International cooperation in stockpiles and tariffs for coping with oil supply disruptions

This paper provides a unified treatment of oil stockpiling and demand restraint as policy responses for enhancing energy security and examines the implications of recent changes in the structure and performance of the international oil market for the design of policies. These issues are addressed using a dynamic programming framework in which international policy actions of key oil-importing countries are modeled as a Nash dynamic game. Significant policy implications from the analysis include: (1) the result that, with realistic assumptions about disruption risks and inventory capacities, differences between noncooperative and coordinated stockpile policies appear to be minor and (2) significant mutual gains could be reaped from a modest degree of collective restraint on normal market oil demand. The broader role of international cooperation in enhancing energy security is also discussed.     

Successful yet insufficient: German policies for higher employment rates among older age groups

In recent years among the OECD countries, Germany has witnessed the largest increase in the employment rates of older people. This increase, and general German employment rates, are associated with both supply side measures in the fields of pensions and unemployment policies and employment promotion policies. Yet, supply side measures and Germany's shift from conservative towards liberal policy goals and policies in the case of older workers have resulted in economic inequality. These policies could be complemented by pro‐employability measures in order to become fully effective. This article describes recent policy reforms in the main policy fields of retirement, unemployment, and employment promotion, considers their effects on employment and inequality, and offers reform suggestions to raise further older worker employment rates without increasing inequality.     

新形势下日本强化经济安全保障及其影响

随着科技革命、产业革命蓬勃兴起,国际经济秩序面临深刻调整,地缘政治冲突加剧,中美博弈长期化。2020年新冠肺炎疫情的发生和蔓延,进一步推动了上述趋势。日益增强的不确定性和风险,成为制约各经济体持续稳定发展的潜在因素。在此形势下,主要国家和地区从安全保障的角度强化经济活动,在发展与安全之间寻求新的平衡。近几年,日本不断健全和完善经济安全政策法规,强化政府相关职能,努力提升在关键技术、供应链、战略资源等方面的自主性,同时与欧美等“志同道合国”加强合作,促进形成符合日本利益的国际规则和秩序,实现日本在国际社会“不可或缺”的存在及其国家战略。日本强化经济安全保障,会给自身、地区及世界带来一些影响。     

Socioeconomic status,perceived inequality of opportunity,and attitudes toward redistribution

Previous research suggests that an individual’s socioeconomic status (SES) is negatively associated with attitudes toward redistributive policies. The objective of this study is to examine whether the relationship between an individual’s subjective SES and his or her attitudes toward redistribution is contingent upon perceptions of inequality of opportunity. A series of multilevel analyses was performed using data from 28 countries from the 2009 International Social Survey Program (ISSP). Results revealed that the relationship between individual SES and attitudes toward redistribution was weaker among individuals who more strongly believed that success lies beyond the control of individuals. Shared perceptions of inequality of opportunity at the country level were also significant. The relationship between SES and attitudes toward redistribution was weaker in countries with higher levels of public perceptions of inequality of opportunity. In conclusion, people commensurately support redistribution policies (even contrary to their own self-interest) as they recognize the significance of inequality of opportunity. The greater the support among people for redistribution against their self-interest, the weaker the social cleavage in attitudes toward redistribution across different SES strata, and the higher the overall level of support for redistribution in society.     

Prospects for trade in manufactured goods between industrial and developing countries, 1978–1990

This paper examines prospective changes in trade in manufactured goods between the industrial and the developing countries. Assuming the continuation of the policies followed by the industrial countries, it is projected that the manufactured imports of these countries from the developing countries would rise at an average annual rate of 12.5% between 1978 and 1980 while their manufactured exports would increase 9 7% a year. Nonetheless, the export surplus of the industrial countries in trade in manufactured goods would rise, contributing to the growth of industrial output. The expansion of their exports of manufactured goods would also contribute to economic growth in the developing countries, and both groups of countries would benefit from specialization according to comparative advantage.     

中国参与APEC合作的经济收益和非经济收益分析

在亚太地区新区域主义不断发展的大背景下,参与亚太经济合作组织(APEC)合作是符合中国国家利益的。本文以传统区域经济一体化理论和新区域主义的非传统收益理论为基础,分析了中国参与APEC合作的经济收益和非经济收益。除了能够获得贸易收益、投资收益、规模经济收益、经济增长收益等传统静态和动态经济收益之外,我国在非经济领域的收益几乎囊括所有非传统收益理论提出的内容,如政治收益、谈判筹码作用、信息传递收益、保险收益、机制协调作用等。这些收益是中国参与APEC合作的潜在收益,它们的获得直接受制于APEC区域经济合作的进程。     

