Macroeconomic Determinants of Equilibrium Unemployment Insurance

This paper proposes a new modeling strategy as regards the definition of an optimal level of unemployment benefits. While the traditional methodology privileges labor market equilibrium to derive optimal employment, wage and unemployment benefit levels, we present a model in which the optimal level of unemployment benefits is a function of the government’s macroeconomic objectives in terms of inflation and output fluctuations. In a second stage, the model allows for the investigation of unemployment insurance effects on labor market equilibrium.     

Modelling Wage Growth Dynamics in Italy, 1960-90

ABSTRACT: In this work we analyse the common dynamic properties of wage inflation, price inflation, unemployment and labour productivity using Italian annual data (1960-90, source: Prometeia). Applying multivariate cointegration technique we test for the presence of a wage equation and a price mark-up equation. The preferred identification suggests that it is possible to build up an error correction representation for the wage inflation, in which the rate of acceleration in wages depends on the contemporaneous rate of acceleration in prices and on the adjustment to long-run disequilibrium as represented by a Phillips type relation. This representation is rejected for the price inflation which turns out to be weakly exogenous within the system. Furthermore, there is evidence that wage inflation does not Granger-cause price inflation. The overall conclusion is that wage inflation does not contribute in explaining the price inflation process and the traditional mark-up view of inflation is not supported by data. The policy implication is that monetary policy need not respond to wage data because they do not contain additional information about the future path of inflation.     

Wage Structure,Incomes Policy and Decentralised Bargaining: the Case of Greece

Abstract. Developments in Greek industrial relations suggest that decentralised bargaining is not a panacea. The manufacturing wage structure in Greece has an exceptional course associated with the rise of informal decentralised bargaining. Interindustry wage differentials increased in a period of incomes policies aiming to narrow the wage structure. The influence exerted by inflation and unemployment is, compared to past evidence from the US. and the U.K., quite unconventional. Under informal bargaining, high-wage powerful industrial branches “benefit” from higher inflation and lower unemployment.     

An Equilibrium Theory of Learning,Search, and Wages

We examine the labor market effects of incomplete information about the workers' own job‐finding process. Search outcomes convey valuable information, and learning from search generates endogenous heterogeneity in workers' beliefs about their job‐finding probability. We characterize this process and analyze its interactions with job creation and wage determination. Our theory sheds new light on how unemployment can affect workers' labor market outcomes and wage determination, providing a rational explanation for discouragement as the consequence of negative search outcomes. In particular, longer unemployment durations are likely to be followed by lower reemployment wages because a worker's beliefs about his job‐finding process deteriorate with unemployment duration. Moreover, our analysis provides a set of useful results on dynamic programming with optimal learning.     

THE RETURN OF THE WAGE PHILLIPS CURVE

The standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage setting is shown to imply a simple dynamic relation between wage inflation and unemployment. Under some assumptions, that relation takes a form similar to that found in empirical wage equations—starting from Phillips’ (1958) original work—and may thus be viewed as providing some theoretical foundations to the latter. The structural wage equation derived here is shown to account reasonably well for the comovement of wage inflation and the unemployment rate in the US economy, even under the strong assumption of a constant natural rate of unemployment.     

Wage Bargaining and Profitability: A Disaggregative Analysis

Abstract. Previous analyses of the wage/profit relationship at a disaggregative level in Britain have given positive results for pre-war years but negative results for early post-war years. However, this is probably due to the increasingly unreliable nature of the enterprise- based profits series published in the National Accounts until 1982. We have constructed, instead, what are essentially establishment-based Census data on profits for fourteen manufacturing industries, up to 1986. We have also been able to extend the disaggregative unemployment data, the publication of which also ceased in 1982. The wage equations that we have estimated include profits and unemployment (and other variables) in an explicit Nash bargaining model, in line with widely held views as to the way that wage negotiations are actually conducted. The results obtained show a highly significant role for profits, as well as having other implications, notably the positive (hysteresis) effect of industry unemployment, by contrast with the normal negative effect of aggregate unemployment, and the important effects of relative wages - which play a large role in various disaggregative studies of the propagation of inflation.     

The social and psychological causes of inflation

It appears that it is no longer possible for the rate of inflation in Britain and other advanced industrial economies to be controlled by the traditional macro- economic reglators, at least within the limits imposed by other politico-economic goals (such as the maintenance of an acceptable level of unemployment). This has led many to look for explanations of inflation beyond economic analysis: in the psychology of wage and salary earners; in the changing class structure of our society; in the changing loci of power and means of exercising power; and in our systems of labour relations and pay determination.The author's organization (PEP—Political and Economic Planning) have just come to the end of a programme of research concerned with the contribution that non- economic perspectives can make to an understanding of the process of inflation. The author has been focusing upon the pressure on pay and has carried out two studies designed to explore the forces contributing to the apparent increase in the demand for pay increases and the conviction that these are legitimate among wage and salary earners. This article describes his findings.     

