Insuring September 11th: Market Recovery and Transparency

The terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center caused unprecedented economic and structural ramifications in the insurance markets, resulting in considerable uncertainty and informational asymmetry. We test several theoretical models of how markets respond to and recover from extreme capital shocks. Using the capacity constraint, post-loss investment and implicit insurance contract models, we develop testable hypotheses predicting the temporal and cross sectional variation in insurance company stock prices following September 11th. We find evidence consistent with the models' predictions, in particular, the predictions regarding relations between net losses and leverage and stock price performance after the shock.     

Applied general equilibrium modeling for long-term energy policy in Germany

The energy model is based on an extension of applied general equilibrium models of the Leontief input-output type, first implemented by Hudson and Jorgenson (1974). One objective of our project is to choose specifications of sectoral production and cost functions that permit us to estimate the unknown parameters of the price functions and input demand functions from a single input-output table in ten energy and 35 non-energy industries. Our second objective is to determine the price for capital and labor as well as the components of final demand endogenously instead of using a separate growth model as an engine for the economic development. Our third objective is to combine the concept of price-dependent substitution within the input structure with the concept of vintage coefficients for the latest plants. By this we incorporate into the input-output analysis the effect on growth as a result of investment, the effect on capacity as a result of new plants, and the effect on prices as a result of new technologies. An application of the model shows the long-term impact on growth and prices under alternative technologies in the electricity industry (nuclear or coal-fired power plants).     

Availability Crises in Insurance Markets: Optimal Contracts with Asymmetric Information and Capacity Constraints

Insurance markets sometimes exhibit "crises" in which prices rise dramatically and coverage is unavailable or is rationed at the new prices. A recent explanation for such crises is the "capacity constraint" model of Gron and Winter. Crises usually follow sudden and large depletions in insurers' equity or surplus. The capacity constraint model argues that frictional costs in replacing surplus, and limited liability, give rise to a kinked insurance supply function and that crises arise from discontinuous short term adjustments around the kink. While this model explains much about liability insurance crises, it still leaves unexplained their most prominent feature; that insurance is rationed or unavailable. We follow their insight in looking to equity shocks and capital market frictions to explain crises and combine this with a model of optimal risk sharing contracts under the information conditions characteristic of this market. We use implicit long term contracts with truth telling constraints to address information asymmetries and this allows us to model crises that exhibit rationing. Our model is tested in the market most dramatically affected by such crises in the 1980‘s, the general liability insurance market.     

One-sided commitment in dynamic insurance contracts: Evidence from private health insurance in Germany

This paper studies long-term private health insurance (PHI) in Germany. It describes the main actuarial principles of premium calculation and relates these to existing theory. In the German PHI policyholders do not commit to renewing their insurance contracts, but insurers commit to offering renewal at a premium rate that does not reflect revealed future information about the insured risk. We show that empirical results are consistent with theoretical predictions from one-sided commitment models: front-loading in premiums generates a lock-in of consumers, and more front-loading is generally associated with lower rates of lapse. Due to a lack of consumer commitment, dynamic information revelation about risk type implies that high-risk policyholders are more likely to retain their PHI contracts than are low-risk types.     

Agricultural policy modelling under imperfect competition

This study evaluates the role of imperfect competition in determining the agri-food policies impact assessment outcomes. In most impact studies, the supply chain between agricultural production and final consumption is modelled in a perfectly competitive framework. However, there is a growing attention of stakeholders for the presence of imperfectly competitive markets, with the retail sector often being under investigation. This issue is empirically analysed with an application to the dairy industry. First, the degree of market power is estimated using a multi-output demand and price transmission equation system. Then, this model is used for policy simulation with the perfect competition outcome taken as a benchmark to evaluate the impact of imperfect competition. Results show a significant degree of market power in the dairy industry with implications on the projected policy scenarios. Moreover, the imperfect competition model alters the price transmission mechanisms, generating more flexible price trends.     

等价交换中的不平等问题研究

劳动生产率差异、供求非均衡、垄断、非对称信息和非市场定价等条件下的商品交换都会产生不平等问题,但这类不平等问题都源于不等价交换。实际上,商品的等价交换仍然会产生不平等问题,其直接原因在于生产价格的形成,而生产价格的形成是隶属于不同所有者或利益主体的资本追逐利润的结果。生产价格形成后,价值(剩余价值)在不同产业或地区之间发生了转移,劳动投入和所得不再完全一致。不过,这种不一致在一国范围内和世界市场上具有本质的区别。     

A model of the inflationary process in six major O.E.C.D. economies: Empirical results and policy implications

In contrast to most recent empirical work on inflation which has concentrated on the size and stability of coefficients in the wage equation, this paper provides a reexamination of the price equation. Evidence is presented on the structural determinants of inflation in six large industrial nations. It is demonstrated that price equations which include capital costs and excess demand among the regressors perform exceedingly well according to the usual statistical criteria. The results of this study indicate that the inflationary process possesses a high degree of uniformity among the larger industrial countries. This pertains not only with respect to the specific independent variables in price equations, but also with respect to the high degree of uniformity of the estimated coefficients. Additionally, the findings indicate that lower productivity growth and higher capital costs have contributed significantly to the inflationary process since 1974. Furthermore, since higher capital costs are one consequence of tighter monetary policies, the adoption of such policies in response to the two oil price shocks of the 1970s may have offset their intended deflationary effects on prices through the linkage of wage costs and aggregate demand.     

