Personnel policy and manpower planning in banking

Forces of rapid change and strong competition are now operating in the world. Banking with its rapidly changing technology must keep pace with these forces but it must at the same time provide secure and continuous employment for staff. Personnel policy now encompasses manpower planning which is defined as ‘A strategy to acquire, utilize, retain and develop people by formulating and implementing sound manpower policies agreed with employees and their unions’.     

Exploring Risk Judgments in a Trade Dispute Using Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical modeling tools that are generally recommended for exploring what‐if scenarios, visualizing systems and problems, and for communication between stakeholders during decision making. In this article, we investigate their potential for exploring different perspectives in trade disputes. To do so, we draw on a specific case study that was arbitrated by the World Trade Organization (WTO): the Australia‐New Zealand apples dispute. The dispute centered on disagreement about judgments contained within Australia's 2006 import risk analysis (IRA). We built a range of BNs of increasing complexity that modeled various approaches to undertaking IRAs, from the basic qualitative and semi‐quantitative risk analyses routinely performed in government agencies, to the more complex quantitative simulation undertaken by Australia in the apples dispute. We found the BNs useful for exploring disagreements under uncertainty because they are probabilistic and transparently represent steps in the analysis. Different scenarios and evidence can easily be entered. Specifically, we explore the sensitivity of the risk output to different judgments (particularly volume of trade). Thus, we explore how BNs could usefully aid WTO dispute settlement. We conclude that BNs are preferable to basic qualitative and semi‐quantitative risk analyses because they offer an accessible interface and are mathematically sound. However, most current BN modeling tools are limited compared with complex simulations, as was used in the 2006 apples IRA. Although complex simulations may be more accurate, they are a black box for stakeholders. BNs have the potential to be a transparent aid to complex decision making, but they are currently computationally limited. Recent technological software developments are promising.     

考虑产品变质的VMI混合补货发货策略及优化仿真

本文研究了“产品可变质”情况下的VMI库存补货与装运调度问题,并建立了Poisson需求过程下的VMI混合补货发货模型,根据此模型通过简单的规划求解即可得到使长期平均成本最小的最佳混合策略组合。由于模型推演过程中涉及到对补货周期内期望发货次数的近似估计,因而模型解是拟最优的。算例和模型仿真显示,模型结果与仿真结果十分相近,从而模型有效性得以确认。     

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three‐tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies.     

ATTITUDES,POLICIES, AND WORK

We study whether cultural attitudes towards gender, the young, and leisure are significant determinants of the employment rates of women and of the young, and of hours worked. We do this controlling for policies, institutions and other structural characteristics of the economy which may influence labor market outcomes. We identify the effect of culture exploiting the evolution over time within country, as well as across countries, of cultural attitudes. We also address the endogeneity of attitudes, policies, and institutions, and allow for the persistent nature of labor market outcomes. We find that culture matters for women's employment rates and for hours worked. However, policies, in particular employment protection legislation and taxes, are also important and their quantitative impact substantial.     

Development and analysis of mathematical and simulation models of decision-making tools for remanufacturing

This article presents decision-making tools for remanufacturing. The first decision-making tool was used to address inventory lot-sizing problems in a hybrid remanufacturing–manufacturing system with varying remanufacturing fraction. In this article, the new inventory lot-sizing model with variable remanufacturing lot sizes has been shown to exhibit better performance than the benchmark model with fixed remanufacturing lot sizes. The new inventory lot-sizing model is anticipated to become a valuable decision-making tool in companies that are planning to adopt remanufacturing. The second decision-making tool was applied to address a production and inventory planning problem in a remanufacturing system considering different remanufacturing policies for a given remanufacturing strategy. For a remanufacture-to-stock system with two quality remanufacturables groups four alternative policies were examined, a policy which specifies simultaneous processing utilising dedicated resources was shown to be the best policy to achieve a shorter remanufacturing cycle time. For a remanufacture-to-order system with two quality remanufacturables groups, the three relevant policies of the four alternative policies were examined, a policy which specifies sequential processing and switching between various quality remanufacturables groups was shown to be the best policy to achieve a shorter remanufacturing cycle time. The production and inventory planning simulation models in a remanufacturing system are expected to become significant decision-making tools in remanufacturing operations.     

Assessing operational policies

This paper demonstrates the value and use of continuous simulation as a means of assessing operational policies prior to their implementation. Using as an example the production and employment system of a firm producing specialist pumps to order, it is shown that such assessments are practical and more likely to yield valid results than the unaided and more intuitive assessment by management. Successful application of the method depends upon the full utilisation of management's knowledge of the system, but the simulation approach used has the advantage that it can be understood, relatively easily, by managers with little, if any, mathematical training.     

