Candidate Sex and Congressional Elections

Abstract

In 1992, an unprecedented number of women were elected to Congress. This election seemed to debunk the notion of female disadvantage as female candidates ran better than males. Since 1992, however, female candidates have failed to compete as effectively as men in congressional elections, again raising the specter of a sex bias. In this paper, we examine 365 open seat congressional elections held since 1982 in order to ascertain whether the indicators of female success in the 1980s and early 1990s structured female candidate success and/or failure after 1992. For this study, these indicators include candidate attributes such as financial quality and candidate experience. Our examination indicates that candidate attributes have significantly weakened as predictors of open seat election outcomes, especially in female versus male races. Instead, a strong increase in the correlation of the presidential normal vote and the congressional vote in open seats since 1992 indicates the emergence of elections where candidate attributes are secondary to the partisanship of the district. Female versus male races demonstrate much higher partisan coherence than all-male open seat contests, and Democratic women run about six points behind Republican women when district partisanship is controlled. These factors, combined with the increasingly Democratic distribution of female nominations, mitigate against female gains through open seats after 1992.     

Elections in Post-Communist Ukraine, 1994–2004: An Overview

The paper attempts a comprehensive and theoretically grounded analysis of all parliamentary and presidential elections carried out in Ukraine in the decade 1994 to 2004. It is organized into four sections. The first deals with the electoral system, how it came into being and has been amended, how it translates votes into seats, the "effective number" of political parties in the electorate and the legislature, and the battle over the electoral system itself during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. In the second section, voting behaviour of the Ukrainian electorate is examined. Using voting data, along with the results of public opinion surveys and reports on the conduct of the various election campaigns, the paper sorts through the relevant determinants of voting choice to identify the most pertinent ones as they operate in the Ukrainian context. Generally speaking, such determinants are: (1) background social characteristics of the voters, including the regional and ethnic factors; (2) the public's assessments of the current political and economic conditions in the country; (3) individual voters' partisan identification and opinions on prominent issues; (4) their retrospective evaluations of the incumbents; (5) leadership qualities of the contenders; and (6) prospective evaluations of parties and candidates as to their expected performance in office. To determine which of these are consistently more important is an essential aim of the paper. The third section assesses the degree to which accountability has been achieved in any of these elections—those to the Verkhovna Rada of 1994, 1998, and 2002, and the presidential elections of 1994, 1999, and 2004. A penultimate section is devoted to evaluating the policy consequences of these elections: what difference have Ukraine's elections made to policies over the past decade? In the concluding portion, a characterization of the emerging party system is given along with a summing-up on the voting behaviour of Ukrainians in the post-communist era.     

Die politisierte Sozialstruktur als mittelfristig stabile Basis einer deutschen Normalwahl

A normal vote is a hypothetical election result following exclusively from predispositions of voters towards political parties which result from long-term or middle-term influences. The influence of short-term factors like attractive candidates or issues from the recent campaign have to be eliminated within the abstract model. As an operationalization for German Bundestag elections for this purpose the average vote intentions of population groups are used which are part of the politicized German social structures such as catholics, especially when they attend church frequently, or employees (Arbeitnehmer) and union members who have formed enduring coalitions with a political party. This operationalization is compared with a model originally developed for the United States. According to this model, the long-term factor is measured by party identification. All Bundestag elections of the Kohl era are analyzed, for which the Politbarometer surveys of the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Mannheim, immediately before the Bundestag elections are used as a data basis. The vote intentions which can be derived from the politicized social structure are shown to be a stabile basis for a German normal vote so that it makes sense to compute normal vote results from 1983 to 1998.     

The causes of union political involvement: A longitudinal analysis

This study examines the political involvement of unions over the 1978, 1980, and 1982 congressional elections. An empirical model focusing on the campaign contributions made by unions and the number of registered lobbyists employed by unions is elaborated and tested. The findings suggest that unions’ political activities are systematically undertaken and that they have increased dramatically over the past three elections. Specific characteristics of unions, such as membership size and dependence on governmental regulations, directly affect the political involvement of unions. Further, given the current economic and political climate, it is likely that this political action will continue to increase. The authors are grateful to Jack Fiorito, Cynthia Gramm, David Lewin, Frank Lichtenberg, two anonymous referees, and the participants in the labor seminars at the University of Illinois and the University of Iowa for helpful comments on an earlier version of this study.     

POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE NEW KEYNESIAN MODEL

This paper tests various political business cycle theories in a New Keynesian model with a monetary and fiscal policy mix. All the policy coefficients, the target levels of inflation and the budget deficit, the firms' frequency of price setting, and the standard deviations of the structural shocks are allowed to depend on “political” regimes: a preelection versus postelection regime, a regime that depends on whether the president (or the Fed chairman) is a Democrat or a Republican, and a regime under which the president and the Fed chairman share party affiliation in preelection quarters or not. The results provide evidence that several coefficients are influenced by political variables. The best‐fitting specification, in fact, is one that allows coefficients to vary according to a regime that depends on whether the economy is in the few quarters before a presidential election or not. Monetary policy becomes considerably more inertial before elections and fiscal policy deviations from a simple rule are more common. There is some evidence that policies become more expansionary before elections, but this evidence disappears for monetary policy in the post‐1985 sample. (JEL C11, D72, E32, E52, E58, E63)     

Labor and the democratic party: A report on the 1998 elections

The nature of the relationship between organized labor and the Democratic party — still much debated among scholars —can be usefully examined through an analysis of the role of unions in the 1998 congressional elections. Evidence drawn from a wide range of sources shows that the AFL- CIO and its affiliated unions devoted considerable financial and organizational resources to mobilizing union members and allied con-stituencies to vote for Democratic candidates. Combined with the unions' direct finan-cial contributions to campaigns, this activity made unions important players in the elections and helped project an image of potency and effectiveness in the news media and among politicians. As a result, the labor/Democrat alliance remained stronger than one would expect on the basis of union density figures alone.     

Gleich und gleich gesellt sich gern — auch im Wahlkampf?

Does the well-known effect of social position on party preference depend on the distance to election day? Based on findings on campaign effects, it is argued that the effect of social position on party preference could vary over time, especially it may react on changes in political communication in campaign phases: parties appeal to their social bases, and therefore the effect of social position on party preference may rise in election campaigns; furthermore, this means that throughout a parliamentary term the partisan effect of social position should first weaken and later rise again. These hypotheses are tested empirically against trend data (Politbarometer) and panel data covering the German federal elections 1972 to 1998. Empirically, however, the core hypotheses are rejected: the structuring effect of social position is almost constant throughout parliamentary terms. Hence, federal election campaigns in Germany do not strengthen the partisan effect of social position substantially.     

Economic Partisan Advantages in Congressional Contests: 1938-1978

Two broad categories of variables have been used to explainthe dynamics of national forces on congressional elections:presidential and party-related forces. Present research hasemphasized presidential forces in analyzing congressional electionoutcomes, especially with respect to the impact of economicconditions, but this emphasis has resulted in a lack of attentionto other variables that are linked to the major parties ratherthan incumbent presidents. Meaningful empirical relationshipsmay have been inadvertently disregarded because they contradictexpectations derived from an "incumbency hypothesis." This articlesuggests that there are party-related forces operating on congressionalelections, aside from party affiliation, that provide consistentand long-term electoral advantages to candidates of the parties,irrespective of which party controls the presidency. We arguethat the economic policy emphases and historical records ofthe major parties interact with economic conditions such asunemployment and inflation to yield advantages that accrue tothe candidates at election time; these effects are termed economicpartisan advantages.     

Sex scandals: A cross-cultural analysis of image repair strategies in the cases of Bill Clinton and Silvio Berlusconi

The former President of the United States, Bill Clinton, and the current Prime Minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, do not have many things in common save one: both have been involved in highly publicized sex-related scandals during their respective mandates. And yet in both cases, from the beginning, each safeguarded his position and managed to keep a significant percentage of the public opinion on his side. This paper argues that although the image restoration strategies of Berlusconi and Clinton were substantially different in content and form, they were both appropiate in their cultural contexts. A cross-cultural examination of the cultural dynamics of these two distinct nations shows that the effectiveness of image restoration strategies can vary greatly according to cultural, political and media variables of each country.     

The Political Economy of FEMA Disaster Payments

We find that presidential and congressional influences affect the rate of disaster declaration and the allocation of FEMA disaster expenditures across states. States politically important to the president have a higher rate of disaster declaration by the president, and disaster expenditures are higher in states having congressional representation on FEMA oversight committees. Election year impacts are also found. Our models predict that nearly half of all disaster relief is motivated politically rather than by need. The findings reject a purely altruistic model of FEMA assistance and question the relative effectiveness of government versus private disaster relief.     

