A Decision-Theoretic Valuation of Information in Sealed-Bid Auctions for Items of Known Value

This paper considers the question of how much time and effort should be spent in preparing a bid for a single item of known value sold at a first-price sealed-bid auction. A decision-theoretic approach to this bid decision summarizes the decision maker's knowledge of the competitive environment through his or her subjective probability distribution of the highest competing bid. Research activities such as collecting and analyzing bid histories are efforts to obtain additional information that reduces the uncertainty in the highest competing bid. The decision-theoretic concepts of expected value of perfect and imperfect information are used to place an economic value on such research activities. The results presented allow the decision maker to quantify the expected value of imperfect information when the uncertainty is normally distributed. The results show that additional research is most valuable prior to auctions the bidder expects to win.     

Comparing Experimental Designs for Benchmark Dose Calculations for Continuous Endpoints

The BMD (benchmark dose) method that is used in risk assessment of chemical compounds was introduced by Crump (1984) and is based on dose-response modeling. To take uncertainty in the data and model fitting into account, the lower confidence bound of the BMD estimate (BMDL) is suggested to be used as a point of departure in health risk assessments. In this article, we study how to design optimum experiments for applying the BMD method for continuous data. We exemplify our approach by considering the class of Hill models. The main aim is to study whether an increased number of dose groups and at the same time a decreased number of animals in each dose group improves conditions for estimating the benchmark dose. Since Hill models are nonlinear, the optimum design depends on the values of the unknown parameters. That is why we consider Bayesian designs and assume that the parameter vector has a prior distribution. A natural design criterion is to minimize the expected variance of the BMD estimator. We present an example where we calculate the value of the design criterion for several designs and try to find out how the number of dose groups, the number of animals in the dose groups, and the choice of doses affects this value for different Hill curves. It follows from our calculations that to avoid the risk of unfavorable dose placements, it is good to use designs with more than four dose groups. We can also conclude that any additional information about the expected dose-response curve, e.g., information obtained from studies made in the past, should be taken into account when planning a study because it can improve the design.     

The lost art of planning

The purpose of this article is to present and illustrate planning as a generic and highly skilled activity. Central to this approach is a clear understanding of the objective of planning as reflected in the definition of the problem to be dealt with. It is the ability to make this essential judgement of ends and means that constitutes the ‘lost art’ of planning. Four distinct types of problems are identified: simple problems, compound problems, complex problems and meta-problems. This typology is used to show how the nature of what is to be planned determines how far planning can be expected to help and how best to go about doing it. A detailed example is provided to illustrate how a problem can be made more or less ‘manageable’ and the advantages and disadvantages that this entails. Finally, four different strategies are outlined for dealing with each of the four types of problems.     

Social Security Wealth and Retirement Decisions in Italy

Abstract. This paper uses administrative data to study the retirement decisions of Italian private‐sector non‐agricultural employees during the period 1977–97. Our analysis tries to assess the importance of the financial incentives built into the social security system. The basic idea is very simple: at any given age, and based on the available information, workers compare the expected present value of two alternatives: retiring today or working one more year, and then choose the best one. A key role in this kind of comparisons is played by social security wealth, whose level and changes reflect the expectations about the profile of future earnings and the institutional features of the social security system. The various incentive measures that we consider differ in the precise weight given to the social security wealth that workers accrue as they continue to work. Our model does not provide a structural representation of the retirement process. A worker's decision is modeled here following a ‘quasi reduced‐form’ approach, with the incentive measures entering as predictors of the worker's choice in addition to standard variables. The estimated models are then used to predict retirement probabilities under alternative policies that change social security wealth and derived incentive measures.     

Leadership and Effectiveness in the Context of Gender: The Role of Leaders' Verbal Behaviour*

This field study focuses on verbal consideration, which is a leadership behaviour that expresses esteem for the follower and her or his work, knowledge and opinion. It was assumed that the relationship between verbal consideration and various outcomes is moderated by the leader's gender. One‐hundred‐and‐forty leaders and 455 of their direct followers were surveyed in a one‐wave questionnaire study in Germany. Male and female leaders showed the same degree of verbal consideration as rated by their followers. Verbal consideration is related to three out of four outcome variables for both sexes. One unexpected moderating effect of leaders' gender was found: followers of male leaders displaying verbal consideration report less ‘irritation’ (a state of exhaustion considered a threat to good task fulfilment). One explanation may be that male leaders get ‘extra credit’ for showing verbal consideration as it may be thought to entail special effort, whereas for female leaders it may be seen as normal and routine. This assumption should be examined in further studies in order to get more information about the different mechanisms by which female and male leaders reach the same quality of outcomes.     

