Decision Making in `Random in a Broad Sense' Environments

It is shown that the uncertainty connected with a `random in a broad sense' (not necessarily stochastic) event always has some `statistical regularity' (SR) in the form of a family of finite-additive probability distributions. The specific principle of guaranteed result in decision making is introduced. It is shown that observing this principle of guaranteed result leads to determine the one optimality criterion corresponding to a decision system with a given `statistical regularity'.     

Dominance and Efficiency in Multicriteria Decision under Uncertainty

This paper proposes several concepts of efficient solutions for multicriteria decision problems under uncertainty. We show how alternative notions of efficiency may be grounded on different decision contexts, depending on what is known about the Decision Maker's (DM) preference structure and probabilistic anticipations. We define efficient sets arising naturally from polar decision contexts. We investigate these sets from the points of view of their relative inclusions and point out some particular subsets which may be especially relevant to some decision situations.     

Backward Induction Is Not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem

A cornerstone of game theory is backward induction, whereby players reason backward from the end of a game in extensive form to the beginning in order to determine what choices are rational at each stage of play. Truels, or three-person duels, are used to illustrate how the outcome can depend on (1) the evenness/oddness of the number of rounds (the parity problem) and (2) uncertainty about the endpoint of the game (the uncertainty problem). Since there is no known endpoint in the latter case, an extension of the idea of backward induction is used to determine the possible outcomes. The parity problem highlights the lack of robustness of backward induction, but it poses no conflict between foundational principles. On the other hand, two conflicting views of the future underlie the uncertainty problem, depending on whether the number of rounds is bounded (the players invariably shoot from the start) or unbounded (they may all cooperate and never shoot, despite the fact that the truel will end with certainty and therefore be effectively bounded). Some real-life examples, in which destructive behavior sometimes occurred and sometimes did not, are used to illustrate these differences, and some ethical implications of the analysis are discussed.     

A Choice Experiment Approach to the Valuation of Mortality

This paper presents an integrated framework for evaluating the reduction of several types of mortality risk using a Choice Experiment (CE) approach, a type of stated preference technique. Using this approach, we can distinguish the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for the amount of risk reduction from the MWTP for the opportunity of risk reduction and therefore calculate the “Quantity-based” Value of a Statistical Life. The risks in our survey include mortality risks due to accident, cancer, and heart disease. The Quantity-based VSL is calculated to be 350 million JPY (in 2002 Japanese Yen, about 2.9 million US dollars). Furthermore, we analyzed the influence of subjective risk perception and population characteristics of the respondents on their MWTP. Estimated results suggest that it is unnecessary to adjust the VSL according to the differences in the type of risk if the VSL is calculated using an adequate approach. However, adjustments for the timing of risk reduction and population characteristics are found to be significant for the execution of benefit transfer.JEL Classification: I18, D81, J17     

Experiment-dependent priors in psychology and physics

Sometimes conducting an experiment to ascertain the state of a system changes the state of the system being measured. Kahneman & Tversky modelled this effect with support theory. Quantum physics models this effect with probability amplitude mechanics. As this paper shows, probability amplitude mechanics is similar to support theory. Additionally, Viscusi's proposed generalized expected utility model has an analogy in quantum mechanics.     

生物类专业普通生物学实验教学改革探讨

该文从实验教材、实验项目内容、教学方式以及考核方法等环节对福建技术师范学院生物类专业的普通生物学实验课程进行教学改革.对改革前普通生物学实验存在的问题进行深入剖析,同时对普通生物学实验改革后的效果与改革前进行对比分析.对提高本校学生学习该门实验课的积极性和主动性、提高该门实验课的教学质量也有一定意义.     

大庆市全面实现小康社会的对策研究

黑龙江省大庆市全面小康指标体系是从经济、社会、科教、安全保障、资源环境五个方面构建的,并且运用指数变换法对其实现程度进行了测定。根据测定结果,认为大庆市实现全面小康要注意各方面的协调发展;要大力发展教育,提高人口素质;要把建设生态城市与开发旅游资源紧密结合起来;要转变经济增长方式,建立资源节约型经济体系;要积极开发就业岗位,完善社会保障体系。     

民国西安经济转型的动力与结构分析

民国以降，西安经济发展的水平和结构受到制度和抗战沦陷区经济大转移等外力因素的剧烈影响，短期的外部赋予给西安经济注入了活力，迅速改变了当地经济的落后面貌，这对西安经济结构的改造具有重要影响，但对外部因素的过度倚重，形成国防、军事统制企业生产，手工业为核心工业体系，消费工业为主体诉求的经济结构，经济发展和社会转型低层次、同质性显著。在经济转型和结构发展中，西安近代化凸显了制度强化经济发展的作用。     

西北屯戍汉简异体字变异规律初探

西北地区以其得天独厚的地理条件,保存并出土了大量秦汉简牍,西北屯戍汉简异体字来源杂乱,类型各异,我们在对其进行全面整理的过程中发现,其形体的变异呈现出较为明显规律,即：同化、异化、类化、记号化。了解这种变化,可以使我们更好地解读古代汉字的演化规律。     

长安的槐树景观与唐代的科举文化——以白居易为中心的研究

槐树是唐代长安一道颇具都城色彩的自然景观,在其形成的过程中逐渐浸染上帝都文化色彩而具有特定的人文含义。文章以白居易为中心,通过其不同时期诗歌中槐树意象所具有的不同含义,来考察中唐新兴知识分子在长安的生活经历及生存状态。由此进一步研究在科举文化背景下槐树所具有的时代含义,以及由此反映的科举士子在长安的生活情状,从一个特殊的视角观照中古时期由以经学为中心的贵族文化到以文学为中心的科举文化转变的过程。     

