Links between labor supply and unemployment: theory and empirics

A flow model of labor market participation is used to describe how various exogenous variations jointly affect unemployment and participation and provides short-run identification restrictions of a structural VAR. In some countries, fast rising female participation may have had a moderate short- and medium-run impact on unemployment rates. A variance decomposition exercise indicates that, in Continental Europe, participation is driven in the short run by unemployment shocks, whereas in the USA, it is driven by participation shocks (demography, immigration). Unemployment in Europe is driven by participation shocks, whereas in the USA, it is driven by unemployment shocks.      

Male labor force participation revisited

This paper evaluates hypotheses which incorporate designated socioeconomic variables and male age specific incidences of labor force participation. Salient independent variables include education, net migration, unemployment, and earnings. The multiple regression method of analysis is utilized with 100 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas comprising the basic units of a cross-sectional analysis. Regression results generally substantiate hypotheses and concur with the findings of previous investigators. But, in contrast to earlier studies, education and net migration emerge as leading determinants of areal labor force patterns; and regression results for men in central age groups are impressive both in terms of the frequency of statistically significant relationships and size of coefficients of determination. These departures from the results of past research are possibly due to the implementation of a more meaningful and rigorous methodology.     

Local labor markets,children and labor force participation of wives

Most research on married women’s labor force participation relates characteristics of individual women to their probability of labor force participation. Some studies relate characteristics of geographic areas to average labor force participation rates in those areas, although these aggregate level analyses are usually gross tests of ideas about individuallevel processes. Here we take a quintessentially sociological perspective and seek to understand how characteristics of geographic areas structure the relationship between properties of individual women and their probabilities oflabor force participation. Our analysis has two steps. In step one, we fit individual-level probit models of married women’s probability of labor force participation. A separate model is fitted in each of 409 areas using 1970 Census data, and the relationship between individual characteristics and labor force participation is found to vary substantially across areas. In step two, we attempt to explain areal variation in the effects of women’s children on their labor force participation. We hypothesize that the effect of children on their mothers’ labor force participation is a function ofthe cost and availability of childcare, and of the “convenience” of jobs for working mothers in the places where the mothers live. Measures of childcare cost, childcare availability and job convenience are developed. Weighted least squares analyses of probit coefficients from the first stage are, in general, very consistent with our findings, and suggest that the approach taken in this paper is likely to be a fruitful one for future studies.     

Japanese response to an aging labor force

Slowing population growth in Japan has led to concern about aging of the labor force in the context of the seniority wage and lifetime employment systems. There is no question that the labor force will age rapidly in the future. However, Japanese labor force institutions are more flexible than most Western observers have thought, and appropriate response to the changing demographic situation has already begun. The Japanese government and private enterprises are devising innovative policies for accommodating an older labor force.The author thanks the staff of the East-West Population Institute for assistance in the production of this article. In addition, the support of the Nihon University Population Research Institute is gratefully acknowledged.     

Economic development and labor force participation of older persons

The effect of economic development on labor force participation rates of older men and women is examined using national data for 134 countries. The analysis provides new insights into the evolution of retirement patterns with rising personal income, slowing population growth, the aging of the population, and shifts in the composition of employment. The analysis indicates a negative relationship between per capita income and labor force participation rates. This relationship is stronger for older men than for older women and is most apparent among middle income countries. An older population is associated with lower participation rates for older men and higher widow rates produce higher participation rates among older women. Industrial changes such as a decline in the proportion of the labor force employed in agriculture lower the proportion of older persons in the labor force. Finally, national social security policies are shown to impact the proportion of older persons that remains in the labor force.     

International migration and labor force participation of married women

A focal issue in international immigration research has been immigration adaptation and assimilation and especially absorption and integration of immigrants into labor force roles. Nevertheless, such research has largely been focused on immigrant men, neglecting the systematic examination of labor force participation among immigrant women. This research is focused on the correlates of economic activity among immigrant and native born Jewish, urban, married females aged 18–54 in Israel. The specific objectives of the investigation are: (1) the impact of education, socioeconomic status, familial child care burdens, and ethnic background on the economic activity of native-born and immigrant, married women; and (2) to evaluate the extent to which the above patterns vary by veterancy and age. The data for this analysis are drawn from Israel's quarterly labor force survey of 6,000 families for 1970 and 1971. Education, socioeconomic status, ethnic origin, and child care burden were all found to have some effect on women's labor force participation; however, the pattern of effect was different for younger and older women and varied by veterancy status. Indications can be found in the data that age at immigration, or in other words the point in the women's life cycle at which immigration occurs, makes a difference in the type and strength of effect of immigration on labor force participation.Requests for reprints should be directed to Moshe Hartman, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, Utah 84322.     