Unemployment and Business Cycles

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, we do not impose wage inertia. Instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages. Our model outperforms a variant of the standard New Keynesian Calvo sticky wage model. According to our estimated model, there is a critical interaction between the degree of price stickiness, monetary policy, and the duration of an increase in unemployment benefits.     

Market Volatility and the Structure of US Earnings

This paper studies the relationship between volatility of industry‐specific shipments and real earnings. In an efficiency wage theoretical framework I show that wage premiums for the risk of unemployment depend on the value of the worker’s outside offer net of his/her mobility costs. Empirically it is shown that wage premiums for the risk of unemployment markedly vary in a cross section of workers. The main finding is that market volatility changes the return to skill such as labor market experience and education. Its impact markedly varies across occupation groups, with managers receiving returns to labour market experience that significantly increase with product market volatility.     

Wage Flexibility for Skilled and Unskilled Workers: New Evidence on the Norwegian Wage Curve

Empirical evidence is provided in favour of a hypothesis that wages for unskilled workers are more responsive to unemployment than wages for skilled workers. The results imply vigorous wage responsiveness to low levels of unemployment for both groups, while the wage curves become almost entirely flat for unemployment rates above 1.7 percent. One interpretation of this result is that firms have strong incentives to increase wages in order to recruit and retain workers when unemployment is below some critical level. Since unemployed workers will certainly find work, the expected costs of a job loss are small, as are costs associated with an egalitarian wage policy.     

Employability of Young Italian Men after a Jobless Period, 1989–98

In this paper we investigate the existence of negative jobless duration dependence and the impact of jobless spells on future wages. Our findings are somewhat out of line compared with analogous explorations. We find evidence of very long unemployment duration of the young male labor force, higher than reported anywhere else in Western Europe, as well as large negative unemployment duration dependence. On the other hand, young Italian men experiencing jobless periods in their early careers face small re‐employment wage losses. Such losses do increase with the duration of joblessness, but they are lower than reported in the USA, Canada, the UK, France, and Spain.     

Wage Premium in the Industrial Sector of the Spanish Economy: Empirical Evidence

Abstract. This paper presents evidence that firm-level productivity increases when the relative wage rises, or the level of unemployment rises. Both facts are consistent with the efficiency wage model. Moreover, there is support for the idea that an increase in the sector's wage with respect to the previous year also increases productivity. We obtain the empirical evidence through a double-hurdle model. We use this estimation technique because it can be established that the differences in productivity between sectors could be explained by differences in effort. It means that some of the industrial sectors of the Spanish economy may pay wage premia while others do not. We also test this implication through panel data.     

Standard of Living as a Right,Not a Privilege: Is It Time to Change the Dialogue from Minimum Wage to Living Wage?

Dating back to the 1930s, President Franklin D. Roosevelt argued that workers were entitled to a wage that allowed them to enjoy a decent standard of living—a conviction that led the president to propose the first federally‐mandated minimum wage. Mr. Roosevelt’s proposal was met with highly partisan resistance in congress and the courts—reactions not different in kind from the highly partisan resistance former President Obama experienced in his proposal to increase the federal minimum wage from its current level of $7.25 per hour. Reflecting President Roosevelt’s convictions, it is clear that many low wage workers today are not, and cannot, enjoying a decent standard of living at current minimum wage levels. Further, many of the economic arguments raised in opposition to increasing the minimum wage have been thoroughly discredited: empirical evidence suggests that increased minimum wages would not lead to dramatic spikes in unemployment, massive substitutions of capital for labor, business closings, and significantly increased consumer prices. However, as compelling as arguments for increasing the minimum wage may be, the reality is that this may not be sufficient to alleviate the plight of low income workers, particularly given the political nature of minimum wage adjustments. Indeed, it may be time to shift the national focus away from the minimum wage to an emphasis on viable living wage legislation, a proposition consistent with the social justice perspective of contemporary ethicists.     

THE REPLACEMENT PROBLEM IN FRICTIONAL ECONOMIES: A NEAR‐EQUIVALENCE RESULT

We examine how technological change affects wage inequality and unemployment in a calibrated model of matching frictions in the labor market. We distinguish between two polar cases studied in the literature: a “creative destruction” economy, where new machines enter chiefly through new matches and an “upgrading” economy, where machines in existing matches are replaced by new machines. Our main results are: (i) these two economies produce very similar quantitative outcomes, and (ii) the total amount of wage inequality generated by frictions is very small. We explain these findings in light of the fact that, in the model calibrated to the US economy, both unemployment and vacancy durations are very short, i.e., the matching frictions are quantitatively minor. Hence, the equilibrium allocations of the model are remarkably close to those of a frictionless version of our economy where firms are indifferent between upgrading and creative destruction, and where every worker is paid the same market‐clearing wage. These results are robust to the inclusion of machine‐specific or match‐specific heterogeneity into the benchmark model. (JEL: J41, J64, O33)     

Unemployment Duration of Spouses: Evidence From France

This paper analyses the conditional probability of leaving unemployment of French married individuals from 1991 to 2002. We find that the effect of spousal labor income on unemployment duration is asymmetric for men and women. In particular, the probability of men to find a job is increasing in wife's labor income, while it is decreasing in husband's earnings for women. To adjust for endogenous selection into marriage, we use the quarter of birth as an instrumental variable for the spousal wage. Finally, we show that introducing a breadwinner stigma in a joint job search model generates the positive correlation observed for men in the data.     

