An analysis of the fertility of Chinese women]

The 1982 census provided detailed information on fertility in China. It recorded 20,689,704 births in 1981, producing a birth rate of 2.1%, a decrease, respectively, of 43% and more than 50% in comparison with 1952 and 1963. The birth rate has varied widely over the last 30 years, from 3.6% in the early 1950's, to 1.8% in 1961, after a planned birth program was begun, to a record high of 3.7% in 1962 following the economic recovery, to 3.3% in 1970, after a gradual decline through the 1960's. By 1981 the birth rate had declined to 2.1%, clearly resulting from the intense planned fertility promotion begun in the early 1970's. In the mid- and late 50's, urban birth rate was consistently higher than rural, with the mass move to the cities at the beginning of the People's Republic. General economic development after 1957 brought simultaneous declines of both urban and rural rates, both reaching a low point in 1961. Age structure of the population also has an influence, depending on the proportion of childbearing women in the population. In 1981, the fertility of China's childbearing women was 8.3%, lower than that of the developing countries, but higher than the developed countries. By age group, the fertility rates reached 14.7% and 23.9% respectively in women between 20-24 and 25-29 years of age; the legal marriage age is 20. The fertility rate in large cities is generally lower than that of provinces. Higher educational and socio-economic level also exert an inverse influence on fertility rates; in low socio-economic areas the rate reached 3.5%, and in more advanced areas it was held to 2.2%. In all professions with the exception of agriculture, fishing, and forestry, the percentage of families with 1 child was 81.8%. Since planned fertility was implemented, the overall fertility rate has dropped from 3% to 2%. China's fertility mode has changed to that of developed countries, with high intensity between 20 and 29 years of age. Appropriate measures should be taken to lower the fertility rate in different regions.     

Cultural change and attitude change: An assessment of postrevolutionary marriage and family attitudes in Iran

This report is aimed at investigating beliefs and intentions of Iranian adolescents regarding marriage and family building approximately four years after the Islamic Revolution, which brought substantial political and cultural changes. Differences associated with gender and parental education were found in beliefs and intentions regarding marriage and family building. Also, the sample seemed to hold more traditional cultural values than did a comparable prerevolutionary sample of youth who were from the same geographical location and were of the same sex and parental educational background. However, it was found that even the groups from the lowest educational background showed some degree of nontraditional attitudes and intentions regarding marriage and family. Interpreting the findings in light of cultural observations and attitude change theory, it is argued that a certain degree of real attitude change has occurred, and is continuing, in the nontraditional direction among educated youth.     

The situation concerning marriage and births among childbearing women in Shaanxi province]

The results of a 1978 survey of 10 percent of the population of Shaanxi province, China, are presented. The survey contained questions on selected demographic characteristics of childbearing women. Data are included on marriage patterns, divorce, widowhood, fertility, and number of living children. Abbreviated life tables for both sexes for the province are also included.     

Economic analysis of same-sex marriage

This article applies the neoclassical microeconomic analysis of marriage as developed by Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker to same-sex marriage. The objective is to demonstrate that the economic analysis of marriage supports allowing same-sex marriage, and that same-sex marriages would strengthen the incentive to marry, increase the efficiency of marriage markets, provide for more children to be raised in two-parent optimum environments, and benefit states economically overall. The article concludes with an overview of the economic impact of same-sex marriages on states based on the analysis, data and fiscal information currently available from researchers and economists in the field.     

Economic opportunities,marriage squeezes and the propensity to marry: An economic analysis of period marriage rates in England and Wales

An economic model of the decision to marry has been developed by Gary Becker and is now part of the ‘new home economics’. From it one can deduce that the propensity to marry is a function of the relative earning capacities of men and women, the relative scarcity of unmarried persons of the opposite sex and real income. The effects of changes in these variables on the annual first marriage rates of men aged 16–19, 20–24 and 25–29 and women aged 16–19 and 20–24 respectively are estimated over the post-war period. It is found that women's earning capacity relative to men's has a particularly strong negative effect on marriage rates, and that the decline in first marriage rates during the 1970s was primarily attributable to the growing economic opportunities for women. As demographic studies have suggested, the relative numbers of bachelors and spinsters of particular ages (‘marriage squeezes’) also have a significant impact, and there is evidence of substitution in the ages of marriage partners in response to such ‘squeezes’. The income elasticity of marriage is only found to be significant among men below age 25 and women below age 20, and it increases as we move down the age distribution. This suggests the ‘liquidity constraints’ influence the timing of marriage among young people. In sum, this economic model is able to account for over 90 per cent of the post-war variation in young persons' marriage rates.     

