Mapping the organization a methodological approach to organizational change initiation

facturers have realized that in order to survive in this market a new way of doing business is required. Initiating and planning changes is the focus of this paper, which describes a new methodology developed with the Israeli Military Industries. The methodology is designed to promote and initiate change in operations by defining a well-structured approach to Abstract. The defence industry is facing a shrinking market and tough competition. Most defence contractors and manu     

Measures of return under uncertainty

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First a methodlogy for contrasting accounting and economic measures of return will be briefly described. This methodology overcomes many of the limitations of previous comparisons of these measures. Second, the results of applying the new methodology to an area of current accounting concern—adjusting for price level changes—will be presented.     

Developing a scale for assessing risk attitudes of agricultural decision makers

This study adapts a methodology formulated in the social sciences to develop a scale for measuring an economic agent’s attitude toward risk. The scale assesses risk attitudes by eliciting farmers’ opinions towards risk management tools using a Likert procedure. The methodology validates the scale with a scientific risk attitude measure and compares the scale to the farmers’ self-assessment of their risk attitudes. The resulting scale methodology could be administered to people without the need for personal interviews. The subjects for this study were Midwestern farmers, but the methodology can be applied to any sector of the agricultural industry.     

An analytic hierarchy process based simulation model for entry mode decision regarding foreign direct investment

A methodology is developed for ranking entry mode alternatives encountered by individual firms considering foreign direct investment (FDI). The methodology deals with the risks and uncertainties related to FDI. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to solve the multiple criteria decision-making problem using input from a firm's management. A simulation approach is incorporated into the AHP to handle the uncertainty considerations encountered in an FDI environment. The uncertainties include: (1) uncertainty regarding the future characteristics of the FDI decision making environment, (2) uncertainty associated with the decision maker's judgment regarding pairwise comparisons necessitated by the AHP.     

Extreme ranking analysis in robust ordinal regression

We extend the principle of robust ordinal regression with an analysis of extreme ranking results. In our proposal, we consider the whole set of instances of a preference model that is compatible with preference information provided by the DM. We refer to both, the well-known UTA^GMS method, which builds the set of general additive value functions compatible with DM's preferences, and newly introduced in this paper PROMETHEE^GKS, which constructs the set of compatible outranking models via robust ordinal regression. Then, we consider all complete rankings that follow the use of the compatible preference models, and we determine the best and the worst attained ranks for each alternative. In this way, we are able to assess its position in an overall ranking, and not only in terms of pairwise comparisons, as it is the case in original robust ordinal regression methods. Additionally, we analyze the ranges of possible comprehensive scores (values or net outranking flows). We also discuss extensions of the presented approach on other multiple criteria problems than ranking. Finally, we show how the presented methodology can be applied in practical decision support, reporting results of three illustrative studies.     

Cost-effectiveness in defence expenditure

Decision-making in defence is complicated by the need to make long-range plans with regard to weapons systems and force structures in an environment marked by great strategic and technological uncertainty. Cost-effectiveness analysis, which is a variant of the general analytical approach, is an attempt to clarify and structure defence choice situations. As a method of analysis, it shares certain properties of both cost-benefit and operational analysis, and indeed emerged from them in response to the unique needs of defence planners. Cost-effectiveness analysis involves a number of conceptual and practical problems, but its most difficult challenge is the requirement to exist in a political and bureaucratic environment where the system of incentives may not be compatible with the notion of economic rationality. However, the recent appearance of competitive cost-effectiveness analysis of defence options promises to promote the relevance and applicability of this approach.     

Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the “Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment” of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the “International Safety Management Code” are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.     

The Multistage Model with a Time-Dependent Dose Pattern: Applications to Carcinogenic Risk Assessment1

A cancer risk assessment methodology based upon the Armitage–Doll multistage model of cancer is applied to animal bioassay data. The method utilizes the exact time-dependent dose pattern used in a bioassay rather than some single measure of dose such as average dose rate or cumulative dose. The methodology can be used to predict risks from arbitrary exposure patterns including, for example, intermittent exposure and short-term exposure occurring at an arbitrary age. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to a National Cancer Institute bioassay of ethylene dibromide in which dose rates were modified several times during the course of the experiment.     

Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal

This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami‐inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders.     

Operational research in Indian defence

The paper gives an outline of the areas of Operational Research (OR) where work in the Defence Department in India has been successful, even though it has not been fully implemented due to certain reservations on the part of the users and some limitations of OR scientists. There is an ad hoc quality in the decision making of the customer, and no large scale OR models are available which give a total effect of defence spending on social measures and human resources development. OR would be able to contribute to a balanced spending on defence in developing countries, if effort were made to analyse defence problems in the wider context. The author was formerly Director of Scientific Evaluation, Ministry of Defence, India.     

Improving throughput for an electronic assembly line using a constraint analysis methodology

Electronic assembly operations are vital to industries such as telecommunications, computers and consumer electronics. This paper presents a constraint analysis methodology for planning and improving electronic assembly operations that draws on concepts from queueing theory, simulation and production planning. The proposed methodology identifies the operational bottleneck and predicts the utilization, throughput and lead time of the assembly line. It also quantifies the relationship between yields and utilization for the assembly operations. A case study is presented that applies the methodology at an Ericsson, Inc., telecommunications equipment assembly facility. The constraint analysis methodology provided valuable decision support as the managers of Ericsson evaluated the costs and benefits of additional production capacity. Although the focus of this paper is electronic assembly operations, the methodology can be applied to general flow line assembly systems with feedback loops for test and rework under dedicated high-volume production.     

