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1.
Leon F. Bouvier 《Population and environment》1990,11(3):193-202
A major Census Bureau study released in January 1989 has evoked renewed warnings in the media and among some population analysts that the U.S. faces population decline in the next century if it does not increase fertility and/or raise immigration. The report's middle scenario rests on an assumed future total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8, life expectancy of 81.2 years, and net immigration of 500,000 annually. These mid-range assumptions would yield a United States population of 268 million by 2000, peaking at 302 million in 2040 and falling to 292 million by 2080. Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are:
- that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population.
- that the high TFR of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow.
- that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's "high" assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic.
2.
Estimates of the size and structure of recent alien immigration to the United States are made. Substituting these revised estimates in the Series II projections of the U.S. Bureau of the Census implies a future U.S. population smaller than that implied by the Census Bureau’s estimates of immigration. The analysis of Coale (1972)—which calculates the decline in native-born fertility required to accommodate immigration and, at the same time, maintain a stationary population—is replicated, using both the Census Bureau’s estimates and the revised estimates reported here. The revised estimates indicate a smaller reduction in native fertility and a smaller ultimate size of the stationary population than are implied by the Census Bureau’s immigration estimates. The importance of age structure in all of these calculations is demonstrated. 相似文献
3.
In studying the complex determinants of human fertility, social scientists have given little attention to population density,
although reproduction has been shown to be density-dependent for a wide variety of other species. Using fixed effects models
on the time series of 145 countries and controlling for key social and economic variables, we find a consistent and significant
negative relationship between human fertility and population density. Moreover, we find that individual fertility preferences
also decline with population density. These findings suggest that population density should be included as a variable in future
studies of fertility determinants.
相似文献
Wolfgang LutzEmail: |
4.
Using confidential microdata from the US Census Bureau, we investigate the performance of Asian-owned businesses. Using regression
estimates and a special non-linear decomposition technique, we explore the role that class resources, such as financial capital
and human capital, play in contributing to the relative success of Asian businesses. We find that Asian-owned businesses are
more successful than white-owned businesses for two main reasons—Asian owners have high levels of human capital and their
businesses have substantial start-up capital. Using detailed information on both the owner and the firm, we estimate the explanatory
power of several additional factors.
相似文献
Robert W. Fairlie (Corresponding author)Email: |
5.
Jeffry A. Will Sharon C. Cobb Timothy J. Cheney 《Population research and policy review》2008,27(5):497-514
Minority groups, including African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians, especially in a growing middle class, comprise an emerging
market in the United States (Schwartz, Global Business Network, 2000). It is estimated that through 2025, the population of ethnic minorities in the United States will grow eight times
faster than the White population; by the year 2050, some estimates project that “minorities” will make up nearly 50% of the
United States population. As minority groups continue to grow in population, wealth, and buying power, it becomes imperative
that businesses understand the differences among different segments of the population that will be consuming their products.
This paper examines projected demographic changes for the State of Florida and the implications these changes have on increasing
market opportunities for businesses. Researchers from the Northeast Florida Center for Community Initiatives used Geographic
information systems (GIS) computer applications to conduct spatial analysis of U.S. Census Data, as well as proprietary economic
and social indicators, to develop an analysis of distribution of certain ethnicities in Florida. The purpose of this paper
is to identify potential areas of significant emerging market populations within Florida in order to improve service outreach
for various economic opportunities during the coming decade.
相似文献
Timothy J. Cheney |
6.
Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Joan Costa-Font Raphael Wittenberg Concepció Patxot Adelina Comas-Herrera Cristiano Gori Alessandra di Maio Linda Pickard Alessandro Pozzi Heinz Rothgang 《Social indicators research》2008,86(2):303-321
This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections
in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the
form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change
and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that
mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific
and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting
that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.
相似文献
Joan Costa-FontEmail: |
7.
Alternative Projections of the U.S. population 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest. 相似文献
8.