中印能源政策比较研究

中印能源政策重点各有侧重,即印度仍然以保障能源供应为第一要义,而中国日益需要考虑环境资源的约束,近年来政策重心明显转向节能和提高能效。能源市场化改革是两国面临的共同课题,但是中国注重市场与行政手段的综合运用,而印度更致力于建立理想的自下而上的市场调控模式。就能源决策管理体制而言,中印两国努力建设高级别的集中能源管理体制,但是印度的步伐相对较慢、难度也更大。中印两国可以在缓和能源资源竞争、开发能源技术、交流市场管理和制度建设经验以及推进多边能源机制建设等方面进行合作。     

2011年越南经济发展回顾

2011年,越南的经济伴随着高通胀在重重困难中发展,但仍然保持了较快增长,贸易逆差减少是其一个亮点。越南对外贸易和投资步伐不断加快,特别是加快了对周边国家和对非洲市场的开拓。     

Should trade barriers be phased-out slowly? A case study of North America

A dynamic computable general is developed to analyze the effects of different phase-in rates of the Canada–US and North American Free Trade Agreements on their member countries, as well as the impact on the rest of their trading partners. The model is based on intertemporal optimization behavior of households and firms with fully specified countries/regions in which all prices and quantities are endogenously determined. I show that the size and the distribution of the welfare gains from these trade agreements are quite sensitive to the speed of trade liberalization. In particular, I find as a general rule that smaller member countries are better off under a more rapid phase-out of trade barriers, while larger member countries/regions are better off under a slower phase-out.     

Trade and poverty nexus: A case study of Sri Lanka

The link between trade liberalisation and poverty has become one of the most debated topics in recent years. There is a growing body of empirical literature on this topic and many studies provide mixed results. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a detailed case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is used as an analytical framework to examine the trade-poverty nexus. The results suggest that, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro-poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall, this study suggests that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor creating uneven gains across different household groups in Sri Lanka. While short-term complementary policies are needed to compensate vulnerable income groups, long-term policies are needed to make gains from trade liberalisation more inclusive and equitable to maintain economic and political stability in Sri Lanka.     

Resource reallocation under alternative trade regimes: A simulation of Turkey's entry into the EEC

A general equilibrium model that is applicable for simulating the directions in which resources would be reallocated under alternative trade regimes, in particular, a free trade regime, is developed and applied to the Turkish economy. Because of the likelihood that Turkey will gain full entry into the EEC, the model is also used to identify sectors in which Turkey may have a comparative advantage relative to the EEC countries and to estimate magnitudes of static gains from full entry. To provide some tests of important generalizations from the theory of customs unions, these estimates of static gains are compared with some estimates of total welfare effects of the entry of the United Kingdom into the EEC.     

The challenges to the liberal trading system

Free trade has been a universally accepted economic tenet for almost two centuries. Despite challenges, Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage has proven to be one of the most enduring of all economic laws. In recent decades, however, the liberal trading system has come under increasing attacks in the form of strategic trade and industrial policies, the deindustrialization in advanced countries, rapid globalization and outsourcing, and others. This paper reviews each of these attacks and concludes that they do not justify abandoning or moving away from the general preference of a liberal trading system.     

从国家经济政策的视角看南宁市工业经济可持续发展

近年来,国家不断出台一些宏观调控经济政策,旨在防止经济过热,2007年的密集程度尤甚。通过理解、分析国家经济政策,提出着力在集约利用土地、提升工业园区建设、节能减排、优化产业结构等问题上破解难题,促进南宁市工业经济可持续发展的思路。     

Financing Innovation Development in the Context of Foreign Experience and Domestic Practice

The importance of innovation development is determined by the strategic role that true innovations play in the development of the state and the formation of a healthy, competitive economy. The organization of massive industrial production—which applies advanced technological achievements and science-intensive knowledge to form an infrastructure for innovation—should be a key component of the government’s strategic policy to develop the national economy. In Russia, the infrastructure for innovation is less developed than other industrialized countries. This article considers the consequences of this underdevelopment, and proposes several ways of financing basic and applied research on the basis of foreign precedent and domestic practice.     

Industrial Relations as a Source of Social Policy: A Typology of the Institutional Conditions for Industrial Agreements on Social Benefits

The article's starting point is that the now‐conventional conceptualization of welfare state retrenchment as a shift from state provision of income support to market processes is misleading. Rather, state provision may be replaced by benefits negotiated collectively by trade unions and employers. As a first step to further investigate this development the article suggests a typology of institutional contexts within which industrial agreements on social benefits emerge. This typology is based on Thomas H. Marshall's distinction between political and industrial citizenship. Following the comparative method of the ‘parallel demonstration of theory’, the typology is applied to four countries where collective agreements on social benefits have recently been concluded, namely Denmark, France, the Netherlands and Germany. It is argued that, on the one hand, the state's activity or passivity in labour relations and, on the other hand, the timing of the institutionalization of political and industrial citizenship is decisive for the development of collectively negotiated benefits. The conclusion for comparative welfare state research is that, when viewing policies of welfare state retrenchment, the research should systematically include industrial relations and their historical trajectories in its frame of reference.     

