中国经济内外失衡的相关性分析

文章在“双缺口”模型理论基础上,运用VAR模型对我国改革开放以来内部失衡和外部失衡之间的相关关系进行了实证研究.研究结果表明,内部失衡对我国经济总体失衡有很强的冲击作用,前期的内部失衡加剧了当期内外经济失衡；外部失衡对经济总体失衡具有负向效应,但影响力度较之前者要小,显著性也较差.从而得出当期中国经济内外失衡的产生更大程度上取决于内部经济的失衡,尤其是储蓄、投资、消费结构的失衡.     

嵌入资本项目的中国经济内外均衡关系理论模型

文章在大国的内外均衡模型的基础上，构建嵌入资本项目的内外均衡理论模型，并运用该模型分析我国内外失衡之间的关系，发现从形成条件看，中国经济的内外失衡趋向逐步缓解，如果条件发生变化，中国国内储蓄和投资盈余和国际收支的进出口盈余会同时减少。     

我国国内资本流动的结构性变迁研究

一、引言在一个封闭的宏观经济中 ,投资主要来源于储蓄 ,并且事后的实际投资总量等于事后的实际储蓄总量 ,此时财政政策和货币政策对私人投资和消费有完全的影响 ,任何可观察到的储蓄增长意味着投资的增加。但在一个开放经济中 ,对经济的每一个地区或部门 ,储蓄和投资并不相等 ,储蓄和投资之间会出现不平衡缺口 ,资本便在不同地区和部门之间流动 ,此时财政政策和货币政策的效果要受到资本流动的影响 ,如果不平衡缺口小 ,储蓄结构直接制约投资结构 ,如果缺口大 ,储蓄结构只能通过资本流动间接影响投资结构。储蓄投资的不平衡缺口的出现有多种…     

劳动力市场扭曲与中国宏观经济失衡

 本文建立一个简单的理论模型分析了劳动力市场负向扭曲对我国宏观经济的影响，并利用1998~2005年我国30个省市自治区的面板数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：劳动力市场负向扭曲是造成我国宏观经济失衡的主要原因。在封闭经济条件下，劳动力市场负向扭曲会导致我国的内需不足，投资快速增长，企业的生产能力过剩，经济出现内部失衡；而在开放经济条件下，经济的内部失衡会导致我国符合自身比较优势的劳动密集型产品出口的快速增长，同时由于技术贸易壁垒，进口不能相应增长，经济出现外部失衡。因此，采取有效措施缓解我国劳动力市场的负向扭曲问题是解决当前我国宏观经济失衡的关键。     

利率变动对我国经济主体的行为影响与政策选择

2007年央行6次调整利率,明显加大了运用利率政策工具进行宏观调控的力度.但从公布的各项数据来看,我国经济仍然呈现出比较明显的外部失衡和内部失衡,显然央行频繁使用利率政策并未达到预期效果.文章通过对历史数据的分析,得出我国利率变化对经济主体行为影响.实证结果表明:实际利率对居民定期储蓄的影响很小、与居民消费之间不存在显著的相关关系、对固定资产投资的影响也很小,由此我们可以探出当前利率政策不理想的原因,在此基础上对当前我国利率政策的实施提出了相应的政策建议.     

利率市场化与我国居民储蓄投资的有效转化

居民储蓄可以通过以下三个渠道转化为投资 :实物形式的储蓄直接转化为投资 ;金融形式的储蓄通过银行贷款转化为投资 ;金融形式的储蓄通过企业直接融资转化为投资。市场化的利率作为资金商品的价格 ,在这三个渠道中发挥其配置资金的作用从而使居民储蓄向投资有效转化。本文考察了我国实际利率在居民储蓄向投资转化的上述三个渠道中的作用 ,分析了利率在后两个渠道中失灵的原因及后果 ,并提出了积极推进利率的市场化进程的政策建议     

宏观金融效率的变化趋势分析

本文采用因子分析法,对1991—2006年我国宏观金融效率的变化趋势进行了综合评价分析。结果显示,如果把金融运行分为储蓄动员、储蓄投资转化和投资投向这样三个前后关联的环节,那么,在此期间我国的宏观金融效率经历了”由强转弱,再由弱变强”的变化过程;目前我国的资金使用效率相对最好,储蓄动员效率次之,而储蓄投资转化效率则相对最差。     

家庭投资理财有哪些方式

今天，债券、股票、保险、期货、彩票等投资理念已深入人心，许多家庭乐此不疲。正如英国十八世纪的作家约翰生的一句至理名言：“既会花钱，又会赚钱的人是最幸福的人，因为他享受两种快乐。”城乡居民家庭投资理财方式呈现多样化。 居民家庭在进行投资之前，应首先了解家庭投资方式的种类，并了解每一种投资方式的内容及其特点，然后根据家庭情况及其兴趣爱好加以选择。 储蓄——聚财受益的投资 储蓄或者说存款，是深受普通居民家庭欢迎的投资行为，也是人们最常使用的一种投资方式。对储户来说，参与储蓄不仅支援了国家建设，也…     

