On high fertility rates in developing countries: birth limits, birth taxes, or education subsidies?

In this paper, we consider two types of population policies observed in practice: birth limits and birth taxes. We find that both achieve very similar equilibrium solutions if tax revenue finances lump-sum transfers. By reducing fertility and promoting growth, both birth policies may achieve higher welfare than conventional education subsidies financed by income taxes. A birth tax for education subsidies can achieve the first-best solution. The welfare gain of the first-best policy may be equivalent to a massive 10–50% rise in income, depending on the degree of human capital externalities and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.      

Why does migration decrease fertility? Evidence from the Philippines

We model the impact of past migration on fertility, assessing the separate effects of relative urbanization of the destination, as a proxy for norms, and post-migration employment, as a proxy for opportunity costs. In the Philippines, we find that large fertility declines accompany post-migration employment. If not followed by work for pay, the estimated fertility impact of migration is small. We find little evidence of migrant selectivity in fertility, and offer speculative evidence that fertility disruption accompanying migration may be large enough to account for much of the apparent effect of normative adaptation.     

Does low fertility call for new policies in some Asian countries?

Over the past 2 decades, Japan, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea have completed a demographic transition from high birth and death rates and runaway population growth to reduced fertility and mortality and population growth approaching replacement levels. Among the outcomes of fertility decline, 3 have particularly far reaching effects: 1) Changes in family types and structures. Marriage and family formation are postponed, childbearing is compressed into a narrow reproductive span that begins later and ends earlier, and higher-order births become rare. Large families are replaced by small ones, and joint and extended families tend to be replaced by nuclear families. 2) Shifts in the proportions of young and old. Declining fertility means that the population as a whole becomes older. Decreases in the proportion of children provides an opportunity to increase the coverage of education. Increases in the proportion of the elderly means higher medical costs and social and economic problems about care of the aged. 3) Changes in the work force. There is concern that low fertility and shortages of workers will cause investment labor-intensive industries to shift to countries with labor surpluses. Another outcome may be an increase in female participation in the work force. The potential consequences of rapid fertility decline have sparked debate among population experts and policy makers throughout Asia. Current family planning programs will emphasize: 1) offering a choice of methods to fit individual preferences; 2) strengthening programs for sexually active unmarried people; 3) encouraging child spacing and reproductive choice rather than simply limiting the number of births; 4) making information available on the side effects of various family planning methods; 5) providing special information and services to introduce new methods; and 6) promoting the maternal and child health benefits of breast feeding and birth spacing.     

Why do women continue to smoke in pregnancy?

Smoking during pregnancy not only impacts on the woman's health but that of her unborn child. Women most likely to continue smoking throughout pregnancy are generally of lower age, socio-economic status, level of education and occupational status. Women who continue to smoke during pregnancy often feel criticized by society. They feel guilt and personal conflict at not quitting. Lack of long-term positive outcomes from anti-smoking campaigns may result form ignorance surrounding socio-economically disadvantaged women's life circumstances. Current interventions often ignore the emotional and psychological stressors associated with pregnancy; they do not address the altered physiological processes that occur during pregnancy. A review of the literature pertaining to women who smoke throughout pregnancy is presented. Women want an individualised approach to smoking cessation advice, with health care workers having knowledge of the woman's social situation and viewpoints. This paper reveals that the woman's perspective has largely been ignored. Indeed health care professionals have attempted to manipulate women to stop smoking rather than engage in mutually respectful dialogue.     

Returns to scale to family size - who gains from high fertility?

Summary In this paper the hypothesis put forward by J. C. Caldwell in a number of recent articles, including one in this journal is tested, that there are social and economic increasing returns to scale to family size. Using two village samples of household data collected in Bangladesh in 1977, it is shown that there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between adjusted consumption of rice per head and family size. This result holds true when age and size of landholding are taken into account. From this, it is concluded that the hypothesis is not empirically supported by the data from Bangladesh. This result is partially explained by the extreme poverty of the region and the fact that women are exploited in Bangladesh society.     