MODELING TIME-COST TRADE-OFFS IN CPM NETWORKS

A new type of PERT/CPM methodology is introduced whereby the individual activities within a project management network are endowed with resistive and capacitive elements. This methodology will enable us to mathematically define a completion time for the various activities and to relate the completion time to relevant cost in the completion of a particular task. It will also allow us to define the work done, and the rate at which work is being done, in an activity as a function of the applied effort and resource outlay. As a consequence, both the resource expenditure and the work done can be tracked within a network as a function of time.     

Reconstruction and Deconstruction of the Foundation of South Australia as a Nineteenth-Century Strategic Planning Process and How it Might Compare with Current Planning Practice

ABSTRACT

This article does three things. It reconstructs the narrative about the foundation of South Australia in the 1830s as a strategic planning process. It then deconstructs that analysis to explore the issues it addresses and the outcomes. Finally, it reviews the South Australian experience to see if there are valid comparisons to be made with current practice and what lessons it might offer in that regard. In doing that it briefly reviews one present methodology of strategic planning most akin to that followed in South Australia, and one strategic planning exercise that could learn from it.     

Nonparametric Bayesian Methods for Benchmark Dose Estimation

The article proposes and investigates the performance of two Bayesian nonparametric estimation procedures in the context of benchmark dose estimation in toxicological animal experiments. The methodology is illustrated using several existing animal dose‐response data sets and is compared with traditional parametric methods available in standard benchmark dose estimation software (BMDS), as well as with a published model‐averaging approach and a frequentist nonparametric approach. These comparisons together with simulation studies suggest that the nonparametric methods provide a lot of flexibility in terms of model fit and can be a very useful tool in benchmark dose estimation studies, especially when standard parametric models fail to fit to the data adequately.     

Analytic approaches to problems of a middle-sized defence department

The application of operational research to the problems of Canadian defence was very similar to that in Great Britain and the United States during World War II and through the 1950s. But because of the rapidly increasing costs of major weapon systems, since the 1960s systems analysis has been very thoroughly applied to the study of the large procurement programs, including far-reaching examination of their economic impact on the nation. Other problems of special interest to Canada which received analytical attention included peacekeeping and military involvement in activities such as maritime surveillance and search and rescue. Analytical studies have been extended into examination of logistics and manpower, and into economic, sociological, and strategic problems of concern to the Canadian defence department, including arms control. This type of research represents a considerable excursion from the original operational research, but is needed in the Canadian Department of National Defence.     

Toward an Application Guide for Safety Integrity Level Allocation in Railway Systems

The work in the article presents the development of an application guide based on feedback and comments stemming from various railway actors on their practices of SIL allocation to railway safety‐related functions. The initial generic methodology for SIL allocation has been updated to be applied to railway rolling stock safety‐related functions in order to solve the SIL concept application issues. Various actors dealing with railway SIL allocation problems are the intended target of the methodology; its principles will be summarized in this article with a focus on modifications and precisions made in order to establish a practical guide for railway safety authorities. The methodology is based on the flowchart formalism used in CSM (common safety method) European regulation. It starts with the use of quantitative safety requirements, particularly tolerable hazard rates (THR). THR apportioning rules are applied. On the one hand, the rules are related to classical logical combinations of safety‐related functions preventing hazard occurrence. On the other hand, to take into account technical conditions (last safety weak link, functional dependencies, technological complexity, etc.), specific rules implicitly used in existing practices are defined for readjusting some THR values. SIL allocation process based on apportioned and validated THR values is finally illustrated through the example of “emergency brake” subsystems. Some specific SIL allocation rules are also defined and illustrated.     

Lean Six Sigma approach in an Indian auto ancillary conglomerate: a case study

The purpose of this article is to illustrate how Lean Six Sigma (LSS) methodology was applied to an Auto ancillary conglomerate in India for achieving operational excellence. The research reported in this paper is based on a case study carried out using LSS methodology in improving yield of a semi-automated transfer line process of the organisation. The root causes for the problem were identified and validated through data based analysis from LSS tool box, at different stages in the study. The application of LSS methodology resulted in reduction of drilling defects while machining injector bodies and reduced the Defects Per Million Opportunities from 38,000 to 5600. The application of this methodology had a significant financial impact (saving of about INR 1.4 million per annum) on the bottom-line of the company.     

Functional Approximation and Optimal Specification of the Mechanical Risk Index

The mechanical risk index (MRI) is a numerical measure that quantifies the complexity of drilling a well. The purpose of this article is to examine the role of the component factors of the MRI and its structural and parametric assumptions. A meta-modeling methodology is applied to derive functional expressions of the MRI, and it is shown that the MRI can be approximated in terms of a linear functional. The variation between the MRI measure and its functional specification is determined empirically, and for a reasonable design space, the functional specification is shown to a good approximating representation. A drilling risk index is introduced to quantify the uncertainty in the time and cost associated with drilling a well. A general methodology is outlined to create an optimal MRI specification.