居民金融投资变化趋势

居民部门净金融投资的地位改革开放以来,支撑中国渐进改革的资金来源发生了很大的变化。由于隐性税收机制的解体以及国民收入分配结构由“藏富于国”转向“藏富于民”的根本转变,使得政府的储蓄在GDP中的比重呈连年下降态势。国有企业在“放权让利”、“租赁制”、“承包制”、“股份制”等改革过程中,经营机制还没有得到根本的改善,由于产权结构没有实质性的触动,企业也没有建立起良好的内部控制机制以及激励约束机制,盈利能力未见明显起色,自我积累非常有限,其本身就存在巨大的资金供求缺口。而居民部门的金融剩余增长,正好为中国的资本…     

土地融资、城市化失衡与地方债务风险

本文研究了土地融资对我国城市化失衡的影响效果、地区异质性表现以及背后隐藏的债务风险。利用2007-2015年间地级市数据的实证结果表明：地方政府的土地融资活动显著促进了“土地城市化快于人口城市化”这一失衡现象的形成,并且此影响在人口流出地和中西部地区的城市表现得更显著。进一步分析发现：“负债型”城市化融资与“供给型”城市建设相结合的发展模式可能引致较大的地方政府债务风险,主要体现为土地融资会加重发展失衡城市的债务负担,而投资回报和效率较低是造成这一结果的重要机制。以上结论意味着不考虑需求因素而盲目依靠债务性投资驱动城市化发展的方式是不可持续的,应探索建立推动城市化良性发展的融资体系,并在土地融资与城市公共服务供给之间建立稳定的投入联系。     

Econometric disequilibrium models ∗

Four basic strands in the disequilibrium literature are identified. Some examples are discussed and the canonical econometric disequilibrium model and its estimation are dealt with in detail. Specific criticisms of the canonical model,dealing with price and wage rigidity, with the nature of the min condition and the price-adjustment equation, are considered and a variety of modifications is entertained. Tests of the “equilibrium vs. disequilibrium” hypothesis are discussed, as well as several classes of models that may switch between equilibrium and disequilibrium modes. Finally, consideration is given to multimarket disequilibrium models with particular emphasis on the problems of coherence and estimation.     

Econometric disequilibrium models

Four basic strands in the disequilibrium literature are identified. Some examples are discussed and the canonical econometric disequilibrium model and its estimation are dealt with in detail. Specific criticisms of the canonical model,dealing with price and wage rigidity, with the nature of the min condition and the price-adjustment equation, are considered and a variety of modifications is entertained. Tests of the “equilibrium vs. disequilibrium” hypothesis are discussed, as well as several classes of models that may switch between equilibrium and disequilibrium modes. Finally, consideration is given to multimarket disequilibrium models with particular emphasis on the problems of coherence and estimation.     

金融压抑、信贷结构与滞涨效应

卡瓦诺等经济学家认为由于发展中国家普遍存在金融压抑现象,银行信贷成为企业运营资本的主要来源,而紧缩的货币政策通过减少企业的信贷供给,在短期内会产生滞涨现象,即存在卡瓦诺效应。为此,构建一个非均衡的理论模型,并用SUR模型对中国的数据进行实证研究,结果表明:卡瓦诺效应在中国同样是存在的,信贷结构对滞涨效应的大小有着明显的影响,而且控制信贷规模比提高存款准备金率的滞涨效应更为显著。     

Disequilibrium multi-dividing ontology learning algorithm

As an effective tool for data storage, processing, and computing, ontology has been used in many fields of computer science and information technology. By means of its powerful performance on semantic query and knowledge extraction, domain ontology has been built on various disciplines such as biology, pharmaceutics, geography, chemistry, etc. and been smoothly employed for their engineering applications. In these ontology applications, we aim to get an optimal ontology function which maps each ontology to a real number and then determine the similarity between concepts by the distance of their corresponding real numbers. In former ontology learning approaches, all the instances in the training sample have equal status in the learning process. In this article, we present the disequilibrium multi-dividing ontology algorithm in which the important ontology data will be highlighted during the learning, and the relevant ontology data tend to be eliminated. Four experiments are designed to test the serviceability of our disequilibrium multi-dividing algorithm from angles of ontology similarity measuring and ontology mapping construction.     

