Nonmarital Childbearing in Russia: Second Demographic Transition or Pattern of Disadvantage?

Using retrospective union, birth, and education histories that span 1980–2003, this study investigates nonmarital childbearing in contemporary Russia. We employ a combination of methods to decompose fertility rates by union status and analyze the processes that lead to a nonmarital birth. We find that the increase in the percentage of nonmarital births was driven mainly by the growing proportion of women who cohabit before conception, not changing fertility behavior of cohabitors or changes in union behavior after conception. The relationship between education and nonmarital childbearing has remained stable: the least-educated women have the highest birth rates within cohabitation and as single mothers, primarily because of their lower probability of legitimating a nonmarital conception. These findings suggest that nonmarital childbearing Russia has more in common with the pattern of disadvantage in the United States than with the second demographic transition. We also find several aspects of nonmarital childbearing that neither of these perspectives anticipates.     

The population explosion: Where is it leading?

Over the past few centuries world demography has been characterized by both continuous absolute growth and a steadily increasing rate of growth. From 1650 or earlier to at least 1957 it was always possible to say that never has world population been so large and never has the time necessary for it to double been so short. While there are now some signs to suggest that population doubling times are stabilizing, or even increasing, the population increase in absolute numbers is nevertheless greater each year, and the rate of growth may still be faster than a simple exponential function. There can be little doubt that too large a population, together with the pressures stemming from its demands for an even higher standard of living, sets requirements greater than our planet can safely sustain. This article reviews some aspects of global population data and population dynamics.     

The Death of Marriage? The Effects of New Forms of Legal Recognition on Marriage Rates in the United States

Some conservative groups argue that allowing same-sex couples to marry reduces the value of marriage to opposite-sex couples. This article examines how changes in U.S. legal recognition laws occurring between 1995 and 2010 designed to include same-sex couples have altered marriage rates in the United States. Using a difference-in-differences strategy that compares how marriage rates change after legal recognition in U.S. states that alter legal recognition versus states that do not, I find no evidence that allowing same-sex couples to marry reduces the opposite-sex marriage rate. Although the opposite-sex marriage rate is unaffected by same-sex couples marrying, it decreases when domestic partnerships are available to opposite-sex couples.     

The Only Gay in the Village? Everyday Life of Gays and Lesbians in Rural Slovenia

The article deals with the comparison of the characteristics, experiences, and perceptions of everyday life of gays and lesbians living in rural and urban areas of Slovenia. We focus on the following thematic aspects: (1) coming out; (2) intimate partnerships; (3) the access and the use of gay infrastructure; and (4) violence against gays and lesbians. The article also addresses and discusses the urban/rural divide as a Western construct that might not be completely applicable to other social and cultural contexts. Taking Slovenia as an example, this article questions the self-evidence of rural/urban divide as an analytical concept. On the basis of our research, we conclude that this concept requires continuous revisions and reinterpretations in a concrete social and cultural context(s). The characteristics of gay and lesbian everyday life either in rural or in urban context in Slovenia lead to the conclusion that even within a specific social and cultural context, the concept of urban/rural divide should be used carefully, taking into account complexities of everyday lives and various factors that influence them.     

Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Aging Populations?

Population and Environment - This report looks at the recent publication prepared by the UN Population Division which examines the demographic situation in most advanced nations, but especially in...     

On Development,Demography and Climate Change: The End of the World as We Know it?

This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO₂ during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable—with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult ‘long’ threats—such as that posed by HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course.This paper is a personal assessment of what is occurring with respect to the subject of global warming and climate change. Nevertheless it is an attempt to examine the topic objectively. The paper tries to concentrate on the essentials—from both the social and the environmental sciences—and, quite deliberately, it presents basic data on the subject for the reader's own consideration. The paper's subtitle is taken from a television program broadcast in January 2005 as part of UK Channel Four's War on Terra season. I thank Tim Forsyth, Chris Wilson, and especially Brian O'Neill for their help and advice. However, and most certainly, the usual disclaimer applies.     

The Consequences of Caregiving: Effects on Women’s Employment and Earnings

Caregiving to family members comprises a major part of familial obligations in the United States. Informal caregiving is unevenly distributed in society, with women performing most of the work and bearing the burden of its costs. This paper addresses the cost dimension of informal caregiving to family members by examining whether and how it penalizes women’s employment. Drawing data from the 1987 and 1992 National Survey of Families and Households, we examine whether and how caregiving transitions affect changes in women’s labor force participation and the implications of this caregiving transitions for their earnings. We calculate how these effects vary for demographically different groups of women: those older and younger, with and without high levels of education, and married and not married. Our findings reveal that for most women, the initiation of caregiving led to a substantial reduction in their weekly hours worked and annual earnings. However, the effects were different for various subgroups of women: those older, with fewer skills, and more competing roles paid substantial costs if they began caregiving between 1987 and 1992.     

