Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems

We consider multi-criteria group decision-making problems, where the decision makers (DMs) want to identify their most preferred alternative(s) based on uncertain or inaccurate criteria measurements. In many real-life problems the uncertainties may be dependent. In this paper, we focus on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems where the criteria and their uncertainties are computed using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. The simulation model determines for the criteria a joint probability distribution, which quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We present and compare two methods for treating the uncertainty and dependency information within the SMAA-2 multi-criteria decision aid method. The first method applies directly the discrete sample generated by the simulation model. The second method is based on using a multivariate Gaussian distribution. We demonstrate the methods using a decision support model for a retailer operating in the deregulated European electricity market.     

A Simulation of Partial Information Use in Decision Making: Implications for DSS Design

Information matrices are often the output produced by a decision support system. These matrices are a common method for expressing a decision situation under different decision-making scenarios. The decisions involved in designing a decision support system to generate the information matrix are important and involve several cost and benefit components. A designer needs guidance in making effective design decisions in this context. Such guidance can be provided by considering the relationships among specific design decisions, costs, and benefits. The general objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive framework for this purpose. This study is the first to develop and present a comprehensive cost-benefit framework for evaluating design decisions for a variety of scenarios. The specific objective of this research is to provide guidance regarding the number of available information dimensions to incorporate in a computer-based decision aid. Simulation experiments are conducted with a completely specified model based on the cost-benefit framework (including needed assumptions) to evaluate how many information dimensions to include for a specific information matrix size to achieve a balance between information use costs and decision quality. Based upon extensive simulation analyses for a hypothetical decision maker, the practical guideline found for designers is to include only the top half of the relevant information dimensions in any specific decision support system. Over a large number of repeating choice decisions, the savings in cognitive effort and information gathering costs clearly offset relatively minor losses in decision quality.     

An environmental decision model for dynamic planning

In the complex, rapidly changing environment facing the modern business enterprise, it has become increasingly difficult to make meaningful predictions concerning future activities. As such, it is especially important for the decision maker to seek means of gathering and evaluating information. Due to the immense amounts of subjective data, the need arises for the development of valid techniques for identifying and quantifying relevant information.Writers in the area of organization theory have emphasized the importance of the relationship between and organization and processes occurring within its environment to the extent that these environmental processes and their impact are considered vital to the ultimate survival of the firm. The Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) is an analytical process upon which simulation models can be developed to examine the effect of more sophisticated information processing. The GERT technique serves as an input to decision making and for purposes of analysis will be studied under conditions of the disturbed reactive environment.The essential method upon which this study is based is the development of a model designed to capture the characteristics of the environment. The model in turn is tested under various conditions and changing sets of information to arrive at some idea of the possible implications for decision making under a situation affected by more and different information usage.     

Using Electronic Medical Records in Admission Decisions: A Cost Effectiveness Analysis

In recent years, the healthcare sector has invested heavily in medical information systems to improve decision making while reducing medical costs and integrating medical data from multiple sources. However, the overall contribution of this technology to the medical field remains controversial, especially in high‐stress environments such as the emergency department. This article evaluates the differential effects of accessing an electronic medical record (EMR) system on the decision to admit, based on diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), which is one of the main reasons people go to the emergency department. The admission decision with or without accessing the EMR system is modeled as a decision tree and a Markovian process. A cost‐effectiveness analysis compares the added value of information (retrieved from the EMR system) against the cost of providing this information. This model is then tested on a simulation of patients presenting symptoms of AMI. The results show that use of the EMR led to greater cost‐effectiveness in cases of suspected AMI. The findings of this study may assist physicians by demonstrating a probable contribution of EMR to improved medical outcomes and may inform policy makers in the healthcare sector regarding the advisability of investing in such systems in an emergency department.     

集成博弈和多智能体的人群工作互动行为研究

基于进化博弈视角,对人群工作互动行为进行多智能体模拟研究.建立了收益和惩罚共享的群体工作收益博弈模型,考虑工作个体的个性决策特征,设计基于历史信息和个体决策特性的混合学习规则,并用多智能体方法对群体工作场景进行描述.在Repast类库基础上,用Ja-va实现该多智能体模拟系统.模拟结果表明:1)群体规模对宏观工作趋势影...     