Labour Market Regulation,Flexibility and Employment

ABSTRACT: Chronic unemployment and slow employment growth in some countries have led to calls for more labor-market “flexibility”. This paper defines the flexibility issue in terms of legally-mandated “severance”, a generalized employment cost linked to seniority. A mandated severance benefit can stand for a variety of programs including employer-provided employment guarantees, payments which must be made to laid-off workers, and compensation for wrongful discharge. Such a mandated cost can be seen as a payroll tax on the employer, raising the issue of tax incidence. Employers often take the view that labor costs are given and that mandated costs are simply add-ons to pre-existing cost levels. However, the literature on tax incidence suggests that a significant portion of “employer-paid” payroll taxes are shifted to labor in the form of lower wages. Such shifting should reduce the dis-employment effects attributed to severance. A model is provided of a firm upon which a severance mandate is imposed. Even at the micro level, the firm can shift some of the cost of severance to employees by lowering wages — although at the expense of higher turnover costs associated with increased quit rates. At the macro level, to the extent that firms reduce employment, there could be still further downward wage adjustments which would shift the severance burden to labor and mitigate the dis-employment effect. Ultimately, if the natural rate of unemployment is raised by severance mandates, the age-old question is raised of why wages do not fall in the face of labor surpluses. The true inflexibility to be explained, therefore, is in wage determination.     

Wages and Unemployment in Italy,a Long Term Perspective

ABSTRACT: This paper traces a long-term perspective of the relationship between wages and unemployment in the Italian economy from the end of the fifties to the mid-eighties. During this period, the rate of unemployment exhibited three distinct time profiles. After a cyclical episode from around 1958 to the mid-sixties, the unemployment rates changed very little for a decade, showing only mild fluctuations until 1975. Since then, unemployment has been increasing steadily, and in 1987 it exceeded 12|X% of the labour force. The aim of this paper is not to provide a new interpretation of facts, but rather to assess whether, and when, wage pressure has represented a significant factor in the evolution of unemployment. The main conclusion of the paper is that the considerable rise in unemployment observed since the mid-70s is part of a long term evolution, and that in the long-run wages are not exogenous. Though there have been periods of exogenous wage push temporarily affecting unemployment, the argument that the continuous rise in unemployment depends on inappropriate real wages has no empirical content.     

Inequality and Unemployment in a Global Economy

This paper develops a new framework for examining the determinants of wage distributions that emphasizes within‐industry reallocation, labor market frictions, and differences in workforce composition across firms. More productive firms pay higher wages and exporting increases the wage paid by a firm with a given productivity. The opening of trade enhances wage inequality and can either raise or reduce unemployment. While wage inequality is higher in a trade equilibrium than in autarky, gradual trade liberalization first increases and later decreases inequality.     

Minimum Wage Effects on Labor Market Outcomes under Search,Matching, and Endogenous Contact Rates

Building upon a continuous‐time model of search with Nash bargaining in a stationary environment, we analyze the effect of changes in minimum wages on labor market outcomes and welfare. Although minimum wage increases may or may not lead to increases in unemployment in our model, they can be welfare‐improving to labor market participants on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market. We discuss identification of the model using Current Population Survey data on accepted wages and unemployment durations, and show that by incorporating a limited amount of information from the demand side of the market it is possible to obtain credible and precise estimates of all primitive parameters. We show that the optimal minimum wage in 1996 depends critically on whether or not contact rates can be considered to be exogenous and we note that the limited variation in minimum wages makes testing this assumption problematic.     

Union Bargaining,Wage Differentials and Employment

Abstract. Reviewing empirical studies concerning the corporatism-flexibility-performance nexus the paper discusses decentralized and centralized bargaining systems. Revenue pay systems, concession bargaining and two-tier wage systems as means to enhance wage flexibility at the firm level are also considered. Both theoretical and empirical evidence is presented, showing that unions are bargaining for greater employment security for the already employed (the insiders). In return, unions are ready to accept greater wage flexibility and even wage decreases. By contrast, the insider-outsider theory does suggest how unions may accentuate involuntary unemployment, because there may be ways in which a union can help to raise the wages of the insiders without reducing their chances of continued employment.