Assessment of acceptance sampling plans using posterior distribution for a dependent process

In this study, performance of single acceptance sampling plans by attribute is investigated by using the distribution of fraction nonconformance (i.e. lot quality distribution) for a dependent production process. It is the aim of this study to demonstrate that, in order to emphasize consumer risk (i.e. the risk of accepting a bad lot), it is better to evaluate a sampling plan based upon its performance as assessed by the posterior distribution of fractions nonconforming in accepted lots. Similarly, it is the desired posterior distribution that sets the basis for designing a sampling plan. The prior distribution used in this study is derived from a Markovian model of dependence.     

Bayesian inference and prediction analysis of the power law process based on a natural conjugate prior

Under a natural conjugate prior with four hyperparameters, the importance sampling (IS) technique is applied to the Bayesian analysis of the power law process (PLP). Samples of the parameters of the PLP are obtained from IS. Based on these samples, not only the posterior analysis of parameters and some parameter functions in the PLP are performed conveniently, but also single-sample and two-sample prediction procedures are constructed easily. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the posterior mean of the parameter functions in the PLP is studied with respect to the hyperparameters of the natural conjugate prior and it can guide the selections of the hyperparameters directly. Coupled this sensitivity with the relations between the prior moments and the hyperparameters in the natural conjugate prior, it is possible to give directions about the selections of the prior moments to a certain degree. After some numerical experiments illustrate the rationality and feasibility of the proposed methods, an engineering example demonstrates its application.     

Bayesian methods for generalized linear models with covariates missing at random

The authors propose methods for Bayesian inference for generalized linear models with missing covariate data. They specify a parametric distribution for the covariates that is written as a sequence of one‐dimensional conditional distributions. They propose an informative class of joint prior distributions for the regression coefficients and the parameters arising from the covariate distributions. They examine the properties of the proposed prior and resulting posterior distributions. They also present a Bayesian criterion for comparing various models, and a calibration is derived for it. A detailed simulation is conducted and two real data sets are examined to demonstrate the methodology.     

Multivariate Bayesian variable selection and prediction

The multivariate regression model is considered with p regressors. A latent vector with p binary entries serves to identify one of two types of regression coefficients: those close to 0 and those not. Specializing our general distributional setting to the linear model with Gaussian errors and using natural conjugate prior distributions, we derive the marginal posterior distribution of the binary latent vector. Fast algorithms aid its direct computation, and in high dimensions these are supplemented by a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to sampling from the known posterior distribution. Problems with hundreds of regressor variables become quite feasible. We give a simple method of assigning the hyperparameters of the prior distribution. The posterior predictive distribution is derived and the approach illustrated on compositional analysis of data involving three sugars with 160 near infrared absorbances as regressors.     

A note on nonexistence of posterior moments

Bayesian analyses often take for granted the assumption that the posterior distribution has at least a first moment. They often include computed or estimated posterior means. In this note, the authors show an example of a Weibull distribution parameter where the theoretical posterior mean fails to exist for commonly used proper semi–conjugate priors. They also show that posterior moments can fail to exist with commonly used noninformative priors including Jeffreys, reference and matching priors, despite the fact that the posteriors are proper. Moreover, within a broad class of priors, the predictive distribution also has no mean. The authors illustrate the problem with a simulated example. Their results demonstrate that the unwitting use of estimated posterior means may yield unjustified conclusions.     

Variable selection in quantile regression via Gibbs sampling

Due to computational challenges and non-availability of conjugate prior distributions, Bayesian variable selection in quantile regression models is often a difficult task. In this paper, we address these two issues for quantile regression models. In particular, we develop an informative stochastic search variable selection (ISSVS) for quantile regression models that introduces an informative prior distribution. We adopt prior structures which incorporate historical data into the current data by quantifying them with a suitable prior distribution on the model parameters. This allows ISSVS to search more efficiently in the model space and choose the more likely models. In addition, a Gibbs sampler is derived to facilitate the computation of the posterior probabilities. A major advantage of ISSVS is that it avoids instability in the posterior estimates for the Gibbs sampler as well as convergence problems that may arise from choosing vague priors. Finally, the proposed methods are illustrated with both simulation and real data.     

Efficient Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with random censoring

This paper considers Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distribution with random censoring. The efficient Bayesian sampling plan for a general loss function is derived. This sampling plan possesses the property that it may make decisions prior to the end of the life test experiment, and its decision function is the same as the Bayes decision function which makes decisions based on data collected at the end of the life test experiment. Compared with the optimal Bayesian sampling plan of Chen et al. (2004), the efficient Bayesian sampling plan has the smaller Bayes risk due to the less duration time of life test experiment. Computations of the efficient Bayes risks for the conjugate prior are given. Numerical comparisons between the proposed efficient Bayesian sampling plan and the optimal Bayesian sampling plan of Chen et al. (2004) under two special decision losses, including the quadratic decision loss, are provided. Numerical results also demonstrate that the performance of the proposed efficient sampling plan is superior to that of the optimal sampling plan by Chen et al. (2004).     

