Consequences of the Disarmament Process for the Labour Market in Germany

In Germany the international peace process has important consequences for the economy, especially for the labour market. The German armed forces will be reduced from 520,000 to 370,000. Nearly three quarters of the approximately 830,000 foreign soldiers stationed in Germany are in the process of leaving the country. Parallel to this there will be a reduction of about 100,000 jobs for civil employees. There are strong indicators showing that the market of civil employees is an “internal market” (of the type often described by labour market segmentation theory) and there are high barriers against the mobility of workers. Measures of active labour market policy (especially of the German Federal Office of Labour) supports the transition of civil workers into new jobs. These provisions are assisted by measures of regional policy in regions with relatively high unemployment rates, where the dissolution and reduction of garrisons affect the prosperity of entire regions. In conglomerates with high growth rates, however, positive consequences of the disarmament process can be expected.     

Subjective Measures of Employment Opportunities and Interregional Migration

Abstract. Empirical studies of interregional mobility routinely use regional unemployment differentials to characterize economic incentives to move between regions. In this paper, we present a new regional labour market indicator computed from survey data in which respondents are asked to evaluate local employment opportunities in their resident municipality and surroundings. The subjective measures of satisfaction with local employment opportunities have positive and significant impact on interregional migration flows, also when controlling for traditional measures of regional labour market conditions, including the regional unemployment rate. Contrary to most European studies, we find that regional labour market conditions have a strong effect on interregional migration flows.     

A Structural Approach to the European Labour Market

The structure of the European labour market is highly differentiated by geo-graphical area. If the 1992 integration is likely to induce short-medium term adjustment effects on employment, these will mostly affect regional labour markets. Negative adjustments will follow different distribution patterns, probably exacerbating current regional disequilibria. On the other hand, still little known are the geographical features of the European economic, social and production structures. Although many studies have recently concentrated on the analysis of local labour markets, few of them have addressed the issue of Community regions. Through multivariate and cluster analyses of structural data on regional labour markets, the paper offers a confirmation of the explanatory power of local market analysis, as applied to the European area. The structural features of each elementary area are captured by three factors only that allow the construction of a coherent classification of EEC regions in four major clusters. This classification is used to identify the “weak areas” that, after a reconsideration in unified terms of European cooperation policies, should be the object of new development interventions.     

The Labour Market in Macedonia: A Labour Demand Analysis

Abstract. This paper examines the labour market in Macedonia, a country with the highest unemployment rate in Europe. I describe labour market institutions and policies during the transition. I also examine job creation and job destruction using firm‐level data and I estimate short‐term and long‐term elasticities of the labour demand. The analysis shows that there are regulatory barriers to the labour market flexibility. I can also conclude that the privatization of socially owned enterprises has failed to promote job creation. Nevertheless, labour market problems seem to stem from factors other than substantial sluggishness of firms in adjusting employment to variations in wages.     

Trade and Labour Markets: Vertical and Regional Differentiation in Italy

The labour market misfortunes of the less skilled and rapid growth of international trade in manufactured goods with less advanced countries are linked by the paradoxical observation that trade theorists are in the forefront of those denying the importance of trade in income distribution. This paper analyses this conclusion by stressing the importance of vertical differentiation of trade flows and regional differentiation of skills in order to identify labour market effects of trade integration. Vertical and regional differentiation in trade and labour markets are analysed for a country, Italy, where these two elements seem to play a crucial role. The results show a likely displacement effect on unskilled labour due to trade flows with less advanced countries. Given the characteristics of Italian trade and labour markets, a stronger trade‐induced displacement effect on demand for unskilled labour takes place in the North of the country. Thus the vertical differentiation in Italian intra‐industry trade is a warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets if product heterogeneity is not adequately considered. The regional differentiation of skill intensity is another warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets whenever cross‐sectoral effects and the change in relative specialization are not adequately considered.     

Labour Policy in the Federal Republic of Germany: Challenges and Concepts

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how German labour policy, both employment policy and active labour market policies, has developed between 1974 and 1987. Government intervention for full employment in a welfare state, a cooperative system of industrial relations, an active labour market policy, and a comparatively efficient system of vocational and adult education did not prevent the loss of full employment in 1974. But persistent labour market slack until today has not fundamentally changed the climate of relative political and social calm. The basic concepts, programmes and specific measures of labour policies pursued in the FRG are surveyed with special reference to their costs and effects on employment and the structure of unemployment. The challenges to labour policy stem from three complete business cycles around a slightly falling trend in employment and the bad prospectives of the German labour market until the year 2000. Four major measures of labour market policy now reduce registered unemployment by about 400,000 in the mid 1980s. Total costs of unemployment amounting to 57 billion DM per year offer financial alternatives to create jobs and to reduce working hours. Finally, actual proposals under discussion in Germany are examined in order to combat unemployment in a determined commitment to full employment immediately.     