The Problems of Effecting Change Within the British Civil Service: A Cultural Perspective

This paper examines the relatively unexplored area of underachievement in organization change programmes, where the original ambitions of the authors of change fail to be realized at the level of implementation. A case in point is the British Civil Service which after several years of government endeavour has not seen the large-scale, ‘second order’ change that had been expected. The paper offers a cultural perspective on this issue. Using the findings from an in-depth, ethnographic study of one of the newly formed agencies within the civil service, it argues that attempts at change can be frustrated by a ‘cultural infrastructure’ at the local level which acts to neutralize any attempt to change from above - in relative power terms a case of David defeating Goliath. This structure is a social defence against the anxieties and ambiguities brought about by the threat of impending change, and is manifested not as resistance, or even avoidance, but disregard and unstudied indifference. These local cultural orientations are the cause of ‘schematic myopia’ (Harris, 1989) or collective blindness, which prevent those affected from recognizing the significance of a major change initiative. An examination of these cultural processes reveals the inherent weaknesses and limitations of one of the most ubiquitous of change models to be found in organizations today: the top-down, ‘invasionary’ approach to change.     

Criteria for the selection of reporting method

Identification of optimal reporting method by analysis requires that a criterion be available for selecting those ‘best’ practices which are to act as the norms for standardisation. ‘Predictive ability’ has been suggested as such a criterion. This article argues that ‘predictive ability’ should be rejected in favour of an overriding economic criterion for the design of reporting methods and information systems. An information system is only valuable as part of a wider system. This article proposes that the wider system in which we are interested must be ‘more valuable’ in contemplation of change than without it, if changes in information systems are to be justified.     

Information is Power: Public Disclosure of Information in the Planning Decision-Making Process

The legitimacy and effectiveness of community engagement in planning lies in the extent to which the public can access the information required for informed decision-making. The control of ‘commercially sensitive material’ by local authorities acting as gatekeepers is a therefore a challenging area of information management within the planning application process. Through the analysis of key cases in England, this paper identifies that regulations do provide for ‘commercially sensitive material’ to be released to communities in many cases, but there is a need to achieve better transparency for communities about what information should be available about a development proposal.     

Organizational Change and the Importance of Embedded Assumptions*

‘Managing change’ appears a simple enough term. However, no common ontological assumption underlies either the notion of ‘managing’ or that of ‘change’. In this paper, we identify different assumptions about both what it means to manage and the nature of change outcomes. From these assumptions we derive six different images of managing organizational change: directing, navigating, caretaking, coaching, interpreting and nurturing. We show how each image is underpinned by different organization theories. We then take each image and show how the differing ontological assumptions about managing and change outcomes are associated with different research agendas. We illustrate this by focusing on three elements commonly associated with managing organizational change: vision, communication and resistance.     

Mitigating the environmental and social footprint of brownfields: The case for a peripheral CSR approach

Industrial plant closures create a largely unexplored challenge for corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy. Such plant closures lead to brownfield sites: economic assets and large pieces of land that often cannot be redeployed for alternative purposes, except by incurring significant costs. The direct effects of plant closures typically include a rise in unemployment and value chain disturbance (or dismantling), but brownfields are usually also associated with additional social effects and environmental pollution. Here, a proactive CSR strategy means reducing or mitigating the joint, negative social and environmental footprint of industrial plant closures beyond what is mandated by law (which has tended primarily to address direct effects). We assess the various strategies firms can pursue to mitigate negative, post-closure footprints and we distinguish between two alternative strategic options beyond the ‘legal obligations’ approach, namely the ‘core business related’ (core) CSR approach, and the ‘peripheral CSR’ approach. We explore the case of a plant closure by Bekaert S.A., a large, Belgian industrial firm, which adopted a peripheral CSR approach to manage and redevelop a brownfield site. In this context, we identify four enabling conditions for peripheral CSR to be implemented effectively.     

