Performance of the similarity hypothesis relative to existing models of risky choice

Experimental studies have discovered behavior that is inconsistent with the expected utility model (EU) of risky choice (von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1953). The two approaches to address these paradoxes are tested: generalized expected utility models (GEU) and models incorporating decision-making limits or costs through question similarity. Tests are carried out over risky pairs related to well-known examples from Kahneman and Tversky's (1979) influential work. Statistical analysis reveals that GEU models of choice are significantly violated for choice patterns consistent with the similarity hypothesis. Additional tests point to shortcomings in the similarity approach that are consistent with fanning out behavior.     

Regional Computable General Equilibrium models: A review

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are very popular for analyzing a wide range of policy issues. CGE applications vary from estimating the welfare impact of tax reform and alternative energy policies to the effect of foreign trade reforms, labour markets and employment. CGE models are commonly developed at the country level; however, modified versions of CGE, so called Regional CGE (RCGE) models, can be used at subnational disaggregation to examine impacts studied at the national counterparts on a specific region. RCGE models have grown in popularity as an alternative to the Input-Output (I-O) models, which are regularly used for regional analysis. RCGE models can provide comprehensive information, which make them more desirable analytical models for many researchers. Yet, RCGE models have not yet become a “go-to” for governmental policy practitioners when they are developing regional public policies. This paper reviews the current state of regional CGE models, describes their features, contributions and limitations and surveys some applications of the main three classes of RCGE models: region-specific, bottom-up, and top-down models. This paper concludes that the applications of RCGE are quite variable and flexible, with a new and more complex type of application to be developed with the advancement of computation economics. The paper offers recommendations on the micro, meso and macro conditions that are necessary to increase policy practitioners’ utilization of RCGE models.     

New Models of Contracting in the Public Sector: A Review of Alliance Contracting,Prime Contracting and Outcome‐based Contracting Literature

The coordination of public services is an enduring challenge and an important policy priority. One way to achieve collaboration across organizational boundaries, which is being considered in public services such as the English National Health Service (NHS), is through the adoption of alliance contracting, prime provider contracting and outcome‐based contracting. This article reviews the cross‐sectoral literature concerning the characteristics of these new contractual models, how they function, their impact, and their relation to public sector governance objectives. These new contractual forms are characterized as models which, in line with the New Public Management (NPM)/post‐NPM agenda, seek to incentivize providers through the transfer of risk from the commissioners to the providers of services. Key findings are that the models are likely to incur high transaction costs relating to the negotiation and specification of outcomes and rely heavily on the relational aspects of contracting. There is also found to be a lack of convincing cross‐sectoral evidence of the impact of the models, particularly in relation to improving coordination across organizations. The article questions the reconciliation of the use of these new contractual models in settings such as the English NHS with the requirements of public sector governance for transparency and accountability. The models serve to highlight the problems inherent in the NPM/post‐NPM agenda of the transfer of risk away from commissioners of services in terms of transparency and accountability.     

From the discourse of "the other" to the other discourse: stakeholder-based models of evaluation and the human side of social welfare

Stakeholder-based evaluation models, like predecessor models, respond to issues and concerns identified as evaluation practice has matured. The characteristics of such models are outlined, and the relationships between stakeholder models, social work values, liberal political goals, and feminist theorizing are explored.     

Recurrence in Workers' Compensation Claims: Estimates from a Multiple Spell Hazard Model

This paper estimates both single and multiple spell hazard models using a sample of workers' compensation claims (with soft tissue musculoskeletal injuries) from Ontario, Canada. Most of the results in this paper are consistent with the estimates in the existing literature. However, the duration elasticities for workers' compensation benefits and pre-injury earnings from the multiple spell hazard models are much larger than the estimates from the single spell models. This suggests that the estimates in existing literature that use single spell hazard models may underestimate the effect of benefits and pre-injury earnings on the duration of soft tissue musculoskeletal claims.     

Optimal insurance without expected utility: The dual theory and the linearity of insurance contracts

Models of the insurance markets and institutions are routinely based on expected utility. Since EU is being challenged by an increasing number of decision models, we examine whether EU-based models are robust in their predictions. To do so, we rework some basic models of optimal insurance contracts and equilibrium using the “dual” theory to EU of Yaari. When there is a single, insurable source of risk, dual theory permits only corner solutions if the contract itself is linear. This contrasts sharply with EU. Nonlinearity, and thereby the possibility of interior solutions, is introduced in two ways. First, the contract itself is nonlinear, i.e., a deductible insurance policy. Or second, the decision maker is subject to some background risk such as uninsurable risky assets or default of the insurer. When decision problems are subject to nonlinearity, the predictions on optimal insurance are more similar to, though not identical with, those generated with EU.     

