中国居民储蓄的计量经济研究

改革开放以来 ,我国居民的储蓄总是不断增加 ,如何将储蓄向投资转化 ,使储蓄转变为经济增长的重要源泉之一 ,是一个函待解决的课题 ,本文利用计量研究的方法 ,根据相关统计资料 ,对近年来我国居民储蓄的变化进行分析 ,探讨居民储蓄行为的规律 ,试图找出并分析储蓄的主要决定因数。     

我国居民储蓄的过度敏感性分析

文章从储蓄的相关理论出发,通过建立中国居民的储蓄模型,分析了当前中国居民储蓄居高不下的原因,比较了城镇与农村居民储蓄倾向的不同。运用居民储蓄的倒U曲线,分析了居民储蓄的过度敏感性,并提出了相应的完善中国"储蓄市场"的对策。     

我国居民收入与储蓄的分析研究

把握居民储蓄行为及其变动规律，是国家有关决策部门亟待研究的问题。一般认为，居民储蓄是居民可支配收入用于消费后的剩余部分，因此，居民可支配收入是影响居民储蓄行为的重要因素之一。本文拟考察我国居民收入对居民储蓄的影响，以便人们对收人与储蓄的关系有更清楚的认识。一、我国居民收入与储蓄的现状分析由于我国尚处于社会主义初期阶段，因此居民的储蓄倾向较低。从表1可以看出，1983－1994年我国居民的平均储蓄倾向为221％。但随着收入的稳步上升，其储蓄倾向也呈现出平稳上升的态势，由1983年的12．9％上升到1994年的36．0％。与…     

我国居民储蓄增长模型

通过建立居民储蓄增长模型,可以对影响居民储蓄增长变化的主导因素作出分析,从而对居民储蓄的发展趋势作出正确的判断。本文在分析居民储蓄增长原因的基础上,选择适当变量建立模型,并对模型加以解释。一、居民储蓄高速增长的原因1．居民收入大幅增加是居民储蓄高速增长的决定因素随着国民经济水平的发展,居民收入大幅增加。1978年,我国国民生产总值仅有3624亿元,到1995年增长到57495亿元,年平均增长率为17．7％,居民可支配收入则从1638亿元增加为39759亿元,年均增长20．6％。经济规律表明,居民收入增长的比例高于消费的增长比例…     

中国居民储蓄的影响因素分析

文章在对居民储蓄影响因素进行分析的基础上,利用相关经济变量1978~2009年的时间序列数据,基于协整理论和误差修正模型,对我国城乡居民储蓄及其影响因素之间的长、短期关系进行了研究。结果表明,收入对居民储蓄的长期和短期影响均为最大;利率和通货膨胀率在长期对居民储蓄有影响,分别为正向和负向影响,但影响程度较小,短期无影响;预防性动机对居民储蓄的影响不显著。     

四川国民储蓄的演变

我国国民储蓄率长期在40%以上,特别是近年来不断攀升,据有关部门估计2005年达到47%。是什么原因导致储蓄率长期居高不下呢?政府、企业、居民在储蓄中的比例与关系是怎样演变的?我们针对近年四川省国民储蓄变化情况,从国民经济核算和资金流量表的角度做了以下分析。对国民储蓄概念的理解根据国民经济核算原理,储蓄是指可支配收入中扣除消费的部分。从国家的角度看,国民储蓄为国民可支配收入与总消费之差。国民可支配收入等于国内生产总值与来自国外的净经常转移之和,而总消费可分为住户(居民)消费和政府消费。若按部门划分,国民储蓄等于住户…     

教育和医保支出压力对农村居民消费影响的VAR分析

预防性储蓄理论不能完全解释居民储蓄的增长。引入支出增长预期变量,结合预防性储蓄理论,能够较全面解释居民储蓄和消费行为。VAR分析说明,教育和医疗保健支出的增长对农村居民消费产生一定抑制作用。     

四川居民储蓄快速增长的背后

过去10年来，我国居民储蓄实现加速度增长，分别于2003年9月、2008年8月、2010年12月和2013年1月突破10万亿元、20万亿元、30万亿元和40万亿元大关，且每突破一个10万亿元大关所用时间不断缩短。目前我国已成为全球储蓄金额最多的国家，居民储蓄率已超过50％。     

人力资本投资预期对居民储蓄行为的影响

文章在思考转轨时期居民储蓄增长特点的基础上,认为人力资本因素对我国居民储蓄行为的影响是直观的,并且通过构造一个计量经济模型,试图验证这一直观的想法。实证分析的结果显示,人力资本投资的预期成本和价格对居民储蓄有显著的正影响。     

人力资本投资预期对居民储蓄行为的影晌

文章在思考转轨时期居民储蓄增长特点的基础上,认为人力资本因素对我国居民储蓄行为的影响是直观的,并且通过构造一个计量经济模型,试图验证这一直观的想法.实证分析的结果显示,人力资本投资的预期成本和价格对居民储蓄有显著的正影响.     

Effects of neighbourhood demographic shifts on findings of environmental injustice: a New York City case-study

Summary We study the question of how changes in neighbourhood demographics affect findings of environmental equity. Many cross-sectional studies of association between neighbourhood racial and ethnic composition and the location of environmentally undesirable sites have been conducted. However, no evaluations have been conducted that examine how neighbourhood demographics change over time, and how those changes are related to the observed cross-sectional results. If the question is whether an observed association is the result of discrimination, it is crucial that the historical changes in neighbourhood structure are well understood. We develop some methods based on standard statistical techniques and illustrate their application by using the metropolitan New York City region as a case-study.     