Public-Private Wage Differentials in French-Speaking Africa: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract. In the framework of structural adjustment programs implemented in Africa, the idea that wages in the public sector are too high compared to those of the private sector is partly based on wage policies with regard to the public sector. But the existence of public-wage differentials, inducing a labour market segmentation within the modern sector, has rarely been the object of attentive examination. With the help of earnings functions, based on homogeneous cross-section and logitudinal data of seven capitals of French-speaking Africa, the author plans to verify this hypothesis. The main conclusion of this research is that distortions on the modern labour market of many African countries are less important than one may think. In most of the countries considered, public-private wage gaps are essentially attributable to characteristics of individuals. This suggests that policies aiming to reduce wages of the public sector are no longer justifiable, economically and socially.     

Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy

Abstract. This paper analyses whether active labour market policies (ALMPs) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the possible effects of active labour market policies on labour force dynamics. The econometric methodologies implemented are the generalized method of moment (GMM) and the panel vector autoregression (P‐VAR). The evidence yielded by the GMM models suggests that the effects of different ALMPs on unemployment are dissimilar across the Italian regions. It follows that some active programmes are likely to have a greater effect in the South than in the North. The results of the P‐VAR models estimated are synthesized by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition. The impulse response analysis suggests that an increase in total ALMP gives rise to: (i) a decrease in the unemployment rate; and (ii) a significant increase in labour force participation. More interestingly, the results obtained from the error variance decomposition analysis show that unemployment movements are not driven by shocks in the ALMPs and that, especially in the northern regions, atypical contracts shocks account for a substantial portion of unemployment dynamics.     

Rising Earnings Inequality and Returns to Skills in the United Kingdom Labour Market*

Abstract. Since the later 1970s, earnings inequality in the United Kingdom has been rising steadily. It is argued that this rise reflects increasing returns to skills, as proxied by factors like education and occupation, while the strengthening labour market position of relatively skilled workers was also reflected in improving relative unemployment and labour force participation rates. These trends are best explained by a rise in the relative demand for skilled labour, implying that the most efficient way of restraining earnings inequality growth is through vigorous educational policies.     

Modelling Labour Demand Dynamics beyond the Frictionless Environment

Abstract. In this study we develop a simple econometric model for labour demand dynamics by explicitly considering deviations from the standard frictionless economic environment. In particular, we explore the potential effect on labour demand of capital market imperfections, labour market institutional rigidities in the form of union power, and the impact of uncertainty. In addition, in the presence of uncertainty, adjustment costs and irreversibility emerge as an important factor that introduces an option value of waiting. According to our results, leverage exerts a direct negative impact on employment dynamics indicating that capital market imperfections are indeed present. Moreover, leverage is found to also affect the adjustment process of employment. Finally, we document asymmetric effects of frictions on labour demand across different size groups that imply a higher vulnerability of small and medium sectors with respect to debt levels. Uncertainty exerts a significantly negative impact on labour demand, which is compatible with presence of partial irreversibility of employment decisions. Finally, unions over and above their effect via higher wages are positively related to employment, a finding that is indicative of their pursue for job security.     

When the Outcome is Employability: Leading Indicators for the Governance of Labour Market Services

The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between output, leading outcome, and lagging outcome indicators in the governance of labour market services. To support the definition of human capital development policies, the adoption of an intermediate outcome indicator of employability is proposed. By crossing data from a survey on workers’ perception of their own employability with administrative data on individual employment conditions, this work tests the effectiveness of such indicator. Results suggest a positive relationship between subjective career success and outcome, confirming the importance of employability as a predictor of long-term labour market performance.     

A Stock–Flow Matching Approach to Evaluation of Public Training Programme in a High Unemployment Environment

Abstract. Monthly panel (1998–2003) data from regional labour offices in Latvia are used to analyse the matching process in a high unemployment–low labour demand environment and to evaluate the impact of active labour market policy programmes on outflows from unemployment. Results suggest that the hiring process is driven by a stock–flow rather than by a traditional matching function: the stock of unemployed at the beginning of the month and flow of vacancies arriving during the month are the key determinants of outflows from unemployment to employment, whereas stock of vacancies and inflow of unemployed do not play any significant role. We find positive and significant effect of training programmes on outflows from unemployment to employment, thus providing strong evidence against cuts in training expenditures.     

Exploring Job Satisfaction in Private and Public Employment: Empirical Evidence from Greece

Abstract. This paper analyses subjective job satisfaction (JS) responses by employees in the public and private sectors of the Greek labour market. Panel data covering the period 1995–2001 and a random effects ordered probit model are used for estimation purposes. The results of the econometric estimation show that a substantial JS differential exists between the two sectors, in every JS domain and always in favour of public employment. A typical ordered decomposition analysis indicates that about one‐third of the difference in expected JS can be explained by differences in employee characteristics and two‐thirds by unobserved sector‐specific inbuilt features. The comparison of wage reductions, which a representative employee will be prepared to endure in order to avoid employment in the private sector, reveals that the regularity of working schedules is appreciated more than any other facet of JS. The obtained results enhance the existing apparatus for evaluating government policies in the labour market.     