The Effects of Grandparents on Children’s Schooling: Evidence From Rural China

The issue of whether the social class of grandparents affects grandchildren’s socioeconomic outcomes net of the characteristics of the middle generation is much debated in the social mobility literature. Using data from the 2002 Chinese Household Income Project, we investigate the direct effects of grandparents on grandchildren’s educational attainment in rural China. We find that the influence of grandparents is contingent on living arrangements. Although the educational level of coresident grandparents directly affects the educational attainment of their grandchildren, with an effect size similar to that of parental education, the education of noncoresident and deceased grandparents does not have any effect. These findings suggest that grandparents can directly affect grandchildren’s educational outcomes through sociopsychological pathways. Our study not only adds an important case study to the literature but also sheds new light on theoretical interpretations of grandparent effects when they are found.     

Does It Matter What She Wants? The Role of Individual Preferences Against Unmarried Motherhood in Young Women’s Likelihood of a Nonmarital First Birth

Most young people in the United States express the desire to marry. Norms at all socioeconomic levels posit marriage as the optimal context for childbearing. At the same time, nonmarital fertility accounts for approximately 40 % of U.S. births, experienced disproportionately by women with educational attainment less than a bachelor’s degree. Research has shown that women’s intentions for the number and timing of children and couples’ intent to marry are strong predictors of realized fertility and marriage. The present study investigates whether U.S. young women’s preferences about nonmarital fertility, as stated before childbearing begins, predict their likelihood of having a nonmarital first birth. I track marriage and fertility histories through ages 24–30 of women asked at ages 11–16 whether they would consider unmarried childbearing. One-quarter of women who responded “no” in fact had a nonmarital birth by age 24–30. The ability of women and their partners to access material resources in adulthood were, as expected, the strongest predictors of the likelihood of nonmarital childbearing. Nonetheless, I find that women who said they would not consider nonmarital childbearing had substantially higher hazards of fertility postponement and especially of marital fertility, even after controlling for race/ethnicity, mother’s educational attainment, family of origin intactness, self-efficacy and planning ability, perceived future prospects, and markers of own educational attainment and work experience into early adulthood.     

The Effects of College on Weight: Examining the “Freshman 15” Myth and Other Effects of College Over the Life Cycle

This study examines the effects of college on weight over much of the life cycle. I compare weights for college students with their weights before and after college and with the weights of noncollege peers using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). I also examine the longer-term effects of college measured almost three decades later. I find that college freshmen gain substantially less than the 15 pounds rumored to be typical for freshmen. Using difference models, individual-specific fixed-effects models, and instrumental variables models to control for various sources of potential bias, I find that freshman year college attendance is estimated to cause only about a one-pound increase. Supplemental results show that those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds gain more weight during the freshman college year. Longer term, having a college education consistently decreases weight. These negative effects have faded over the last 20 years, and they diminish as respondents approach middle age. These trends are more prevalent for whites and Hispanics than for blacks.     

Gendering Indicators of Health and Well-being: Is Quality of Life Gender Neutral?

The addition of social indicators and quality of life measures to the raft of traditional health indicators used to assess health and well-being has certainly provided a much-needed contextual understanding of health outcomes. However, most quality of life measures remain undifferentiated by gender. Outcomes can be disaggregated along age, class, ethnic, racial and gender dimensions but few quality of life measures (or social indicators for that matter) are sensitive to the subtle effects of gender socialization on health and well-being. Both social epidemiology and quality of life measures need to be gendered and differentiated to fully capture the diversity of womens and mens health experiences.     

The Best of Both Worlds?

The Disney Channel hit show, Hannah Montana, constructs contemporary US girlhood and notions of femininity in relation to celebrity, such that its primary girl characters, Hannah Montana, Miley Stewart, and Lilly Truscott, as well as star Miley Cyrus, are positioned as particularly post-feminist subjects. In such a context, each of these girls can be understood as having chosen to perform a femininity that finds its locus in the maintenance and control of the body, as an illustration of her power as a girl, though without reference to feminist gains or “empowerment” rhetoric. Via discursive, narrative, and ideological textual analysis, this project explores the circulation of a post-feminist sensibility, as Rosalind Gill refers to it, and its iterations and ramifications for constructions of girlhood in contemporary media foregrounding girls and attracting young female audiences.     

Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage?

We examine cohort trends in premarital first births for U.S. women born between 1920 and 1964. The rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. However, cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how premarital conceptions are resolved. We decompose observed cohort trends in premarital first births into components reflecting cohort trends in (1) the age-specific risk of a premarital conception taken to term; (2) the age-specific risk of first marriages not preceded by such a conception, which will influence women’s years of exposure to the risk of a premarital conception; and (3) whether a premarital conception is resolved by entering a first marriage before the resulting first birth (a “shotgun marriage”). For women born between 1920–1924 and 1945–1949, increases in premarital first births were primarily attributable to increases in premarital conceptions. For women born between 1945–1949 and 1960–1964, increases in premarital first births were primarily attributable to declines in responding to premarital conceptions by marrying before the birth. Trends in premarital first births were affected only modestly by the retreat from marriages not preceded by conceptions—a finding that holds for both whites and blacks. These results cast doubt on hypotheses concerning “marriageable” men and instead suggest that increases in premarital first births resulted initially from increases in premarital sex and then later from decreases in responding to a conception by marrying before a first birth.     

The Control of Population Growth Is the Function of the Central Government

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