Universal basic income with flat tax reform in France

This article evaluates the effects of a revenue-neutral tax reform introducing a universal basic income scheme coupled with a flat income tax which replaces the existing minimum income benefit, several other conditional benefits and the existing progressive income taxation. To this aim we use a Micro–Macro simulation model for the French economy. Interestingly, our results show that the reform induces not only a significant reduction in income inequalities and poverty, but also a slightly positive effect at the macroeconomic level, implying that the equity-efficiency trade-off would not be produced.     

Behavioral responses and the distributional effects of the Russian ‘flat’ tax

This paper simulates the distributional impact of the Russian personal income tax (PIT) following the flat tax reform of 2001 using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. I decompose the change in the distribution of net income into a direct (tax) effect and an indirect effect. The indirect effect is further decomposed into evasion and productivity effects using existing estimates of these respective elasticities. As expected, the direct tax effect increased net income inequality. Changes in the pre-tax distribution (indirect effect), on the other hand, had a large negative impact on inequality thus leading to an overall decline in net income inequality. I also find that the tax-induced evasion response increased reported net income inequality while reducing consumption inequality. To the extent that consumption approximates actual income, these results demonstrate that the flat tax reform had a much smaller effect on actual income inequality than on reported income inequality. More importantly, relative to non-tax factor, the reform had little overall effect on income inequality. This suggests that objection to flatter tax schedules on the grounds of income inequality is mostly misguided, especially in transitional countries with high levels of evasion.     

Income redistribution effects of tax reforms in Sweden

In 1989 a major tax reform was proposed in Sweden. Substantially lower tax rates, a broader tax base, and bigger allowances to families with children are its main components. With the help of a microsimulation model the impact of the reform on income distribution is studied here. The usefulness and the limitations of this type of policy model are also discussed. Somewhat surprisingly, our simulation results show no noticeably adverse effect on income distribution as described by the Lorenz curve: the inequality-increasing effect of the changes in tax rates is offset by the changes in the other components of the reform.     

税式支出对促进高新技术产业发展的实证分析

近年来,南京市高新技术产业发展呈现出总量扩张、税负下降、竞争力不强的状况。选取南京市高新技术产业七大行业的产值占地区工业总产值比重指标、流转税税负、所得税税负,建立面板数据模型分析,发现税式支出激励效应存在结构性差异,流转税的激励效应大于所得税的激励效应。激励政策对航天航空制造业、医药制造业、专用科学仪器设备制造业的效果不显著;对于另外四个行业,激励效应也存在结构差异。因此,应采取差异化的税式支出激励政策,改变当前以所得税为主要激励税种的现状,转变成以流转税和所得税为双主体的激励方式。     

Unemployment compensation and the use of social assistance among second-generation immigrants in Sweden

Previous studies have shown that the participation of first-generation immigrants in the Swedish income security system deviates from that of the native population. However, so far there has been no research that has focused on this issue where second-generation immigrants are concerned. This study shows that the rates of participation in different parts of the income security system vary considerably between different groups of second-generation immigrants. Second-generation immigrants whose parents come from Western Europe have low participa-tion rates in all the studied parts of the income security system. Their participation rates are even lower than for natives with both parents born in Sweden. Second-generation immigrants with parents from southern Europe and from outside Europe, on the other hand, have very high participation rates in especi-ally social assistance. The differences between the groups are of course to a great extent explained by differences in their labour market situation. According to the findings of the study, there are reasons to be concerned about the future labour market integration of second-generation immigrants with parents of non-European origin.     

Economic well‐being of low‐income single‐mother families following welfare reform in the USA

This study explored changes in net disposable income for low‐income single‐mother families before and after the 1996 welfare reform in the USA. Although many studies on welfare reform have focused on employment or total family income as a way to measure low‐income single‐mother families’ economic well‐being, little is known about their net income after expenses related to entering the workforce. This study analyzed net disposable income after tax deductions and childcare costs to provide a more accurate understanding of income changes using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the US Census Bureau. The results revealed that while low‐income single mothers were working more after welfare reform, their net disposable income decreased during this time because their earnings were low and offset by an increase in childcare costs and a decline in means‐tested benefits, including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families benefits. Key Practitioner Message: ● To understand effects of the 1996 welfare reform on low‐income families’ economic well‐being; ● To understand comprehensive income sources and work related expenses of low‐income families; ● To provide policy suggestions for comprehensive childcare subsidies to support low‐income single mothers’ employment.     

The macroeconomic effects of basic income funded by a land-holding tax in Korea

We examine the macroeconomic effects of the introduction of a scheme to pay a basic income of approximately $900 per year to each citizen through a land-holding tax. Unlike other studies, we address the issue of whether a sharp increase in the land-holding tax rate intended to raise funds for a basic income scheme causes landowners to sell their land. We also use the relationship between holding assets and reservation wages to determine whether household members supply their labor in accordance with the payment of basic income. Our simulation results obtained using data for Korea show that the introduction of the basic income scheme decreases real gross domestic product, total labor demand, and social welfare by 1.3%, 0.3%, and 0.4%, respectively.     

