A Rank-Sum-Type Test for Paired Data with Multiple Endpoints

Clinical trials and other types of studies often examine the effects of a particular treatment or experimental condition on a number of different response variables. Although the usual approach for analysing such data is to examine each variable separately, this can increase the chance of false positive findings. Bonferroni's inequality or Hotelling's T² statistic can be employed to control the overall type I error rate, but these tests generally lack power for alternatives in which the treatment improves the outcome on most or all of the endpoints. For the comparison of independent groups, O'Brien (1984) developed a rank-sum type test that has greater power than the Bonferroni and T² procedures when one treatment is uniformly better (i.e. for all endpoints) than the other treatment(s). In this paper we adapt the rank-sum test to studies involving paired data and demonstrate that it, too, has power advantages for such alternatives. Simulation results are described, and an example from a study measuring the effects of sleep loss on glucose metabolism is presented to illustrate the methodology.     

General partially linear varying-coefficient transformation model with right censored data

In this paper, a unified maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedure is proposed for the analysis of right censored data using general partially linear varying-coefficient transformation models (GPLVCTM), which are flexible enough to include many survival models as its special cases. Unknown functional coefficients in the models are approximated by cubic B-spline polynomial. We estimate B-spline coefficients and regression parameters by maximizing marginal likelihood function. One advantage of this procedure is that it is free of both baseline and censoring distribution. Through simulation studies and a real data application (VA data from the Veteran's Administration Lung Cancer Study Clinical Trial), we illustrate that the proposed estimation procedure is accurate, stable and practical.     

Most powerful tests for use in matched pair experiments when data may be censored

Four distribution-free tests are developed for use in matched pair experiments when data may be censored: a bootstrap based on estimates of the median difference, and three rerandomization tests. The latter include a globally almost most powerful (GAMP) test which uses the original data and two modified Gilbert-Gehan tests which use the ranks. Computation time is reduced by using a binary count to generate subsamples and by restricting subsampling to the uncensored pairs. In Monte Carlo simulations against normal alternatives, mixed normal alternatives, and exponential alternatives, the GAMP test is most powerful with light censoring, the rank test is most powerful with heavy censoring. The bootstrap degenerates to the sign test and is least powerful.     

A nonparametric procedure for testing partially ranked data

In consumer preference studies, it is common to seek a complete ranking of a variety of, say N, alternatives or treatments. Unfortunately, as N increases, it becomes progressively more confusing and undesirable for respondents to rank all N alternatives simultaneously. Moreover, the investigators may only be interested in consumers’ top few choices. Therefore, it is desirable to accommodate the setting where each survey respondent ranks only her/his most preferred k (k?N) alternatives. In this paper, we propose a simple procedure to test the independence of N alternatives and the top-k ranks, such that the value of k can be predetermined before securing a set of partially ranked data or be at the discretion of the investigator in the presence of complete ranking data. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test under root-n local alternatives is established. We demonstrate our procedure with two real data sets.     

Using Markov Chains for Non-perennial Daily Streamflow Data Generation

The use of Markov chains to simulate non-perennial streamflow data is considered. A non-perennial stream may be thought as having three states, namely zero flow, increasing flow and decreasing flow, for which a three-state Markov chain can be constructed. Alternatively, two two-state Markov chains can be used, the first of which represents the existence and non-existence of flow, whereas the second deals with the increment and decrement in the flow for periods with flow. Probabilistic relationships between the two alternatives are derived. Their performances in simulating the state of the stream are compared on the basis of data from two different geographical regions in Turkey. It is concluded that both alternatives are capable of simulating the state of the stream.     

Comparison of goodness of fit tests for the cox proportional hazards model

The proportional hazards regression model of Cox(1972) is widely used in analyzing survival data. We examine several goodness of fit tests for checking the proportionality of hazards in the Cox model with two-sample censored data, and compare the performance of these tests by a simulation study. The strengths and weaknesses of the tests are pointed out. The effects of the extent of random censoring on the size and power are also examined. Results of a simulation study demonstrate that Gill and Schumacher's test is most powerful against a broad range of monotone departures from the proportional hazards assumption, but it may not perform as well fail for alternatives of nonmonotone hazard ratio. For the latter kind of alternatives, Andersen's test may detect patterns of irregular changes in hazards.     