Preliminary inquiry into changes among women in mountainous regions with regard to marriage and birth]

Research objectives were in China study the changes in marriage, birth, and birth and birth control of mountain women in the last 43 years. The methodology used was random sampling. The sample was taken based on 1% of the agricultural population. The findings show that the unmarried rate of women is currently very low. Remarriage occurs because of the loss of a spouse rather than divorce. Early marriage occurs more frequently with mountain women since they have gradually strayed from the traditional belief of marrying only once. Within the last 40 years, the average age when one married has gradually increased. The percentage of early marriages has decreased and the percentage of late marriages has increased. Prior to 1975, the birth rate was high and now it has decreased. The decrease in the birth rate in 1960 was due to natural disasters; however, the current decreases in the birth rate are due to family planning. The major factors influencing marriage of mountain farmers and birth rate are traditional feudalistic influences, economic life, marriage laws, population policies, culture, and education. The survey was conducted from August 1982 to April 1983. There were 20,174 women ranging from the ages of 15-67 who participated. Findings show that the majority of the unmarried women are now under the age of 25. The percentage of 1st marriages under the legal age reached 2.89%. The average 1st marriage age of women in the 1940s was 19.03. Between 1980-1982 it was 22.30, an increase of 3.27 years since 1940. The percentage of 1st marriages under the age of 18 in the 1940s was 35.96%. It decreased to 2.28% in 1980. The rate of 1st marriages over the age of 23 before 1970 remained approximately 5%. It increased to 56.84% in the early 1980s. The traditional feudalistic influences have greatly affected marriage of mountain farmers. The ratio of more than 1 child per couple reached a rate of over 40%. The improvement of economic life also increased the aggregate birth rate. It reached 7 in the 1950s. With the emphasis no longer on marriage laws and population policies but on family planning, the early marriage rate decreased to below 15% from a previous rate of 40%.     

Educational attainment and the transition to first marriage among Japanese women

I use data from a large nationally representative survey to examine the relationship between women's educational attainment and the timing of first marriage in Japan. The results indicate that later marriage for highly educated women primarily reflects longer enrollment in school, that university education is increasingly associated with later and less marriage, and that the trend toward later and less marriage is occurring at all levels of educational attainment. These findings are consistent, albeit weakly, with the argument that higher education should be negatively associated with marriage only in countries in which gender relations make it particularly difficult for women to balance work and family.     

An analysis of marital status]

In the 1980 census, a special investigation was conducted in Wuxi City on the marital status of the local population above the age of fifteen. The investigation covered detailed information concerning those married, divorced, single, and widowed. Results from this investigation show that more men are single than women, and more men are also widowed. In part this is because the average age for husband is older than his wife and the death rate higher is for men than women. Data show that the popular marriage age is between 25 and 29, evidence of a general trend toward late marr iage. In the area of the divorce rate, the rate for women in the city is higher than that in the countryside. The divorce rate for men is higher in the countryside than in the city. In the rate of being single through a lifetime, the rate for men in the countryside is higher than that in the city. This situation shows that in the countryside, because of the poor geographical and economic condition, men suffer from their marriage status. Generally speaking, the divorce rate in China is still lower than that of Western countries and the marital status in China remains more stable. The marital status is influenced by many factors, such as the social and economic situation, customs and habits, religious beliefs, profession, and educational and cultural levels. The collection of information regarding the marital status is useful for analysis of the birthrate and population forecast.     

Economic analysis of age at first marriage

A subject of great interest to demographers is to relate the timing of demographic events to individual characteristics and environmental variables. Static models of marriage tend to give corner solutions, the choice of marriage or remaining single. This article develops an economic model of marriage which gives interior solutions to the optimum age at first marriage and which does not include an explicit argument about the age at marriage in the utility function. In theoretical analysis, life cycle model is modified to capture different aspects of the decision of when to get married. Results from empirical analysis support implications derived from the theoretical analysis.     