The Dark,and Independent,Side of the Italian Labour Market

Abstract. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the two faces of the Italian labour market, the dark and the regular. Results from ‘exhaustive’ VAR/VEC models suggest that there are no connections (causal relationships, feedback, contemporaneous correlation) between them. In this sense, we could correctly refer to undeclared work as an ‘independent’ side of the market. I interpret these results as providing empirical support for the ineffectiveness of labour policies in converting black economy employment into regular over the last two decades.     

Sources of Job and Worker Flows: Evidence from a Panel of Regions

Abstract. This study explores the structure and the dynamics of regional job and worker flows. The measures of job and worker flows are related to economic fluctuations, demographic factors and industry structure by employing the data of 85 Finnish regions over the period 1988–97. It is shown that labour market dynamics differ markedly between regions. As in previous analyses of linked employer–employee data, job and worker flows are shown to behave cyclically. In addition, the results indicate that observable differences in regional productivity, in‐migration, demographics and industry structure help to explain the prevailing disparities in regional labour markets.     

Action,Reaction and Resignation: How Refugee Women and Support Organisations Respond to Labour Market Integration Challenges during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Even without the impact of a global pandemic, refugee women face obstacles to their integration into the labour market. Complex integration challenges are situated across different, yet interwoven, levels. These include restrictive policies at the institutional level, limited funding for support measures at the organisational level and a lack of skills at the individual level. Many of these are gendered and specifically affect women. Some might be further intensified by Covid-19. However, the pandemic's effect on the labour market integration of refugee women has yet to be explored.This paper examines specific challenges support organisations and refugee women have faced during the pandemic and their responses to these. Following a process perspective, we utilise a qualitative methods approach with semi-structured interviews. We collected our data in Austria, a European country that hosts numerous refugees and has an elaborate support network.Results show that the external shock of the pandemic amplified the importance of developing digital skills to support post-pandemic labour market integration. In addition, the pandemic exacerbated challenges for refugee women and support organisations. This led to ‘action’, ‘reaction’ and ‘resignation’ responses. We discuss these, and provide avenues for further research and practice.     

Mismatch in the West German Labour Market? Economic Restructuring and Unemployment in the 1980s*

Abstract. The paper briefly investigates theoretical arguments for mismatch unemployment; it presents a vacancy-unemployment curve for Germany and investigates various reasons for outward shifts of the curve. Both variables, unemployment and vacancies, are decomposed into flows and duration to identify the underlying processes of these shifts. The analysis of the components with the help of change-duration curves shows adverse trends for unemployment and vacancies over the business cycles. Unemployment duration has increased while vacancy duration has decreased. Mismatch in the labour market can therefore hardly be blamed to have been an obstacle for economic expansion in the German economy during the 1980s. Persistently high unemployment in Germany has to be interpreted as a hysteresis process which was driven by macroeconomic policies, increasing labour supply and restructuring imbedded in the German institutional framework.     

Informal Caregiving and Women's Work Choices: Lessons from the Netherlands

This paper focuses on the effects of Dutch long‐term care and labour market policies on women's labour market participation and informal caregiving decisions. Labour market participation and informal caregiving are estimated jointly through a multivariate dynamic binary probit on European Community Household Panel data. Under Dutch policy, informal care decisions appear to be independent of household non‐labour income and no significant impediment seems to hinder the contemporaneous practice of work activities and care. However, past informal care provision still slightly reduces the probability of currently working and vice versa, leaving room for policy improvements to enhance labour market participation.     

Labour Force Transitions among Married Women in the USA

This paper describes the patterns of labour market transitions for a cohort of married women in the USA drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey and observed between 1968 and 1991. The empirical analysis of labour market movements is motivated by human capital theory augmented by demographic and life-cycle considerations. These movements are investigated by estimating competing risk models of labour force spell duration. The results show that the determinants of spell lengths and the determinants of the reasons for spell terminations vary across labour market states. More importantly, both the labour market state in which an individual is observed over her work cycle and the labour market state to which she moves are relevant in shaping her spell length and her tradeable characteristics in the labour market.     

The Role of Profit Sharing in Dual Labour Markets with Flexible Outsourcing

We combine profit sharing for high‐skilled workers and outsourcing of low‐skilled tasks in a partly imperfect dual domestic labour market, which means that only low‐skilled labour is represented by a labour union. In that framework we analyse how the implementation of profit sharing for high‐skilled workers influences the amount of outsourcing and the labour market outcome for low‐skilled worker. By doing this, we use some specific assumptions, e.g. exponentially increasing outsourcing costs or the wage for low‐skilled workers will be determined by a union whereas the wage for high‐skilled workers is given. Assuming that low‐skilled labour and outsourcing are interchangeable we show that profit sharing has a positive effect on the wage for low‐skilled workers and helps to decrease wage dispersion. However, under these circumstances, profit sharing enhances outsourcing. Concerning the employment effects for high‐ and low‐skilled workers, we show that there is an employment reducing effect due to higher wages for low‐skilled work, which can be offset by higher productivity of highly skilled workers, as the domestic labour inputs complement each other.