Stewardship,credibility and political communications: A content analysis of the 2016 election

Public participation in the democratic process and trust in elected leaders are both declining. Drawing on research from the fields of public relations and communications, this content analysis examines political communication through the lens of credibility and stewardship, both concepts central to predicting favorable relationship maintenance outcomes. In this analysis of all presidential, Senate and congressional candidates in the 2016 election, findings indicated that candidates more commonly communicate ways to provide support for the campaign (relationship nurturing), than demonstrating that they are worthy of being entrusted by the public. In addition, candidates’ communication primarily centered on the candidate being a credible source, neglecting other strategies for demonstrating credibility (digital and content). While there were no significant differences by party affiliation, incumbents and presidential candidates were more likely to communicate some forms of stewardship and credibility.     

How important are political interest and internal political efficacy in the prediction of political participation? Longitudinal evidence from Germany / La importancia del interés en la polític y dae la eficacia política interna en la predicción de la participación política. Datos longitudinales originados en Alemania

This study aims to disentangle the effects of interest in politics and internal political efficacy in the prediction of different political activities. The analysis examines the hypothesis that political interest is a more important precursor of electoral and unconventional political participation, and that both political interest and efficacy are required to promote participation in political parties. Using the German Longitudinal Election Study, multiple regression analyses yield that political efficacy is a strong and positive predictor of intentions to participate in party politics and unconventional political behaviour. Political interest has differential effects on voting conditional on whether respondents are surveyed before or after elections, and differential moderated effects appear for conventional and unconventional political action. The findings are discussed with respect to the importance of political interest and efficacy for citizen participation.     

Congressional support for unions’ positions across diverse legislation

Organized labor has become increasingly active in national politics. This development has encouraged research into union political activities, particularly in the area of legislative politics. But little research has been published on the basis of congressional support for union positions on diverse public policy items. This paper has examined the correlates of congressional support for unions’ positions across 33 roll-call votes taken in the first session of the 98th Congress. Empirical analyses suggest that certain factors, such as legislators’ party affiliation and constituents’ ideology, are consistent correlates of such support across diverse legislation. The authors wish to thank John Delaney and Jack Fiorito for their generous comments on a previous version of the paper. They also wish to thank the union lobbyists who granted interviews. A Faculty Research Grant from the Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, provided partial support.     

The Political Glass Ceiling

Abstract

Why has the integration of women into elective office, particularly Congress, been so slow? We argue that incumbency and the general lack of competition in American elections serve as a “political glass ceiling,” having a dampening effect on the number of women running in both primary and general U.S. House elections. With data from House elections from 1978-1998, we find that although there have been general upward trends in the number of women running in primaries, winning primaries, and winning election to Congress, there is a distinct gender gap between the parties. The growth in the presence of women since 1988 is largely a Democratic phenomenon. In addition, women are strategic in their decisions regarding whether or not they will run; the likelihood of success influences the decision to become a candidate. Women are far more likely to run in districts with an open seat than they are in districts where they would face a safe incumbent. This implies that the number of women entering the House depends upon the political cycle of redistricting or unanticipated events and “crises” that create large numbers of open seats.     

Tweeting democracy? Examining Twitter as an online public relations strategy for congressional campaigns’

Considering the integral relationship between public relations and democracy (Martinelli, 2011) coupled with the growing use of social media for democratic aims (Smith, 2011) the current study examines the effectiveness of Twitter as a public relations communications tool for congressional campaigns. Specifically, as a means of testing Twitter's effectiveness in informing and engaging voters, congressional candidate and political party Twitter use for all 435 U.S. House of Representatives races (N = 1284) are compared with 2010 election outcomes. Results indicate that candidates’ Twitter use significantly increased their odds of winning, controlling for incumbency and Party ID. Additionally, significant differences between incumbents’ and challengers’ Twitter use during the election cycle emerged, which has important implications for public relations practices aimed at achieving democratic outcomes.     