On cramér-von mises tests of goodness of fit with censored data

The paper considers the goodness of fit tests with right censored data or doubly censored data. The Fredholm Integral Equation (FIE) method proposed by Ren (1993) is implemented in the simulation studies to estimate the null distribution of the Cramér-von Mises test statistics and the asymptotic covariance function of the self-consistent estimator for the lifetime distribution with right censored data or doubly censored data. We show that for fixed alternatives, the bootstrap method does not estimate the null distribution consistently for doubly censored data. For the right censored case, a comparison between the performance of FIE and the η out of η bootstrap shows that FIE gives better estimation for the null distribution. The application of FIE to a set of right censored Channing House data and to a set of doubly censored breast cancer data is presented.     

Multistage Sampling Designs and Estimating Equations

In some applications it is cost efficient to sample data in two or more stages. In the first stage a simple random sample is drawn and then stratified according to some easily measured attribute. In each subsequent stage a random subset of previously selected units is sampled for more detailed and costly observation, with a unit's sampling probability determined by its attributes as observed in the previous stages. This paper describes multistage sampling designs and estimating equations based on the resulting data. Maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) and their asymptotic variances are given for designs using parametric models. Horvitz–Thompson estimates are introduced as alternatives to MLEs, their asymptotic distributions are derived and their strengths and weaknesses are evaluated. The designs and the estimates are illustrated with data on corn production.     

Analysis of longitudinal data with drop-out: objectives, assumptions and a proposal

Summary. The problem of analysing longitudinal data that are complicated by possibly informative drop-out has received considerable attention in the statistical literature. Most researchers have concentrated on either methodology or application, but we begin this paper by arguing that more attention could be given to study objectives and to the relevant targets for inference. Next we summarize a variety of approaches that have been suggested for dealing with drop-out. A long-standing concern in this subject area is that all methods require untestable assumptions. We discuss circumstances in which we are willing to make such assumptions and we propose a new and computationally efficient modelling and analysis procedure for these situations. We assume a dynamic linear model for the expected increments of a constructed variable, under which subject-specific random effects follow a martingale process in the absence of drop-out. Informal diagnostic procedures to assess the tenability of the assumption are proposed. The paper is completed by simulations and a comparison of our method and several alternatives in the analysis of data from a trial into the treatment of schizophrenia, in which approximately 50% of recruited subjects dropped out before the final scheduled measurement time.     

Comparing time trends in a two-arm longitudinal study with an ordinal categorical response

A within-subject monotonicity index is proposed to summarize the fol-lowup for each subject in a longitudinal study where the response is required to be only ordinal. The individual measures can be weighted to detect different trend behaviors of interest. Asymptotically normal tests for single group alternatives or for comparing the means of two groups are derived and illustrated with clinical data.     

“大数据”背景下利用扫描数据编制中国CPI问题研究

扫描数据为政府统计源头数据信息化改革与宏观经济测度提供了新的技术范式。基于对世界各国利用扫描数据编制CPI的现状进行梳理研究,并针对中国扫描数据的现状和政府价格统计的特点,提出了一种利用扫描数据编制中国CPI的思路,力图为基于"大数据"的政府统计源头数据信息化改革提供理论和实践参考。     

The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models

In this paper, we introduce logistic models to analyse fertility curves. The models are formulated as linear models of the log odds of fertility and are defined in terms of parameters that are interpreted as measures of level, location and shape of the fertility schedule. This parameterization is useful for the evaluation, and interpretation of fertility trends and projections of future period fertility. For a series of years, the proposed models admit a state-space formulation that allows a coherent joint estimation of parameters and forecasting. The main features of the models compared with other alternatives are the functional simplicity, the flexibility, and the interpretability of the parameters. These and other features are analysed in this paper using examples and theoretical results. Data from different countries are analysed, and to validate the logistic approach, we compare the goodness of fit of the new model against well-known alternatives; the analysis gives superior results in most developed countries.     

Conditional Score Tests for Heteroscedasticity in the Two-Way Error Components Model

This paper extends the one-way heteroskedasticity score test of Holly and Gardiol (2000, In: Krishnakumar, J, Ronchetti, E (Eds.), Panel Data Econometrics: Future Directions, North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 199–211) to two conditional Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests of heteroskedasticity under contiguous alternatives within the two-way error components model framework. In each case, the derivation of Rao's efficient score statistics for testing heteroskedasticity is first obtained. Then, based on a specific set of assumptions, the asymptotic distribution of the score under contiguous alternatives is established. Finally, the expression for the score test statistic in the presence of heteroskedasticity and related asymptotic local powers of these score test statistics are derived and discussed.     