Self-care: Why do parents leave their children unsupervised?

We used a preferences-and-constraints model to develop four hypotheses to explain why parents may choose self-care (an unsupervised arrangement) as the primary child care arrangement for their children over supervised alternatives and tested them in a multivariate framework using 1995 data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We found that the choice of self-care over supervised care alternatives is linked to the availability of parents' time to care for children, the child's level of responsibility and maturity, and the neighborhood context. However, we found no evidence that parents' ability to pay for child care is related to the choice of self-care. The results also suggest that parents use different decision-making processes, depending on their children's ages.     

Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?

Recent literature finds that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate, which until the beginning of the 1980s had a negative value, has since acquired a positive value. This result is (explicitly or implicitly) often interpreted as evidence for a changing sign in the time-series association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries. This paper shows that the time-series association between fertility and female employment does not demonstrate a change in sign. Instead, the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation is most likely due to a combination of two elements: First, the presence of unmeasured country-specific factors and, second, country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment. However, the paper does find evidence for a reduction in the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment after about 1985.I benefited from stimulating discussions with Arnstein Aassve, Pau Baizan, Francesco Billari, Henriette Engelhardt, Hans-Peter Kohler and Alexia Prskawetz and a seminar in Rostock. Further, I am grateful to two anonymous referees for very useful suggestions that improved essentially the content of the paper. In addition, I thank Susan Masur, Susann Backer, and Elizabeth Zach for language editing. The views expressed in this paper are the authors own views and do not necessarily represent those of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Economic status proxies in studies of fertility in developing countries: Does the measure matter?

This paper investigates the consequences of using different economic status proxies on the estimated impact of economic status and other determinants of fertility. Using micro survey data from Ghana and Peru, we find that the proxies for income that best predict fertility are a principal components score of the ownership of consumer durable goods and a simple sum of ownership of these durable goods. Furthermore, the choice of the proxy generally has a minor influence on the predicted effects of the control variables. We compare the results from using a restricted set of proxies, such as those available in the Demographic and Health Surveys, with the results obtained using a lengthier set of proxies. Our results suggest implications beyond fertility analyses by providing researchers with an awareness of the sensitivity of microanalyses to the treatment of economic status. Our results also suggest practical recommendations for the collection of survey data.     

Why the rise in adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic in the 1990s?

Despite concern over high pregnancy rates and levels of risk for sexually transmittedinfections, adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic have not changed substantially since the early 1980's, and actually increased during the early to mid 1990s. The present study was undertaken to assess the factors contributing to the recent rise in fertility among Dominican adolescents. The findings suggest that although contraceptive use among adolescents and young adults has increased, this has been more than offset by ominous trends on other determinants of fertility. Among these are declines in mean age at first sex and first marriage/union without a commensurate decline in mean age at first contraceptive use, and stubbornly high discontinuation rates for oral contraceptives andcondoms. There is also some evidence that rates of induced abortion among adolescents may have increased, without which adolescent fertility rates would have been even higher. Demand for children among Dominican adolescents remains strong, suggesting that efforts to reduce the current high prevalence of risky sexual behaviors need to influence social norms in order to be successful.     

Why do people die in famines? Evidence from three island populations

There is surprisingly little consensus about what people die of during famines. In this paper, the causes of the increases in mortality during the Greek famine of 1941-43 are examined. The focus of the study is three island populations: Syros, Hios, and Mykonos. Death registration for these islands was not disrupted during the famine and the records give cause for death, certified by a doctor. Archival material and hospital records are utilized to assess public health during the famine. The findings point to the overwhelming importance of starvation for increased mortality during the famine and the virtual absence of either significant epidemics of infectious diseases or a breakdown in the public health system. The paper concludes by comparing the findings for the Greek famine with those for other famines. A model that attempts to explain the different courses that famine mortality can take is proposed.     