Optimizing real-time vehicle sequencing of a paint shop conveyor system

A discrete event simulation model and a decision optimizer that were developed for a General Motors paint shop conveyor system are presented. The simulation model interacts with the decision optimizer at four critical points in the system, trying to regroup batches of different colored vehicles. The decision optimizer employs dynamic programming and integer programming to optimize vehicle routing policies. Simulation results of the current decision making policies are compared with those of the proposed optimized policies showing that the number of paint head changes can be significantly reduced resulting in substantial savings on paint head cleaners and paint.     

A decision support methodology for strategic planning in maritime transportation

This paper presents a decision support methodology for strategic planning in tramp and industrial shipping. The proposed methodology combines simulation and optimization, where a Monte Carlo simulation framework is built around an optimization-based decision support system for short-term routing and scheduling. The simulation proceeds by considering a series of short-term routing and scheduling problems using a rolling horizon principle where information is revealed as time goes by. The approach is flexible in the sense that it can easily be configured to provide decision support for a wide range of strategic planning problems, such as fleet size and mix problems, analysis of long-term contracts and contract terms. The methodology is tested on a real case for a major Norwegian shipping company. The methodology provided valuable decision support on important strategic planning problems for the shipping company.     

Distributed manufacturing support systems: the integration of distributed group support systems with manufacturing support systems

Current Manufacturing Support Systems (MSS), such as Computer-aided Manufacturing (CAM) Systems, Computer-aided Design (CAD) Systems, Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) Systems, Material Resource Planning (MRP) Systems, and Manufacturing Accounting Control (MAC) Systems, are mostly independent systems that are operated in limited decision spaces, provide mainly formal and quantitative information, and thus pursue a goal of local optimization. To assist modern manufacturing in meeting the needs for integration, communication, collaboration, and decision making, we introduce the concept of integrating MSS with Distributed Group Support System (DGSS) into a Distributed Manufacturing Support System (DMSS). A rigorous system design approach is taken to model the manufacturing information requirements from a global perspective and pattern decision making processes within the structural (organizational design) and infrastructural (information system design) elements of manufacturing. The result is a conceptual DMSS design that provides an intelligent interface, accommodates incremental manufacturing integration, offers controllable message exchange facilities, and allows configurable communication networks.     

Path to “Stardom” in Globally Distributed Hybrid Teams: An Examination of a Knowledge‐Centered Perspective using Social Network Analysis

Although distributed teams have been researched extensively in information systems and decision science disciplines, a review of the literature suggests that the dominant focus has been on understanding the factors affecting performance at the team level. There has however been an increasing recognition that specific individuals within such teams are often critical to the team's performance. Consequently, existing knowledge about such teams may be enhanced by examining the factors that affect the performance of individual team members. This study attempts to address this need by identifying individuals who emerge as “stars” in globally distributed teams involved in knowledge work such as information systems development (ISD). Specifically, the study takes a knowledge‐centered view in explaining which factors lead to “stardom” in such teams. Further, it adopts a social network approach consistent with the core principles of structural/relational analysis in developing and empirically validating the research model. Data from U.S.–Scandinavia self‐managed “hybrid” teams engaged in systems development were used to deductively test the proposed model. The overall study has several implications for group decision making: (i) the study focuses on stars within distributed teams, who play an important role in shaping group decision making, and emerge as a result of a negotiated/consensual decision making within egalitarian teams; (ii) an examination of emergent stars from the team members’ point of view reflects the collective acceptance and support dimension decision‐making contexts identified in prior literature; (iii) finally, the study suggests that the social network analysis technique using relational data can be a tool for a democratic decision‐making technique within groups.     