Agricultural economic reforms,gender inequality and poverty in Senegal

In Senegal, as in many developing countries, the agricultural sector plays a key role in the economy. In addition to supplying food, agriculture is the most important source of employment, especially for women. Through the Plan for an Emerging Senegal (PES), the Senegalese government is implementing an ambitious financing plan to improve the productivity of the agricultural sector and enhance employment opportunities for women. Our study assesses the impact of two PES measures (investment subsidies and an increase in production subsidies for the agricultural sectors) on economic growth, women's employment, poverty and inequality using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model. The results show that both policies have generally positive effects in reducing poverty and gender inequalities. However, investment subsidies in the agricultural sectors have stronger impacts in reducing gender inequality and poverty in the long term.     

国外农业发展的公共政策与启示

农业是关系国计民生的大问题,如何保障农业发展,公共政策系统起着至关重要的作用。正因为公共政策显得如此重要,世界各国尤的是大国其政治和经济体系已经发展了一种精细而复杂的公共政策,以推动农业发展。国外的许多经验对于我们解决农业问题有借鉴作用。     

The transfer of arms and the diffusion of democracy: do arms promote or undermine the “third wave”?

The post–Cold War world has witnessed a proliferation of countries governed by democratic rule. Consequently, optimism has arisen about the prospects for the spread of freedom along with democratic peace and prosperity. Along these lines, many democratic countries have made the active promotion of democracy an explicit goal and a condition for third world countries’ assistance. However, such intentions may be threatened by the ever-present arms trade. Not only do arms transfers play a key role in the foreign policies of many democratic countries, but many developing countries continue to purchase arms from abroad at a steady rate. From the perspective of the developing recipients, this study seeks to empirically assess the impact of the arms trade on democratization. To this end, this paper utilizes an exploratory data technique, locally weighted scatterplot smoother (LOWESS) to examine data for developing countries between 1982 and 1992. By exploring graphically the patterns and distributions revealed by these indicators, the implications of the international arms trade for the spread of democracy are assessed.     

The Good Life: what about the children?

This paper is a reflective historical survey of how Australia, despite its affluence, has not delivered ‘the good life’ to poor Australians, both indigenous and non‐indigenous. It argues that, contrary to our national mythology, this country was founded on institutionalised social inequality and on the exclusion of Indigenous people from land rights, property and equal citizenship. As one of the world's twenty richest countries, we perform poorly across a wide range of social and health indicators because we suffer from entrenched, systemic and growing inequality. If we are to survive the challenges that face us from climate change and the global financial crisis, we need to shape policies that mitigate income and social inequality and that promote inclusion and better social cohesion.     

Latin America and the crisis (points for the balance of a decade)

The decade of the 1980s was catastrophic for the countries of Latin America because of profound transformations in the world economy, which started in the 1970s, the wilting of the state development programs that were imposed after World War II, and the collapse of socialism with the incipient transition to market economies. The crisis started because of the erosion of the world economic system as constituted under the Bretton Woods agreement; the drastic drop in the economic growth of market economies; the increased costs of living and the deterioration of the environment; the decrease in industrial capacity; and the emergence of transnationalization of production. In Latin America, the economic models that had been in place without solving underdevelopment became even more obsolete (import substitution, internal trade, and the role of the state). The crisis of socialism and the rapprochement of eastern European countries to western Europe also affected Latin America (e.g., Germany cancelled 30 mine exploration projects in Bolivia due to investments in East Germany). The structural readjustment policies of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank resulted in currency devaluations, redistribution of government funds, elimination of various subsidies, reduction of public debt and social expenditures, reduction of public employment, and payment of external debt. The result was more inflation (in Bolivia, Brazil, Peru, and Argentina, inflation rates were 683.7%, 157.1%, 100.1%, and 326.2%, respectively, between 1980 and 1986), unemployment, and poverty in the lost decade of the 1980s. After 1982, state expenditures on roads, education, hospitals, and nutrition declined by 40% in Mexico. Even though most countries returned to democracy in the region, this was at the cost of the increased role of the military and the transnationals. The grand parties collapsed and in Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia authoritarian tendencies survived into the 1970s degrading democracy. The states' socioeconomic regulatory role has to be redefined.