企业生命周期的系统动力学建模与仿真

从系统动力学角度研究企业生命周期变化中不同因素的影响.分析企业成长过程和主要影响之后,建立能够反映企业生命周期变化的因果关系图和动力学模型.用C#语言实现了系统动力学模型,验证了模型的有效性,讨论了模型的应用.仿真结果表明本文方法能够有效模拟企业生命周期的演化过程,并且能够为管理者进行企业组织管理与活力控制提供决策支持.     

东方系统方法论指导项目评价实践：科学性与艺术性的结合

针对西方评价方法论缺少系统性与灵活性的特点,提出东方系统方法论指导项目评价活动的理念。通过分析东方系统方法论对于项目评价实践的适应性,构建了项目评价决策概念模型和项目评价全过程模型,并以“知物理、明事理、通人理”为指导思想对项目评价全过程进行了系统分析。     

Multiobjective Prioritization Methodology and Decision Support System for Evaluating Inventory Enhancement Strategies for Disrupted Interdependent Sectors

Disruptions in the production of commodities and services resulting from disasters influence the vital functions of infrastructure and economic sectors within a region. The interdependencies inherent among these sectors trigger the faster propagation of disaster consequences that are often associated with a wider range of inoperability and amplified losses. This article evaluates the impact of inventory‐enhanced policies for disrupted interdependent sectors to improve the disaster preparedness capability of dynamic inoperability input‐output models (DIIM). In this article, we develop the dynamic cross‐prioritization plot (DCPP)—a prioritization methodology capable of identifying and dynamically updating the critical sectors based on preference assignments to different objectives. The DCPP integrates the risk assessment metrics (e.g., economic loss and inoperability), which are independently analyzed in the DIIM. We develop a computer‐based DCPP tool to determine the priority for inventory enhancement with user preference and resource availability as new dimensions. A baseline inventory case for the state of Virginia revealed a high concentration of (i) manufacturing sectors under the inoperability objective and (ii) service sectors under the economic loss objective. Simulation of enhanced inventory policies for selected critical manufacturing sectors has reduced the recovery period by approximately four days and the expected total economic loss by $33 million. Although the article focuses on enhancing inventory levels in manufacturing sectors, complementary analysis is recommended to manage the resilience of the service sectors. The flexibility of the proposed DCPP as a decision support tool can also be extended to accommodate analysis in other regions and disaster scenarios.     

基于过程的服务型企业电子商务就绪评价的实证研究

根据企业电子商务绩效动态评价模型,针对服务型企业电子商务流程特征,构建由战略规划、资源、能力和绩效四个维度构成的服务型企业电子商务就绪评价指标体系。该指标体系通过四个维度之间的因果递进作用关系,实现对价值产生的就绪因素、中间过程因素和关联作用关系的综合评价,突破前人孤立、静态的结构化视角,形成一种新的具有过程评估特点的就绪评价方法。采用实证研究方法,通过124家服务型企业的数据,从RBV理论﹑Nolan阶段性理论和资源投入波动性分析三个方面综合论证了该指标体系的合理性,以及其所具有的动态跟踪﹑阶段评估和诊断预测功能。     

Evaluating and Refining Expert Critiquing Systems: A Methodology*

Expert critiquing systems are a rapidly growing class of intelligent decision support systems that apply artificial intelligence techniques to criticize a user's proposed solution to a problem. Critic programs now exist in the medical, engineering, programming, knowledge acquisition, word processing, and other domains. Critic refinement is a nontrivial activity that, even when done well, consumes a sizable fraction of the complete effort to build and deploy a critiquing system. To ease that effort, it is important to adopt a rigorous approach that allows one to reproducibly measure the degree of success of the current critic version and to predict which refinements will improve the critic further. The current article presents one such approach with actual case studies that illustrate its usage and elaborate selected aspects of the refinement process.     

Stock Evaluation Using a Preference Disaggregation Methodology

This paper presents a real application of a multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) approach to portfolio selection based on preference disaggregation, using ordinal regression and linear programming (UTADIS method; UTilités Additives DIScriminantes). The additive utility functions that are derived through this approach have the extrapolation ability that any new alternative (share) can be easily evaluated and classified into one of several user-predefined groups. The procedure is illustrated with a case study of 98 stocks from the Athens stock exchange, using 15 criteria. The results are encouraging, indicating that the proposed methodology could be used as a tool for the analysis of the portfolio managers' preferences and choices. Furthermore, the comparison with multiple discriminant analysis (either using a stepwise procedure or not) illustrates the superiority of the proposed methodology over a well-known multivariate statistical technique that has been extensively used to study financial decision-making problems.     