Bayesian modeling of university first-year students' grades after placement test

University first-year students grades are naturally correlated with the scores obtained at placement tests. Often this characteristic leads the university grades in the first exams to be asymmetrically distributed. Motivated by the analysis of grades of the basic Statistics examination of first-year students, we discuss informative priors for the shape parameter of the skew-normal model, a class of distribution which account for several degree of asymmetry. Our proposed prior leads to closed-form full-conditional posterior distributions, particularly useful in Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is discussed for the joint vector of parameters and the method is applied to a real data set from the School of Economics, University of Padua, Italy. Our analysis reveals that the correlation between the placement test and the grades of first-year students leads to a measurable positive skewness of the distribution of the university grades.     

Disaggregation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Analysis

The problem of temporal disaggregation of time series is analyzed by means of Bayesian methods. The disaggregated values are obtained through a posterior distribution derived by using a diffuse prior on the parameters. Further analysis is carried out assuming alternative conjugate priors. The means of the different posterior distributions are shown to be equivalent to some sampling theory results. Bayesian prediction intervals are obtained. Forecasts for future disaggregated values are derived assuming a conjugate prior for the future aggregated value.     

Bayes estimation and prediction of the two-parameter gamma distribution

In this article, the Bayes estimates of two-parameter gamma distribution are considered. It is well known that the Bayes estimators of the two-parameter gamma distribution do not have compact form. In this paper, it is assumed that the scale parameter has a gamma prior and the shape parameter has any log-concave prior, and they are independently distributed. Under the above priors, we use Gibbs sampling technique to generate samples from the posterior density function. Based on the generated samples, we can compute the Bayes estimates of the unknown parameters and can also construct HPD credible intervals. We also compute the approximate Bayes estimates using Lindley's approximation under the assumption of gamma priors of the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the Bayes estimators with the classical estimators. One data analysis is performed for illustrative purposes. We further discuss the Bayesian prediction of future observation based on the observed sample and it is seen that the Gibbs sampling technique can be used quite effectively for estimating the posterior predictive density and also for constructing predictive intervals of the order statistics from the future sample.     

Optimal Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions based on hybrid censored samples

We study variable sampling plans for exponential distributions based on type-I hybrid censored samples. For this problem, two sampling plans based on the non-failure sample proportion and the conditional maximum likelihood estimator are proposed by Chen et al. [J. Chen, W. Chou, H. Wu, and H. Zhou, Designing acceptance sampling schemes for life testing with mixed censoring, Naval Res. Logist. 51 (2004), pp. 597–612] and Lin et al. [C.-T. Lin, Y.-L. Huang, and N. Balakrishnan, Exact Bayesian variable sampling plans for the exponential distribution based on type-I and type-II censored samples, Commun. Statist. Simul. Comput. 37 (2008), pp. 1101–1116], respectively. From the theoretic decision point of view, the preceding two sampling plans are not optimal due to their decision functions not being the Bayes decision functions. In this article, we consider the decision theoretic approach, and the optimal Bayesian sampling plan based on sufficient statistics is derived under a general loss function. Furthermore, for the conjugate prior distribution, the closed-form formula of the Bayes decision rule can be obtained under either the linear or quadratic decision loss. The resulting Bayesian sampling plan has the minimum Bayes risk, and hence it is better than the sampling plans proposed by Chen et al. (2004) and Lin et al. (2008). Numerical comparisons are given and demonstrate that the performance of the proposed Bayesian sampling plan is superior to that of Chen et al. (2004) and Lin et al. (2008).     

Bayesian estimation and prediction intervals for a Rayleigh distribution under a conjugate prior

This paper is an effort to obtain Bayes estimators of Rayleigh parameter and its associated risk based on a conjugate prior (square root inverted gamma prior) with respect to both symmetric loss function (squared error loss), and asymmetric loss function (precautionary loss function). We also derive the highest posterior density (HPD) interval for the Rayleigh parameter as well as the HPD prediction intervals for a future observation from this distribution. An illustrative example to test how the Rayleigh distribution fits a real data set is presented. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the Bayes estimates under different conditions.     

Bayesian life test sampling plans for the two parameter exponential distribution

In this paper we consider the determination of Bayesian life test acceptance sampling plans for finite lots when the underlying lifetime distribution is the two parameter exponential. It is assumed that the prior distribution is the natural conjugate prior, that the costs associated with the actions accept and reject are known functions of the lifetimes of the items, and that the cost of testing a sample is proportional to the duration of the test. Type 2 censored sampling is considered where a sample of size n is observed only until the rth failure occurs and the decision of whether to accept or reject the remainder of the lot is made on the basis of the r observed lifetimes. Obtaining the optimal sample size and the optimal censoring number are difficult problems when the location parameter of the distribution is restricted to be non-negative. The case when the positivity restriction on the location parameter is removed has been investigated. An example is provided for illustration.     