The influence of women’s work opportunities on marriage rates

Several authors have argued that increased work opportunities for women have helped to produce a reduction in the average age at marriage in the United States. This paper tests this proposition on data for the 100 largest SMSA's in 1960. Using ordinary least-squares regression, we find that areas of relatively attractive female employment opportunities had relatively low proportions of women ever married in the age interval 22-24. Other variables significantly related to the proportion married in an SMSA are its sex ratio, percent Catholic, and number of inhabitants. A decline in the sex ratio and improvements in female employment opportunities appear to have been equally influential in producing declines in proportions married between 1960 and 1970.     

The continuation of education after marriage among women in the United States: 1970

Data from the 1970 National Fertility Study are used to assess the extent and determinants of post-nuptial education among women in the United States. Over one-fifth of all women have attended high school or college since marriage; over one-third either have returned to school or anticipate returning to an academic institution sometime in the future. This phenomenon is apparently increasing since women married less than five years have already attended school in as great a proportion as women married 15-19 years. Examination of differentials reveals for both blacks and whites that post-nupital education is higher among women who: (1) attended college before marriage, (2) married early, (3) are currently separated or divorced, (4) support egalitarian sex-role attitudes, or (5) whose most recent occupation is in the professional, managerial, or administrative category. Post-nuptial trends in education undoubtedly reflect the much broader social phenomenon of changing sex-role perceptions.     

A fertility analysis of New Zealand marriage cohorts

New Zealand annual returns of non-Maori live legitimate births 1913 to 1955 were tabulated longitudinally by marriage duration and birth order. The figures were used as numerators of fertility rates of forty marriage cohorts, specific for duration and birth order ; the twenty-four oldest cohorts had virtually completed fertility. For the denominators of the rates, the cohorts of initial size (estimated by a method similar to that described by P. H. Karmel) were survived by observing changes over time through divorce, death, widowhood, war-widowhood, and net external migration. The aim was to provide a set of data of the best possible approximation on variations of cohort fertility.

Total cohort rates, cumulated for twenty years’ duration of marriage, and segmental rates of relevant sub-periods are given for parities o to 7+. Total rates of the cohorts of completed fertility yielded values of family size, and were also used for parity progression ratios (by L. Henry’s formula). Segmental rates permitted a study of changes in timing maternities.

The analysis, which needs as a corollary a nuptiality analysis, is concerned, so far with past experience. It confirms the decline in number and proportion of large families. Both the parity progression ratios, and segmental rates of cohorts of as yet incomplete fertility, suggest some recent recovery in three- and fourchild families. For total fertility, such recovery might even be more significant than the observed decline in large families. On the other hand, birth-order specific changes in timing suggest lengthening of intervals among older cohorts as a trend upon which is superimposed the fluctuation due to postponement of, and recovery of a portion of postponed maternities. A construction of hypothetical timing patterns for incomplete cohorts by a simplified method of projection does not lead very far without support of observations on spacing that differentiate for family size.     

An analysis of the fertility transition in developing countries]

Most developing countries are in the demographic stage of early mortality, high birth rates and high rates of natural population increase. A characteristic of developing countries is that after World War ii, particularly since the 1960s fertility rates are on the decline, even though they still remain high. The fertility rate of developed countries fell from a 1950 rate of 22.9/1000 to 15/1000 in 1982, a decrease of 34.5%, whereas the fertility rate of developing countries hovered around 43/1000 between 1930-1950, 40.6/1000 during the 1960s and 33/1000 in 1982. Between 1950 and 1982 there was a decrease of 24.8%. But the main reason for this decrease is the decline in the last 20 years of the fertility rates of China and India, whose rates fell 34.9% from 1960-1980. Changes in fertility rates are influenced by the age structure of a country, as seen in the changing age structure of developing countries from 1960-80. For example, an increase in fertility rates was 1 consequence of an increase in the number of fertile women aged 15-45 from 42.6% in 1960 to 44.4% in 1980. Nevertheless, there exists some sort of birth control, whether conscious or subconscious, because the number of births per fertile woman is 3-4 fewer than the 14-15 children a woman can theoretically bear. The reason for changes in fertility rates in developing countries can be traced to marriage and family customs, and even more important, to social and economic factors. For example, Asian, African and Latin American cultures tend to support early marriages. When the fertility rates of developed and developing countries are looked at for a comparable period, then the rate of decrease for developing countries is slower than developed countries. But, if the comparison is made for a transitional period (i.e., industrialization), then the rate of decrease for developing countries is faster than for developed countries. Currently there are 25 developing countries that have attained a fertility rate of 25/1000 or lower, and 52 developing countries with a rate of 35/1000.     

