‘Pushing buttons‘: an evaluation of the effect of Aboriginal income management on commercial gambling expenditure

The Northern Territory National Emergency Response Act 2007 was a radical intervention into the lives of Aboriginal residents of the Northern Territory, Australia. One of the intervention's key measures was income management – a scheme designed to limit the range of goods and services that may be purchased with social security payments. The aim of income management was to curb 'anti‐social behaviours' such as excessive gambling and alcohol consumption. In this paper, we specifically test the efficacy of income management in reducing the amount spent on commercial gambling. To achieve this we conduct an interrupted time series analysis with deflated monthly electronic gaming machine (EGM) expenditure data from July 2002 to July 2010 for hotels and clubs in the towns of Alice Springs and Katherine. We find a negative association between income management and EGM revenues for only one gambling venue in each town. However, local complexity in the form of segregated markets along temporal, spatial and racial lines, along with other policy confounders, may obscure the effects of the macro‐policy intervention. We conclude by making suggestions for locally‐based responses to problematic forms of risky consumption that may be more sensitive to local geographies.     

Revisiting property crime and economic conditions: An exploratory study to identify predictive indicators beyond unemployment rates

Numerous researchers have questioned the use of the unemployment rate as an explanatory factor in econometric studies which address the relationship between the economy and crime. This paper presents the findings from an exploratory study which sought to test the efficacy of the unemployment rate for predicting reported property crime rates and to identify other economic indicators which may also prove to be useful for predicting crimes with economic under tones or motives. Specifically, larceny-theft, burglary, motor vehicle theft, robbery, fraud and embezzlement. Given the exploratory nature of the study seven stepwise regressions were computed with unemployment emerging as a significant predictor for only one of the criminal offenses. Findings identified other useful economic variables, such as average wage and salary disbursements, supplemental security income receipts, the consumer price index and per capita personal income which should be considered in lieu of unemployment rates.     

Public Opinion and The Politics of Gambling

This paper examines the relation between the attitudes of the public toward gambling and recent changes in gambling laws. The nineteenth century wave of antigambling sentiment found expression in many state constitutions. Consequently, legalization or decriminalization of gambling became unusually difficult among that class of activities often referred to as "victimless crimes." Renewed interest in gambling as a revenue source, in the last few decades, has produced a number of surveys dealing with attitudes toward gambling and has required statewide votes on some 45 separate gambling items. Public attitudes are compared, along several dimensions, for results of a national survey and results of voting on particular gambling proposals. Attitudes are consistent between survey data and voting data, particularly as they pertain to administrative and regulatory form. Also, in one state, demographic variables discriminating favorability in the survey data predict voting outcome on a lottery proposal.     

The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?

This paper examines the impact of three fiscal policy shocks on per capita real GDP and income inequality in Australia during the period 1965–2014. A small structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is constructed for an open economy for contemporaneous identification and estimation purposes. Based on the evidence of one cointegrating vector among the variables, a structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is specified for the long run. Direct taxation, indirect taxation receipts and government spending are identified as permanent fiscal policy shocks. The convergent use of two different models (SVAR & SVEC) strengthens the credibility of the results. The results have three key policy implications. First, a reduction in direct taxation receipts increases per capita real GDP without increasing income inequality. Second, a reduction in government expenditure significantly increases income inequality. Third, the adverse effect of indirect taxation receipts on income inequality is greater than the redistributive effect of government expenditure, which questions the widely held fiscal policy strategy of using indirect taxation to finance redistributive expenditure.     

The Proportion of Gaming Revenue Derived from Problem Gamblers: Examining the Issues in a Canadian Context

The legitimacy of government-sponsored gambling and its continued expansion depends in part on the impact that gambling has on society and the extent to which gambling revenue is derived from vulnerable individuals. The purpose of the present article is to try to establish a valid estimate of the proportion of gaming revenue derived from problem gamblers in Canada. Using recent secondary data collected in eight Canadian provinces, we estimate this proportion to be 23.1%, compared to a problem gambling prevalence rate of 4.2%. This estimate must be seen as tentative, however, as self-reported expenditures are 2.1 times higher than actual provincial gaming revenues.     

Fiscal Policy and Urban and Rural Residents＇ Marginal Propensity to Consume

基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20％。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,．除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。     

The Micro and Macro Dimensions of Gambling in the United States

A national probability sample of 1736 respondents and a Nevada State probability sample of 296 respondents were surveyed during the summer of 1975 to determine the extent of gambling activity in the United States, to estimate the amount of government revenue that could result from various changes in the gambling laws, and to predict the social consequences of these changes. While there were large variations among regions and demographic groups, a majority of all adult Americans gamble. Wagers on commercial games amounted to $22.4 billion in 1974 of which $17 billion was wagered legally and approximately $5 billion illegally.     