Bayesian Inference and Prediction Analysis of the Power Law Process Based on a Gamma Prior Distribution

Under a Gamma prior distribution, the importance sampling (IS) technique is applied to the Bayesian analysis of the Power Law Process (PLP). Samples of important parameters in the PLP are obtained from IS. Based on these samples, not only the posterior analyses of parameters and some functions of the parameter in the PLP can be performed conveniently, but also single-sample and two-sample predictions are constructed easily by the transformation formula of double integral. The sensitivity of the posterior mean of the parameter functions in the PLP is studied with respect to the prior moments in the Gamma prior distribution, and it can guide the selections of the prior moments. After some numerical experiments illustrate the rationality and feasibility of the proposed methods, an engineering example demonstrates its application.     

Bayesian estimation and prediction for the inverse weibull distribution under general progressive censoring

Abstract

This paper deals with Bayesian estimation and prediction for the inverse Weibull distribution with shape parameter α and scale parameter λ under general progressive censoring. We prove that the posterior conditional density functions of α and λ are both log-concave based on the assumption that λ has a gamma prior distribution and α follows a prior distribution with log-concave density. Then, we present the Gibbs sampling strategy to estimate under squared-error loss any function of the unknown parameter vector (α, λ) and find credible intervals, as well as to obtain prediction intervals for future order statistics. Monte Carlo simulations are given to compare the performance of Bayesian estimators derived via Gibbs sampling with the corresponding maximum likelihood estimators, and a real data analysis is discussed in order to illustrate the proposed procedure. Finally, we extend the developed methodology to other two-parameter distributions, including the Weibull, Burr type XII, and flexible Weibull distributions, and also to general progressive hybrid censoring.     

Curtailed Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions based on Type-II censored samples

This paper studies the problem of designing a curtailed Bayesian sampling plan (CBSP) with Type-II censored data. We first derive the Bayesian sampling plan (BSP) for exponential distributions based on Type-II censored samples in a general loss function. For the conjugate prior with quadratic loss function, an explicit expression for the Bayes decision function is derived. Using the property of monotonicity of the Bayes decision function, a new Bayesian sampling plan modified by the curtailment procedure, called a CBSP, is proposed. It is shown that the risk of CBSP is less than or equal to that of BSP. Comparisons among some existing BSPs and the proposed CBSP are given. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted, and numerical results indicate that the CBSP outperforms those early existing sampling plans if the time loss is considered in the loss function.     

Exact Bayesian modeling for bivariate Poisson data and extensions

Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics just to name a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution being a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an important role in modelling such data. In the present paper we present a Bayesian estimation approach for the parameters of the bivariate Poisson model and provide the posterior distributions in closed forms. It is shown that the joint posterior distributions are finite mixtures of conditionally independent gamma distributions for which their full form can be easily deduced by a recursively updating scheme. Thus, the need of applying computationally demanding MCMC schemes for Bayesian inference in such models will be removed, since direct sampling from the posterior will become available, even in cases where the posterior distribution of functions of the parameters is not available in closed form. In addition, we define a class of prior distributions that possess an interesting conjugacy property which extends the typical notion of conjugacy, in the sense that both prior and posteriors belong to the same family of finite mixture models but with different number of components. Extension to certain other models including multivariate models or models with other marginal distributions are discussed.     

Perfect samplers for mixtures of distributions

Summary. We consider the construction of perfect samplers for posterior distributions associated with mixtures of exponential families and conjugate priors, starting with a perfect slice sampler in the spirit of Mira and co-workers. The methods rely on a marginalization akin to Rao–Blackwellization and illustrate the duality principle of Diebolt and Robert. A first approximation embeds the finite support distribution on the latent variables within a continuous support distribution that is easier to simulate by slice sampling, but we later demonstrate that the approximation can be very poor. We conclude by showing that an alternative perfect sampler based on a single backward chain can be constructed. This alternative can handle much larger sample sizes than the slice sampler first proposed.     

Bayesian inference for the randomly censored Weibull distribution

In this paper, we consider the Bayesian inference of the unknown parameters of the randomly censored Weibull distribution. A joint conjugate prior on the model parameters does not exist; we assume that the parameters have independent gamma priors. Since closed-form expressions for the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained, we use Lindley's approximation, importance sampling and Gibbs sampling techniques to obtain the approximate Bayes estimates and the corresponding credible intervals. A simulation study is performed to observe the behaviour of the proposed estimators. A real data analysis is presented for illustrative purposes.     

A bayesian analysis of imperfect inspection models

An examination of sampling inspection models is provided for the case where inspection is not perfect and classification errors can be made. The conjugate family of distributions is obtained under t h e assumption that defective items are generated according to a Bernoulli process. To simplify analysis, the use of a single beta prior distribution is considered. Relevant predictive distributions are obtained.