Reference groups and family size norms

The concept of reference groups is introduced as a theoretically useful mechanism involved in diffusing collective norms and values about family size and in formation of family size ideals of individual family members. Data were gathered via self-administered questionnaires from a random sample of 140 urban and 55 rural families in the Lansing, Michigan metropolitan area. Findings show major variations by sex. Conformity to a two-child family norm in the family size ideals of wives depends on the extent to which they are exposed to this norm through reference group interaction and on the size of their families of origin. Husbands' family size ideals are influenced by size of family of origin but not by reference group interaction. In further exploring this pattern of findings, important differences emerge by controlling for educational attainment and residential location.Revised version of a paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, Session "Population: Fertility Behavior," Chicago, September 5–9, 1977. This research was supported by the Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station, Project 3152, "Functioning of the Family Ecosystem in a World of Changing Energy Availability" through the Institute for Family and Child Study and the Department of Sociology. Acknowledgements are due to Shirley Foster Hartley, Nan E. Johnson, Harry Perlstadt, Harry K. Schwarzweller, and the referees of this journal, all of whom made helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Michigan State Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Article Number 8245. Requests for reprints should be sent to Daniel C. Clay, Department of Sociology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824.     

流动人口家庭化状况分析

家庭流动会在未来一个时期成为人口流动的主要形式,本文对流动人口家庭化的概念进行界定,利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心2009年的调查数据对流动人口家庭化程度和区域差异从实证的角度进行了验证。研究发现,流动人口家庭化存在区域差异,部分流动人口家庭是通过在流入地生育孩子组成。针对流动人口家庭化给流入地和流出地带来的机遇和挑战要客观地看待。     

流动人口带眷流动意愿研究

文章利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心于2009年在北京朝阳区、广东东莞市和浙江诸暨市组织进行的流动人口调查数据,分析流动人口带眷流动意愿。研究发现,流动人口最愿意带迁自己的配偶、父亲和子女;社会认同、长期居留意愿和年龄因素对于流动人口的带眷流动意愿有着较为显著的影响,其他因素如性别、担心父母的养老、受教育程度、住房来源和来流人地的时间等因素对于流动人口带迁不同家庭成员有显著影响。     

Migration intentions and behavior: Decision making in a rural Philippine province

The relationship between intentions and behavior is basic to micro-level migration decision research. This study, set in the rural Philippine province of Ilocos Norte, provides evidence on personal and structural background factors and value-expectancy perceptions of place utility that predict migration intentions and behavior. Separate analyses are conducted for general intentions to move and for destination-specific migration intentions, the latter pertaining to both internal migration (Manila) and international migration (Hawaii). Logistic regression analyses applied to the data from a 1980–82 longitudinal survey show that the empirical models are highly efficient in explaining migration intentions but less efficient in explaining actual migration behavior in this Third World setting. Important explanatory variables for both intentions and behavior include family pressure to move or stay, family auspices at alternative destinations, money to move, prior migration experience, and the life cycle stage (marital status and age). However, the determinants of internal and international migration behavior are not the same. The data only partially support the Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) position that intentions are the dominant determinant of behavior. Personal and structural background factors are shown to exert independent direct effects on migration behavior.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. Research for this paper was supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, The Philippines, the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA. The other coinvestigators for this project are Fred Arnold, East-West Population Institute, and Benjamin V. Carino, University of the Philippines.     

中国流动人口梯次流动的实证研究

利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心2009年在北京朝阳区、广东东莞市和浙江诸暨市组织进行的流动人口调查数据,对中国流动人口梯次流动进行实证研究。研究发现,流动人口的地理梯次流动、职业梯次流动和家庭梯次流动均不同程度地存在,地理梯次流动受到个人特征、流动经历和父辈的"探路者"效应的影响,职业梯次流动受到流动经历、职业稳定性以及与流入地居民来往状况的影响,家庭梯次流动受到家庭成员特征、耕地面积、流动经历、流入地亲人数量的影响。     

Family building: A social psychological study of fertility decisions

Decision theory, coupled with a hierarchically arranged questionnaire format, is discussed as a possible approach to the prediction of birth planning decisions. The empirical success of the scheme is examined in terms of interrelating attitudes, behavioral intention, desired family size, and birth planning behavior.This project was supported by Research Grant HD-07225-01A1 from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Center for Population Research, by NICHD Center Grant HD-09397-01 to the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, and by the University of Washington Graduate School Research Projects Fund, from the Public Health Service Biomedical Research Support Grants, Grant #RR07096. The authors thank Dr. Barbara H. Beach for her help with the data analyses. Requests for reprints should be sent to Brenda D. Townes, Ph.D., Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195.     

