Beyond Tariffs: The Role of Non‐Tariff Barriers in Dairy Trade in the East African Community Free Trade Area

This study used a spatial equilibrium modelling approach to quantify the relative welfare impacts of eliminating tariffs and non‐tariff barriers on trade in dairy products among East African Community (EAC) member countries. The results indicated that removing tariffs only would not produce any significant welfare improvements unless it was accompanied by trade‐enhancing measures such as reductions in non‐tariff barriers and transport costs. In the current modelling framework, net welfare gains were higher in relatively lower‐income countries like Burundi than in higher‐income countries like Kenya. This indicates that reductions in trade costs may reduce regional imbalances in the EAC.     

U.S. firms and black labor in South Africa: Creating a structure for change

Some have argued that U.S. firms should disinvest from South Africa as a means of putting pressure on the South African government to end apartheid. This argument, however, may ignore a dynamic of change in South Africa in which U.S. firms have played and are playing a large role: South African industrial relations have undergone significant evolution since 1979, the year in which major changes were introduced in that country’s labor legislation. Partly a result of these changes, black trade union membership has increased by 800 percent since 1979. By virtue of its unique exposure to varied constituencies, the multinational subsidiary in both home and host countries can be viewed as an agent of sociopolitical change in South Africa. The author wishes to thank Professors Herbert R. Northrup and Richard L. Rowan for helpful discussion.     

Sustainability and depth of outreach: Evidence from microfinance institutions in sub‐Saharan Africa

The feasibility of microfinance institutions (MFIs) to expand outreach to the poorest while remaining financially sustainable has long been debated. Using data from 206 MFIs in 33 African countries, we adopt the three‐stage least square technique to assess whether a trade‐off exists between sustainability and outreach depth. Our results confirm the existence of a trade‐off. The evidence also supports ongoing subsidies for MFIs with the aim of encouraging outreach. In addition, we examine whether there is an inflection point beyond which higher interest rates reduce profitability for MFIs. We find no evidence of a threshold beyond which profitability is reduced.     

The Cartagena Protocol: Implications for Regional Trade and Technology Development in Africa

The majority of African countries have ratified or acceded to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and many have received support through the Global Environment Facility and the UN Environment Programme for development of their National Biosafety Frameworks. This article examines the extent to which these frameworks are aligned with the goals of the Regional Economic and Regional Research Communities of which they are members. Many national approaches lack alignment with regional trade, economic, science and technology policies. The strict application of the precautionary principle and the imposition of costly administrative hurdles are likely to hinder intra‐regional trade and technology development.     

Has the Internet Increased Trade? Developed and Developing Country Evidence

Developing countries export more to developed, but not other developing countries, when Internet penetration is higher. Although this could be because Internet penetration stimulates exports, it could also be because trade openness encourages Internet use. To test the direction of causation, we allow Internet use to be determined endogenously using countries' regulation of data services as an instrument. The results suggest that access to the Internet does improve export performance in developing countries, although not in developed countries. In other words, improving Internet access in a developing country will stimulate exports from that country to rich countries. (JEL F15 )     

Deliberate or Emancipate? Civil Society Participation in Trade Policy: The Case of the CARIFORUM–EU EPA

At both the multilateral and regional levels, there have been efforts to address the democratic deficit in trade negotiations. One such example is the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union and African, Caribbean and Pacific group of countries where civil society participation was enshrined in the Cotonou Agreement. Yet, the CARIFORUM–EU EPA attracted much criticism from civil society. The paper argues that civil society failed to affect the outcome of the EPA because they participated in the process within a deliberative democratic framework which did not allow for emancipation or a challenge to global economic power and structural considerations in the negotiations; neither did it achieve citizen empowerment and ownership. We advocate the practice of participatory democracy in trade policy decision making—an ideal space for citizen participation—the former holding greater promise for influencing the trade policy agenda.     