Will sex selection reduce fertility?

This paper investigates both theoretically and numerically the impact of sex selection on fertility. A static quantity-quality model of fertility is employed to compare fertility choices in two regimes: one in which parents cannot choose the gender of children and another in which parents can fully choose the gender of children. The static theory shows that whether sex selection reduces fertility depends on the second and third derivatives of the utility function and the child expenditure function. A numerical dynamic analysis is also presented. Using empirical dynamic models of fertility and Monte Carlo integration technique, the simulation shows that sex selection on the firstborn child among the Chinese in Malaysia could reduce fertility by about 3%.I thank the referees for their comments. I am indebted to James Heckman for providing generous computing support. Computational facilities were funded by NICHD Grant HD-19226 and NSF Grant SES-84-11242 to the Economics Research Center, NORC.     

Explaining welfare recidivism: what role do unemployment and initial spells have?

The question of high welfare re-entry rates has attracted great attention from economists and policymakers. Using a very rich administrative data set for the minimum income program of the Madrid Government (over 50,000 spells), this paper aims to broach various questions arising from the issue of welfare re-entry. We try to identify what factors determine observed differences in the durations of the first off-welfare spell. We analyze the combined effects of the length and type of exit of the first spell, unemployment, and sociodemographic characteristics. The experience of the first spell and, to a lesser extent, employability can contribute toward lengthening the time spent outside the program. Our results also show that off-welfare spells of households leaving the program in periods of low economic growth will be longer than those that do so during economic expansions. With the exception of unemployment effects, our estimates yield very similar results to those obtained in the U.S. studies, suggesting that U.S. welfare policies and analyses are not entirely irrelevant for European discussions of welfare policies.     

Unhealthy assimilation: Why do immigrants converge to American health status levels?

It is well documented that immigrants are in better health upon arrival in the United States than their American counterparts but that this health advantage erodes over time. We study the potential determinants of this "healthy immigrant effect, " with a particular focus on the tendency of immigrants to converge to unhealthy American BMI levels. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we find that average female and male immigrants enter the United States with BMIs that are approximately two and five percentage points lower than native-born women and men, respectively. Consistent with the declining health status of immigrants the longer they remain in the United States, we also find that female immigrants almost completely converge to American BMIs within 10 years of arrival, and men close a third of the gap within 15 years.     

Why does class matter? Policy attitudes,mechanisms, and the case of the Nordic countries

In most democracies, classes tend to vary with respect to an array of attitudes and behaviours, and differences are large within a number of European polities. What mechanisms lie behind these differences? Do they relate primarily to individuals’ material interests, as assumed by traditional class theories, or instead, to socialization and self-selection factors? This paper seeks to extend theory and research through an analysis of mechanisms behind class differences in policy attitudes. Our focus is on the Nordic countries, where class differences are extensive and well-documented in past scholarship. We take advantage of high-quality European Social Survey data for Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Analyzing three policy arenas and the 9-category European Socio-economic Classification scheme (ESeC), we find evidence that class-related factors help to explain cleavages in attitudes. Comparisons with the more detailed, 103-category International Standard Classification of Occupation scheme (ISCO) suggest that these factors explain less “micro-class” occupational variation. Results shed new light on mechanisms behind class differences, and the empirical foundations of established class theories. These and other implications are discussed in the conclusion.     

Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?

Nearly half of the world's population in 2000 lived in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement level, and nearly all countries will reach low fertility levels in the next two decades. Concerns about low fertility, fertility that is well below replacement, are widespread. But there are both persistent rationales for having children and institutional adjustments that can make the widespread intentions for two children attainable, even in increasingly individualistic and egalitarian societies.     

Why do some health care providers disrespect and abuse women during childbirth in India?

