天津市基础设施投资与经济社会发展关系的分析

基础设施是经济社会发展的基础，是衡量一个城市投资环境的重要方面，也是提高城乡人民物质文化生活水平的基本保障。比较世界各国近现代经济发展史，一般来说，经济发达的国家和地区基础设施都相当完备，而经济落后的地区基础设施相对薄弱，可见基础设施建设已成为影响国民经济发展的重要因素。因此，正确理解基础设施投资在全市经济社会中的地位和作用，协调好二者之间的关系，实现城市功能定位，促进天津经济和社会又好又快发展至关重要。     

城市生态化水平评价的指标体系研究

1.生态城市的内涵 从联合国科教文组织发起的"人与生物圈"(MAB)计划提出生态城市这一概念到现在,生态城市的内涵在不断充实和完善.特别是随着可持续发展观的提出,生态城市的创建和评价融入了较多的社会、基础设施和经济等方面的内容,体现了泛生态观的理念.生态城市是经济高效、社会和谐、基础设施配套、环境优美的人类居住地.     

北京市物流业波及效应研究

物流业是现代流通的重要组成部分,是加快经济循环,提高流通效率的重要环节。北京作为我国的首都、政治文化经济中心和超大型城市,物流资源丰富,区位条件优越,是我国重要的交通枢纽和全国性物流节点城市。近年来,北京物流业总体规模快速扩张、基础设施日益完善、空间布局不断优化、发展水平显著提高、发展环境明显改善,已基本形成了公路、铁路、航空互为补充的综合立体交通网络和三     

城市基础设施建设引入民间资本的探索

城市基础设施是城市与区域经济发展的重要载体,也是当前和今后一段时间制约城市与区域经济发展的瓶颈.改革开放以来,我国经济的持续快速发展和城市居民生活水平的不断提高,对城市基础设施提出了更高的要求.城市基础设施建设项目投资金额大、周期长,政府单一投资主体难以达到基础设施长期稳定发展的目标.预计未来经济将继续快速增长,在当前财政投融资能力相对不足的情况下,吸引民间资本进入基础设施显得非常必要和紧迫.     

低碳城市评价指标体系的构建

低碳城市是伴随着低碳经济提出的发展目标。构建全面的低碳城市评价指标体系有助于准确认识和量化评价低碳城市,推动其建设和发展。因此,文章在分析低碳城市的内涵及特点基础上,试图从经济低碳化、基础设施低碳化、生活方式低碳化、低碳技术发展、低碳制度完善度和生态环境优良六个方面构建一个比较全面有效的低碳城市评价指标体系,以期推动我国低碳城市的建设和发展。     

城市基础设施建设国债投资分析——行业系列分析之三

城市基础设施是现代城市赖以生存和发展的基本条件,是为城市国民经济各部门、人民生活提供服务的载体。它包括：给水排水系统、污水处理、燃气系统、城市供热、市内道路桥梁隧道、公共交通、园林绿化、环境卫生、防洪防火防震设施等。城市基础设施的好坏直接影响到城市经...     

尽快编制发布城市堵车指数

城市经济是我国国民经济的主体。 目前城市经济的进一步发展急需解决的是城市的基础设施。基础设施涉及的内容很多，大致我们可以把它分为：基础的基础设施与上层的基础设施。前者包括：路、水、电力、气、电信、环卫等，后者包括：中小学校、非营利医院、警署、公园、廉租屋等。其中，在基础的基础设施中，最为关键的是路。关于路，笔者的基本观点是：既要抓硬投入，更要抓软投入。要想富先修路，这已被国内外经验证实。这里我们先作一下国际对比。据90年代前期统计，美国铁路营业里程为19万公里，加拿大为6万公里，英国为1.6万公里(国土为…     

生态城市规划探讨

城市规划是城市建设的总纲,科学编制生态城市规划,是建设生态城市的前提和基础。生态城市的内容主要包括经济总量的提高和生态经济的发展、城市人口的分布。自然生态环境的改善和环境质量的提高。编辑生态城市规划,首先要建立一套由经济、社会和环境三方面要素构成的生态城市规     

关于广州城市综合环境的比较研究

广州在世纪之交面临的重大问题，是城市经济增长与城市综合环境能否和谐统一，这不仅关系到广州城市综合实力的进一步增强，而且关系到广州城市整体素质的提高和经济可持续发展。文章从广州城市综合环境的发展现状和存在问题、广州与国内６个主要城市综合环境质量的比较、改善广州城市综合环境的思路及对策几个方面进行了论述，指出改善广州城市综合环境已迫在眉睫     

发展产业投资基金 促进基础设施建设

一、城市基础设施建设的现状与矛盾城市基础设施是城市经济、社会和文化活动的载体，是城市生存和发展的基础。随着城市的发展，我国城市基础设施的落后状况越来越突出，成为城市进一步发展，实现城市现代化和国际化的障碍。目前，我国城市基础设施建设的矛盾主要体现在以...     

Optimal adaptive designs for acute oral toxicity assessment

Acute oral toxicity studies are used to assess the toxicity to experimental animals of a single dose of the substance under investigation, assigning the substance to one of a number of classes. Animal welfare concerns have led to the development of three adaptive designs as alternatives to the traditional fixed sample design. These lead to reductions in the number of animals required in total and in the number exposed to lethal doses. In this paper, we show how designs can be constructed to optimise utility functions combining the need to classify correctly with the desire to use a small number of animals. Constrained optimal designs are also obtained in which no animal is exposed to a dose higher than that at which a death has been observed. The optimal designs lead to the correct classification with high probability whilst reducing the expected number of animal deaths relative to existing adaptive designs.     