基于多主体仿真的大群体应急决策风险致因分析

大群体应急决策风险来源众多，且对决策的影响不容忽视。本文从个体因素和群体因素两方面对大群体应急决策风险进行系统识别，并将各风险因素与两类群体效应（认知冲突和关系冲突）进行关联，建立大群体应急决策风险致因体系。在此基础上，设置由个体认可度、群体结构、沟通方式、决策策略和外部影响组成的仿真变量，然后基于观点动力学利用Netlogo工具建立大群体应急决策风险致因多主体仿真模型，最后通过案例模拟得出各风险因素致因机理的一般规律。仿真结果表明：控制高认可度决策主体的比例，增加聚集间交互，采取必要的预见性措施，对降低决策风险，提高决策共识速度，应对决策环境的高动态性具有积极作用。研究有助于掌握大群体应急决策风险因素的组成及其影响规律，为应急决策的策略引导提供参考和借鉴。     

A MODEL FOR SWITCHING DISPATCHING RULES IN REAL TIME IN A FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING CELL

We model choice of dispatching rules in real time (system state dependent) as a pattern recognition problem, using a modified version of Data Envelopment Analysis. A data base of system state and performance values is created from extensive simulation, and this data base is used to train the pattern-recognition model. Our results show that the model is very effective in choosing a mix of dispatching rules over a period of time, varying the mix with system objectives, and performing better than the strategy of using fixed rules. We show how “If-Then” decision rules can be created from the model and portrayed in a decision-tree-like diagram. Since such decision rules are based on rigorous mathematical foundations, optimization will be ensured in our approach.     

Batch process control using QFD matrices and simulation

An intuitive method for providing decision support of production control activities is proposed in which qualitative management information is represented by way of Quality Function Deployment matrices, while quantitative information is collected in the form of a simulation model of the plant. The quantitative-to-qualitative transform is provided by way ofgoal programming and fuzzy decision rules-where the latter naturally complements the symbolic method of representing information.     

An application of the AHP in vendor selection of a telecommunications system

Vendor selection of a telecommunications system is an important problem to a telecommunications company as the telecommunications system is a long-term investment for the company and the success of telecommunications services is directly affected by the vendor selection decision. Furthermore, the vendor selection of a telecommunications system is a complex multi-person, multi-criteria decision problem. The group decision-making process can be improved by a systematic and logical approach to assess priorities based on the inputs of several people from different functional areas within the company. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) can be very useful in involving several decision-makers with different conflicting objectives to arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper, an AHP-based model is formulated and applied to a real case study to examine its feasibility in selecting a vendor for a telecommunications system. The use of the proposed model indicates that it can be applied to improve the group decision making in selecting a vendor that satisfies customer specifications. Also, it is found that the decision process is systematic and that using the proposed AHP model can reduce the time taken to select a vendor.     

Editorial Another milestone

A Master Production Scheduling Decision Support System within a multi-product medical supplies market has the dual task of providing good customer service levels while maintaining minimum reasonable levels of finished goods stock in the face of considerable internal manufacturing lead time and customer demand uncertainty. This paper examines the critical design parameters within an adaptive model highlighting how the total system orders in the internal pipeline are utilized in the decision-making process for assessing how much to load the internal manufacturing pipeline. Two different methods for tracking manufacturing lead times within the adaptive loop are also considered. Classical control concepts are applied within the Decision Support System (DSS) to avoid any long-term drift in finished stocks. Finally scenario analysis is performed via simulation for a set of design parameters and a range of stimuli typical of company operating situations. An effective decision support system design in terms of architecture and parameter settings is recommended based upon the ability of the model to maintain high customer service levels. The DSS readily interfaces between marketing and production functions to enhance company competitive advantage across a wide range of products.     

