The Role of Ethnicity in Father Absence and Children’s School Enrollment in Guatemala

Despite the historical prevalence of single motherhood in Latin America and its rise in recent years, there is limited knowledge on the magnitude and consequences of father absence as experienced by children. Using a nationally representative sample from the 2002 Guatemalan Reproductive Health Survey, this study provides unprecedented documentation on the national prevalence of children’s separate living arrangements from their biological fathers and nonresident fathers’ paternity establishment and child support payments. Using random-intercept models, this study further demonstrates that father absence has a negative effect on the school enrollment of indigenous children of both sexes and Ladino male children. Increased poverty in father-absent households explains a smaller proportion of this adverse effect on indigenous children, suggesting that their fathers, when present, play a stronger social, rather than economic, role compared to their Ladino counterparts. Finally, child support payments attenuate the negative effects of father absence, particularly among Ladino male children.     

Comparison of Census 2000 and American Community Survey 1999–2001 Estimates: San Francisco and Tulare Counties, California

Data from the United States 2000 decennial census long form sample is compared to the U.S. Census Bureau’s fledgling American Community Survey (ACS) that was designed to replace the census long form in 2010. This article concentrates on two California counties, San Francisco and Tulare, which were part of the demonstration phase of the ACS. These counties are described and an overall comparison of the demographic, social, economic, and housing variables is presented. The project data and measures of census and survey quality such as self-response rates and nonresponse rates are displayed and discussed. Differences in the census and survey results are noted in the context of statistically significant and meaningful differences. Finally, strategies for analyzing and using ACS data are suggested.     

Comparing the U.S. Decennial Census Coverage Estimates for Children from Demographic Analysis and Coverage Measurement Surveys

Following every U.S. decennial census since 1960, the U.S. Census Bureau has evaluated the completeness of coverage using two different methods. Demographic analysis (DA) compares the census counts to a set of independent population estimates to infer coverage differences by age, sex, and race. The survey-based approach (also called dual system estimation or DSE) provides coverage estimates based on matching data from a post-enumeration survey to census records. This paper reviews the fundamentals of the two methodological approaches and then initially examines the results of these two methods for the 2010 decennial census in terms of consistency and inconsistency for age groups. The authors find that the two methods produce relatively consistent results for all age groups, except for young children. Consequently, the paper focuses on the results for children. Results of the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses are shown for the overall population in this age group and by demographic detail (age, race, and Hispanic origin). Among children, the DA and DSE results are most inconsistent for the population aged 0–4 and most consistent for ages 10–17. Results also show that DA and DSE are more consistent for Black than non-Black populations. The authors discuss possible explanations for the differences in the two methods for young children and conclude that the DSE approach may underestimate the net undercount of young children due to correlation bias.     

事后调查的理论和它在人口普查修正中的应用

人口普查不可避免地存在误差,如遗漏、重复。为发挥普查的作用,对其结果修正是必要的。一般采用事后调查法修正。事后调查在人口普查结束后进行,主要目的是为修正提供基础数据。普查局利用这些数据,使用捕获再捕获模型,修正人口普查数。     

Follow-up surveys for census estimates of maternal mortality: experiences from Bolivia and Mozambique

Maternal mortality measurement through special census questions will be a common practice in the 2010 census round. To check this information or make it cause-specific, some countries have experimented with follow-up surveys containing verbal autopsies or triangulation with administrative data. However, follow-up studies can be costly and not without complications. In order to assess the benefits, two such experiences are discussed in detail (Bolivia, 2002; and Mozambique 2007–2008) and two others mentioned more briefly (Islamic Republic of Iran, 1996; and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, 2008). In the former, several problems were apparent. In Mozambique, the follow-up survey used a cluster sample of 4.5% of deaths, from all causes. This design was adequate for the more common causes, but not for maternal mortality. Another problem was the large proportion of invalid cases (35.1%, plus 16% not verifiable) and the likelihood that there was a similar proportion of omitted deaths. The Bolivian census generated many invalid cases and missing ages, due in part to the flawed design of the questionnaire. This overburdened the follow-up, so that only 15% of the census deaths of women of reproductive age unrelated to pregnancy could be investigated. Once the false positives were eliminated, the results seem consistent with Growth Balance analyses, but the many classification errors compromise confidence in the results. Despite this mixed record of outcomes, it is believed that carrying out a limited number of similar studies in the current census round may be valuable, if appropriate lessons are learned from these experiences.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF GENERALIZED RAKINGIN THE SYNTHETIC ESTIMATION OFPOPULATION SIZE