Some statistical aspects of manpower planning in the civil service

A special feature of modern manpower planning methods is the use of computer-based statistical models, and the Civil Service Department is taking the lead in their development and use for manpower planning in the non-industrial Civil Service. Account is being taken of related data requirements in the development of a new Personnel Record Information System which will replace a range of existing records.Development work in hand covers both the “demand” and “supply” aspects of manpower planning and a bank of generalized “supply” models is in operation. Stationary population, renewal and Markovian principles are involved, and the particular statistical problems of modelling small manpower groups are being met in the development of a “small group” simulation model.     

Preparation of chemotherapy drugs: Planning policy for reduced waiting times

This study investigates the impact of pharmacy policies on patient waiting time in the Chemotherapy Day Unit of the Netherlands Cancer Institute—Antoni van Leeuwenhoek hospital. The project evaluated whether a reduction in waiting time resulting from medication orders being prepared in advance of patient appointments was justified, given that medications prepared in advance are wasted when patients arrive too sick for treatment. Within this context, we derive analytic expressions to approximate patient waiting times and wastage costs, allowing management to see the tradeoff between these two metrics for different policies. Using a case study and a simulation model, the approximations are evaluated. The use of analytic expressions allows the analysis to be easily repeated when medication costs change or when new medications/protocols are introduced. In the same vein, other hospitals with different patient case mixes can easily complete the analysis in their settings. Finally, the outcome from this study resulted in a new policy at the cancer center which is expected to decrease the waiting time by half, while only increasing pharmacy's costs by 1-2%.     

Integration of IPA and QFD to assess the service quality and to identify after sales service strategies to improve customer satisfaction – a case study

Customer satisfaction is considered very essential nowadays as it shows how firms are dedicated to afford quality products or services to their customers. Retaining the existing customer and acquiring the new customers are the basic objectives of any organisation and after sales service (ASS) has acquired a strategic role as a mean to achieve customer satisfaction. Importance–performance analysis (IPA) and quality function deployment (QFD) are the powerful tools successfully applied in many fields. However, studies on application of these tools in investigating the ASS quality and customer satisfaction seems to be scarce. This article investigates linking of IPA, which is a simple and effective customer satisfaction tool and QFD in the improvement of ASS attributes in an effort to determine the appropriate ASS strategic action plans to be adopted with the objective of enhancing customer satisfaction. In this study, a customer-driven model is proposed to examine the importance of the various ASS attributes and the performance of the organisation via questionnaire survey, and through the IP analysis, the areas to be focused are identified to help the decision makers in devising suitable policies, to improve the ASS performance. This is achieved through the employment of QFD that will help decision makers in the strategic planning to attain better customer satisfaction. A case study is carried out to exhibit the effectiveness of the developed model in a firm involved in manufacturing the home appliances.     

Making strategic planning work in local government.

Since decisions are made through the political process in local government, planners are being advised to modify their style of planning. Planners acknowledge the need to modify the practice of planning, but reforms are introduced within the framework of the comprehensive plan which continues to serve as the principal planning instrument. This results in internal conflicts within the planning process. In this paper a proposal is made for a planning system which is composed of a series of interacting building blocks. The planning process is molded to fit the management function and capability of those involved in the decision process. Plans are developed as management tools and the planning process accommodates the multiple centres which interact to produce a community's policies and strategies.     

DC型企业年金最优资产配置和给付方案问题研究

DC型企业年金管理者如何选择最优的资产配置策略和给付方案,以实现参保者最大的效用,是理论界和实务界都关注的问题。本文首次将生存者利益部分的精算规律考虑到个人年金账户余额变动满足的随机微分方程中,并将实际给付金额与预期给付中枢的二次偏差最小化作为优化目标。通过HJB变分方法,得到了最优的资产配置比例和最优给付方案的解析形式,并利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法研究了个人年金账户余额和预期给付中枢对最优策略的影响。结果表明:个人年金账户余额对实际给付金额和无风险资产配置比例存在正向影响;预期给付中枢对无风险资产配置比例存在负向影响。     

MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF THE TASK SEGREGATION PROBLEM IN INTERNAL CONTROL SYSTEM DESIGN*

Segregation of tasks is an important factor in the determination of internal control system reliability. In assigning tasks within an organization, the impact on internal control system reliability must be considered. This paper uses reliability modeling as the basis of a method for formulating the design problem. Formulation of the problem in this manner facilitates development of a knowledge base for auditors' judgments and the use of such knowledge in the design problem. It is demonstrated that under certain conditions the problem can be solved easily. This is useful not only in task assignment but also in manpower decisions. New concepts such as reliability degradation and a task combination matrix are introduced in developing the formulation.     