A Bayesian hierarchical model for categorical longitudinal data from a social survey of immigrants

Summary.  The paper investigates a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of categorical longitudinal data from a large social survey of immigrants to Australia. Data for each subject are observed on three separate occasions, or waves, of the survey. One of the features of the data set is that observations for some variables are missing for at least one wave. A model for the employment status of immigrants is developed by introducing, at the first stage of a hierarchical model, a multinomial model for the response and then subsequent terms are introduced to explain wave and subject effects. To estimate the model, we use the Gibbs sampler, which allows missing data for both the response and the explanatory variables to be imputed at each iteration of the algorithm, given some appropriate prior distributions. After accounting for significant covariate effects in the model, results show that the relative probability of remaining unemployed diminished with time following arrival in Australia.     

A jackknife-based versatile test for two-sample problems with right-censored data

For testing the equality of two survival functions, the weighted logrank test and the weighted Kaplan–Meier test are the two most widely used methods. Actually, each of these tests has advantages and defects against various alternatives, while we cannot specify in advance the possible types of the survival differences. Hence, how to choose a single test or combine a number of competitive tests for indicating the diversities of two survival functions without suffering a substantial loss in power is an important issue. Instead of directly using a particular test which generally performs well in some situations and poorly in others, we further consider a class of tests indexed by a weighted parameter for testing the equality of two survival functions in this paper. A delete-1 jackknife method is implemented for selecting weights such that the variance of the test is minimized. Some numerical experiments are performed under various alternatives for illustrating the superiority of the proposed method. Finally, the proposed testing procedure is applied to two real-data examples as well.     

Simple nonparametric tests for a known standard survival based on censored data

It is often of interest in survival analysis to test whether the distribution of lifetimes from which the sample under study was derived is the same as a reference distribution. The latter can be specified on the basis of previous studies or on subject matter considerations. In this paper several tests are developed for the above hypothesis, suitable for right-censored observations. The tests are based on modifications of Moses' one-sample limits of some classical two-sample rank tests. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are derived, consistency is established for alternatives which are stochastically ordered with respect to the null, and Pitman asymptotic efficiencies are calculated relative to competing tests. Simulated power comparisons are reported. An example is given with data on the survival times of lung cancer patients.     

Exact power computation for stratified dose-response studies

Toxicological and pharmaceutical studies often use the stratified dose-response design. This paper deals with the problem of exact power computation for such a design. Recourse to exact methods is advised in study with sparse data. We give three algorithms for exact power calculation and apply them to three data sets. The algorithms include an exact power computation approach and two alternatives to further reduce the computation time: a -precision approach and Monte Carlo approach. Four exact and two asymptotic tests are used for illustration.     

The two-sample problem with multivariate censored data: a new rank test family

A new rank test family is proposed to test the equality of two multivariate failure times distributions with censored observations. The tests are very simple: they are based on a transformation of the multivariate rank vectors to a univariate rank score and the resulting statistics belong to the familiar class of the weighted logrank test statistics. The new procedure is also applicable to multivariate observations in general, such as repeated measures, some of which may be missing. To investigate the performance of the proposed tests, a simulation study was conducted with bivariate exponential models for various censoring rates. The size and power of these tests against Lehmann alternatives were compared to the size and power of two other tests (Wei and Lachin, 1984 and Wei and Knuiman, 1987). In all simulations the new procedures provide a relatively good power and an accurate control over the size of the test. A real example from the National Cooperative Gallstone Study is given     

On the detection of clustering and anisotropy using binary data from a lattice patch

A method i s suggested for detecting spatial pattern of disease data on a rectangular lattice. One first classifies all pairs of points by their distance and orientation of separation and then counts the number of pairs of points in each distanceorientation type for which both points show the disease. A log-linear model is proposed for these counts. Methods of fitting to it are suggested that furnish tests of clustering and of anisotropy. Empirical sarnpling results show that the tests are reasonably powerful against certain alternatives and verify that nominal levels of simificances are approximately correct. The method is given in detail for a single four by five plot and is then adapted for combining data from many such plots. Examples are given of such counts and of the calculations used to analyze them.     

A Parametric approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data

In this article, a parametric framework for estimation and inference in cointegrated panel data models is considered that is based on a cointegrated VAR(p) model. A convenient two-step estimator is suggested where, in the first step, all individual specific parameters are estimated, and in the second step, the long-run parameters are estimated from a pooled least-squares regression. The two-step estimator and related test procedures can easily be modified to account for contemporaneously correlated errors, a feature that is often encountered in multi-country studies. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the two-step estimator and related test procedures outperform semiparametric alternatives such as the fully modified OLS approach, especially if the number of time periods is small.