On Elements of Chance

One aspect of the utility of gambling may evidence itself in failures of idempotence, i.e., when all chance outcomes give rise to the same consequence the `gamble' may not be indifferent to its common consequence. Under the assumption of segregation, such gambles can be expressed as the joint receipt of the common consequence and what we call `an element of chance', namely, the same gamble with the common consequence replaced by the status quo. Generalizing, any gamble is indifferent to the joint receipt of its element of chance and a certain consequence, which is called the `kernel equivalent' of the gamble. Under idempotence, the kernel equivalent equals the certainty equivalent. Conditions are reported (Theorem 4) that are sufficient for the kernel equivalents to have the kind of utility representation first discussed by Luce and Fishburn (1991), including being idempotent. This utility representation of the kernel equivalents together with the derived form of utility over joint receipts yields a utility representation of the original structure. Possible forms for the utility of an element of chance are developed.     

Credit Unions: A Partial Solution to the Consumer Credit Problems of Low Income Families

An anomaly of Australia's economic system is that those who can least afford to pay dearly for consumer credit (low income families), are the ones who must pay more. It is suggested that a partial solution to the consumer credit problems of low income families lies in the use of credit unions. This paper examines the consumer credit problems of such families, illustrates how credit unions function and indicates where they may be useful in providing cheap credit to low income families.     

INCREASING INCREMENT GENERALIZATIONS OF RANK-DEPENDENT THEORIES

Empirical evidence from both utility and psychophysical experiments suggests that people respond quite differently—perhaps discontinuously—to stimulus pairs when one consequence or signal is set to `zero.' Such stimuli are called unitary. The author's earlier theories assumed otherwise. In particular, the key property of segregation relating gambles and joint receipts (or presentations) involves unitary stimuli. Also, the representation of unitary stimuli was assumed to be separable (i.e., multiplicative). The theories developed here do not invoke separability. Four general cases based on two distinctions are explored. The first distinction is between commutative joint receipts, which are relevant to utility, and the non-commutative ones, which are relevant to psychophysics. The second distinction concerns how stimuli of the form (x, C; y) and the operation of joint receipt are linked: by segregation, which mixes stimuli and unitary ones, and by distributivity, which does not involve any unitary stimuli. A class of representations more general than rank-dependent utility (RDU) is found in which monotonic functions of increments U(x)-U(y), where U is an order preseving representation of gambles, and joint receipt play a role. This form and its natural generalization to gambles with n > 2 consequences, which is also axiomatized, appear to encompass models of configural weights and decision affect. When joint receipts are not commutative, somewhat similar representations of stimuli arise, and joint receipts are shown to have a conjoint additive representation and in some cases a constant bias independent of signal intensity is predicted.     

A Process Approach to the Utility for Gambling

This paper argues that any specific utility or disutility for gambling must be excluded from expected utility because such a theory is consequential while a pleasure or displeasure for gambling is a matter of process, not of consequences. A (dis)utility for gambling is modeled as a process utility which monotonically combines with expected utility restricted to consequences. This allows for a process (dis)utility for gambling to be revealed. As an illustration, the model shows how empirical observations in the Allais paradox can reveal a process disutility of gambling. A more general model of rational behavior combining processes and consequences is then proposed and discussed.     

State Conducted Lotteries: History, Problems, and Promises

Lotteries have played an important role in American finance through much of this Nation's history. This paper begins with an account of the abuses that led to the prohibition of the privately run lottery during the nineteenth century. It then goes on to analyze the promise and performance of the state run lotteries that have been created during the last decade. The paper argues that the lotteries have failed to fulfill the promises of their proponents, either in raising revenue or in fighting organized crime, and that they constitute a regressive and inefficient form of taxation. It also argues that the promotion of gambling serves to tarnish the image of state government.     

Direct payments to Japanese farmers: Do they reduce rice income inequality? Lessons for other Asian countries

This study investigates the income-equalizing effect of direct payments on rice income inequality in Japan using the Gini decomposition and the concentration curve. The results indicate that the direct payments in Japan are highly concentrated but they nevertheless reduce rice income inequality. However, the equalizing effect of direct payments is less than that in other countries because the Japanese payments are linked to participation in an acreage reduction program and are not fully decoupled. To pursue greater income equality, policymakers should decouple the payments and introduce mechanisms to decrease or limit the amount of support to the largest beneficiaries.     

Expanding social health protection in Cambodia: An assessment of the current coverage potential and gaps,and social equity considerations

The Royal Government of Cambodia recently launched its National Social Protection Policy framework to strengthen and expand social security and assistance. To inform social health protection policy, we examine socio-economic survey data and administrative coverage data to assess the coverage potential of existing coverage mechanisms and current gaps; and compare equitable contribution rates. Over 53 per cent of the population currently has no social health protection coverage mechanism, and about 16 per cent of the population who do have access to a mechanism are not yet enrolled. Current expansion efforts focus on the formal employee scheme, primarily benefiting individuals from higher income households. In addition, recent coverage expansion to some informal workers leaves significant gaps, particularly among the informal sector. We find out-of-pocket health care expenditure to be an excessive share of income among lower wealth quintile individuals and conclude they are financially vulnerable. Finally, we illustrate that an equitable approach to individual, monthly health care contributions among the lower three quintiles has a severely limited potential for revenue generation, and collection costs could exceed the amount collected. Therefore, we recommend that vulnerable groups should be exempted from contribution payments as social health protection is expanded.     

