调色板

<正> 你错过了什么 你年轻聪明,壮志凌云。你不想庸庸碌碌地了此一生,渴望名声、财富和权利。因此你常常在我耳边抱怨:那个著名的苹果为什么不是掉在你的头上?那只藏着“老子珠”的巨贝怎么就产在巴拉旺而不是在你常去游泳的海湾?拿破仑偏能碰上约瑟芬而英俊高大的你总没人垂青?     

调色板

<正> “消化不良” 有报道说,日本丰田公司到一汽考察后,曾说了两个没想到:没想到50年代一汽能造出这样的轿车,比丰田的水平还高;没想到几十年后,一汽轿车水平还是如此。 为什么1958年一汽造的小轿车与丰田差不了多少?为什么发展到今天,丰田早已跻身世界先进行列,而一汽却仍然停留国内市场,借助外国现成技术与同行拼个你死我活呢?不言自明,     

Eliciting and Combining Decision Criteria Using a Limited Palette of Utility Functions and Uncertainty Distributions: Illustrated by Application to Pest Risk Analysis

Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely rated decision‐making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented that aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules that express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In pest risk analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs that are consistent and easy to understand, criticize, compare, and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution that they used in the risk assessments.