Integer-valued moving average (INMA) process

A simple model for a stationary sequence of dependent integer-valued random variables {X_n} is given. The sequence to be called integer-valued moving average (INMA) process, is taken as the “survivals” of i.i.d. non-negative integervalued random variables. It is argued that the model’s structure reflects to some extent the mechanism generating real life data for many counting process and consequently it is useful for modelling such processes. Various properties for the special case in which {X_n} is Poisson INMA (1) process, such as the joint distribution, regression, time reversibility, along with the conditional and partial correlations, are discussed in details. Extension of the INMA of first order to higher order moving average is considered.     

Bayesian inferences related to shifting sequences and two-phase regression

The problem of estimating the switch point in a sequence of independent random variables is studied from a Bayesian viewpoint. Theoretical results and numerical examples are given for the normal sequence and two-phase regression.     

Asymptotic efficiency of model selection criteria: the nonzero mean gaussian ar(∞) case

Motivated by Shibata’s (1980) asymptotic efficiency results this paper dis-cusses the asymptotic efficiency of the order selected by a selection procedure for an infinite order autoregressive process with nonzero mean and unob servable errors that constitute a sequence of independent Gaussian random variables with mean zero and variance σ² The asymptotic efficiency is established for AIC–type selection criteria such as AIC’, FPE, and S_n(k). In addition, some asymptotic results about the estimators of the parameters of the process and the error–sequence are presented.     

Monitoring the mean of autocorrelated observations with one generally weighted moving average control chart

Traditionally, using a control chart to monitor a process assumes that process observations are normally and independently distributed. In fact, for many processes, products are either connected or autocorrelated and, consequently, obtained observations are autocorrelative rather than independent. In this scenario, applying an independence assumption instead of autocorrelation for process monitoring is unsuitable. This study examines a generally weighted moving average (GWMA) with a time-varying control chart for monitoring the mean of a process based on autocorrelated observations from a first-order autoregressive process (AR(1)) with random error. Simulation is utilized to evaluate the average run length (ARL) of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and GWMA control charts. Numerous comparisons of ARLs indicate that the GWMA control chart requires less time to detect various shifts at low levels of autocorrelation than those at high levels of autocorrelation. The GWMA control chart is more sensitive than the EWMA control chart for detecting small shifts in a process mean.     

Precise large deviations of aggregate claims in a compound size-dependent renewal risk model

In this paper, we introduce a compound size-dependent renewal risk model driven by two sequences of random sources. The individual claim sizes and their inter-arrival times form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random pairs with each pair obeying a specific dependence structure. The numbers of claims caused by individual events form another sequence of independent and identically distributed positive integer-valued random variables, independent of the random pairs above. Precise large deviations of aggregate claims for the compound size-dependent renewal risk model are investigated in the case of dominatedly varying claim sizes.     

A Note on Signed Rank Tests for the Changepoint Problem

We consider two classes of signed rank statistics to test for smooth or abrupt changepoints in sequences of independent random variables. We derive asymptotic null distributions and finite sample approximations for the two classes. We infer from a Monte Carlo power study that the signed rank statistics may compare favorably with parametric analogues in detecting abrupt changes in a sequence of independent normal random variables.     

Some Remarks on The Paper by Theodorescu and Wolff: "Sequential Estimation of Expectations in the Presence of Trend"

Recently Theodoresu and Wolff have proposed a sequence of random variables for estimating a sequence of constants satisfying a certain recurrence equation. Their problem, which is similar to some arising in stochastic approximation theory, was solved by using techniques from this theory. The present paper shows that the theory of sums of independent random variables is a more natural tool for tackling this problem.     

On some moving-average processes with exponentially distributed innovations

Summary In this paper we discusse the stationary sequence of random variables which are formed from an independent identically distributed sequence, according to the moving-average model of ordern. Some properties of the process are considered. The joint bivariate exponential distribution is given, as well as the distribution of the sum.     

Exponential inequalities for sums of unbounded ϕ-mixing sequence and their applications

In the article, the exponential inequalities for sums of unbounded ?-mixing sequence are given, which generalize the corresponding one for independent and identically distributed random variables. As applications, the strong law of large numbers and strong growth rate for ?-mixing random variables are obtained.     

Effect of systematic sampling on arima models

Given a general homogeneous non-stationary autoregressive integrated moving average process ARIMA(p,d,q), the corresponding model for the subseries obtained by a systematic sampling is derived. The article then shows that the sampled subseries approaches approximately to an integrated moving average process IMA(d,l), l≤(d-l), regardless of the autoregressive and moving average structures in the original series. In particular, the sampled subseries from an ARIMA (p,l,q) process approaches approximately to a simple random walk model.     