On a redundant repairable system with switching failure: Bayesian approach

System characteristics of a redundant repairable system are studied from a Bayesian viewpoint with different types of priors assumed for the unknown parameters. The system consists of two primary units, one standby unit, and one repair facility which is activated when switching to standby fails. Times to failure and times to repair of the operating units are assumed to follow exponential distributions. When time to failure and time to repair have uncertain parameters, a Bayesian approach is adopted to evaluate system characteristics. Monte Carlo simulation is used to derive the posterior distribution for the mean time to system failure and steady-state availability. Some numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the results derived in this paper.     

On implementing Jeffreys' substitution likelihood for Bayesian inference concerning the medians of unknown distributions

When statisticians are uncertain as to which parametric statistical model to use to analyse experimental data, they will often resort to a non-parametric approach. The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into a simple approach to take when it is unclear as to the appropriate parametric model and plan to conduct a Bayesian analysis. I introduce an approximate, or substitution likelihood, first proposed by Harold Jeffreys in 1939 and show how to implement the approach combined with both a non-informative and an informative prior to provide a random sample from the posterior distribution of the median of the unknown distribution. The first example I use to demonstrate the approach is a within-patient bioequivalence design and then show how to extend the approach to a parallel group design.     

Get Full Text Research and the Search for Appropriate Copies

Abstract

A group of the largest academic publishers has launched a new service to simplify access to full-text research for users of discovery services and scholarly collaboration platforms. While this service aims to provide easy access to full-text articles using article-level entitlement information linked to institutions through Seamlessaccess.org, it also introduces ambiguity. The service allows for publishers to direct users to alternative versions when a full-text entitlement is not found for the user, though users may already be entitled to full text through providers that do not participate in the service. Depending on specific implementations, this could lead to further confusion and make it more difficult for users to find an appropriate copy.     

A response to M. Stone: 'How not to measure the efficiency of public services (and how one might)'

Summary.  This is a response to Stone's criticisms of the Spottiswoode report to the UK Treasury which was responding to the Treasury's request for improved methods to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of the 43 police districts in England and Wales. The Spottiswoode report recommended uses of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), which Stone critiqued en route to proposing an alternative approach. Here we note some of the most serious errors in his criticism and inaccurate portrayals of DEA and SFA. Most of our attention is devoted to DEA, and to Stone's recommended alternative approach without much attention to SFA, partly because of his abbreviated discussion of the latter. In our response we attempt to be constructive as well as critical by showing how Stone's proposed approach can be joined to DEA to expand his proposal beyond limitations in his formulations.     

Estimation and Testing of Learning Curves

This article describes a new approach to learning curve estimation. Our approach is to formulate statistical procedures that conform to alternative learning curve theories. This leads to the development of nonlinear statistical models of the learning curves. For the three data sets analyzed, autocorrelation seems to be an important problem. Parameter estimates were derived using the maximum likelihood principle in the presence of first-order autocorrelation. Nonnested tests were used to select the appropriate formulation of the learning curve. Research conclusions are to use unit data when estimating a learning curve and to be prepared to treat autocorrelation if present.     

A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.     

Prediction for generalized linear models

Regression models are often used to make predictions. All the information needed is contained in the predictive distribution. However, this cannot be evaluated explicitly for most generalized linear models. We construct two approximations to this distribution and demonstrate their use on two sets of survival data, corresponding to the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units and the survival times of leukaemia patients.Regression models are often used to make predictions. All the information needed is contained in the predictive distribution. However, this cannot be evaluated explicitly for most generalized linear models. We construct two approximations to this distribution and demonstrate their use on two sets of survival data, corresponding to the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units and the survival times of leukaemia patients.Regression models are often used to make predictions. All the information needed is contained in the predictive distribution. However, this cannot be evaluated explicitly for most generalized linear models. We construct two approximations to this distribution and demonstrate their use on two sets of survival data, corresponding to the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units and the survival times of leukaemia patients.Regression models are often used to make predictions. All the information needed is contained in the predictive distribution. However, this cannot be evaluated explicitly for most generalized linear models. We construct two approximations to this distribution and demonstrate their use on two sets of survival data, corresponding to the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units and the survival times of leukaemia patients.     

Waiting time to exhaust lottery numbers

Questions related to lotteries are usually of interest to the public since people think there is a magic formula which will help them to win lottery draws. This note shows how to compute the expected waiting time to observe specific numbers in a sequence of lottery draws and show that surprising facts are expected to occur.     

我国35个大中城市房价-持久收入比研究

房价收入比是反映居民购房可支付能力的重要指标。为了更真实准确反映我国居民长期承受的购房负担,本文基于持久收入假说,利用我国35个大中城市数据,建立状态空间模型,估计出持久收入意义下的房价收入比,通过情景分析确定其合理上限,并分析主要特征。研究表明：①我国房价-持久收入比的合理上限为7.6,2002-2013年35个大中城市的房价-持久收入比均值是9.2,其中28个城市已超过该上限,比值最高的北京已达到14.9;②城市越发达,则房价-持久收入比越高,居民需要承受的购房压力越大,且在时间趋势上,一线与二三线城市间的差距呈现扩大趋势;③在地理分布上,我国东部、中部、东北地区、西部大中城市的房价-持久收入比呈现从高到低的排列顺序;④相比于传统方法中根据可支配收入测算的房价收入比,房价-持久收入比与其约有10%的差异。当前我国政府应采取有效措施继续限制房价,减轻居民购房负担。