Individual mobility,population growth and labor force participation

Trends in labor force participation rates and the age of retirement are shown to be important determinants of upward mobility. Reductions in age specific participation rates increase the speed of movement through the employment hierarchy. In conjunction with economic development, the falling labor force participation of older men acts to offset the adverse effects of slowing population growth on promotional prospects. These conclusions are reached by extending a model of employment status developed by Keyfitz to limit employment competition to only those actually in the labor force.     

Skill premium effects on fertility and female labor force supply

In the last twenty years the United States has seen a positive relationship between female labor supply and total fertility rates, which differs from the pattern observed over the preceding years. We construct a general equilibrium overlapping generations model capable of generating this changing relationship between fertility and female labor supply. We argue that skilled biased technological change in recent decades has increased the skill premium and has therefore decreased the relative cost of (unskilled) child care services. The positive effect of the increase in female mean wages on fertility rates, and the inducement for labor force participation provided by the reduction in the relative cost of child care services, generated the positive relationship between fertility rates and female labor force participation in the last two decades.All correspondence to Amaia Iza. This paper has benefited particularly from comments by Juan Carlos Conesa, Pedro Mira and Sara de la Rica. We also acknowledge countless conversations with María Paz Espinosa and useful comments from Jaime Alonso, Jose María Da-Rocha, Tim Kehoe, José Victor Rios-Rull, when the paper was presented at the IV Workshop of Dynamic Macroeconomics held in Vigo (Spain, July 1999) and in Universidade de Vigo (October, 2000). We also thank an anonymous referee whose comments enabled us to improve the paper considerably. Financial support from Universidad del País Vasco 9UPV 00035.321-13511/2001, Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia PB097-0620, MCYT BEC2000/1394 and Instituto de la mujer (Ministerio de Trabajo y Asuntos Sociales) MTAS 33/00 is gratefully acknowledged. Any remaining errors are the authors responsibility. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Family composition and the labor force activity of American wives

This is a study of the employment patterns of American wives in relation to the composition of their families. The data are taken from the 1960 United States Census, both from published tabulations and the 1/1000 sample. The population studied is non-Negro, non-farm, married, husband present women who are under the age of sixty. The methods of analysis used include the comparison of employment rates among subpopulations and a dummy variable regression technique. Aspects of family composition studied include age of the youngest child (in single years in order to determine whether there are discontinuities in the rates of employment when youngest children enter school, etc.), number of children in the family, and the presence of other relatives in the family. The paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning of family status differentials in employment including differential preferences for employment, differential fertility experience, and differential demands on the mother’s time. Some discussion of the use of cross section data of this sort to infer life cycle patterns of employment is included.     

陕西省汉中市农业剩余劳动力的估算与思考

通过对农业剩余劳动力多种计量方法进行归纳分析,结合汉中市的实际,采用自然资源容纳法对汉中市农业剩余劳动力规模进行了全面估算,提出了转移农业剩余劳动力,扩展农民就业空间的对策建议。     

Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations

Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth.     

Equilibrium unemployment and the duration of unemployment benefits

This paper uses microdata to evaluate the impact on the steady-state unemployment rate of an increase in maximum benefit duration. We evaluate a policy change in Austria that extended maximum benefit duration and use this policy change to estimate the causal impact of benefit duration on labor market flows. We find that the policy change leads to a significant increase in the steady-state unemployment rate and, surprisingly, most of this increase is due to an increase in the inflow into rather than the outflow from unemployment.     

The labor force implications of expanding the child care industry

This paper examines the labor force implications of increased social investment in the child care industry. We have two main conclusions to report. First, expanding the child care industry will remove a major barrier to employment for a sizable number of women. This includes women in middle and upper income families who desire to work for personal fulfillment and to improve their families' lifestyles. But even more so, it includes women in low-income and single-parent families who need to work to maintain a minimal and dignified standard of living and who might otherwise remain dependent on welfare benefits for their own and their families' subsistence. Second, expanding the child care industry will help employers cope with a range of personnel problems they will increasingly face as the U.S. undergoes a major transition in the 1990's from being a labor surplus economy to being a labor shortage economy.     