Narrowing of Public Responsibility in Finland, 1990–2010

Public responsibility in Finland has narrowed in the last 20 years while the sphere of the private sector has been increased. The economic crisis of the early 1990s was not the cause, but an accelerator of public sector/welfare state retrenchment in Finland. Based on which, it was easy for the advocates of neo‐liberal reforms to argue that the changes were a must. The welfare state programmes however, are popular among the Finnish population and therefore large one‐time cutbacks have not been possible beyond the immediate aftermath of the economic crisis. This article looks into three different methods through which the Finnish welfare state has been gradually cut since then: (1) by not raising income transfers along with the rising cost of living and wages; (2) by reducing funding of public services; and, on the other side of the coin (3) through regular tax cuts contracting the revenue side. Welfare state retrenchment in Finland has therefore been achieved in a subtle fashion through slow gradual weakening of social programmes on one hand, and through cuts in revenue on the other that have left proportionally more in the hands of the wealthier. These combined movements have resulted in a drastic reversal in the trend in income inequality in Finland.     

Crowding Out or Welfare Promotion? How Foreign Aid Affects Social Expenditures in Latin American Welfare Systems

Foreign assistance constitutes a significant share of government revenue in many low‐ and middle‐income economies and is targeted at poverty reduction and the promotion of social and economic well‐being. This study therefore examines fiscal responses by Latin American welfare states to the inflow of such aid. As a form of external non‐tax revenue, aid can function as a substitution for public welfare expenditure, with a crowding out effect being the likely outcome. This article investigates whether overall aid and aid that is particularly targeted at the social sector substitutes public welfare provision and, if so, whether it also substitutes its function. A time‐series cross‐section analysis of 19 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2008 provides limited support for the assumption that foreign aid payments influence the welfare budget. It is only the health care sector in middle‐income countries which experiences a small decrease in expenditures. Social security and education expenditures are not affected.     

税收质量的界定、制度比较与借鉴

税收质量是指税收效率、税收公平及两者均衡的状态,主要体现在税收结构、税收分权体制以及税收征收管理机制三个方面上。不同经济发展水平国家的税收质量存在着较大差异性。税收质量要注重长远利益与现实利益的兼顾,在利益导向和控制导向基础上平衡各级政府的税权划分,不断强化以税收服务和监督保障为核心的税收征收管理运行机制。从短期看,我国税收质量仍旧要以税收效率作为主要目标,兼顾税收公平作用的发挥;随着生产力水平的不断提高,要逐步强化税收公平,以税收公平促进税收效率。     

A family income distribution model for regional (Massachusetts) policy analysis

An earned family income distribution model for Massachussets is described. This model could be estimated and used for other national or subnational regions for which the micro data required to generate earned family income distribution at working period rates are available. The model is distinguished by its explicit inclusion of male- and female-headed families without earnings and by its attention to employment structure, labor market conditions, and wage acceleration. There is presented a policy simulation that shows the effects on earned family income distribution of cutting the Massachusetts corporate profits tax and offsetting the lost revenue with a luxury goods sales tax.     

2012年江西省福利彩票彩民购彩行为特征调查报告

为了解江西省福彩彩民购彩行为特征及彩民群体成瘾倾向,本文采用横断面研究方法,使用自编福彩彩民购彩行为调查表和购彩成瘾自评问卷,在江西全省11个设区市400个福利彩票投注站随机收集4396名购彩者的资料,分析彩民一般人口统计学资料、彩民购彩行为特征、彩民对彩票机构的态度以及彩民成瘾倾向特点。结果显示,中年、已婚、受教育程度低和月收入低的男性更易购彩成瘾。购彩频率、购彩金额和每天花费时间均是购彩成瘾的重要表现,购彩成瘾倾向与彩龄无关。因此,江西省目前福利彩票行业发展健康,但彩票购买者中约2%有病态赌博倾向,需要引起高度重视。     

Institutional constraints on legislative lobbying: The case of Indian casino advocacy in New York

Prevailing theory holds that lobbyists primarily lobby their legislative allies, yet the literatures on advocacy and legislative organization suggest that we should not always expect this to be true. Institution design gives some legislators disproportionately greater power, and jurisdictional requirements often create a contentious environment forcing lobbyists to lobby their ideological opponents. Drawing on these literatures, I revise the basic lobbying model to predict conditions where we might expect to see advocates lobby their foes. I test my hypotheses with data on campaign contributions made in New York on the contentious issue of American Indian gambling casinos. I find that while advocates often lobbied their allies, they were more likely to contribute heavily to legislative leaders regardless of position, and often even contributed to rank-and-file opponents as the environment became more competitive. I also find some evidence that this was different for Indian nations, who may have employed a more naïve advocacy strategy than more traditional interest groups.