宗教信仰选择：一个西方宗教经济学的文献梳理

本文在回顾归纳国外宗教经济学相关理论和经验成果的基础上,建立了“供给-需求”分析框架。笔者认为,既有宗教经济学理论主要从供给和需求两个角度来解释信仰选择的作用机制。宗教市场理论从供给出发,认为宗教市场结构是宗教信仰的重要决定因素;宗教社会资本理论、宗教家庭生产模型、宗教人力资本模型和宗教事后保障模型则从需求角度出发,分别强调社会网络的人际依恋、宗教参与的机会成本、宗教产品的生产效率和宗教组织的公共物品供给因素等在宗教信仰选择方面发挥的影响。改革开放以来中国社会宗教信仰领域发生了极大的变化,引入宗教经济学视野一方面能为考察分析当今中国宗教信仰现状及推动其理论发展带来相应的契机,另一方面应考虑中国与西方社会之间的差异以及特殊性,对该视野的运用要有所甄别。     

Energy supply shocks: Macroeconomic consequences for Ukraine

In exploring the short-term macroeconomic effects of energy supply shocks in Ukraine, this paper relies on the simplifying assumption that enterprises face economic regulation but not ownership uncertainty or a soft budget constraint that would adversely affect their behavior. In a sense, it assumes that Ukraine's economy is already at the second stage of reform, when ownership, contract-enforcement, and hard budget constraint questions are less of an issue. Under these assumptions and if real wages are protected, the analysis yields clear messages. Protecting the domestic economy by not passing through external price increases may cushion the decline in production and social welfare, but at a heavy cost to savings and investment; not only does it postpone adjustment and the emergence of a competitive economy, but it also deprives the economy of investible resources. Passing through external price increases while maintaining a fixed-price regime may improve the mobilization of resources but at a heavy cost to output and welfare, because it induces a heavy contraction in activity. Liberalizing prices in the nonenergy sectors in conjunction with passing through external price increases allows these sectors to generate the larger resource transfers required by a deteriorating terms of trade, in turn pulling up output; the economy can settle at a higher level of activity and welfare than in the presence of fixed prices. The conclusion is that Ukraine must clarify ownership and contract-enforcement issues as well as harden the budget constraints of enterprises as rapidly as possible, liberalize nonenergy prices at a minimum, and begin adjusting domestic energy prices to reflect the opportunity cost of these resources. Since the fall of 1994, Ukraine has proceeded to liberalize its price and trade regime, which should bring the economy a long way to recovery as outlined in this paper.     

北京市保险税收研究

北京市的保险业在近二十年里发展迅速,但2 0 0 4年保费收入增长缓慢甚至出现负增长。而北京作为一个首都,即将举办2 0 0 8年奥运会,发展保险的需求非常迫切。在影响保险业发展的要素中,税收是一个很重要的因素。本文从保险公司、投保人以及个人代理人的税赋情况出发,研究如何从税收的角度更好地促进北京市保险业的发展,并提出了相关的政策建议。     

McCarran-Ferguson Act reform: More competition or more regulation?

The antitrust exemptions provided by the McCarran-Ferguson Act are often identified as the cause of a variety of problems that have plagued the property-liability insurance industry in the last decade. In particular, proponents of repeal of the Act suggest that it has facilitated anticompetitive behavior by insurers, which in turn contributed to the liability and auto insurance crises of the 1980s. We examine industry structure, behavior, and performance and assess possible market imperfections that may justify price regulation and special antitrust treatment. We find that the major barrier to effective competition is state rate regulation rather than anticompetitive behavior. We examine evidence on the causes of the liability and auto insurance crises and conclude that they are readily explained by changes in market conditions and regulatory constraints rather than anticompetitive behavior. While there is no need for the broad antitrust exemptions contained in the Act, there is a danger that repeal will lead to more inefficient price regulation unless reform of the Act includes restrictions on state rate regulation. We propose reform legislation that both narrows the industry's antitrust exmption and promotes competition.     

我国商品住宅价格调控政策效果研究

1998年以来,我国房地产行业发展迅速,并逐步成为国民经济的支柱产业,极大地推动了我国的经济增长。但房价的过快增长也增加了人们的生活压力,并对经济运行造成不利影响。为了抑制房价的过快增长,国家推出了一系列的调控政策,包括金融政策、土地政策和税收政策。2010年政府推出了限购政策,通过抑制需求来控制房价。研究表明:1998至2002年的调控政策取得了较好的效果;2003至2008年调控效果不佳;2008年底至2009年政府并没有对房价进行有力调控;2009年末至2012年初,限购令的效果非常明显。     

Long-term care insurance and bequests as instruments for shaping intergenerational relationships

The growing demand for long-term care (LTC) causes the relationship between children and their parents to gain increased importance for society. Parents may create incentives for children to provide LTC through bequests, or they may purchase LTC insurance. While these instruments have been analyzed separately in the literature, this article shows that optimal LTC insurance must be small in the presence of bequests. Thus, the failure of private LTC insurance to diffuse into middle-class households may be explained by the fact that the bequest instrument is fully available to the current generation of parents, who for the first time since 1914 are in a position to bequeath an intact stock of capital in major industrialized countries.     