Reducing the regressivity of indirect taxation in Brazil through a personalized value-added tax

ICMS is a value-added tax and the most important tax in Brazil in terms of revenue. This paper investigates the technical feasibility and impact of a reform to ICMS. The aim of the reform is twofold, on the one hand, to modernize the tax and redress some current flaws in terms of neutrality, simplicity and transparency and, on the other, to reduce its regressivity, increase redistribution, reduce poverty and impact positively on social welfare (without a loss in the tax revenue). A static behavioral microsimulation model was purpose-constructed to study the proposed reform. The new tax simplifies the current system by introducing a single general tax rate and an increased rate for alcoholic beverages and tobacco, without exemptions, combining this with a total or partial refund for the poorest families. The empirical results show that the new tax is superior to the current one, both in terms of efficiency and equity.     

Distributional and employment effects of labour tax changes in Finland

Labour income taxes in Finland decreased considerably during the period 1996–2008. At the same time the Finnish economy grew rapidly. Nevertheless, there was another coincidental trend in this period: a rapid rise in inequality. This study aims to answer to what extent labour income tax reductions between 1996 and 2008 contributed to this trend in inequality. The study also examines how much more employment was achieved owing to the labour tax reforms. To answer these questions, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. The model is calibrated to fit the Finnish economy. The study finds that the labour income tax cuts fractionally raised the Gini coefficient for net labour income. They also increased the concentration of wealth. The employment gains due to the reforms have been modest, but nevertheless significant.     

The impact of tax rates, political partisanship and economic variables on the distribution of state and local tax burdens

This study finds that the effective state and local tax rate for the top 1% of income households as a percentage of the effective state and local tax rate for the bottom 20% of income households in 2002 is significantly influenced by whether a state has a multi-rate income tax, right-to-work laws, the liberalism of a state's electorate, the average tax burden in a state and past tax policy. Democratic Party strength in state government, Republican or Democratic Party institutional control of state government, change in real per capita income, a Democratic Governor and the change in the share of income going to the top 1% of income households are not significant predictors. The empirical results are identical for the top 2-5% of income households to the bottom 20% of income households.     

Achievers or slackers? Per capita income trends in European countries

This paper studies the catching up process of the per capita income of Western European countries for the 1870–2014 period. The contribution to the literature is twofold. First, the use of the Kejriwal and Perron (2010) algorithm allows us to detect any number of structural breaks in the level and in the trend without prior knowledge of the integration order. This is a significant improvement over the algorithms previously used in the literature which limits the number of possible structural breaks to two. In fact, we find that some countries show more than two breaks. Second, we use the longest data series in the literature. That enables us to tell a much richer story about the catching up process in Western Europe. We find that events like the World Wars, the creation of the European Economic Community and the information technology revolution, among others, were likely to cause such breaks.     

Inequality of opportunity in the United Kingdom, 1991–2008

We investigate the extent to which the tax-and-transfer system of the United Kingdom equalizes opportunities for income attainment among citizens. Within the framework of Roemer’s theory of equality of opportunity, and using individual data from the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 2008, we calculate the tax rates necessary to equalize opportunities for different circumstances. We provide a ranking of these circumstances by the degree to which they influence income attainment. Although pre-fisc equality of opportunity increases over time, the tax rate necessary to equalize opportunities remains higher than the observed tax rate. Only under a relatively high labour supply elasticity the observed UK tax rate fares well in equalizing opportunities for income attainment.     

Inequality of opportunity in the United Kingdom, 1991–2008

We investigate the extent to which the tax-and-transfer system of the United Kingdom equalizes opportunities for income attainment among citizens. Within the framework of Roemer’s theory of Equality of Opportunity, and using individual data from the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 2008, we calculate the tax rates necessary to equalize opportunities for different circumstances. We provide a ranking of these circumstances by the degree to which they influence income attainment. Although pre-fisc equality of opportunity increases over time, the tax rate necessary to equalize opportunities remains higher than the observed tax rate. Only under a relatively high labour supply elasticity the observed UK tax rate fares well in equalizing opportunities for income attainment.     

Getting low educated and older people into work: The role of fiscal policy

Raising employment, in particular employment among older individuals and low educated individuals, stands high on the agenda of policy makers in many OECD countries. Increased sensitivity in recent years to rising inequality has made the challenge only larger. In this paper we evaluate alternative fiscal policy scenarios to face this challenge. We construct and use an overlapping generations model for an open economy where individuals differ not only by age, but also by innate ability and human capital. The model allows us to study effects on aggregate employment, per capita income and welfare, as well as effects for specific age and ability groups. We show that well-considered fiscal policy changes can significantly improve macroeconomic productive efficiency, without increasing intergenerational or intragenerational welfare inequality. Our results strongly prefer a reduction in the labor tax rate on older workers and on all low-wage earners, financed by an overall reduction in non-employment benefits. An alternative financing option is to raise the consumption tax rate. These results are to be seen as long-run effects for economies at potential output.     