基于“心理场”的消费者气质研究——全息系统方法论在消费者行为研究中的应用

从先天气质层面去解读消费者在后天不同环境的行为表达规律,是未来消费者行为研究深化的一个重要命题.目前的消费者气质研究在研究前提、方法和结论方面均存在较大的缺陷.通过试运用中国古代最有价值的思想智慧--"天人合一"的全息系统方法论,提出一个基于"心理场"的消费者气质研究的理论范式,以探讨消费者先天气质在后天消费行为表象的规律.尔后,引入场论的概念去研究消费者气质及其表象--消费活动的波粒二象性,抓住了气质这一消费者身心原型,从场的功能态对消费者的先天气质进行分型,破解气质场这一抽象信息在消费心理活动不同层面的时空表达规律,就可以把握同一消费者千变万化的需求,理解不同消费者之间心理行为差异的内在根据.     

Bayesian Methodology for Model Uncertainty Using Model Performance Data

A simple and useful characterization of many predictive models is in terms of model structure and model parameters. Accordingly, uncertainties in model predictions arise from uncertainties in the values assumed by the model parameters (parameter uncertainty) and the uncertainties and errors associated with the structure of the model (model uncertainty). When assessing uncertainty one is interested in identifying, at some level of confidence, the range of possible and then probable values of the unknown of interest. All sources of uncertainty and variability need to be considered. Although parameter uncertainty assessment has been extensively discussed in the literature, model uncertainty is a relatively new topic of discussion by the scientific community, despite being often the major contributor to the overall uncertainty. This article describes a Bayesian methodology for the assessment of model uncertainties, where models are treated as sources of information on the unknown of interest. The general framework is then specialized for the case where models provide point estimates about a single‐valued unknown, and where information about models are available in form of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous performance data (pairs of experimental observations and model predictions). Several example applications for physical models used in fire risk analysis are also provided.     

Design and Assessment Methodology for System Resilience Metrics

By providing objective measures, resilience metrics (RMs) help planners, designers, and decisionmakers to have a grasp of the resilience status of a system. Conceptual frameworks establish a sound basis for RM development. However, a significant challenge that has yet to be addressed is the assessment of the validity of RMs, whether they reflect all abilities of a resilient system, and whether or not they overrate/underrate these abilities. This article covers this gap by introducing a methodology that can show the validity of an RM against its conceptual framework. This methodology combines experimental design methods and statistical analysis techniques that provide an insight into the RM's quality. We also propose a new metric that can be used for general systems. The analysis of the proposed metric using the presented methodology shows that this metric is a better indicator of the system's abilities compared to the existing metrics.     

Using Performance Pay in Human Service Settings

Arco (1993) argued for increased research and use of performance pay in hum& sehce organizations. To facilitate these activities he prepared a guide as lo the conditions under which such research and application might best take place. His suggestions, though, omitted reference to a key characteristic (client variability at program entry) of human service organizations. The necessity of addressing this matter, in both research and practice, is emphasized.     

基于思维法则学的群决策方法及其应用

针对群决策中如何科学地收集、集成、分析决策者真实看法的问题,基于西方的思维法则学理论,提出了指示优先级的程式化方法。该方法蕴涵了东方管理中的均衡思想,广泛用于爱尔兰政府及企业的各种项目中。作为该方法的原创者和翻译者合作团队,我们在5年多的合作研究中,探索了有关的理论发展及其中文表述。本文介绍指示优先级的程式化方法的适用情景和应用步骤,与其他方法论进行了比较,给出了应用案例。在应用案例中,对陕西省的5个市县财政局进行了访谈和问卷调查,对西安市财政局的调查数据进行了识别、集成和分析,得到了决策方案及优先级次序。应用结果表明:指示优先级的程式化方法适用于中国情境下的多属性/多准则群决策,能够提供决策依据。     

基于模块化思想的EIRM体系研究

从复杂自适应系统(CAS)角度,引入模块化思想于企业集成风险管理(EIRM)体系之中,基于解释结构模型(ISM)对EIRM系统进行了结构分解;在此基础上,利用Multi-Agent建模技术提出了EIRM的模块化体系,并基于管理熵优化了该体系中各Agent间的耦合关系,强调战略、组织、方法、信息、文化和过程各Agent间的有机融合.     

