Naive,resolute or sophisticated? A study of dynamic decision making

Dynamically inconsistent decision makers have to decide, implicitly or explicitly, what to do about their dynamic inconsistency. Economic theorists have identified three possible responses—to act naively (thus ignoring the dynamic inconsistency), to act resolutely (not letting their inconsistency affect their behaviour) or to act sophisticatedly (hence taking into account their inconsistency). We use data from a unique experiment (which observes both decisions and evaluations) in order to distinguish these three possibilities. We find that the majority of subjects are either naive or resolute (with slightly more being naive) but very few are sophisticated. These results have important implications for predicting the behaviour of people in dynamic situations.

Sustainable cities: Oxymoron,utopia, or inevitability?

Some people argue that, by definition and common sense, cities can not be sustainable. Others say that the idea is utopian, but that we can learn from literacy examples. Still others assert that cities will, must, and are becoming sustainable. This article explores each point of view, cites examples of steps toward sustainability currently being taken by various types of communities, notes common elements among them, and offers a resolution based on different definitions of sustainability.     

Experiencing Loneliness in Adolescence: A Matter of Individual Characteristics,Negative Peer Experiences,or Both?

The present study builds on the child‐by‐environment model and examines the joint contribution of intra‐individual characteristics (i.e., self‐esteem and shyness) and peer experiences (i.e., social acceptance, victimization, friendship quantity, and friendship quality) in the association with loneliness. A total of 884 adolescents (M_age = 15.80; 68 percent female) participated in this multi‐informant study. Results indicated that, in addition to self‐esteem and shyness, being poorly accepted by peers, being victimized, lacking friends, and experiencing poor‐quality friendships each contributed independently to the experience of loneliness. Further, friendship quantity and quality mediated the relation between the two intra‐individual characteristics and loneliness. Finally, a significant interaction was found between self‐esteem and social acceptance in predicting loneliness. The present study highlights the importance of investigating the joint effects of inter‐individual experiences and intra‐individual characteristics in examining loneliness. Suggestions to elaborate the child‐by‐environment model in loneliness research are discussed, and clinical implications are outlined.     

Maintenance Default or Maintenance At Fault?: A Rejoinder

Maintenance default is a large problem and a number of reasons have been suggested for the cause. However, there are also philosophical questions as to whether maintenance is a desirable concept in the first place.     

A disarmingly simple idea? Practical bottlenecks in the implementation of a universal basic income

This article considers the implementation of a universal basic income, a neglected area in basic income research. We identify and examine three important practical bottlenecks that may prevent a basic income scheme from attaining the universal reach desired and proclaimed by its advocates: i) maintaining a population‐wide cadaster of eligible claimants ensuring full takeup; ii) instituting robust modalities of payment that reach all intended beneficiaries; and iii) designing an effective oversight mechanism in a policy context that actively opposes client monitoring. We argue that the implementation of universal basic income faces unique challenges that its proponents must consider carefully.     

Free,free, set them free? Are programmes effective that allow job centres considerable freedom to choose the exact design?

Active labour market programmes are expected to be quite effective if job centres have a substantial degree of freedom to deliver tailor‐made individual services. For Germany, we studied the effectiveness of Schemes for Activation and Integration (SAI), which were introduced in 2009 to grant such freedoms to implement short training and private placement services. We estimated SAI participation effects on welfare recipients’ earnings and employment rate using propensity score matching and rich administrative data. We distinguished between participation in in‐firm training or training in other settings, and considered effect heterogeneity by gender, region and non‐employment duration. Participation substantially improved the participants’ earnings and employment rate, in‐firm training more so than training in other settings. Our employment effect estimates were not considerably larger than those previously found for comparable pre‐reform programmes. A lack of experience with SAI and a still inadequate client focus in the period studied might explain this.     

Impersonal probability as an ideal assessment based on accessible evidence: A viable construct?

When risk analysts and others refer to the true probability of an event, it is not easy to give it a meaning which is sound and useful as a communication device for regulatory, research planning, and related purposes. An interpretation is herein offered which, unlike Bayesian probability, is impersonal and does not depend on a particular assessor; unlike Carnap's logical probability, it does not depend on information actually to hand. It is a generalization of frequency and propensity interpretations of impersonal probability applicable to unique events: an ideal assessment based on currently accessible (not in general perfect) evidence. The argument is illustrated from decision-aiding experience which motivated the enquiry.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, Division of Social and Economic Sciences. The author thanks John Pratt, Marvin Cohen, Dennis Lindley, Jon Baron, Kathy Laskey, and Stephen Watson for their most helpful review. They do not necessarily share his views.     

China’s first priority in post-war state building: A wealthy state,or a strong army?

This analysis examined causal links in China’s defence–growth nexus in 1960–2016. The results show that better growth significantly reduces military-civilian ratio and propels military reforms. The unidirectional threshold causality from growth to defence shows that the military impact on a positive change in China’s growth is little in the long term. Conversely, the growth impact of a positive change in defence has accelerated after it reaches the threshold year in 1987. This finding explains why Chinese economy stagnated when defence was prioritised and why China has risen dramatically in the Far East after three decades of fast economic growth.     