Experimental design for product improvement

Fractional factorial designs have been used successfullyin industry and elsewhere todetect and estimate sparse factor effects , The effectsusually evisioned measure changes in location associated with the experimental factors . Here we consider the possibility of detecting and estimating sparse dispersion effects measuring changes in variance associated with the factors .

( 2 ) In industrial experimentation it is frequently true thata large proportion of process v ariation is associated with a smallproportion of the process variables . In such circum stancs of“effect sparsity”unreplicated fractional designs have frequently been effectivein islolating preponderant factors.A very useful graphical analysis for such experiments

due to Cuthbert Daniel(1959)employs normal probability plotting.A more formal analysis is presented here which might be used to supplement such plots.     

Coping with Hobgoblins: Rethinking Journals Processing in the E-Journals Environment at the University of South Florida

Many libraries grapple with how to develop new skills for processing electronic journals, while still handling the print format. Journals in a print format have always been complex, and adding the electronic component has made them more so. Few libraries are increasing staff to handle this workload. The University of South Florida Tampa Library has tried a number of workflow changes - not always successfully - to handle this transition. This paper will explore these changes, explain why some were not successful and why others have resulted in efficiencies, and will conclude with lessons learned that could benefit others.     

Accelerating the premiums for annuities,life annuities and life insurance

Abstract

Since it is well-known that it is inevitable to avoid the risks and changes in personal earnings, the types of annuities, life annuities, life insurance and their payment types are important for individuals, customers and financial institutions. In this study the types of annuities, life annuities and life insurance are discussed and some original payment models have been proposed considering both the annuity-due and annuity-immediate situations in increasing and decreasing case of payments. These suggested payment models that have been proposed have brought innovation to the literature in terms of being original.     

90年代中国工业产品外贸优势变化及入世后的战略选择

一、引言与中国经济高速增长相一致 ,中国工业产品对外贸易在改革开放后获得了迅速发展。1 980年 ,中国工业产品进出口总值为3 1 8亿美元 ,1 999年已达到 3 4 41亿美元 ,增长 9 8倍 ,年均增长率为 1 3 3 % ;其中出口由1 50亿美元增至 1 83 6亿美元 ,增长 1 1 2倍 ,年均增长率为 1 4 1 % ;进口由 1 68亿美元增至 1 60 5亿美元 ,增长 8 5倍 ,年均增长率为1 2 6%。工业产品对外贸易的巨大成长是伴随着对外贸易商品结构的优化而实现的。 2 0年来 ,工业产品中矿物燃料等初级产品在中国工业产品出口总值中的比重持续下降 ,而工业制成品及制成品…     

Role of statistics in quality and productivity improvement

The role of statistics in quality and productivity improvement depends on certain philosophical issues that the author believes have been inadequately addressed. Three such issues are as follows: (1) what is the role of statistics in the process of investigation and discovery; (2) how can we extrapolate results from the particular to the general; and (3) how can we evaluate possible management changes so that they truly benefit an organization? Therefore, statistical methods appropriate to investigation and discovery are discussed as distinct from those appropriate to the testing of an already discovered solution. It is shown how the manner in which the tentative solution has been arrived at determines the assurance with which experimental conclusions can be extrapolated to the application in mind. Whether or not statistical methods and training can have any impact depends on the system of management. A vector representation which can help predict the consequences of changes in management strategy is discussed. This can help to realign policies so that members of an organization can better work together for the benefit of the organization.     

Is Check-In Checking Out?

Abstract

Technological innovations have made changes in library procedures commonplace. Nonetheless, many librarians have been startled by the University of Nevada at Reno's decision to quit checking in print serials. Four serialists address the future of serials acquisitions in light of the technological advances that continue to transform library procedures. Serials Review 2003; 29:224–229.     

Minimally changed run sequences in factorial experiments

Randomization of run sequences in factorial experiments may result in large number of changes in factor levels which will make the experimentation expensive, time-consuming and difficult. Experiments in which it is difficult to change the levels of factor(s) use of minimally changed run sequences may often be preferable to a random run sequence. In the present paper, we have developed method for obtaining minimally changed run sequences for factorial experiments. The general expression of factor-wise number of level changes for the developed minimally changed run sequences has also been obtained. A relationship has been established between the time count effect of a lower order factorial with minimally changed run sequences and that of a higher order factorial with minimally changed run sequences obtained through the lower order minimally changed run sequences. For providing a readymade solution to the end users, a SAS macro has also been developed for generating these minimally changed run sequences along with its parameters.     

Geeta distribution and its properties

A new discrete distribution defined over all the positive integers and with the name of Geeta distribution is described. It is L-shaped like the logarithmic series distribution, Yule distribution and the discrete Pareto distribution but is far more versatile than them as it has two parameters. It belongs to the classes of location parameter distributions, modified power series distributions, Lagrange series distributions and exponential distributions. Its mean fi, variance a2 and two recurrence formulae for higher central moments are obtained. Convolution theorem and variations in the model with changes in the parameters have been considered. ML estimators, MVU estimators and estimators based of mean and variance and on mean and first frequency have been derived.     

Can the Growth of Mega-Journals Affect Authors' Choice of Journal?

The growth of mega-journals has also brought about changes in authorship. This study uses collected data to identify the transitions of mega-journal publishing and changes of authorship. For authors interested in publishing in mega-journals, the publication of South Korean authors in these mega-journals is specifically sampled and checked, revealing that mega-journals are increasingly the targets for publication. Some mega-journals have an impact factor even if they have only been publishing for 5–10 years. Ten out of 12 SCIE mega-journals collected in this study show a high impact factor, which is above average. Furthermore, the number of articles published by South Korean authors in major mega-journals is also on the rise. The result of this study will be useful for mega-journal editors, who are keen to know what factors influence author choice of journals, and for those who attempt to predict what impact mega-journals will have on scholarly journal publishing in the future.