, we consider nonparametric hypothesis tests to make a decision between these two models. We analyze test statistics based on the profile score process as well as test statistics based on a multivariate intensity ratio and derive their asymptotic distribution. Finally, we compare the different test statistics.     

Circular success and failure runs in a sequence of exchangeable binary trials

Let X₁,…,X_n be an exchangeable sequence of binary trials arranged on a circle with possible values “1” (success) or “0” (failure). In an exchangeable sequence, the joint distribution of X₁,X₂,…,X_n is invariant under the permutation of its arguments. For the circular sequence, general expressions for the joint distributions of run statistics based on the joint distribution of success and failure run lengths are obtained. As a special case, we present our results for Bernoulli trials. The results presented consist of combinatorial terms and therefore provide easier calculations. For illustration purposes, some numerical examples are given and the reliability of the circular combined k-out-of-n:G and consecutive k_c-out-of-n:G system under stress–strength setup is evaluated.     

Estimation in M/Er /1 queueing systems

In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for the M/E_r /1 queueing model are derived when the queue size at each departure point is observed. A numerical example is generated by simulating a finite Markov chain to illustrate the methodology for estimating the parameters with variable Erlang service time distribution. The problem of hypothesis testing and simultaneous Confidence regions of the parameter is also investigated.0