Are moral norms distinct from social norms? A critical assessment of Jon Elster and Cristina Bicchieri

This article offers a critical assessment of Cristina Bicchieri and Jon Elster’s recent attempt to distinguish between social, moral, and quasi-moral norms. Although their typologies present interesting differences, they both distinguish types of norms on the basis of the way in which context, and especially other agents’ expectations and behavior, shapes one’s preference to comply with norms. We argue that both typologies should be abandoned because they fail to capture causally relevant features of norms. We nevertheless emphasize that both Bicchieri and Elster correctly draw attention to important and often neglected characteristics of the psychology of norm compliance.     

Local worker discretion within non-governmental organisations: social integration,social control,or innovation?

Abstract

This paper focuses on the dynamics of frontline organisational practice and examines how non-governmental organisations (NGOs) act as an intermediary between people and the state. It explores how workers in NGOs in the Pearl River Delta are responding to the needs of local migrant populations including rural-to-urban migrants and foreigners within mainland China, cross-border ‘new arrival’ Chinese and ethnic minorities in Hong Kong. We examine how government policy imperatives that relate to (im)migrants within the wider region are operationalised in strategic and direct practice, drawing on the theory of street-level bureaucracy to guide the analysis of primary data collected in two cities (Hong Kong and Guangzhou) during 2014. Key findings provide evidence of discretionary agency in both locations although the broader scope for an agency is evident in Hong Kong than Guangzhou. Implications for future practice are discussed within the context of increasingly restrictive political and social environment within the region.     

What affects happiness: Absolute income,relative income or expected income?

This study probes the reasons why increased income does not enhance happiness based on the effects of relative income and expected income. The study analysis is based on results from the Taiwan Social Change Survey from 1999 to 2002, using an ordered probit model. The findings demonstrate that the Taiwanese people are happier with an increase in absolute income. However, the marginal effect is reducing. In addition, relative income and expected income meet the expectation, indicating that people's happiness is not only related to absolute income, but also closely associated with the average income found in society and expected income.     

Stay or go? Turnover in CMO,EMO and regular charter schools

Background

We examine whether working conditions in different types of charter schools lead to different levels of teacher turnover. We consider two types of teacher turnover behaviors. One is teacher migration, which refers to the transfer of teachers from one school to another. The other one is teacher attrition, which describes the phenomenon of teachers leaving the profession entirely. We distinguish among charter schools managed by for-profit education management organizations (EMOs), those managed by non-profit charter management organizations (CMOs), and regular charter schools.

Linguistic services and parental involvement among Latinos: A help or hindrance to involvement?

Despite being one of the most consistent predictors of achievement among youth, parental involvement among Latinos continues to be low. In an attempt to increase involvement among Latinos, schools have implemented programs that provide linguistic services for parents who face language and cultural barriers. In order to understand the effectiveness of these programs, a subset of data are used from the National Survey of Latinos: Education to examine the relationship between four linguistic services and parental involvement. Results demonstrate linguistic services play only a marginal role in parental involvement among Latinos, and in some instances, even decrease involvement. Consequently, there is minimal support for programs that provide linguistic services to Latino parents in schools, suggesting policymakers should revisit the impact these services have on the Latino parent community.     

Are middle schoolers with diverse friends liked,disliked, or unnoticed - and by whom?

Having cross-ethnic friends in early adolescence is associated with more positive intergroup attitudes, but little is known about the social signaling function of the diversity of friends. The current study examined how the ethnic diversity of students’ friends in seventh grade is related to their social status (e.g., acceptance, rejection, and social impact) by eighth grade in multi-ethnic schools. It is hypothesized that friend diversity is (a) related to higher social status among ethnic out-group peers as it signals inclusiveness, but (b) related to lower in-group social status as diversity of friends may threaten the ethnic in-group. Utilizing a longitudinal sample of ethnically diverse youth (n = 4653) from 26 middle schools, the study capitalizes on outgoing friendship nominations in seventh grade and incoming acceptance and rejection nominations in eighth grade, while controlling for overall social status in grade seven. A novel index was used to calculate the diversity of youth's friend groups, and precise coding was done to retain biracial youth in the analytic sample. Results showed that having diverse friends was related to higher visibility (i.e., social impact) and greater acceptance from ethnic out-group members. In contrast, adolescents with diverse friend groups were less visible and less accepted by their in-group. Diversity of friends was not associated with out-group or in-group rejection. Findings highlight the importance of understanding how the composition of friend groups may signal intergroup attitudes and in-group solidarity in ways that have social status trade-offs among out- and in-group members.     

Diathesis stress or differential susceptibility? testing longitudinal associations between parenting,temperament, and children's problem behavior

In this study we investigated longitudinal associations among parenting, children's temperamental negative affectivity, and internalizing and externalizing behavior. Second, we tested whether findings confirmed the diathesis‐stress model or differential susceptibility theory when conducting stringent interaction tests. The sample included 129 children and their families. Parenting quality (age 5) was measured by parent–child interaction observations. Parents evaluated child negative affectivity (age 7) and teachers reported on problem behavior (age 12). Multiple regression analyses revealed an interaction effect of negative affectivity and parenting on externalizing behavior. Visual inspection suggested ‘for better and for worse’ effects of parenting for children with negative affectivity. However, more stringent tests failed to show convincing evidence for differential susceptibility theory. For internalizing behavior, negative affectivity may render children vulnerable regardless of parenting. Our results point at the importance of further testing interaction effects to distinguish between differential susceptibility theory and the diathesis‐stress model.