The determinants of heroin flows in Europe: A latent space approach

This study utilises recent advances in statistical models for social networks to identify the factors shaping heroin trafficking in relation to European countries. First, it estimates the size of the heroin flows among a network of 61 countries, before subsequently using a latent space approach to model the presence of trafficking and the amount of heroin traded between any two given countries. Many networks, such as trade networks, are intrinsically weighted, and ignoring edge weights results in a loss of relevant information. Traditionally, the gravity model has been used to predict legal trade flows, assuming conditional independence among observations. More recently, latent space position models for social networks have been used to analyze legal trade among countries, and, mutatis mutandis, can be applied to the context of illegal trade to count both edge weights and conditional dependence among observations. These models allow for a better understanding of the generative processes and potential evolution of heroin trafficking routes. This study shows that geographical and social proximity provide fertile ground for the formation of heroin flows. Opportunities are also a driver of drug flows towards countries where regulation of corruption is weak.     

Emigration and development in Southern Africa,with special reference to Lesotho

"The introduction defines development and describes the scope of the paper. Section two briefly describes the historical evolution of [labor] migration in southern Africa, the ambiguities of data, and recent quantitative trends. Section three discusses alternative theoretical perspectives. Section four examines the case of Lesotho as an extreme example of a sending country and provides occasional allusions to other southern African sending countries. Section five concludes that the most important effect of [labor] migration on development in southern Africa has been to trade short run income benefits for long run development difficulties."     

HIV/AIDS and other household shocks as catalysts of local commercialization of non‐timber forest products in Southern Africa

Local trade in non‐timber forest products (NTFPs) is increasing globally, yet the causes have been little studied. We examine household shock as a driver of NTFP trade in five southern African countries, with an emphasis on HIV/AIDS‐related illness and death. Over the past two years, 95% of trader households experienced at least one shock, with family illness and death recorded for 68% and 42% of households, respectively. Almost 40% had entered the trade because of HIV/AIDS‐related shocks. Additional shocks included natural disasters, crop pests or failure and livestock loss. The sale of NTFPs was the third most common coping strategy, after kinship and agricultural adjustments. Coping strategies differed between sites and type of shock.     

The Affordability of Social Protection in the Light of International Spending Commitments

In recent years a number of international sector‐specific agreements have been developed by the international community and ratified by developing countries – some with specific spending targets. This article offers an empirical analysis of the individual and aggregate affordability of six sectoral targets and, based on the actual or estimated cost of each of the targets, compares target spending levels with actual government expenditure in five African countries. Most targets are not met and, while individually ‘affordable’, the estimated cost of meeting the six targets simultaneously indicates that they are not jointly affordable, with an estimated cost of more than 100% of total government expenditure in four of the five countries. Meeting any of the sectoral targets in full would require either sectoral trade‐offs, or significant increases in donor or government expenditure.     

A panel data analysis of the impact of trade on human development

Arguments for a positive link between trade and per-capita income are often met with the counterargument that “there is more to life than income”—the implication being that trade improves income, but degrades “quality of life.” In this paper, we attempt to address this counterargument by examining the impact of trade on countries’ social developments as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI)—a composite measure of education, literacy, and income published by the United Nations Development Programme. Utilizing a generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure in a panel data framework, we find that increases in trade are positively associated with future increases in social welfare.     

The Economic Partnership Agreements: Rationale,Misperceptions and Non‐trade Aspects

The European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries entered a new era in 2008. The Cotonou trade regime and the WTO waiver legitimising it have expired, and the long anticipated, and much debated, move to Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) has begun. This article explains the background and analyses the ‘alternatives’ to EPAs, in order to tackle common misperceptions. Moving on from what has been the focus of debates, namely, the reciprocal liberalisation required under WTO rules, it sheds some light on the non‐goods trade aspects of EPAs which, while integral to economic policy, are inherently hard to quantify and often skimmed over in existing studies or addressed in ideological terms.     