An analysis of the 1987 population situation in China]

Presented here is an analysis of some of the manually collected data from a 1% random sample of China's population taken on 7/1/87. 1)Population growth: The population grew 6.36% from 1982-87 to give a total population of 1,072,330,000. Even though the average annual growth rate of 1.24% during these years is slower than the growth rate of the 1950s and 1960s, this does not mean that China can be complacent about it. Due to China's large population base, every year its population increases by about 13,000,000, with serious implications for consumerism, education and labor. The natural rate of growth dropped during 1982-84, but by 1987, it had increased again to 1981 levels. If China is to limit its population to 1.25 billion by 2000, the average annual growth rate must remain below 1.23%, which is lower than the figures of recent years. 2) Sex differences: the population was 51.1% male and 48.9% female. 3) Age structure: 28.68% of the population were 14 years and younger; 65.86% were between 15-64 years; 5.46% were 65 years and older. The median age was 24.2 years. The percentage of the 0-14 year bracket dropped about 7.6% from 1953-87, while the 15-64 year olds increased 6.6% and the 65 years and older group increased 1%. On the surface, a 1% increase of the aged would not present a problem to China taken as a whole. However, when densely populated areas such as Shanghai are looked at, the situation demands immediate attention. 4) Ethnic groups: 92% of the population were Han. Minorities increased 5% annually between 1982-87 to comprise 8% of the population. This rapid growth among minorities is due in part to official permission for families to bear more than one child, and to better sanitary and medical attention. 6) Population distribution: 37.1% of the population lived in urban areas, as compared with 10% in 1949. By 1990 the urban population could reach 40%, creating serious social, economic and political pressure on cities.     

An analysis of population growth in Romania]

After liberation in Romania the high birth rate, high mortality rate, and high population growth rate pattern changed to a low birth rate, low mortality rate, and low growth rate pattern. Higher standard of living and educational level, the increasing involvement of women in social and economic activities, the rapid development of cities, and the lower infant mortality rate are the 4 main factors responsible for this development. Consequently, Romania is facing a problem of increasing labor shortages. People who would otherwise be in the labor force are in school to allow the rapid development in science and technology. The increasing proportion of older retirees in the population also decreases the labor supply. Agricultural mechanization has provided labor to support industrialization in the past. Future increases will emphasize irrigation and soil improvement rather than mechanization. The Romanian government has established 6 new laws to stimulate population growth. First, award bonuses to families with more children and tax childless couples. Second, eliminate factors destabilizing families, preference to young couples, and restrict abortion and divorce. Third, protect women's societal rights through bonuses to mothers and paid maternity leave to pregnant women. Fourth, reduce mortality rate and improve people's health and life span. Fifth, better utilize the labor force and redistribute the population by economic methods. Six, use longterm procedures to achieve the best population structure and to have a younger population.     

The family planning work as suggested by analysis of the age at first marriage in Jiaxing Prefecture, Zhejiang Province]