成年子女外出状况及对农村家庭代际关系的影响

在我国大规模农村青壮年劳动力从乡到城转移的背景下,根据中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心2008年在河南、贵州部分农村进行的调查数据,从居住方式、代际互动、生活满意度几个方面对成年子女外出给农村家庭代际关系带来的影响进行分析。虽然农村留守老人在居住方式上出现了独居化、空巢化和隔代化的趋势,且在与外出子女间的代际资源交换中并未明显获益,但通过子女外出前后留守老人生活满意度的对比,发现留守老人的生活满意度显著提高。农村劳动力外出符合家庭利益最大化原则,同时提出相关政策建议。     

Residential mobility orientations of children and youth

This article addresses itself to issues in the socialization of young people to residential mobility orientations. Our conceptual framework emphasizes the importance of social context and active experience in the development of these orientations. Data from samples of youth from sixth to twelfth grades show them to have reasonable, if slightly conservative, mobility expectations. Other findings in the paper are consistent with the importance of social location and interpersonal relationships in youth socialization.The research on which this paper was based was supported by National Science Foundation Grant GS-39779. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 1974. Reuqests for reprints should be directed to Dr. Nam, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306.     

An Empirical Study on the Laddering Migration of China’s Floating Population

Using data collected by Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China in 2009 in Chaoyang district of Beijing, Dongguan city of Guangdong province and Zhuji city of Zhejiang province, this paper does an empirical study on the laddering migration of China’s floating population. The findings indicate that floating population’s geographical laddering migration, occupational laddering migration and family laddering migration exist in the process of migration. Geographical laddering migration is influenced by demographic characteristics, migration experience and pathfinder effect of parents. Occupational laddering migration is influenced by migration experience, stability of occupation and social interaction with local residents in destination. Family laddering migration is influenced by family member’s characteristics, area of arable land, migration experience and the number of relatives in destination.     

The best-laid schemes: An analysis of discrepancies between migration intentions and behavior

A longitudinal survey approach is used in a largely rural area in the Philippines to examine consistency between migration intentions and subsequent migration behavior. Inconsistencies in movement behavior, the timing of a move, and the destination are analyzed. Discrepancies between intentions and behavior are explained in terms of unanticipated constraints and facilitators as well as changes in the conditions that precipitated the migration intention in the first place. Intended international movers who did not actually move in a 2-1/2 year period were thwarted mainly by legal hurdles that could not be overcome. Intended internal migrants who did not actually move remained in their origin area primarily because of changes in job opportunities or family relationships. Methodological and theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men Gang aft agley, An' la'e us nought but grief an' pain, For promis'd joy! we must bear in mind the distinction between direct and facilitating factors involved in migration processes . migration analysis should consider some factors that facilitate or impede migration rather than determine migration directly (Goldscheider, 1971:38).This article was originally presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of American in Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. The authors wish to thank Lynna Sycip for her assistance in the preparation of the tabulations for this article. In addition to the authors, the co-investigators for this project are James T. Fawcett, East-West Population Institute and Ricardo G. Abad, Institute of Philippine Culture, Ateneo de Manila University. Research for this article has been supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, Manila, Philippines, and the East-West Population Institute.     

第五届数字中国发展高层论坛暨信息主管峰会“数字健康论坛”在京举行

2008年12月7—8日,由北京大学数字中国研究院和中国人口与发展研究中心主办、中国标准化研究院人口与健康信息技术研究中心和中国仪器仪表学会医疗仪器分会电子健康专业委员会协办的“数字健康论坛”在北京大学举行。此次论坛是北京大学和国际数字地球学会联合主办的“第五届数字中国发展高层论坛暨信息主管峰会”的分论坛,主题为电子信息与空间技术在人口与健康领域的应用。     

The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility

This paper examines the impact of parental economic status and family size on the actual and expected fertility of adult children using longitudinal data from two generations of families participating in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. There was a modest positive relationship between first generation family size and second generation fertility. More importantly, the ideal family size of the parental family was more closely related to fertility behavior and plans in the second generation than was actual parental family size. In addition, the data revealed the hypothesized negative correlation between parental financial status and second generation fertility behavior and plans. Several mechanisms which could produce the correlation between parental characteristics and the fertility of their children are explored.The analysis reported in this paper was supported by Contract NO1-HD-42856 from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research. Dr. Thornton is affiliated with the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Requests for reprints should be directed to him.     