Understanding the September 11 Terrorist Attack on America: The Role of Intergroup Theories of Normative Influence

The present article analyzes the September 11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in terms of current theories of normative influence in intergroup conflict. The (conflicting) implications of various social psychological models of decision making for Western and American attempts to reduce the likelihood of further attacks are delineated. We examine the implications of social identity models and models of outgroup normative influence, as well as dynamic models of intergroup behavior that focus on the polarizing effects of outgroup hostility. The influence of Western responses is distinguished for various target audiences, including not only the terrorists, but also pro-Western Muslims in North America and Europe, unaligned Muslims, and Muslims with anti-American feelings who do not endorse terrorism.     

Conceptualising service integration for inclusive activation: Exploring transferal and translation of models from health care

Conceptual frameworks are important for advancing systematic understanding in a field of research. Many conceptual models have been developed to study service integration, but few have addressed activation. Based on an outline of the literature on the integration of labour market services, we explored two complementary conceptual models from integrated care and assessed whether the models could be transferred to the context of inclusive activation. The transferral of conceptual models is contingent upon whether the significant features of inclusive activation are like those of health care, and whether barriers to integrated labour market services are considered. We argue that the models facilitate a more analytical focus on service integration. Nevertheless, the models must be adjusted to account for the significant position of workplaces and employers, the importance of frontline professionals' knowledge base, the co-production of service provision and the values characterising the service encounters.     

Training and the Earnings of Immigrant Males: Evidence from the Canadian Workplace and Employee Survey*

Objective. To improve on the existing research on earnings differentials between visible minority immigrants and the native‐born, and on the role of discrimination in producing that difference. To do this we introduce into the analysis: (1) access to training and (2) training effects on earnings growth. Method. Using a panel data set containing information on training we test cross‐sectional models of access to training, cross‐sectional models of wage determination, and panel models of wage growth. Results. Visible minority immigrants are disadvantaged in both access to training and earnings; education reduces the disadvantage; and they do better than the other two groups in wage growth. Conclusions. Some results are consistent with a discrimination interpretation but, considered together, the complete sets of results are difficult to reconcile with any relatively straightforward discrimination account.     

On the Intuition of Rank-Dependent Utility

Among the most popular models for decision under risk and uncertainty are the rank-dependent models, introduced by Quiggin and Schmeidler. Central concepts in these models are rank-dependence and comonotonicity. It has been suggested that these concepts are technical tools that have no intuitive or empirical content. This paper describes such contents. As a result, rank-dependence and comonotonicity become natural concepts upon which preference conditions, empirical tests, and improvements in utility measurement can be based. Further, a new derivation of the rank-dependent models is obtained. It is not based on observable preference axioms or on empirical data, but naturally follows from the intuitive perspective assumed. We think that the popularity of the rank-dependent theories is mainly due to the natural concepts used in these theories.     

The notion of character friendship and the cultivation of virtue

Most theories about virtue cultivation fall under the general umbrella of the role model approach, according to which virtue is acquired by emulating role models, and where those role models are usually conceived of as superior in some relevant respect to the learners. I argue that although we need role models to cultivate virtue, we also need good and close relationships with people who are not our superiors. The overemphasis on role models is misguided and misleading, and a good antidote draws on the Aristotelian concept of character friendship. Character friendship (a) constitutes a unique form of experience in which we share a substantial way of seeing with a close other; (b) facilitates a unique form of knowledge, the knowledge of a particular person (my‐self and the other's self); (c) develops other emotions important for virtue cultivation besides admiration, such as love, shame, trust, and hope; and (d) is a praxis in which cooperative interactions and discussions function as a bridge between habituation of virtue at home and the public life. Character friendship provides necessary elements for human cultivation of virtue that the sole experience of having a role model does not.     