The problem of counting a population that is cross-classified with respect to demographic and geographic attributes is considered. A census is conducted in which individuals are “captured” with probabilities that are believed to be relatively constant within demographic categories. The census is followed by a random sample in which individuals are “recaptured” independently of the census. Using the two counts, capture-recapture estimates of the demographic category populations are obtained. A synthetic estimate of population size for a geographic entity is obtained by summing the corresponding adjustment factors (capture-recapture estimates divided by census counts) across all individuals captured by the census in the entity. The use of generalized raking is considered as a method for smoothing adjustment factors. It is found that generalized raking differs little from a class of weighted least squares regression models. This suggests that generalized raking does not offer an improvement over regression for smoothing adjustment factors. The efficiency loss of generalized raking relative to the best regression-based procedures can be substantial.     

The function and significance of coding in the population census]

The importance and practicality of a nationally standardized census code for China's population are outlined in this paper. Due to the diversity and size of China's population, the tremendous cost of conducting a national census depends to a large extent on the development of an efficient, simple, comprehensive, and easily completed census form. Codifying information is regarded as a means for greatly simplifying computerized data processing of census forms, although past problems with misinterpretation of instructions by census takers in various parts of the country have caused massive backlogs, errors, and duplication of effort. A key problem discussed is the matter of converting Chinese characters (from census forms) into a computerized format for data processing. It is proposed that a nationally standardized code for reducing economic and technical information be established in order to streamline both national and local surveys.     

The main contents and characteristics of the third national population census]

The Chinese State Council publicized rules and regulations for the 3rd national population census on February 19, 1982. In 28 chapters, this document outlined the leadership organization, target of the census, time and space of the census, performance evaluation, and the transaction and publication of the data collected. 1 special feature of this census is the connection between the need for current modernized construction and possible conditions available. Altogether there are 19 items in this census, while the last census had only 9 items. Among the newly added items are: 1) those concerning economic characteristics, 2) those on population growth, and 3) those on the household condition of the constant population. Another special feature of the 3rd national population census is the combination of China's own working experience in population and that of foreign countries. In the skills of modernized calculation, new experience from foreign countries has been fully utilized. The scientific method has been used to design the census form, a sample examination, the coding of collected data, and data registration through the use of computers. The 3rd national population census has been successful for 3 main reasons: 1) extensive support from the general public, 2) strict organization and hard work, and 3) modernized computers used in calculation.     

Estimation of demographic measures for India, 1881-1961, based on census age distributions

Abstract India is one of the very few developing countries which have a relatively long history of population censuses. The first census was taken in 1872, the second in 1881 and since then there has been a census every ten years, the latest in 1971. Yet the registration of births and deaths in India, even at the present time, is too inadequate to be of much help in estimating fertility and mortality conditions in the country. From time to time Indian census actuaries have indirectly constructed life tables by comparing one census age distribution with the preceding one. Official life tables are available for all the decades from 1872-1881 to 1951-1961, except for 1911-1921 and 1931-1941. Kingsley Davis(1) filled in the gap by constructing life tables for the latter two decades. He also estimated the birth and death rates ofIndia for the decades from 1881-1891 to 1931-1941. Estimates of these rates for the following two decades, 1941-1951 and 1951-1961, were made by Indian census actuaries. The birth rates of Davis and the Indian actuaries were obtained basically by the reverse survival method from the age distribution and the computed life table of the population. Coale and Hoover(2), however, estimated the birth and death rates and the life table of the Indian population in 1951 by applying stable population theory. The most recent estimates of the birth rate and death rate for 1963-1964 are based on the results of the National Sample Survey. All these estimates are presented in summary form in Table 1.     