国有企业改革中政府审计"缺位"问题分析

在国有企业改革中,国有资产流失问题已经成为焦点问题。政府审计是国家经济监督机制,主要职能是要监管好国有资产的安全完整。国有企业改革中出现国有资产流失问题,与政府审计职能弱化有关。在国有企业改革中,政府审计"缺位"、"错位"和"不到位"问题严重,应当加以纠正。在国有企业改革及国有资产管理过程中,政府审计要有针对性地监管国有企业改革过程和国有资产的安全、完整,防止国有资产流失问题进一步加重。     

广东省土地财政问题实证研究

文章通过全面审视中国渐进性制度变迁过程,分析了导致土地财政产生的制度变迁激励和政府行为选择,并以广东省的实际数据佐证了理论分析的结论.研究结果表明,地方政府间的竞争格局、预算内财政压力的制度环境的综合作用,是促使地方政府迈向土地财政的背后推力.因此,土地财政的最大风险是危及中国城市化进程的可持续发展.基于此,文章最后提...     

论中国当代小说与“青年问题”

在中国当代,与"青年"有关的话题一直都是文学/文化关注的重要议题,其与当今中国的特定语境有关,更是中国现代性本身所固有的矛盾的呈现。从这个角度来看当代小说,就会发现青年形象的变迁——从"革命青年"到"问题青年"再到"反叛青年"乃至全球化时代的青年及其针对"永恒的青春"的反复书写,虽然折射出青年自身命运处境的起伏,其实更是中国现代性实践的展开方式及其困境的表征。     

延安精神与党的先进性教育

延安精神是中国共产党人在长期艰难困苦的斗争环境中,把马克思主义与中国实践相结合,将理想、作风、纪律等方面的优良传统凝聚一起而形成的一种精神财富。延安精神的形成过程就是中国共产党在民族解放战争时期先锋模范作用凝炼、升华的过程,继承和弘扬延安精神是中国共产党长期保持先进性的精神源泉之一。在全面建设小康社会这一新的历史任务形势下,回顾和重温延安精神,对于深刻领会保持党的先进性的重要性,无疑会提供一些历史启迪。     

国际海洋争端解决中的“不应诉”问题

争端当事国在国际诉讼中采取"不应诉"策略并非"离经叛道"之举,而是有着更深层次的战略考量。国际法院化解"不应诉"危机的经验表明,争端当事国并无应诉的法律义务,且并不必然导致不利判决。国际法院仍应恪守当事方程序平等原则,在确定存在管辖权的前提下,对案件的事实和法律问题作出令人信服的裁决。中国和俄罗斯近期选择不应诉"南海仲裁案"和"北极日出号案"的事例表明,海洋争端解决机制的强制性与例外规定之间的矛盾势必导致"不应诉"现象。在"不应诉"的尴尬情境下,国际仲裁庭的正当性、独立性、公正性和实效性面临考验。为避免"不应诉"危机的加深,国际仲裁庭宜采取"司法自限"这一路径,在案件的管辖权问题和实体问题方面作出更为谨慎的裁决。     

高适开元二十三年征诣长安考

高适是盛唐时期重要的边塞诗人,历来对其边塞诗关注甚多,然而在诗人本体研究方面还有很多疑点。如其在开元二十三年应制科试的经历,一直为学界所争论,而争论的焦点集中在应试地点是洛阳还是长安上。由于制举考试并不一定由皇帝主持,且考试地点往往确定较早,故而不能因玄宗身在洛阳就认为考试地点也在洛阳。而根据高适诗序和李白《赴上都》一诗,将高适开元二十三年的征诣地点确定为长安应无疑问。     

国家、区域政治与地方性：——以华北B镇“苯中毒”事件为例的多点民族志实验

2002年5月19日,国务院第352号令公布了《使用有毒物品作业 场所劳动保护条例》,从此,与有毒物打交道的劳动者除了已实施的《职 业病防治法》外,又多了一层法律保护网。该《条例》共分7章71条,包 括总则、作业场所的预防措施、劳动过程的防护、职业健康监督、劳动者 的权利与义务和监督管理和罚则等内容。由于此条例的诞生最初由华 北地区J省B镇1所发生的箱包工人"苯中毒"事件所促发,因而人称 "B镇条例"。在这起事件中,共有17名箱包工人中毒,其中5人死亡,     

高校贫困生问题研究

随着高校招生规模的扩大,高校收费制度的实施和标准的逐年提高,使原本存在的高校贫困生问题更加突出。解决高校贫困生问题是现代人才培养和体现教育公平性的需要,本文以“高校贫困生问题”为题,探索解决“高校贫困生问题”的有效办法,具有十分现实的意义。     

Social work programmes in the social democratic welfare regime

In this article we examine the emergence of social worker training in the Nordic countries and discuss the possible effects that the social democratic welfare regime has had on such training. We also discuss the development in recent decades of the academisation of the training and the establishment of social work as a subject of research and teaching. The early history of social worker education is based on archival material, national inquiries and secondary sources. Our presentation of the recent history of social work education is based on the responses to a questionnaire sent to teachers of social work in 33 Nordic social work programmes, and on a survey of course syllabi and prospectuses. It is also based on the reading lists for the social work courses in these programmes.