非对称信息条件下业务外包的质量评价和转移支付决策

研究了不同信息条件下业务外包的产品质量评价问题,在文献[l,2]基础上考虑购买商作为委托人和供应商作为代理人建立了业务外包的委托代理模型。其中,质量预防水平为供应商的决策变量,购买商对供应商的转移支付和质量评价水平为购买商的决策变量。本文考虑了供应商质量预防信息隐匿情况,重点研究了非对称信息下业务外包的质量评价和转移支付问题,运用极大值原理推导了购买商的质量评价和转移支付的最优解。最后结合一个农机公司拖拉机生产业务外包问题进行了仿真计算和分析,对比了不同信息环境下的决策结果。     

基于交叉效率DEA与群体共识的区间乘性语言偏好关系群决策

针对区间乘性语言偏好关系群决策问题，提出了一种基于交叉效率DEA和群体共识的群决策方法。首先，提出乘性语言偏好关系导出函数的定义，并构建产出导向的DEA模型，证明了一致性乘性语言偏好关系的DEA效率得分与排序向量之间存在比例关系。在此基础上，建立基于理想值的交叉效率DEA模型，提出乘性语言偏好关系的通用排序方法。同时，基于群体共识建立目标规划模型来计算各语言偏好关系的权重系数。最后，利用Monte Carlo随机模拟的方法对群体语言偏好空间进行统计分析，得到群决策期望排序向量及其可信度。算例分析表明本文方法能够有效的避免信息损失，具有较强的适用性和较高的可信度。     

Information systems and managerial decision making

The role of an information system is to support managerial decision processes. Some of these processes can be completely specified in advance and, as long as the specification remains acceptable to management, resolution can be done automatically, within the framework of the information system. However, in other cases, managers are involved in all stages of the decision process, which cannot be completely specified in advance. The task of the information system in these cases is to provide information to the managers engaged in making the decisions. This paper considers these problems from the point of view of the information system designer and makes recommendations about design and implementation.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF INFORMATION UNDER TWO BUSINESS OBJECTIVES

Information economics models evaluate the value of information under the assumption that decision makers wish to maximize their expected payoff. This assumption has been criticized for not being realistic enough since decision makers usually consider more than one business objective and might be satisficers rather than optimizers. This paper attempts to apply an information economics model to decision situations where two business performance criteria, expected payoff and risk, are considered. In order to overcome the difficulty of unknown trade-off between the two criteria, one criterion is used as an objective to be optimized, while the other is set as a constraint. This may be interpreted as a combination of optimizing and satisficing approaches. It is shown how an information system can be evaluated in terms of both expected payoff and risk. The model suggests the trade-off between the two criteria as an additional trait of an information system. In the last part of the paper, a numerical example illustrates how a comparative evaluation of information structures is performed when risk minimization and expected payoff maximization are concurrently used as business performance criteria.     

Effects of Information Sequence and Irrelevant Distractor Information When Using a Computer‐based Decision Aid*

Computer‐based decision aids are intended to support and improve human judgments. Frequently, the largest portion of the design effort is devoted to the technical aspects of the system; behavioral aspects are often overlooked. As a result, the decision aid may be ineffective. An experiment was conducted to examine the effects of two information structure variables that theoretically affect judgments: information sequence and irrelevant distractor information. Auditor subjects made continuing existence judgments for client‐banks after interacting with one of four alternative decision aids. The decision aids are modifications of a system developed by an international CPA firm. Judgments were predicted to be more accurate when: (1) diagnostic information is presented late rather than early in the information sequence and (2) when no irrelevant distractor information is presented. Further, judgment confidence was predicted to be unrelated to either information sequence or irrelevant distractor information. The experimental data support all three predictions.     

Knowledge Representation and Reasoning in a Real-Time Operational Control System: The Shipboard Piloting Expert System (SPES)*

This paper describes a knowledge representation approach and reasoning implementation in a real-time knowledge-based control system (KBCS) for navigating ships in restricted waters. This shipboard piloting expert system (SPES) is being developed as an intelligent node in Sperry Marine's ExxBridge integrated ship's bridge system (IBS) for Exxon Shipping Company tankers. The SPES is intended to provide decision support to ships' navigation officers while piloting large vessels in restricted waters, and to reduce the information overload under which they labor, by incorporating local, transit-specific, and shiphandling knowledge, and by providing requisite decision support in a timely fashion. As such, the system provides decision support to (1) senior ships' pilots training junior pilots; (2) ships' masters training junior deck officers in the essentials of good piloting and shiphandling; and (3) watchstanding deck officers utilizing the system's on-line reminder and assist capabilities, or off-line simulation and contingency planning functionality.