Generic frame building in the 2008 Austrian elections

Media critics repeatedly refer to the adversarial and trivializing nature of contemporary political journalism, whereas the role of political public relations in the formation of these aspects of public political discourse is widely neglected. To gain empirical insight into the formation of negativity, dramatization, game- and conflict-centeredness in campaign communication in the 2008 Austrian elections, this study introduces a biaxial matrix localizing levels of confrontation (negativity and conflict) and entertainment (game and drama). The analysis rests on the comparative investigation of generic frames in political parties’ PR and the media, and the examination of underlying frame building processes. The role of journalism and political public relations in shaping campaign communication is investigated by utilizing concerted content analyses of newspaper and TV news coverage and party press releases. The study finds that Austrian party and media communication can be predominantly categorized as antagonistic substance, characterized by high levels of confrontation (negativity and conflict) and lower levels of entertainment (game and drama). The empirical investigation outlines that conflict and negativity are prevalent features of the electoral communication of Austrian parties and the media likewise, whereby party press releases are even more marked by confrontation and entertainment framing than the subsequent media coverage. In addition, the media are not the principal and exclusive sponsors of confrontation and entertainment in electoral communication; rather, they even moderately decrease conflict and drama as compared to the impulses set by political PR.     

Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977 2002

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White Houseis the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning. In a recentPOQ piece, Murray and Howard (2002) [Public Opinion Quarterly66:527–558] explore one indicator of the "permanent campaign,"the extent to which Presidents Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,and Clinton commissioned independent opinion polls and focusgroups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering.Murray and Howard suggest that while a sophisticated pollingoperation has been institutionalized in the White House, thereis substantial variation in how much a president uses this operation.In this article, we model presidential polling expendituresover time using monthly figures. We find that presidents donot vary significantly in the average amount spent per monthon polls. There are, however, two recurring patterns of variationwithin presidential administrations: Presidents tend to spendsignificantly more on internal polling during the most intensemonths of a presidential reelection campaign; and polling expendituresincrease over the course of each presidential term. These findingssuggest that there are common forces (e.g., elections, naturaldecline in support) that have driven all presidents since Fordto poll.     

Class struggle in campaign finance? Political action committee contributions in the 1984 elections

Pluralist and class-based theories offer alternative hypotheses about the political behavior of organized interests in the United States. Using network methods and data on political action committees' (PAC) contributions to congressional candidates in the 1984 elections, we identify interest groups with politically similar behavior in an attempt to assess these perspectives concerning elites in the United States. The analysis includes corporate, labor, membership association, and nonconnected PACs. Counter to pluralist expectations, we find just two large groups—one primarily business oriented and the other primarily labor/public-interest oriented. Our findings thus support a class-based interpretation of the nature of organized interests. These findings are framed in terms of the meaning of unity and fragmentation.     

The democratic interface: technology,political organization,and diverging patterns of electoral representation

Democracies are experiencing historic disruptions affecting how people engage with core institutions such as the press, civil society organizations, parties, and elections. These processes of citizen interaction with institutions operate as a democratic interface shaping self-government and the quality of public life. The electoral dimension of the interface is important, as its operation can affect all others. This analysis explores a growing left-right imbalance in the electoral connection between citizens, parties, elections, and government. This imbalance is due, in part, to divergent left-right preferences for political engagement, organization, and communication. Support on the right for clearer social rules and simpler moral, racial and nationalist agendas are compatible with hierarchical, leader-centered party organizations that compete more effectively in elections. Parties on the left currently face greater challenges engaging citizens due to the popular meta-ideology of diversity and inclusiveness and demands for direct or deliberative democracy. What we term connective parties are developing technologies to perform core organizational functions, and some have achieved electoral success. However, when connective parties on the left try to develop shared authority processes, online and offline, they face significant challenges competing with more conventionally organized parties on the right.     

The Role of Corporations in the 1980 U.S. Congressional Elections*

The issues of whether and how corporate campaign donations affect the operation of American elections have recently become the focus of public and scholarly debate. Using Federal Election Commission campaign finance data, this analysis identifies a link betwren contributions from business PACs and candidate success in the 1980 U.S. congressional elections. Findings also confirm an association between corporate support and legislative voting for candidates re-elected in 1980. Candidates heavily supported by business PACs during the campaign did better at the polls and were more likely to vote conservatively if elected than those not so strongly endorsed by economic interests. Results are discussed in terms of various theories of the state as well as their relevance to potential election finance reforms.