Since 1970 when the big push for family planning began, China advocated late marriages. In general, the age for late marriage for female peasants is 23 years and 25 for males; for urban females and males, it is 25 and 27 years, respectively. In 1981 the New Marriage Law stipulated the age at marriage to be 20 years for females and 22 for males (these ages are lower than the ages advocated for marriage in actual practice). Despite the New Marriage Law, however, there was in 1981 an increase in the number of people who married before attaining the "late marriage age," thereby creating problems in family planning work. Since 1981, early marriages have been an increasing phenomenon (for the purposes of this essay, age at early marriage is 23 years for females and 25 for males). Jiaxing Prefecture had a 460.53% increase from 1979 to 1981 in the number of women who married early. The following findings were based on studies of Tungxiang and Pinghu Countries. Early marriages as well as "regular" marriages have increased greatly, with early marriage exceeding the number of other marriages. Urban marriages are far more moderate in number than rural marriages, partly because family planning work in urban areas is more effective. Early marriage in areas where family planning work was effective is less extreme than in areas where family planning work was ineffective. Findings from Kayuan Commune of Tungxiang County shows that 47.8% of all male marriages in 1981 were early marriages, as opposed to 6.3% in 1980. The average age for men at marriage in 1981 was 1.6 years younger than in 1980, and .75 years younger for females. Undoubtedly the New Marriage Law influenced the trend in early marriages, but the main reason is that the agarian economy is backwards. Further, traditional attitudes (e.g., "the sooner the children come the sooner the riches come") prevail.     

Probability of marriage and fertility of women suffering from schizophrenia or affective disorders

Abstract Schizophrenia and affective disorders are the main forms of severe mental illness among women of childbearing age; earlier this century European and American studies showed that the fertility of these patients was reduced. Since the second world war the development of community-orientated psychiatry appears to have resulted in a lessening of differentials between patients and normal women. The present study was designed to estimate probability of marriage and fertility of such patients in London followingthese developments in psychiatry. Over 1,000women aged 16-50 were selected from 1955-63 admissions to a London hospital, and data were collected from medical records. Owing to the demographic heterogeneity of the sample, the analysis of maximum discriminative power was to compare each patient with a normal woman of corresponding age, observed during identical calendar periods, as derived from Registrar General's estimates. The fertility of each patient was compared with that of a normal woman, controlled for age at and duration of marriage, and an assessment was made of the effect of hospital stay on fertility. Before admission, probability of marriage of schizophrenics was just under three-quarters of that of normal women, and after admission this was greatly reduced to just over one-third of normal; women with affective disorders were very similar to normal women as regards probability of marriage, and also fertility. The fertility of schizophrenics was reduced both before and after admission, and much of the latter reduction depended on the effect of hospital stay; however, this fertility differential was too small to be clinically or socially important. The relevance of these results to the population genetics of schizophrenia is noted. Affective disorders are primarily disorders of mood, usually involving a depression, but in a smaller group of patients periods of excitement or elation involving marked overactivity of thought and behaviour. The patient may return to normal between these periods of illness, and although delusions and hallucinations sometimes occur they are usually less prominent than in schizophrenia. Affective disorders generally become evident later in life than schizophrenia, and they often require shorter periods of in-patient treatment, and the medical prognosis is often more hopeful. The expectation of affective psychoses (the most severe forms of the disorder) for a member of the general population varies between 0·3 and 1% from country to country. Milder conditions have also been included in this study, and the expectation of all these affective disorders is likely to be much higher.     

Studying the fertility peak in Beijing]

Beijing, China, is experiencing a baby boom in response to 2 periods of large population increase in the mid-1950s and early 1960s. The average number of annual births was 220,000 in the first period and 269,000 in the second period. The causes of the large increase in the population in the first period were an improvement of health conditions which led to a reduction in mortality, immigration flow, and an erroneous population policy. The causes in the second period were recuperative fertility after three years of natural calamity and increased fertility among immigrants. Net migration had an important role in population growth these two periods; it also will have an important impact in future population changes. According to population projections, another baby boom is expected to occur before the end of the end of the century. During the up-coming baby boom period, 1.54 million births are expected, 190,000 per annum. The average increase in population size is expected to 127,000 per year. In the peak year, it may be around 200,000. Thanks to the family planning (FP) program the occurrence of the third baby boom in Beijing has been postponed and the duration will be shortened. From 1972 to 1982, 2.57 million births was averted due to FP, which drastically reduced pressure on the demand for resources and on the momentum of the next baby boom. Another baby booms is not expected during the early half of the 21st century, although an elevated birth rate within the range of normal fluctuation is predicted. The projection was based on the assumption of restricted migration and the enforcement of the FP program. The realization of the projected population will depend on deferred marriage, deferred child-bearing, prolonged birth spacing, the prevention of high parity fertility, the maintenance of the current population policy, and control over the reproductive behavior of the new migrant population.