Managing Migration: The Role of Economic Instruments

This paper reviews economic policies and instruments available to the developed countries to reduce unwanted migration from developing countries, not all of which is irregular migration. Countries generally welcome legal immigrants and visitors, try to make it unnecessary for people to become refugees and asylum seekers, and try to discourage, detect, and remove irregular foreigners. There are three major themes: 1. There are as many reasons for migration as there are migrants, and the distinction between migrants motivated by economic and non–economic considerations is often blurred. Perhaps the best analogy is to a river – what begins as one channel that can be managed with a dam can become a series of rivulets forming a delta, making migration far more difficult to manage. 2. The keys to reducing unwanted migration lie mostly in emigration countries, but trade and investment fostered by immigration countries can accelerate economic and job growth in both emigration and immigration countries, and make trading in goods a substitute for economically motivated migration. Trade and economic integration had the effect of slowing emigration from Europe to the Americas, between southern Europe and northern Europe, and in Asian Tiger countries such as South Korea and Malaysia. However, the process of moving toward freer trade and economic integration can also increase migration in the short term, producing a migration hump, and requiring cooperation between emigration and immigration destinations so that the threat of more migration does not slow economic integration and growth. 3. Aid, intervention, and remittances can help reduce unwanted migration, but experience shows that there are no assurances that such aid, intervention, and remittances would, in fact, lead migrants to stay at home. The better use of remittances to promote development, which at US$65 billion in 1999 exceeded the US$56 billion in official development assistance (ODA), is a promising area for cooperation between migrants and their areas of origin, as well as emigration and immigration countries. There are two ways that differences between countries can be narrowed: migration alone in a world without free trade, or migration and trade in an open economy. Migration will eventually diminish in both cases, but there is an important difference between reducing migration pressures in a closed or open world economy. In a closed economy, economic differences can narrow as wages fall in the immigration country, a sure recipe for an anti–immigrant backlash. By contrast, in an open economy, economic differences can be narrowed as wages rise faster in the emigration country. Areas for additional research and exploration of policy options include: (1) how to phase in freer trade, investment, and economic integration to minimize unwanted migration; (2) strategies to increase the job–creating impacts of remittances, perhaps by using aid to match remittances that are invested in job–creating ways.     

纪念苏丹商人穆罕默德·哈吉在华首设商务处

中国与阿拉伯非洲的历史交往源远流长,特别是与苏丹的联系,可以追溯到西汉时期,而且从那时起双方之间的往来一直延续不断。本文在历史回顾的基础上,通过实地调查和口传资料,着重考察了19世纪末苏丹商人穆罕默德·哈吉在广州首设商务办事处并开展苏(丹)中(国)贸易、加强双方社会联系的历史活动,揭示了苏中悠久关系史上鲜为人知的一页。     

New governance of labour rights: the perspective of Cambodian garment workers’ struggles

Globalization has implied the transfer of industrial work to countries of the Global South, where labour rights are seldom effectively protected by legal frameworks. New forms of governance that go beyond state-centred legal regulation are presented as an alternative to fill in ‘governance gaps’. This paper analyses ‘new governance’ from the perspective of Cambodian garment workers and labour movements’ struggles. Drawing on the literature on governance and private regulation and research data from Cambodia, it argues that a technocratic approach makes governance initiatives ignore the economic conflict between labour and capital but also the possible political conflict between labour and government. By ignoring trade union rights, power-blind initiatives might end up weakening both the labour movement and democratic accountability, instead of complementing state’s regulatory roles. This might serve the overlapping interests of the powerful actors both in Cambodia and internationally.     

Would a Commodity‐based Trade Approach Improve Market Access for Africa? A Case Study of the Potential of Beef Exports from Communal Areas of Namibia

Market access for African livestock products has long been stymied by a variety of animal diseases endemic in the region. The concept of commodity‐based trade (CBT) has been advanced to make trade dependent on process‐related attributes of production that ensure freedom from disease rather than the geographical origin of the animals themselves. This article looks at the potential of CBT in improving market access for beef from communal areas of Namibia, which have historically been excluded from high‐value export markets. Model results suggest only modest gains from CBT, given the substantial costs of compliance with SPS and quality standards required for high‐value markets. Regional markets may still offer the best option for beef exports from these areas.     