中国政治发展:理论与实践的双重变奏

中国改革实践与中国政治发展理论研究处于双向互动之中。近十年来,中国政治发展研究的核心问题集中在中国政治发展理论框架的构建、中国政治发展一些重大问题的宏观探讨和中国政治发展时政热点的分析上。民主政治模式、新制度主义模式和治理模式是中国政治发展研究所形成的主要理论解释模型,实现“善治”与“和谐”是中国政治发展的战略目标,而转变政府职能、实现政府创新、推广基层民主、加强执政党建设则可以被视为实现发展目标的重要步骤。     

Differential Models of Social Work Groups with Family Violence

This paper examines the research literature on multiple forms of family violence and proposes three social work group models to apply to this widespread phenomenon. The models proposed are group work with wife abusers, groups of reciprocated violent marital dyads and multiple violent family unit groups. The theoretical approach of each model is discussed as well as group composition, goals, tasks, structure, relational-interactional systems, worker role and means of service delivery. Important problems in group development of each model are identified and suggestions for worker intervention are outlined.     

Hours of work offered by nurses

How do registered nurses balance the number of hours they work against their other commitments? This article begins by challenging the common assertion that “there is a nursing shortage.” This subjective “needs” approach ignores economic theory. Instead, two economic models are useful: Arrow-Capron and the Archibald Monopsony models. These models are applied to a survey of 644 nurses in Nebraska, concluding that there is a nursing shortage because hospitals do not pay high enough wages.     

MODELS OF INTERVENTION IN WORK WITH GROUPS

Three models of social work intervention are presented with a focus on worker-client interaction and the conceptual frame of reference for these models. The essential features and contemporary practices of each model are reviewed, as well as implications for achieving a consistent practice orientation. The reader is asked to locate his/her stance in order to work toward an internally consistent practice in working with groups.     

Coping With the Jewish-Arab Conflict: A Comparison Among Three Models

Three models are surveyed and compared with regard to their efficacy in promoting change in intergroup attitudes and relations, particularly in Israel's Jewish-Arab relationships: the contact model, the information model, and the metacognitive model. The first two models have been widely applied to intergroup conflict, including the Jewish-Arab situation, but both have faced some serious problems. Proposed as an alternative, the metacognitive model could address problems faced by the contact and information models. The article discusses the theoretical aspects and practical applications of the model, and proposes how it can be combined with the contact and information models in order to increase the efficacy of coping with intractable cases of intergroup relations such as the Jewish-Arab conflict.     

试析人工神经网络运用于社会统计分析中的可能性

社会统计分析是社会研究方法中十分重要的一部分,因为定量研究所得的原始资料在经过审核、整理与汇总之后,需要进行科学系统的统计分析,才能揭示出研究资料所包含的众多信息,从而得出研究的结论。在多元统计分析方法中,研究者用得比较多的是多元线性回归分析、方差分析、log线性模型、probit模型及logistic回归分析,这些分析方法能够帮助我们对数据进行简化、对变量之间的相互依赖关系进行分析,以及根据模型进行预测。但上述方法也存在着一定的使用局限性,比如,方差分析法要假定进行均值比较的总体具有相同的方差和服从正态分布,如果不符合…     

A triple test for behavioral economics models and public health policy

We propose a triple test to evaluate the usefulness of behavioral economics models for public health policy. Test 1 is whether the model provides reasonably new insights. Test 2 is on whether these have been properly applied to policy settings. Test 3 is whether they are corroborated by evidence. We exemplify by considering the cases of social interactions models, self-control models and, in relation to health message framing, prospect theory. Out of these sets of models, only a correctly applied prospect theory fully passes the tests at present. Specifically, in broad agreement with the evidence, a gain frame has positive implications for welfare encourages disease prevention activity, though this does not apply if the perceived probability of the bad health outcome is large enough. We see our tests as being useful to identify how much health policy weight policy makers should assign to specific behavioral economic models; they are also useful to verify what next steps would be most useful in further research.     

An axiomatization of cumulative prospect theory

This paper presents a method for axiomatizing a variety of models for decision making under uncertainty, including Expected Utility and Cumulative Prospect Theory. This method identifies, for each model, the situations that permit consistent inferences about the ordering of value differences. Examples of rankdependent and sign-dependent preference patterns are used to motivate the models and the “tradeoff consistency” axioms that characterize them. The major properties of the value function in Cumulative Prospect Theory—diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion—are contrasted with the principle of diminishing marginal utility that is commonly assumed in Expected Utility.     

Computable general equilibrium models for trade policy analysis in developing countries: A survey

This paper surveys the contributions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models designed to quantify the implications of alternative trade policy scenarios in developing countries. The paper starts with a review of the basic structure of CGE models, using a one-sector model with product differentiation on the import and export side. The basic properties of CGE models are established and a series of applications to trade policy, internal-external balance and growth, and intertemporal issues are discussed.