Two hundred years and counting: the 1990 census

On April 1, 1990, the US will take a national census, marking 200 years of census taking in America. A national census has been taken every 10 years in the US since 1790. Mandated by the US Constitution, the decennial census is the basis for reapportionment of the House of Representatives. California, Texas, and Florida are expected to gain the most Congressional seats following the 1990 Census, reflecting above-average population growth in these states. The census also provides important information about the characteristics of the American people, and a growing number of federal, state and local government programs, private corporations, and community agencies use census data. Each census provides a portrait of America, and over the decades these portraits have revealed much about how our country has changed as we have grown from a young agrarian nation of about 4 million people clustered along the Eastern seaboard to a complex post-industrial society of nearly 250 million spread across the continent and beyond. Techniques for taking the census have steadily improved over the past 2 centuries. The 1990 Census will rely heavily on computerization in all its aspects, including field operations, processing, geography, data tabulations, and products. It is likely to be the most accurate census in our history. The 1990 Census is already the subject of a lawsuit, however, charging that minority groups will be counted less completely than the white population. A series of similar lawsuits followed the 1980 Census, but all were unsuccessful. This Bulletin discusses the Census Bureau's plans for taking the 1990 Census, looks back on 200 years of census taking in America, and details such key aspects of the 1990 Census as the questionnaire, census geography and data dissemination plans, census undercount and the homeless.     

The strange history and problematic future of the Australian census

When looking back into the first century of Australian history following white settlement we often rely on the records of musters, listings and censuses to provide information on individuals and communities. The first census of New South Wales in 1828 was little more than a directory of names of settlers and settlements, but both professional historians and genealogists regard it as invaluable. As the scientific principles of censuses were developed over the course of the nineteenth century the information collected became ever more important for social scientists and economists. In the twentieth century, professional historians in the UK and USA opened wholly new perspectives on society by looking to the census for records of common families who were not recorded in the newspapers or diaries of the time, and the community structures in which they lived. Unfortunately such innovations have not been possible in Australia. The individual records of most colonial and all Commonwealth censuses are not to be found in the libraries or archives. The destruction of original census records in Australia has been the result of misadventure and government policies reflecting great fear about the impact of popular privacy concerns on public compliance with the census operations. This paper explores the history behind the anomalous practice of destroying census records in Australia, and poses questions about the role of the census in the writing of histories of Australian people and Australian communities.     

我国省际人口迁移及其对区域经济发展的影响分析——“五普”和“六普”的比较

改革开放后,我国放开了对人口迁移流动的管制,跨省区的人口迁移逐渐活跃起来,人口迁移对经济的影响作用也开始凸显。因此,国家越来越重视迁移人口的问题。在第五次人口普查中,流动人口首次成为主要普查的项目。目前,第六次人口普查的数据也已经公布。为此,本文以两次人口普查数据为依据,首先分析了我国目前迁移人口特征的变化,确定了新的人口迁移中心;此外,通过灰色关联度分析,证明迁入人口数和就业人数与经济总量之间存在较强的相关关系。     