Alfonso Miranda 《Journal of population economics》2008,21(1):67-81
This paper examines how education and family background affect the fertility plans of young individuals in Mexico. Quantile
regression for count data is used for the analysis. Results indicate that education and family structure affect planned fertility
only at the tails of the conditional distribution. Education reduces planned fertility only among women with relatively strong
preferences towards children. An absent father reduces planned fertility mostly at the bottom of the conditional distribution.
相似文献
Alfonso MirandaEmail: |
9.
The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: some evidence for Spain 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
Raquel Carrasco Juan F. Jimeno A. Carolina Ortega 《Journal of population economics》2008,21(3):627-648
This paper provides an approximation to the labor market effects of immigrants in Spain, a country where labor market institutions
and immigration policy exhibit some peculiarities, during the second half of the 1990s, the period in which immigration flows
accelerated. By using alternative data sets, we estimate both the impact of legal and total immigration flows on the employment
rates and wages of native workers, accounting for the possible occupational and geographical mobility of immigrants and native-born
workers. Using different samples and estimation procedures, we have not found a significant negative effect of immigration
on either the employment rates or wages of native workers.
相似文献
A. Carolina OrtegaEmail: |
10.
Timothy J. Hatton 《Journal of population economics》2005,18(4):719-740
Since the 1970s Britain has gone from being a country of net emigration to one of net immigration, with a trend increase in
immigration of more than 100,000 per year. This paper represents the first attempt to model the variations in net migration
for British and for foreign citizens, across countries and over time. A simple economic model, which includes the selection
effects of differing income distributions at home and abroad, largely accounts for the variations in the data. The results
suggest that although improved economic performance in the UK relative to overseas has tended to increase immigration, rising
UK inequality has had an even larger effect. Immigration policies at home and abroad have also increased net immigration,
particularly in the 1990s.
相似文献
Timothy J. HattonEmail: |
11.
This paper studies natives’ economically motivated preferences over different levels of immigration of low-income earners. Immigration affects natives through both intra- and intergenerational redistribution programmes and in the labour market. Our analysis suggests, in a welfare state that looks after the poor and the aged, economic motivation does not necessarily lead a native to have an extreme opinion on the preferable level of immigration, although it causes disagreement among natives. We find, regardless of parameter values, high-income earners prefer at least as much immigration as low-income earners who, in turn, prefer at least as much immigration as pensioners. The median voter is then likely to be a low-income native.
相似文献
Yuji TamuraEmail: Fax: +44-24-76523032 |
12.
This paper studies child mortality and fertility in 61 developing countries including the Central Asian Republics (CARs). To control for simultaneity, an estimated value of fertility was used in the mortality equation and a final specification included only exogenous socio-economic, health and environmental variables. We confirm the importance of female literacy in explaining both fertility and mortality, and also find a measure of consumption for the poorest share of the population to be significant, while controlling for nutrition, health expenditure, and income distribution. Incidence of tuberculosis and female agricultural population proxy for environmental impacts, but in spite of these controls, approximately 41% additional mortality was estimated due to living in the CARs. The results fill gaps in the literature: we use a wider range of socio-economic and environmental health variables than previously in an encompassing analysis of mortality and fertility, and find evidence of excessive mortality in the CARs most likely linked to environmental degradation in the region.
相似文献
Jennifer S. FranzEmail: |
13.
Theodore Palivos 《Journal of population economics》2009,22(1):131-144
This paper analyzes the welfare effect of illegal immigration on the host country within a dynamic general equilibrium framework
and shows that it is positive for two reasons. First, immigrants are paid less than their marginal product, and second, after
an increase in immigration, domestic households find it optimal to increase their holdings of capital. It is also shown that
dynamic inefficiency may arise, despite the fact that the model is of the Ramsey type. Nevertheless, the introduction of a
minimum wage, which leads to job competition between domestic unskilled workers and immigrants reverses all of the above results.
相似文献
Theodore PalivosEmail: |
14.