Trade openness and income inequality: New empirical evidence

We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970–2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade openness on income inequality differs across countries. Trade openness tends to disproportionately benefit the relative income shares of the very poor, but not necessarily all poor, in emerging and developing economies. In most advanced economies, trade openness increased income inequality, an effect that is driven by outliers. Our results suggest a strong effect of trade openness on inequality in China and transition countries.     

Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries

The growth of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the world has been significant in recent years. Between 1990 and 2000 worldwide FDI inflows increased more than five times, and since 2000 they have declined. During the period of FDI expansion, growth was especially strong from 1997 onward. However, most of the FDI transactions were between the developed countries. The distribution of FDI is unequal and less-developing countries face difficulties in attracting FDI. Despite the fact that FDI is increasingly important to developing countries, over the past few years the share of the developing countries in worldwide FDI inflows has been declining. The paper analyses geographical and sector distribution of FDI in the Southeast European countries (SEEC) and compares its amount with that in Central East European countries. According to economic theory, FDI towards developing countries flows for labor-intensive and low-technology production, while towards developed states, it flows for high-technology production. Identification of determining factors of FDI is a complex problem which depends on several characteristics specific for each country, sectors, and companies. All those factors could be grouped in three broad categories: economic policy of host country, economic performance, and attractiveness of national economy. On the desegregated level, FDI depends on size and growth potential of a national economy, natural resources endowments and quality of workforce, openness to international trade and access to international markets, and quality of physical, financial, and technological infrastructure. An important question is how SEEC can attract more foreign investment. To find the answer, this paper uses data on FDI inflows to SEEC to determine the main host country determinants of FDI and provides regression-based estimation of determinants of FDI. Using a sample of SEEC and panel data techniques, the determinants of FDI in this part of Europe are investigated. The paper researches the relationship between FDI, GDP, GDP per capita, number of inhabitants, trade openness, inflation, external debt, and information and communication technology sectors. For SEEC, FDI inflows are largely dependent on the completion of the privatization process and in this paper we include the level of private sector and privatization as explanatory variables. Our findings suggest that certain variables such as privatization and trade regime, as well as the density of infrastructure, appear to be robust under different specifications. A positive significance of the agglomeration factor is also observed, confirming the relevant theoretical propositions. However, certain differential variables, such as the privatization, could not be fully captured due to the statistical homogeneity of the sample.     

税收、租金与治理:理论与检验

发展中国家和转型国家普遍面临着如何提高治理水平的难题。本文从财政社会学这一独特视角出发,研究了国家的财政收入汲取方式对治理水平的影响。作者首先梳理了财政社会学中存在的一个隐含的理论假设:只有税收国家才能实现好的国家治理。然后,运用非洲国家的面板数据,对这一假设进行了检验。研究发现,财政社会学的这一理论假设是成立的。一个国家税收国家的特征越强,其治理质量就越高;反之,税收国家的特征越弱,或者租金国家的特征越强,其治理质量就越低。这一发现对发展中国家包括中国的国家建设有着重要启示。     

Ariadne’s thread: Cape Verdean women in transnational webs

This article is about Cape Verdean women who make a living through engaging in regular transnational petty trade. They buy consumer goods in West African countries, in Portugal and elsewhere in Europe, in Brazil and in the USA, to sell back in Cape Verde, either in open‐air markets or in their own shops. Women perform most of this kind of trade and they operate on the border between the formal and informal economies. Drawing on interview material, the article shows how their self‐presentation as autonomous self‐reliant economic agents relates to gender and family roles and to a strategic balance between personal freedom and embeddedness in multi‐territorialized networks.