Dynamic Models for the Time Series of Industrial Conflict in the Labour Market

ABSTRACT: In the aim to investigate the behaviour of some indicators for the industrial conflict and to detect the relation between such variables and the cost of labour in Italy, this paper suggests the use of Box-Jenkins’time series analysis. By fitting a different stochastic process for each series, it can be shown that every indicator gives a different kind of information about the industrial conflict, so that they can't be indifferently substituted by each other. In a second step, cross correlation function estimates between cost of labour and each indicator suggest the different role played by 'strike frequency’and strike duration during any contract renewal.     

Strategic Supply Function Competition With Private Information

A finite number of sellers (n) compete in schedules to supply an elastic demand. The cost of each seller is random, with common and private value components, and the seller receives a private signal about it. A Bayesian supply function equilibrium is characterized: The equilibrium is privately revealing and the incentives to rely on private signals are preserved. Supply functions are steeper with higher correlation among the cost parameters. For high (positive) correlation, supply functions are downward sloping, price is above the Cournot level, and as we approach the common value case, price tends to the collusive level. As correlation becomes maximally negative, we approach the competitive outcome. With positive correlation, private information coupled with strategic behavior induces additional distortionary market power above full information levels. Efficiency can be restored with appropriate subsidy schemes or with a precise enough public signal about the common value component. As the market grows large with the number of sellers, the equilibrium becomes price‐taking, bid shading is on the order of 1/n, and the order of magnitude of welfare losses is 1/n². The results extend to inelastic demand, demand uncertainty, and demand schedule competition. A range of applications in product and financial markets is presented.     

The nature of action learning

Action Learning has developed to such an extent that there is now a demand to ‘know’ what it is. There is one way, and one way alone, of getting to ‘know’ what action learning is, and that is by doing it. For those who most clamour to ‘know’ what something might be are usually the victims of an educational system that leaves the vast majority who pass through it ignorant of the meaning of the verb to ‘know’ .... If, for example, I am asked “Do you know that woman?”, it is most probable that the questioner does not ‘know’ what he is asking me. Does he mean “Do I know her name? Or where she lives? Or am I able to introduce him to her? Or what she does for a living? Or do I recognise her by sight? Or have I been to bed with her? And, if so, what progress did I make?...” Thus, with action learning: “Have I read a book about it? Or attended a seminar at which somebody was trying to sell places on an action learning programme? Or visited a set of participants meeting as part of such a programme? Or tried to organise real persons tackling real problems in real time, and trying thereby to learn with and from each other? Or been an active participant myself in such a programme?...” To ‘know’ what action learning is, one must have been responsibly involved in it; since this cannot have been done merely by reading about action learning, it is impossible in this, or any other, note to convey more than the vaguest impression of what this educational approach may be. The day action learning becomes explicable in words alone will be the day to abandon the practice of it.     

Rationality in policy making: Two concepts not one

The concept of rationality, central to any analysis of policy making, is shown to be dual. The qualitative concept of rationality, broadly equivalent to ‘appropriate’ directs the policy analyst to an examination of information flow (since it may be defective), of goals (since these may conflict), and of the momentum of decisions (since it can produce irrationality). The quantitative concept of rationality, broadly equivalent to ‘efficient’ is itself divisible into two models (‘ends–means’ and ‘alternative behaviour’). Either, however, directs the policy analyst to an exploration of alternatives (since ideally all should be known) and of evaluative techniques (since ideally these should indicate the best alternative). Quantitative, but not qualitative, rationality is frontally challenged by some theorists (notably Lindblom) and claimed to be insufficient by others (notably Dror).     

How to design a financial planning model.