This paper analyses the relation between public pensions, fertility and child care in a closed-economy overlapping generations
model with endogenous fertility. It is shown that raising a child involves two social externalities and that it is optimal
to introduce child allowances if the government redistributes income from the young to the old. The optimal child allowance
rises when longevity increases. If the costs of raising children depend positively on the wage, a third externality arises
and the returns to savings should be taxed.
相似文献
Lex MeijdamEmail: |
15.
Minorities such as ethnic and immigration groups have often been subject to exclusion through labor market discrimination, residential and employment segregation policies, business ownership regulations, restrictions on political participation, access to public services, and more. This paper studies the dynamics of minority exclusion. From the viewpoint of the dominant majority, the exclusion decision balances the motive to redistribute income in its favor and the interest in avoiding potential civic unrest or even violent confrontation with the minority. The analysis also has implications for immigration policies, suggesting that they have to take this group dynamics into account.
相似文献
Maurice SchiffEmail: |
16.
Growth and inequality: a demographic explanation 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
Kazutoshi Miyazawa 《Journal of population economics》2006,19(3):559-578
This paper investigates the relationship between growth and inequality from a demographic point of view. In an extended model of the accidental bequest with endogenous fertility, we analyze the effects of a decrease in old-age mortality rate on the equilibrium growth rate as well as on the income distribution. We show that the relationship between growth and inequality is at first positive and then may be negative in the process of population aging. The results are consistent with the empirical evidence in some developed countries.
相似文献
Kazutoshi MiyazawaEmail: |
17.
The earned income tax credit and fertility 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
Government programs designed to provide income safety nets often restrict eligibility to families with children, creating
an unintended fertility incentive. This paper considers whether dramatically changing incentives in the earned income tax
credit affect fertility rates in the USA. We use birth certificate data spanning the period 1990 to 1999 to test whether expansions
in the credit influenced birthrate among targeted families. While economic theory would predict a positive fertility effect
of the program for many eligible women, our results indicate that expanding the credit produced only extremely small reductions in higher order fertility among white women.
相似文献
Stacy Dickert-Conlin (Corresponding author)Email: |
18.
The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth is among the few surveys to provide multiple reports on respondents’ race and
ethnicity. Respondents were initially classified as Hispanic, black, or “other” on the basis of data collected during 1978
screener interviews. Respondents subsequently self-reported their “origin or descent” in 1979, and their race and Hispanic
origin in 2002; the latter questions conform to the federal standards adopted in 1997 and used in the 2000 census. We use
these data to (a) assess the size and nature of the multiracial population, (b) measure the degree of consistency among these
alternative race-related variables, and (c) devise a number of alternative race/ethnicity taxonomies and determine which does
the best job of explaining variation in log-wages. A key finding is that the explanatory power of race and ethnicity variables
improves considerably when we cross-classify respondents by race and Hispanic origin. Little information is lost when multiracial respondents are assigned to one of their reported race categories
because they make up only 1.3% of the sample.
相似文献
Alita NandiEmail: |
19.
Eric Neumayer 《Population and environment》2006,27(4):327-336
Some neo-Malthusians regard fertility as being kept in check by scarcities and constraints and, conversely, as being raised by economic prosperity. Since out-migration to developed countries and the receipt of food aid from developed countries relax the constraints imposed by a country’s carrying capacity, both will have a positive effect on fertility rates in developing countries. Moreover, better economic prospects will also raise fertility, all other things equal. This article provides an empirical test of these hypotheses derived from a neo-Malthusian theory of fertility change. The results fail to confirm the theory and often contradict it.
相似文献
Eric NeumayerEmail: Fax: +44-207-9557412 |
20.
How important is homeland education for refugees’ economic position in The Netherlands? 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
We use data on refugees admitted to The Netherlands that include registration of education in their homeland by immigration
officers. Such data are seldom available. We investigate the quality and reliability of the registrations and then use them
to assess effects on refugees’ economic position during the first 5 years after arrival. The most remarkable finding is the
absence of returns to higher education.
相似文献
Aslan ZorluEmail: |