Design,reliability and validity of a computer ageing simulation technique

Details are given of a Computer Ageing Simulation Technique (CAST) which was developed for a large UK multinational company to diagnose age-related performance problems in its workforce. The technique involved a manpower simulation of 4295 people at a manufacturing plant over a ten year projection period, from 1981 to 1991. Reliability and validity were checked after a two year period, and found to be significant. The paper focusses on the design principles of a strategic human resource planning system, the benefits of using social and economic data to predict supply and demand for labour, and the importance of reliability and validity. It is concluded that CAST represents a valuable management tool. Age-related problems can be strategically assessed, and the effectiveness of a number of human resource flow policies tested out.     

Manpower studies for industrial sectors

The author has been head of the Engineering Industry Training Board's Research, Planning and Statistics Division since the Board was established. This paper deals with developments over the past 10 years in manpower studies for industrial sectors. The term manpower studies is a portmanteau one which covers a complex of interrelated activities: monitoring trends manpower forecasting, devising in manpower supply and demand, training policies to meet anticipated manpower needs, or otherwise seeking to optimise the utilisation of existing and future manpower resources. The development of these studies is briefly described and the work of the Engineering Industry Training Board—which covers both methodological studies and data collection—is dealth with in more detail.     

Implementing lean sigma in an Indian rotary switches manufacturing organisation

The manufacturing organisations have been witnessing a transformation in the manufacturing paradigm. Lean sigma and six sigma are the two business process improvement strategies widely employed by organisations to enhance their manufacturing performance. To achieve dramatic result in cost, quality and time, best strategies need to be applied to enhance the process performance. Lean sigma and six sigma are two powerful and effective strategies, enabling the organisation to overcome their weakness and for retaining their improvement. Lean sigma combines the variability reduction tools and techniques drawn from six sigma with the waste and non-value added elimination tools and techniques from lean manufacturing to achieve savings in the organisations. This study uses an integrated lean sigma framework to reduce the defects occurring in the final product, thereby contributing savings to the organisation. The proposed framework integrates lean tools within six sigma methodology to enhance the bottom-line results and to win customer loyalty. The implementation of the proposed framework shows dramatic improvement in key metrics and substantial financial savings to be generated by the organisation.     

Upper Confidence Limits on Excess Risk for Quantitative Responses

The definition and observation of clear-cut adverse health effects for continuous (quantitative) responses, such as altered body weights or organ weights, are difficult propositions. Thus, methods of risk assessment commonly used for binary (quantal) toxic responses such as cancer are not directly applicable. In this paper, two methods for calculating upper confidence limits on excess risk for quantitative toxic effects are proposed, based on a particular definition of an adverse quantitative response. The methods are illustrated with data from a dose-response study, and their performance is evaluated with a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

基于修剪平均的神经网络集成时序预测方法

由于复杂时序存在结构性断点和异常值等问题，往往导致预测模型训练效果不佳，并可能出现极端预测值的情况。为此，本文提出了基于修剪平均的神经网络集成预测方法。该方法首先从训练数据中生成多组训练集，然后分别训练多个神经网络预测模型，最后将多个神经网络的预测结果使用修剪平均策略进行集成。相较于简单平均策略而言，修剪平均策略不容易受到极值的影响，能够使集成模型获得鲁棒性强的预测效果。在实证研究中，本文构造了两种神经网络集成预测模型，分别为基于修剪平均的自举神经网络集成模型(Trimmed Average based Bootstrap Neural Network Ensemble, TA-BNNE)和基于修剪平均的蒙特卡洛神经网络集成模型(Trimmed Average based Monte Carlo Neural Network Ensemble, TA-MCNNE)，并采用这两种模型对NN3竞赛数据集进行预测，结果表明在常规和复杂数据集上，修剪平均策略比简单平均策略具有更好的预测精度。此外，本文将所提出的集成模型与NN3的前十名模型进行比较，发现两种模型在全部数据集上均超过了第6名，在复杂数据集上的表现均超过了第1名，进一步验证本文所提方法的有效性。     

A simulation-based dynamic operator assignment strategy considering machine interference - a case study on integrated circuit chip moulding operations

A simulation-based dynamic operator assignment strategy is proposed considering machine interference in solving an integrated circuit moulding operation problem. The strategy iteratively solves a floating manpower operator-assignment problem between simulation-based diagnostic study and operator assignment decision. Given current-state information, it provides a means for system performance evaluation. It searches a satisfactory solution for both cycle time and service level performances by using floating manpower method. A structured experimental design is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Empirical results show promise for the proposed methodology in solving a practical application. Finally, the system implementation constraints from both hardware and management problems are addressed.     

Optimizing real-time vehicle sequencing of a paint shop conveyor system

A discrete event simulation model and a decision optimizer that were developed for a General Motors paint shop conveyor system are presented. The simulation model interacts with the decision optimizer at four critical points in the system, trying to regroup batches of different colored vehicles. The decision optimizer employs dynamic programming and integer programming to optimize vehicle routing policies. Simulation results of the current decision making policies are compared with those of the proposed optimized policies showing that the number of paint head changes can be significantly reduced resulting in substantial savings on paint head cleaners and paint.