Do husbands and wives agree? Fertility attitudes and later behavior

Analysis of the extent to which husbands and wives agree in their attitudes toward a number of key issues that may affect fertility behavior shows that although aggregate views of men and women are remarkably similar, marital couples are frequently in disagreement, particularly if measures discounting for chance agreement of responses are employed. In other words, we cannot accept either the husband or the wife as a surrogate respondent. These conclusions are based on data from cross-sectional surveys in a developing society, Taiwan, of 2000 couples in which the wife was of childbearing age. The impact on fertility of such marital disagreement varies with the attitude in question. Followup birth data over a four-year period indicate that, when there is disagreement, it is the wife's attitude that has more influence on fertility, particularly if she has the stronger belief about the future security and status to be derived from a large family and from sons.The data for this paper were collected by the Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning under the direction of T.S. Sun, in collaboration with the University of Michigan Population Studies Center and with the financial assistance of the Population Council. Grants from the Center for Population Research of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the Ford Foundation provided support for the analysis. We wish to acknowledge the assistance of James B. Rogers in the computer work and of Ronald Freedman in comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Effect of census errors on the measurement of net migration

This paper traces the history of the use of vital statistics, survival rates, and ratios in the estimation of net migration from one decade to another. Net migration studies by Hart (1921); Baker (1933) ; Hamilton (1934); Thornthwaite (1934); Lively and Taeuber (1939) ; Henderson (1943); Hamilton and Henderson (1943); Hamilton (1951); Siegel and Hamilton (1952); Lee and Bowles (1954); Price (1955); Lee, Miller, and others (1957); Hamilton (1959); Zachariah (1962); Tarver (1962); Shryock (1964); Eldridge (1965); Hamilton (1965); and the United States Census Bureau are cited as the principal users of various residual methods of estimating net migration. All these demographers have either implicitly or explicitly recognized that errors in census enumeration and in the registration of births and deaths have been reflected in errors of estimated net migration.The underlying characteristic of all the methods used by these demographers has been the estimation of net migration as a residual obtained by subtracting natural increase in an area during a decade from the population change during the same decade. This method has been most generally stated in the classic formula {fx394-1} This formula has been used both with total populations and with aging cohorts. The principal variations of the basic formula have involved the use of life table and census survival ratios as a means of measuring natural increase (B - D), or of estimating "expected" populations assuming no migration. The main points of controversy have involved life table v. censm survival ratios, assumptions regarding the similarity in national and state census enumeration errors, and ways and means of estimating the errors involved in estimates of migration and of migration rates by the various methods.Daniel O. Price (1955) and Zachariah (1962) made important mathematical contributions and attempted to evaluate the errors involved in the me of census survival rates. Eldridge (1965) discovered that, in the United States between 1950 and 1960, the use of the census survival rate method usually gave much lower estimates of net migration than did the classic vital statistic method. Hamilton (1965), using some suggestions by Hope T. Eldridge, developed a mathematical theory or explanation of not only why the CSR estimates were usually lower than the VS estimates but also why the CSR estimates would usually give closer estimates on the true net migration than would the EVS method, which itself is subject to errors of census enumeration and of underregistration of births and deaths. The author also discusses the effect of improvement in census enumeration between 1950 and 1960 on estimates of net migration and derives a generalized formula which takes the timing of migration into consideration.The author acknowledges with sincere appreciation important constructive suggestions made by Dr. Hope T. Eldridge, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, and the authors of the many papers used as original material. This paper is a revision of a paper read before the annual meeting ot the Population Association of America, Hotel Roosevelt, New York, New York, April 29-30, 1966. Contribution from the Departments of Sociology and Experimental Statistics, North Carolina Agricultural Experiment Station, North Carolina State University. Published with the approval of the Director of Research as Paper No. 2227 of the Journal series.     