基于来源视角的城乡居民收入差距与财税制度选择

2001年以来,随着工业反哺农业政策的实施,农民的工资性收入、经营性收入、转移性收入和财产性收入均有所增加,城乡基尼系数逐渐下降。但是,以流转税为主的税制结构和现行财税制度仍制约着城乡居民收入差距的进一步缩小。因而,为增强财税制度调节城乡居民收入的作用,应构建以所得税为主的税制模式,完善增值税和个人所得税,健全房产出租的税制体系,开征资本利得税并增加财政"三农"支出。     

逃税行为的经济学分析

逃税是一种普遍的社会现象,尤其在发展中国家更为严重.纳税人在进行逃税活动时,总是权衡了风险和收益的情况下,选择最优的收入申报量,而使它的预期收入最大化.当逃税被稽查的概率与被查处所受惩罚的力度之积大于和等于1时,纳税人会倾向完全纳税,相反会倾向逃税.同时,逃税人的预期收入还受到收入、税率、稽查概率和惩罚力度等参数的影响.要遏制逃税行为,应采取适当提高稽查概率,加大惩罚力度和提高收入的显性化等措施,才能使它的危害程度降到最小.     

Were We Really All in it Together? The Distributional Effects of the 2010–15 UK Coalition Government's Tax‐benefit Policy Changes

This article examines the distributional impacts of changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct taxes between the UK general elections of May 2010 and May 2015. The changes did not have a common effect on all household incomes; nor did the direct tax‐benefit changes contribute to deficit reduction. Effectively, reductions in benefits and tax credits financed part of the direct taxes cuts, but the overall net fiscal cost increased pressure for cuts in other public services and increases in other (more regressive) taxes. The main gains were in the upper middle of the income distribution, and the main losers were at the bottom and those close to, but not at, the very top. Across most of the distribution the changes were regressive. By comparing with other analyses of policy changes in the same period, we illustrate the importance of analytical choices and assumptions for detailed conclusions on their distributional effects. We also show how some groups were clear losers or gained little on average – including lone parent families, large families and families with younger children. Others were gainers, including two‐earner couples, and those in their fifties and early sixties. The findings show that a dominant feature of the period was that the combination of higher tax‐free income tax allowances, financed by cuts in benefits and tax credits, was generally regressive. As this combination also lies at the heart of the proposed policies of the Conservative government since 2015, we would expect these effects to be intensified in the coming years.     

Hybridization instead of Clustering: Transformation Processes of Welfare Policies in Central and Eastern Europe

Welfare state theories tend to use concepts of clustering for defining the affiliation of national social security systems to overarching worlds of welfare. A closer look at the transformation processes of welfare policies in Central and Eastern Europe shows a great variability among those countries in approximating their welfare states to Western European standards. In the design of their pension systems, their health care provision and their unemployment protection, Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) follow different reform paths. Welfare clusters in Western Europe are used as reference models, but no single example applies to all sectors of social security. Thus, a generalizing picture of welfare provision cannot be drawn for Central and Eastern Europe. Instead of constituting a new individual type of welfare arrangement, a hybridization process is observable.     

Disposable income differences between immigrants and natives in Sweden

This paper investigates whether there are differences in Sweden between immigrants and natives in disposable income and in the probability of having a low disposable income. By investigating disposable income and the probability of having a low disposable income, our study illuminates to what extent taxes and transfers in the Swedish welfare state manage to compensate for differences in income from work between immigrants and natives. The study shows that there are differences between different groups both in disposable income and in the probability of having a low disposable income and that these differences remain when we control for factors such as age, gender, education and civil status. Early immigrants from the Nordic countries have a higher disposable income than does the native population whereas recent immigrants have a substantially lower disposable income and a higher probability of remaining poor than both earlier immigrants and the native population. In summary, our study shows that the differences in disposable income between immigrants and natives are indeed smaller than the differences in income from work but that the differences are not completely counterbalanced through the tax and transfer system.     

Welfare state dissatisfaction and support for major welfare reform: Towards means-tested welfare or a universal basic income?

This research note investigates how people combine their views on two radically opposing welfare reforms: a universal basic income and a fully means-tested welfare state. Using data from the 2016–2017 European Social Survey, we found that support for transformative welfare reform is rooted in perceptions of the performance of the current system. The preferred direction of reform, however, strongly depends on the specific aspects of the welfare state people are happy or unhappy with. At the country-level, we show that underperforming welfare states—in terms of higher poverty rates and lower social spending—increase popular demand for transformative welfare reform, in either direction. These findings are of crucial importance for ongoing debates about the future of the welfare state.