The world's biggest census

The purpose of the 3rd national population census, taken 18 years after "New China's" 2nd census, was to ascertain accurate population figures for China and the spatial population distribution in order to carry out socialist modernization, improve the people's material and cultural lives, and draw up a population policy and program in light of China's actual conditions. The census questionnaire contained 19 items, including 13 for individuals; and 6 items about the household. Preparations for the census began at the end of 1979 even though the census would not begin until July 1, 1982. The preparatory stage included: drafting the Census Statute; conducting pilot censuses in certain areas; rectifying household registration; installing computers; training computer technicians; convening national census work conference and similar conferences at various levels; selecting and training field census workers; printing census forms; and conducting widespread publicity. Pilot censuses were conducted at central, provincial, and county levels in order to draw useful experience for the nationwide census. A large number of census workers were selected and trained. Among them were about a million staff members working in census offices at various levels, 1000 computer technical personnel, 4000 data entry personnel, 100,000 coders, and 1 million census supervisors. 8 million cadres and volunteers at the grassroots actively helped conduct the census. Enumeration and verification was completed between July 1 and July 15, 1982. The postenumeration check on a sample basis showed only a net overcount of 0.15/1000 with an overcount of 0.71/1000 and an undercount of 0.56/1000. All levels of the government, the Communist Party, Trade Unions, and Women's Federations were mobilized to take part in the census, and all mass media were utilized. All census information will be finally tabulated by computers before the end of 1984, and census reports will be compiled and submitted to the State Council for examination before they are published.     

A census of one billion people (summary)]

The national census which was conducted in 1982 has provided reliable population data for formulating policies and plans in China's modernization process. A great deal of experience has been acquired from this census. (1) The census was based upon China's practical situation and a unique system of methods suitable to China's situation was used. (2) Census workers have found appropriate methods through practical experience and also learned the skill of using computers in handling census data. (3) The general public was very cooperative and worked closely with the leadership and professional cadres. (4) Measures were taken to ensure the quantity and quality of the census work so that the goal of promoting the data's quantity and quality could be reached. (5) The spirit of patriotism was developed, and the people realized that the national census is a necessary measure to be taken for China's construction and modernization. The work of the 1982 national census was successful. The unfinished work which lies ahead is still very heavy. The census should keep on learning from the successful experience of foreign countries and try to overcome difficulties so that the work on China's population statistics may be pushed forward.     

Wuxi's pilot population census has laid the foundation for carrying out the Third National Population Census]

In order to lay the foundation for the third national population census, a pilot population census was conducted in Wuxi city, Jiangsu Province in 1980. One goal of this pilot population census was to examine and revise the rules and regulations for the population census. The second goal was to collect practical experience in a population census at a local level, and the third goal was to train a group of working personnel for the national population census. Results from this local population census include information on characteristics of the population, households, and society in general, cultural and educational levels, the economic situation for the local population, marital status, child-bearing status, and the natural mobility of the population. Both the quality and quantity of this pilot population census are excellent. Success is due to an effective and healthy leadership, detailed and well-designed rules and regulations and working principles, support and cooperation from the general public, well-trained working personnel, and suitable use of modern scientific methods for the census.     

Evaluation of statistical precision and design of efficient sampling for the population estimation based on frequency of occurrence

Summary The binomial sampling to estimate population density of an organism based simply upon the frequency of its occurrence among sampled quadrats is a labour-saving technique which is potentially useful for small animals like insects and has actually been applied occasionally to studies of their populations. The present study provides a theoretical basis for this convenient technique, which makes it statistically reliable and tolerable for consistent use in intensive as well as preliminary population censuses. Firs, the magnitude of sampling error in relation to sample size is formulated mathematically for the estimate to be obtained by this indirect method of census, using either of the two popular models relating frequency of occurrence (p) to mean density (m), i.e. the negative binomial model,p=1−(1+m/k) ^−k, and the empirical model,p=1−exp(−am ^b). Then, the equations to calculate sample size and census cost that are necessary to attain a given desired level of precision in the estimation are derived for both models. A notable feature of the relationship of necessary sample size (or census cost) to mean density in the frequency method, in constrast to that in the ordinary census, is that it shows a concave curve which tends to rise sharply not only towards lower but also towards higher levels of density. These theoretical results make it also possible to design sequential estimation procedures based on this convenient census technique, which may enable us with the least necessary cost to get a series of population estimates with the desired precision level. Examples are presented to explain how to apply these programs to acutal censuses in the field.     