CBR versus TFR in cross-national fertility research

Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 Abstract-This paper addresses the question of whether the crude birth rate (CBR) can be used as a proxy for more refined fertility measures in cross-national models of fertility determinants. It responds to a recent claim that the CBR represents an inappropriate fertility measure for these purposes. In the analysis, several strategies are used to assess the degree to which results based on the CBR are sensitive to lack of adjustment for age structure. The paper concludes that using the CBR as a proxy has minor and unimportant effects upon conclusions regarding fertility determinants.     

加强人口与性别研究 推进小康社会建设

本文根据彭佩云同志在由中国人民大学妇女研究中心和全国妇联妇女研究所于2009年11月28日在中国人民大学举办的人口性别发展学术论坛上的发言形成。强调了人口与性别问题在发展中的重要地位、产生根源的复杂性、以及社会后果的滞后性,希望加强各学科的密切合作,发扬学术民主,深化人口与性别问题的研究。     

Community satisfaction,expectations of moving,and migration

A previous residential mobility model (Speare, 1974) assumes an additive relationship between residential satisfaction, desire to move, and mobility. This paper elaborates the model and applies it to intercounty migration. An interaction between community satisfaction and expectations to migrate is hypothesized which distinguishes four groups of decision makers. A survey in Durham, North Carolina and a unique mobility followup over eight years provide the data to test the model and the interaction. Furthermore, using various time periods for identifying migrants offers some methodological insights. Results support Speare’s general formulation but only after the interaction is taken into account. A three-year migration interval is found to be appropriate.     

Residential preferences,community satisfaction,and the intention to move

This paper explores the role of size of place residential preference in the evolution of the intention to move out of the present community using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey. People who prefer to live in a community having different size or location characteristics than their present residence are five times more likely to intend to move than those who have attained their preferred type of residence. Within these two groups, however, the particular configuration of current and preferred residence has no significant effect on the likelihood of intending to move. This finding justifies the creation of a simple dichotomous variable, preference status, contrasting these two groups. Community satisfaction and preference status are highly interrelated and each has an independent effect on intentions to move. Moreover, the effect of preference status on mobility intentions is somewhat larger than that for community satisfaction, indicating that residential preference plays a significant role in the decision-making process regarding migration.     

Incorporating husband-wife differences in place utility differentials into migration decision models

This paper extends the micro-level empirical literature on migration decision making by investigating the manner in which husbands' and wives' subjective place utility expectations jointly feed into migration decisions in a low-income country. The authors use expectational data relating to four place utility dimensions and stated migration intentions of 376 village-resident Egyptian couples to test alternative decision models. An ordinal probit estimation technique is employed. The results of the analyses support the hypothesis of husband dominance in migration decisions in this context. The authors conclude with a discussion of the implications of the paper for further theoretical refinement and for migration survey design in this and other developing countries.Dr. McDevitt is a Research Associate of the Carolina Population Center, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Dr. Gadalla, former Director of The Social Research Center of The American University in Cairo, is currently Visiting Distinguished Professor of Sociology-Demography, San Diego State University, San Diego.This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1984 annual meetings of the Population Association of America and cited throughout as McDevitt and Gadalla (1984). The authors wish to acknowledge helpful discussions with Amos Hawley in the early stages of the development of the paper and the guidance of David Guilkey and Larry Taylor with the statistical techniques employed in the work reported in the paper. The research was supported in part by grants 1-R01-HD14943 and 1-T32-HD07168 from the National Institutes of Health.     

家庭老年照料经济价值及其影响因素——基于意愿调查法的研究

基于2019年中国人口与发展研究中心与南开大学老龄健康与民生保障研究基地在全国四个省市组织的“家庭老年照料经济价值问卷调查”数据,采用意愿调查方法(CVM)评估家庭老年照料的经济价值,并检验收入水平和健康状况对家庭老年照料经济价值的影响。研究发现对于家庭老年照料,受访者支付意愿(WTP)的平均金额为每小时31.73元,接受政府补贴意愿(WTA)的平均金额为每小时41.98元。收入水平和健康状况仅对支付意愿的金额产生显著影响,并不影响接受补贴的意愿。此外,相较于对照组,年龄较大、患有慢性病、无配偶、初中学历、不住自己房子的受访者不愿意为家庭老年照料付费也不愿意接受补贴的概率更大。本文的研究结论将为政府出台家庭老年照料的支持政策提供决策参考。