Uncertain indemnity and the demand for insurance

This paper considers the demand for insurance in a model with uncertain indemnity. Uncertain indemnity tends to increase the demand for insurance for precautionary reasons, but it also tends to decrease the demand due to the risk created by indemnity uncertainty. When the coefficient of relative prudence is not too large, uncertain indemnity reduces the demand for insurance and partial coverage is optimal even at actuarially fair premiums. In addition, insurance may be an inferior good or a normal good, depending on the behavior of absolute risk aversion and the magnitude of the coefficient of relative risk aversion.     

我国人口老龄化背景下养老产业发展问题研究

在新经济常态背景下,随着人口老龄化程度不断加深,我国财政支出将面临越来越大的挑战,发展养老产业将成为我国应对人口老龄化问题的必然选择。养老产业的发展有利于减轻政府负担,提高老年人生活质量,促进产业调整,缓解就业压力。我国的养老市场规模庞大,并且供不应求,政府高度关注养老产业,为我国大力发展养老产业提供了可行性。但是,尽管目前"保险系""央企系""房企系"等社会资本已经注入,养老产业仍然存在着政府的引导和支持力度不足,缺乏专业人才,相关产业整合难度大,国民养老观念落后等问题。因此,我国应尽快完善相关政策以加强引导和扶持的力度,积极调动社会资源使投资主体多元化,加强养老产业人才队伍建设,加快转变养老观念。     

Policy Simulation of the Indian Silk Industry through an Econometric Model

This study aimed at understanding and quantifying the relationship between the important variables of the various subsectors of the Indian silk industry through an econometric simulation model, and using the model for forecasting as well as policy simulations. Forecasts of the endogenous variables of the system (demand, supply, and prices of mulberry cocoons, raw silk, and silk fabric) for the period 1991–92 to 2000–01 indicates that the growth in the industry will slow down in the future. Policy simulations were undertaken to assess the changes in the import price of raw silk, export price of fabrics, and regulation of the quantity of imports of raw silk on the silk industry. While imports and exports were closely linked, their impact on the silk industry was not very high. It was also revealed that the income of the consumers and mulberry acreage have significant influence on the industry.     

2006年国际油价预测及对以后走势的判断

预测国际油价是世界各国难以割舍的课题和研究的热点问题之一。2005年国际油价走势远远超出较为合理的域值范围;影响2005年国际油价上涨的原因很多,但影响国际油价的因素主要是:经济增长、欧佩克生产能力、非欧佩克生产能力、石油需求量、天然气价格、煤价、石油消费弹性系数、欧佩克供求差额、非欧佩克供求差额、库存等;同时,在确定国际油价预测模型的基础上,对2006-2010年国际油价走势进行判断。     

中国农地流转供求态势探析

农地流转取决于有效的农地需求和农地供给,通过中国农地市场流转理论决策模型的研究,动态考察当前中国农产品价格、非生产性收益、生产性成本、非生产性成本、土地使用成本、土地交易成本等因素对农地供求的影响作用,可得出结论:中国农村土地市场流转供求态势既存在有效供给不足,同时还存在有效需求不足。为此,促进中国农村土地使用权市场流转,其前提是打破垄断,培育市场,大力发展与农业经营紧密相关的“非农产业”,创造市场需求主体。     

The economic effects of common agricultural policy on Mediterranean montado/dehesa ecosystem

The decoupling of CAP payments leads production decisions and resources allocation to be more dependent on market prices and competitive advantages. The objective of this paper is to assess the effects of CAP trends on the montado/dehesa traditional ecosystem of Mediterranean regions in terms of farm income, land, labour and capital. A positive mathematical supply model disaggregated by the montado agro-forestry production systems of the Alentejo region in southern Portugal is developed. The results show that decoupling payments of CAP have negative economic effects on agricultural activities and resource use. Agricultural income increases with single farm payments but the foreseen increases in prices do not compensate the loss of the Agenda 2000 area payments in terms of competitiveness. These results reinforce the need to promote alternative agricultural and non-agricultural activities and policies in Mediterranean rural European areas and regions.     

The economics of adding and subdividing independent risks: Some comparative statics results

In this paper we address the problem of determining whether adding independent risks or subdividing them is a good substitute for insurance. Despite the fact that accepting more i.i.d. risks increases total risk, it is shown that some risk-averse decision makers can rationally reduce their demand for insurance by doing so. Similarly, a better diversified portfolio of i.i.d. risky assets can rationally be more insured, even if diversification is a risk-reduction scheme. We derive conditions sufficient to obtain unambiguous comparative statics results. Assuming that absolute risk aversion is decreasing and that the fourth derivative of the utility function is positive, we show that diversification is an exceptionally good substitute for insurance. Under the same conditions, adding independent risks to wealth reduces the demand for insurance on each unit.