Our experience with population censuses in 1953 and 1964]

We have accumulated some valuable experience through 2 successful population censuses in 1953 and 1964. A series of special census committees were established at each administrative level--from central government to local areas. Periodic 2-way telephone communication between higher and lower offices was planned. The census was conducted on the basis of permanent population in 1953 and 1964. A standard time of June 30, midnight was used in both cases. Census items must be clear, easy to use, and standardized. Name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, race, and present address were listed in 1954. Birth date, class, educational level, and occupation were added in 1964. For accurate data census districts and their boundaries must be clearly marked. Registering the whole family by head of household at the nearby temporary census station was found to be convenient, efficient, and accurate. Door-to-door visits by census clerks were also used. To complete such a cumbersome task in a short period of time high-quality census personnel were trained to fully understand the significance, the regulations, and the technical details of the task. Nationwide education and propaganda about the census were important for success. 3 levels of reporting (county, province, and central) in 1953 and 4 levels in 1964 were used to check results and correct mistakes. The announcement of the results to the public after the entire census was completed provided an opportunity for the public to confirm the data and correct mistakes. This process of confirmation is an essential quality control step.     

Examination of the generalized age distribution

The formula for the age distribution and other relationships that follow from it for any (non-stable) population presented by Preston and Coale are significant contributions to demography. The formulas summarize the relationships among various demographic measures precisely, and are formally analogous to the relationships that hold for stable populations. The significance of these formulas cannot be overstated; they allow us to understand clearly the relationships among demographic measures in any arbitrary population. However, when it comes to using them for estimating demographic measures when census data are defective, the method of estimation is still affected by defective data. The reason is that the series of age-specific growth rates reflects the observed census age distributions exactly so that any defects in the census data are summarized in the growth rates. This paper begins with the formulation of the discrete version of the "new synthesis" developed by Preston and Coale. With the discrete formulation, the three kinds of errors introduced when the continuous time formulas are applied to real data can be avoided. Then it is pointed out that when two accurate census data are available, the Preston-Coale procedure of "estimating" the age distribution at the second census is equivalent to checking the identity of the age distribution formula. Also "estimating" mortality by the procedure of Preston-Coale is shown to be equivalent to obtaining mortality directly from intercensal survival rates. That the procedure which involves the age-specific growth rates is equivalent to those that involve the intercensal survival rates may have escaped notice because there are no a priori constraints for patterns of age-specific growth rates to follow. The irregularity in growth rates due to defective data are not distinguishable from true irregularity that exists in the population, contrary to the well-known regularity in the pattern of survival rates in human populations.     

Annual fertility rates from census data on own children: Comparisons with vital statistics data for the United States

This paper begins by describing the procedure and data requirements for calculating annual fertility rates from census data on own children. Then, using data from the United States Censuses of 1960 and 1970, fully adjusted estimates are presented and compared with recorded vital statistics rates. Total fertility estimates derived from own children data for whites average less than two percent lower than the recorded rates- a difference that can be attributed partially to the fact that the estimates are adjusted for net census undercount but the recorded rates are not. Even without adjustments for mortality, children not living with their mothers, and net census undercount, the own children data estimates accurately replicate recorded trends (even though the levels are misspecified). The utility of own children data for the study of differential fertility is discussed.     

Population undercount and social science research

The undercount problem in the decennial census has important implication for social science research based directly or indirectly on census data. Because undercount rates (or coverage rates) vary by age, race, residence, and other factors typically studied in social research, important conceptual difficulties arise in using census results to corroborate sampling frames or to validate survey results. Differential undercount, particularly for analyses based on small areas, could produce substantial variability in prevalence rates in cases where the denominators for those rates are derived from the census. Several examples where the undercount problem arises in social science research, including survey research, are considered. The adjustment problem—whether to adjust, how to adjust, and how much to adjust—is also considered from the point of view of social sicence research.