BackgroundDisrespect and abuse during childbirth can result in fear of childbirth. Consequently, women may be discouraged to seek care, increasing the likelihood for women to choose elective cesarean section in order to avoid humiliation, postnatal depression and even maternal mortality. This study investigates the causes underlying mistreatment of women during childbirth by health care providers in India, where evidence of disrespect and abuse has been reported.MethodsQualitative research was undertaken involving 34 in-depth interviews with midwifery and nursing leaders from India who represent administration, advocacy, education, regulation, research and service provision at state and national levels. Data are analysed thematically with NVivo12. The analysis added value by bringing an international perspective from interviews with midwifery leaders from Switzerland and the United Kingdom.FindingsThe factors leading to disrespect and abuse of women relate to characteristics of both women and their midwives. Relevant woman-related attributes include her age, gender, physical appearance and education, extending to the social environment including her social status, family support, culture of abuse, myths around childbirth and sex-based discrimination. Midwife-related factors include gender, workload, medical hierarchy, bullying and powerlessness.DiscussionThe intersectionality of factors associated with mistreatment during childbirth operate at individual, infrastructural, social and policy levels for both the women and nurse-midwives, and these factors could exacerbate existing gender-based inequalities. Maternal health policies should address the complex interplay of these factors to ensure a positive birthing experience for women in India.ConclusionMaternal health interventions could improve by integrating women-centred protocols and monitoring measures to ensure respectful and dignified care during childbirth.     

Why do some women participate in the labor force while others stay at home?

This study analyzed data from the 1970 Korean Census to uncover the determinants of women's labor force participation (LFP) in Korea, in 1970, when industrialization was beginning and the traditional sex-roles of Confucianism prevailed. The population surveyed included urban women aged 14-65 (19,277 married, 4373 single and living with parents, and 3222 single living independently). The study began by reviewing supply side explanations for LFP by women that predict women with high earning potential are likely to participate in the labor force, and noting that this economic explanation fails to consider the effects of cultural mechanisms that emphasize female domesticity. The study then comments on the labor market structure in Korea, in 1970, that led to limited employment opportunities for women, the domestic ideology that was prevalent during the early industrial stage, and the impact of this domestic ideology on Korean women. The logistic regressions used in the analytical methodology are then described, and it is hypothesized that women will be less likely to seek employment if they have adequate family resources, they are married and have children, and they are part of an extended family. It is further hypothesized that women's education will have no significant impact on employment and that university education is important as a marriage asset. The study results support this hypothesis in regard to single women living with parents, but reveal a slight effect of education on LFP among married women.     

Why do some pregnant women not fully disclose at comprehensive psychosocial assessment with their midwife?

ProblemWhile comprehensive psychosocial assessment is recommended as part of routine maternity care, unless women engage and disclose, psychosocial risk will not be identified or referred in a timely manner. We need to better understand and where possible overcome the barriers to disclosure if we are to reduce mental health morbidity and complex psychosocial adversity.AimsTo assess pregnant women’s attitude to, and reasons for non-disclosure at, comprehensive psychosocial assessment with their midwife.MethodsData from 1796 pregnant women were analysed using a mixed method approach. After ascertaining women’s comfort with, attitude to, and non-disclosure at psychosocial screening, thematic analysis was used to understand the reasons underpinning non-disclosure.Findings99% of participants were comfortable with the assessment, however 11.1% (N = 193) reported some level of nondisclosure. Key themes for non-disclosure included (1) Normalising and negative self-perception, (2) Fear of negative perceptions from others, (3) Lack of trust of midwife, (4) Differing expectation of appointment and (5) Mode of assessment and time issues.DiscussionFactors associated with high comfort and disclosure levels in this sample include an experienced and skilled midwifery workforce at the study site and a relatively advantaged and mental health literate sample. Proper implementation of psychosocial assessment policy; setting clear expectations for women and, for more vulnerable women, extending assessment time, modifying mode of assessment, and offering continuity of midwifery care will help build rapport, improve disclosure, and increase the chance of early identification and intervention.ConclusionsThis study informs approaches to improving comprehensive psychosocial assessment in the maternity setting.