Corporate planning models frequently consist of integrated pro forma income statements, statements of financial position, and cashflow statements. When implemented by utilizing computer-based planning systems, these models allow managers to explore potential decisions in ‘what if?’ planning analyses.The logic of an integrated financial statement planning model can be arranged following either a ‘funds needed to balance approach’ or a ‘direct approach’. With a funds needed to balance approach total assets are set equal to total liabilities plus equities to satisfy this fundamental accounting identity. Logic in such models is often difficult to validate. In the direct approach, total assets are calculated independently of total liabilities plus equities providing an extremely strong test for model validation prior to using the model to assess ‘what if’ alternatives.In this paper, the author discusses the logic of integrated financial planning models and their implementation with computer-based planning systems. The funds need to balance approach and the direct approach are described and contrasted to assist corporate planners in evaluating and selecting a method for constructing the logic of corporate planning models.     

Estimation of Error and Bias in Bayesian Monte Carlo Decision Analysis Using the Bootstrap

Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) decision analysis adopts a sampling procedure to estimate likelihoods and distributions of outcomes, and then uses that information to calculate the expected performance of alternative strategies, the value of information, and the value of including uncertainty. These decision analysis outputs are therefore subject to sample error. The standard error of each estimate and its bias, if any, can be estimated by the bootstrap procedure. The bootstrap operates by resampling (with replacement) from the original BMC sample, and redoing the decision analysis. Repeating this procedure yields a distribution of decision analysis outputs. The bootstrap approach to estimating the effect of sample error upon BMC analysis is illustrated with a simple value-of-information calculation along with an analysis of a proposed control structure for Lake Erie. The examples show that the outputs of BMC decision analysis can have high levels of sample error and bias.     

Knowledge management in SMEs and MNCs: matching knowledge mobility mechanisms to supply network configuration profiles

Abstract

While ‘knowledge mobility’ presents significantly different challenges for SMEs and MNCs, it is strongly influenced by two common factors: the type of knowledge to be integrated and the configuration of the operations network. Here, SMEs and MNCs are required to make critical decisions about ‘levels’ of collaboration and knowledge sharing with network partners. A Knowledge Mobility Configuration (KMC) framework was developed, tested and refined using five case studies indicative of a growing shift towards information and knowledge-intensive activities. In terms of contribution, there has been limited empirical research to-date into the determinants of successful knowledge transfers in MNC-SME network contexts. The network configuration element of the KMC framework provides insights on how such networks evolve, and how specific knowledge mobility profiles may evolve over time. This more nuanced approach may be used as a basis for a proactive and differentiated approach to knowledge mobility and integration across SME and MNC networks.     

Generational Differences in Work Values: A Review of Theory and Evidence

This paper presents a critical review of the theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the popular practitioner idea that there are generational differences in work values. The concept of generations has a strong basis in sociological theory, but the academic empirical evidence for generational differences in work values is, at best, mixed. Many studies are unable to find the predicted differences in work values, and those that do often fail to distinguish between ‘generation’ and ‘age’ as possible drivers of such observed differences. In addition, the empirical literature is fraught with methodological limitations through the use of cross‐sectional research designs in most studies, confusion about the definition of a generation as opposed to a cohort, and a lack of consideration for differences in national context, gender and ethnicity. Given the multitude of problems inherent in the evidence on generational differences in work values, it is not clear what value the notion of generations has for practitioners, and this may suggest that the concept be ignored. Ultimately, it may not matter to practitioners whether differences in the values of different birth cohorts reflect true generational effects, provided one can reliably demonstrate that these differences do exist. However, at present this is not the case, and therefore significant research is required first to disentangle cohort and generational effects from those caused by age or period. The suggestion that different groups of employees have different values and preferences, based on both age and other factors such as gender, remains a useful idea for managers; but a convincing case for consideration of generation as an additional distinguishing factor has yet to be made.     

Systems analysts and the politics of organizational control

The introduction of major information systems into organizations can be fraught with difficulties. The negative effects of such systems can, for many important organizational members, be too great a price to pay for the supposed benefits. The advent of computerised information systems has served not merely to deskill the clerical ‘craft’ but can also be used as a strategy by top management to reduce the management control gap. However, by undercutting the organizational ‘rules of the game’, information systems innovation can produce severe strains and stresses in the political system. The proposals in the literature to combat the effects of innovation are examined. A broader, political perspective is used to reveal some of the inadequacies of these proposals and supporting data, gathered from interviews in several Canadian organizations, are presented to illustrate this. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of this broader approach.