The determinants and patterns of married women's labor force participation in Korea

The present study investigates the determinants and patterns of married women's labor force participation in Korea. Married women's employment in Korea is largely determined by age, urban residence, household characteristics of the husband's socioeconomic status, family income, fertility, and the lagged effect of work. Older age, rural residence, inferior household economic condition, and recent work experience are the major positive causes of married women's participation in the market work. On the other hand, younger women with preschool children, who currently reside in urban areas, enjoying better household economic conditions (due to higher socioeconomic status of husbands and/or higher family income) are the groups of women with the smallest probability of working in the market. Married women's employment pattern in Korea shows a pattern typical of less-developed and low-income countries in two aspects: married women working and characterized by a low level of education; the difference between urban and rural areas in terms of work participation pattern is remarkable. Although Korea belongs to the advanced group of currently industrializing countries, she lags behind with other developing countries in terms of married women's employment. Moreover, it is difficult to predict in advance that Korea would have similar experiences as those of contemporary advanced countries.     

吉林省城镇就业、失业和劳动参与的现状和对策

依据劳动经济理论,应用吉林省的微观数据,从劳动力的人口特征、受教育程度特征、户籍特征和地区差异等角度,研究吉林省失业率、就业率和劳动参与率的现状。针对吉林省城镇劳动就业中存在的问题,提出树立就业优先、发展新兴产业与第三产业、促进中小企业发展、健全劳动力市场体系和健全失业保险制度的政策建议。     

A local analysis of ethnic group population trends and projections for the UK

Projections of the UK’s ethnic populations from 2001 to 2051 show significant future change. Groups outside the White British majority will increase in size and share, not only in core areas but throughout the country. Ethnic minorities will shift out of deprived local authorities and into less deprived ones, while the White distribution remains stable. The share of the Mixed group population in the most deprived quintile (Q5) of local authorities reduces from 26 to 19%, while its share in the least deprived quintile (Q1) increases from 22 to 29%. The corresponding shifts for Asian groups are from 25 to 18% for Q5 and from 9 to 20% for the Q1. For Black groups the Q5 quintile sees a decrease from 54 to 39% while the Q1 sees an increase from 7 to 19%. There are shifts to local authorities with lower ethnic minority concentrations by Mixed, Asian and Black populations from local authorities with high ethnic concentrations, while the White, Chinese and Other group distributions remain in 2051 as they were in 2001. So, ethnic minority groups will be less segregated from the rest of the population in 2051 than in 2001. Indices of Dissimilarity between each group and the rest of the population fall by a third over the projection period. The UK in 2051 will be a more ethnically diverse society than in 2001.     

广西农业剩余劳动力转移状况研究

广西要想在西部率先全面建成小康社会。必须解决好农业剩余劳动力的转移问题。本文使用抽样法测算广西2008年农业剩余劳动力总数,并按照劳动力转移去向进行统计分析,揭示转移中存在的突出性问题和提出对策建议。     

The changing U. S. labor force and occupational differentiation by sex

The degree of occupational differentiation by sex in the U.S. labor force is examined utilizing various measures and occupational classifications over the period 1900-1970. A consideration of comparable occupations over time indicates that while occupational differentiation by sex is still substantial, an irregular, measurable decline in that differentiation has occurred during this century. Existing labor force structure seems relatively unimportant in explaining this ongoing change. Apparently more significant are social and historical factors as they have influenced specific occupations in certain decades.     

Household structure and labor force participation of black,hispanic, and white mothers

This paper investigates whether the inclusion of nonnuclear adults in a household facilitates the labor force participation of single and married mothers. Results based on a sample of extended and nuclear households show that the extension mechanism facilitates the labor market entry of married mothers, but not of single mothers. Interactions between extended structure, ethnicity, and poverty, however, suggest a complex relationship. For extended family households, the gender and employment characteristics of nonnuclear adults affected the labor force participation of single mothers, but the number of nonnuclear members was inversely associated with the market activity of married mothers. Policy implications are discussed in the final section.