A Note on Capacity Utilization and Measurement of Scale Economies

This article investigates the measurement of returns to scale (RTS) via a cost function in the presence of quasi-fixed inputs. Caves, Christensen, and Swanson (CCS) proposed estimation of a variable-cost function and derived a formula for computing RTS from it. This article extends the CCS results by (a) investigating the bias that would result from erroneously using a total-cost function for measuring RTS, (b) indicating that the CCS procedure for measuring scale economies in the presence of quasi-fixed inputs is inconsistent for the case of nonhomothetic production technology, and (c) proposing an alternative procedure that allows one to evaluate RTS at long-run equilibrium points, even when firms in the sample are in disequilibrium. The similarity between this proposed method and the “temporary” equilibrium approach for measuring productivity growth is noted as well. The empirical results on RTS are compared among the three alternative methods (total-cost, CCS variable-cost, and proposed long-run equilibrium methods).     

Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment

This article proposes an extension to the Engle–Granger testing strategy by permitting asymmetry in the adjustment toward equilibrium in two different ways. We demonstrate that our test has good power and size properties over the Engle–Granger test when there are asymmetric departures from equilibrium. We consider an application—namely, whether there exists cointegration among interest rates for instruments with different maturities. This issue has been widely tested with mixed results. We argue that either cautious policy, or possibly opportunistic behavior on the part of the Federal Reserve implies that an equilibrium relationship between short- and long-term interest rates exists but that adjustments from disequilibrium are asymmetric in nature. Empirical tests using U.S. yields confirm the asymmetric nature of error correction among interest rates of different maturities.     

粮食生产布局与人口分布的空间差异及其演变

中国“耕地-粮食-人口”系统矛盾日益尖锐,粮食安全问题形势严峻。人口分布状况与粮食消费密切相关,对粮食生产与人口分布的空间格局进行对比,有助于理解粮食生产与消费的空间差异。提出粮食生产重心和消费重心的概念,利用ArcviewGIS计算1995—2006年中国三大地区的粮食生产重心和消费重心,绘制其时空演变轨迹图,分析了两者的空间不平衡性及演变态势。分析表明：中西部地区逐渐成为粮食生产中心,人口重心南移,加大北粮南运的压力。最后,提出解决粮食生产布局与人口分布不平衡的若干建议和对策：推广运输补贴促进粮食运输,在生产区进行粮食深加工,健全粮食产销运输协调机制。     

Semi-parametric estimation of disequilibrium models

This paper presents an easy-to-compute semi-parametric (SP) method to estimate a simple disequilibrium model proposed by Fair and Jaffee (1972). The proposed approach is based on a non-parametric interpretation of the EM (Expectation and Maximization) principle (Dempster et al; 1977) and the least squares method. The simple disequilibrium model includes the demand equation, the supply equation, and the condition that only the minimum of quantity demanded and quantity supplied is observed. The method used here allows one to consistently estimate the disequilibrium model without fully specifying the distribution of error terms in both demand and supply equations. Our Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposedestimator is better than the normal maximum likelihood estimator under asymmetric error distributions. and comparable to the nlaximunl likelihood estimator under synirnetric error distributions in finite samples. Aggregate U.S. labor market data from Quandt and Rosen (1988) is used to illustrate the procedure.     

A Unified Approach to Structural Change Tests Based on ML Scores,F Statistics,and OLS Residuals

This paper presents an easy-to-compute semi-parametric (SP) method to estimate a simple disequilibrium model proposed by Fair and Jaffee (1972). The proposed approach is based on a non-parametric interpretation of the EM (Expectation and Maximization) principle (Dempster et al; 1977) and the least squares method. The simple disequilibrium model includes the demand equation, the supply equation, and the condition that only the minimum of quantity demanded and quantity supplied is observed. The method used here allows one to consistently estimate the disequilibrium model without fully specifying the distribution of error terms in both demand and supply equations. Our Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposedestimator is better than the normal maximum likelihood estimator under asymmetric error distributions. and comparable to the nlaximunl likelihood estimator under synirnetric error distributions in finite samples. Aggregate U.S. labor market data from Quandt and Rosen (1988) is used to illustrate the procedure.     

企业集团内部市场对上市公司盈余质量影响的实证研究

集团内部市场对集团内上市公司盈余质量有着正反两个方面的影响,＂效率促进＂有利于盈余质量,而大股东＂掏空＂则会有损于盈余质量。根据交易内容把集团内部市场具体分为内部产品市场、内部资本市场、内部资产市场、内部担保市场和其他内部市场五个子市场,以中证800指数上市公司2004-2008年的财务数据作为检验样本进行实证分析,结果表明：企业集团内部市场本身的存在与会计盈余质量显著正相关。内部产品市场的交易规模与上市公司盈余质量显著正相关,而内部资本市场的交易规模与盈余质量显著负相关,其他几个内部子市场的交易规模与盈余质量呈现不显著的负相关。