TEI@I方法论及其在外汇汇率预测中的应用

基于TE I@I方法论的理论框架,构建了一个基于TE I@I方法论的外汇汇率预测模型。在此模型中,传统的经济计量模型用于处理外汇汇率的主要趋势,人工神经网络技术用于分析外汇汇率的非线性,而文本挖掘和专家系统用于处理外汇市场中的突现性和不稳定性。最后,基于集成的思想,利用支持向量回归技术对上述3个部分进行非线性集成,从而获得一个更为精确的预测结果。通过实证方法验证了基于TE I@I方法论的外汇汇率预测模型的有效性。     

基于系统动力学的低成本航空运营系统模型研究

本文采用系统动力学方法对低成本航空运输业在中国市场的运营情况进行预测模拟,肯定了低成本航空运输业对经济发展的促进作用,同时希望政府进一步放松管制,鼓励民间资本辅助完善航空基础设施的建设以及加强航空市场的完善,同时加大投资力度,促进整个低成本航空运营系统的发展.模型采用vensim软件建模,并对模型进行了验证,具有一定的可靠性.     

实物期权方法在投资项目评估中的运用

介绍了投资评估的实物期权方法,着重分析运用该方法的一般程序以及应该注意的问题,给出了评估方法选择以及期权类型选择的评判标准,分析了期权各要素确定时应注意的问题。重点在于实物期权的实际运用,具有一定的现实意义。     

VaR方法及其在股市风险分析中的应用初探

本文讨论了度量投资风险的VaR方法的概念和计算方法,在股票价格随机游动的假设下计算了深圳股市在不同置信水平下的风险值,并与实际投资收益做了对比。在算例分析的基础上,对VaR方法在我国股票投资中的应用进行了初步探讨。     

股票组织的套期保值策略研究

本文从两个角度研究了股票组合的套期保值问题,提出了两种股票组合的套期保值方案,并对这两种方案进行了分析和比较研究。     

建立体现科学发展观的干部实绩考评体系

加强对县(市、区)党政领导班子及领导干部工作实绩的考核,是深化干部人事制度改革的重点难点之一,是引导领导班子和领导干部牢固树立科学发展观和正确政绩观、提高执政能力的关键性措施。宜昌市作为湖北省县(市、区)党政领导班子及党政正职实绩考核评价工作试点单位,深入总结全市多年来开展干部实绩考核的经验,结合正在推行的县(市、区)年度工作目标管理责任制,建立了以“1+3”模式为核心的县(市、区)党政领导班子及党政正职实绩考核评价体系,出台了《实绩考核评价试行办法》,从2005年开始在全市全面推行,为建立体现科学发展观和正确政绩观…     

Managing Quality in the E‐Service System: Development and Application of a Process Model

In this paper, we develop a process model for assessing and managing e‐service quality based on the underlying components of the e‐service system and, in turn, address the growing need to look in more detail at the system component level for sources of poor quality. The proposed process model is comprised of a set of entities representing the e‐service system, a network defining the linking between all pairs of entities via transactions and product flows, and a set of outcomes of the processes in terms of quality dimensions. The process model is developed using Unified Modeling Language (UML), a pictorial language for specifying service designs that has achieved widespread acceptance among e‐service designers. Examples of applications of the process model are presented to illustrate how the model can be use to identify operational levers for managing and improving e‐service quality.     

Application Development Using Fault Data

We develop a general model for software development process and propose a policy to manage system coordination using system fault reports (e.g., interface inconsistencies, parameter mismatches, etc.). These reports are used to determine the timing of coordination activities that remove faults. We show that under an optimal policy, coordination should be performed only if a “threshold” fault count has been exceeded. We apply the policy to software development processes and compare the management of those projects under different development conditions. A series of numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate how the fault threshold policy needs to be adjusted to changes in system complexity, team skill, development environment, and project schedule. Moreover, we compare the optimal fault threshold policy to an optimal release‐based policy. The release‐based policy does not take into account fault data and is easier to administer. The comparisons help to define the range of project parameters for which observing fault data can provide significant benefits for managing a software project.