From Conditional Independence to Conditionally Negative Association: Some Preliminary Results

Conditional moment estimates on the cumulative sum of conditionally independent random variables are derived, conditional prophet inequalities for conditionally independent random variables are established, a comparison theorem on conditional moment inequalities between conditionally independent and conditionally negatively associated random variables is established. As applications of these results, a conditional Rosenthal type inequality and two conditional Kolmogorov exponential inequalities for conditionally negatively associated random variables are obtained.     

Counting certain binary strings

Consider a sequence of exchangeable or independent binary (i.e. zero-one) random variables. Numbers of strings with a fixed number of ones between two subsequent zeros are studied under an overlapping enumeration scheme. The respective waiting times are examined as well. Exact probability functions are obtained by means of combinatorial analysis and via recursive schemes in the case of an exchangeable and of an independent sequence, respectively. Explicit formulae for the mean values and variances of the number of strings are provided for both types of the sequences. For a Bernoulli sequence the asymptotic normality of the numbers of strings is established too. Indicative exchangeable and independent sequences, combined with numerical examples, clarify further the theoretical results.     

Asymptotic Properties of Random Weighted Empirical Distribution Function

This article studies the asymptotic properties of the random weighted empirical distribution function of independent random variables. Suppose X₁, X₂, ???, X_n is a sequence of independent random variables, and this sequence is not required to be identically distributed. Denote the empirical distribution function of the sequence by F_n(x). Based on the random weighting method and F_n(x), the random weighted empirical distribution function H_n(x) is constructed and the asymptotic properties of H_n are discussed. Under weak conditions, the Glivenko–Cantelli theorem and the central limit theorem for the random weighted empirical distribution function are obtained. The obtained results have also been applied to study the distribution functions of random errors of multiple sensors.     

Asymptotic properties of randomly indexed sequences of random variables

Conditions are given for a randomly indexed sequence of random variables to converge weakly. The key concept employed is the so-called generalized Anscombe condition. The results give a method of determining sequential stopping rules, which have the required accuracy of estimation of an unknown parameter in the case when the observations are not necessarily independent and identically distributed.     

Convergence results for sequences of quadratic forms

Let (XI,)be a sequence of independent random variables, and let Q_n= where for each N,(an:,k)is a doubly indexed sequence of weights. The convergence and the rate of convergence of the sequence of quadratic forms {Q_n} are studied. These quadratic forms are linear sums of dependent variables; however, their convergence properties are similar to those of linear sums of independent variables provided the variables have finite rth absolute moments with 0 < r 2.while the rate of convergence has not been obtained for r< 2, it is shown to be different from that of linear sums.     

Fourier methods for analyzing piecewise constant volatilities

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - We develop procedures for testing whether a sequence of independent random variables has constant variance. If this is fulfilled, the modulus of a...     

Random Level-Shift Time Series Models,ARIMA Approximations,and Level-Shift Detection

The main purpose of this article is to assess the performance of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models when occasional level shifts occur in the time series under study. A random level-shift time series model that allows the level of the process to change occasionally is introduced. Between two consecutive changes, the process behaves like the usual autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. In practice, a series generated from a random level-shift ARMA (RLARMA) model may be misspecified as an ARIMA process. The efficiency of this ARIMA approximation with respect to estimation of current level and forecasting is investigated. The results of examining a special case of an RLARMA model indicate that the ARIMA approximations are inadequate for estimating the current level, but they are robust for forecasting future observations except when there is a very low frequency of level shifts or when the series are highly negatively correlated. A level-shift detection procedure is presented to handle the low-frequency level-shift phenomena, and its usefulness in building models for forecasting is demonstrated.     

Large deviations for the L1-distance in kernel density estimation

We establish a large deviation limit theorem of Chernoff type for the L₁-distance between the nonparametric kernel density estimator and the underlying density. The estimation is based on a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. The rate function is well identified, distribution-free and independent of the choice of the kernel.     

On exact strong laws of large numbers for ratios of random variables and their applications

Abstract

We study the almost sure convergence of weighted sums of ratios of independent random variables satisfying some general, mild conditions. The obtained results are applied to exact laws for order statistics. An exact law for independent random variables which are nonidentically distributed is also proved and applied to ratios of adjacent order statistics for a sample of uniformly distributed random variables.