当前中国族际通婚变动的影响因素

利用人口普查数据,采用聚类分析和逐步多元线性回归分析方法,研究2000～2010年中国各少数民族族际通婚率变化的影响因素。结果表明,中国少数民族族际通婚率总体有所增长,主要影响因素为居住分散度增大和人口流动率提高。各少数民族间族际通婚率增长差异悬殊,按族际通婚率变化量、影响因素变化量数值高低聚类成3类：对于第一类17个民族,城镇化率的提高及2000年族际通婚率较低对族际通婚率的提高影响显著;对于第二类23个民族,高等教育人口比例和城镇化率的增长对族际通婚率的提高影响显著;第三类15个民族族际通婚率增长幅度小或负增长,从社会背景分析,部分民族的族际通婚率已达到很高程度,缺乏提升空间,其他民族需要从宗教、语言等方面寻找影响因素。     

中国各民族族际通婚的结构特征：基于社会网络分析的考察

族际通婚数据属于典型的关系数据,可视为由各民族与其他民族通婚联系形成的关系体系。因此,社会网络分析提供的一整套方法可作为族际通婚研究的方法工具,以便利地刻画通婚关系的结构特征。基于2010年第六次全国人口普查数据,首次尝试将该方法用于考察和分析中国各民族族际通婚的结构性特征。初步应用揭示,中国形成了一个以汉族为中心的大的全国族际通婚圈,同时存在少数民族间凝聚力明显有别的8个地方性子通婚圈,该结构特征是中华民族多元一体格局的直观体现。可见,社会网络分析是揭示和认识族际通婚关系结构的可靠且有效方式,其中,社会网络的图形呈现、中心性测度和社群识别技术可为族际通婚关系的分析提供直观和详细的补充信息。     

西部民族地区城市化进程中族际通婚问题研究—甘南藏族自治州合作市调查报告

本文基于甘南（合作市）的实地调查资料,对民族地区族际通婚的影响因素作了实证研究,并以此为依据对地区的民族关系问题作了分析。主要调查结果和结论如下：第一。“藏、回、汉”三元民族关系构成了甘南（合作市）民族关系的基本格局,不同民族之阃的族际通婚反映出了甘南（合作市）地区存在着整体上比较和睦融洽的民族关系：第二。宗教信仰对族际婚姻范围的扩大起着阻碍作用,这在主要聚居于西部地区普遍信仰伊斯兰教的回族表现的尤为明显;第三,民族混居、互交朋友、教育水平和语言能力是影响各民族族际通婚的重要条件,其中语言能力是影响汉族族外通婚的最主要因素,但这一因素对于藏族却并不明显;第四,职业因素和迁移情况在调查中会发现在通婚方面具有一些特征,但在回归分析时由于编码方法的影响。对族际通婚的影响并不明显。     

北京近年族际通婚状况的实证研究

基于2004~2012年北京婚姻登记数据的分析,表明北京近十年的族际通婚在新婚群体中占比约10%,其中以少数民族与汉族的通婚为主,也有相当数量的少数民族之间的族际通婚。与民族地区相比,北京的族际通婚的特点表现出显著差异:北京族际通婚的人口平均初婚年龄高于汉族通婚,夫妇平均学历水平也高于族内通婚的情况,少数民族之间的族际通婚人群中有很大比例的迁移人口和流动人口;婚姻稳定性方面,族际通婚夫妇的离结率(即当年的离婚数量与结婚数量之比)大大低于族内通婚。新婚人群的特征对比映射出北京对于少数民族精英人口的强大吸纳力。     

北京近年族际通婚状况的实证研究

基于2004~2012年北京婚姻登记数据的分析,表明北京近十年的族际通婚在新婚群体中占比约10%,其中以少数民族与汉族的通婚为主,也有相当数量的少数民族之间的族际通婚。与民族地区相比,北京的族际通婚的特点表现出显著差异:北京族际通婚的人口平均初婚年龄高于汉族通婚,夫妇平均学历水平也高于族内通婚的情况,少数民族之间的族际通婚人群中有很大比例的迁移人口和流动人口;婚姻稳定性方面,族际通婚夫妇的离结率(即当年的离婚数量与结婚数量之比)大大低于族内通婚。新婚人群的特征对比映射出北京对于少数民族精英人口的强大吸纳力。     

改革开放以来中国族际通婚变动的十大趋势

族际通婚对于构建民族互嵌格局、铸牢中华民族共同体意识有重要意义。通过深入挖掘1982年以来历次全国人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据资料,回顾和总结了改革开放40多年来中国族际通婚变动的十大趋势：一是族际通婚的普遍化,族际通婚的人口规模和比例均明显提升;二是族际通婚比例在各民族间的相对差异化;三是族际通婚圈进一步扩大,各族际通婚子圈相互交融;四是东北和西南地区的族际通婚程度相对较深;五是城镇化对族际通婚有积极影响;六是人口流动对族际通婚有促进作用;七是族际通婚人口性别比呈现梯级化差异;八是族际通婚人口中女性家庭地位不断提高;九是受教育程度与族际通婚比例呈正相关关系;十是族际通婚比例在职业类型上表现出分层化。     

中国蒙古族、满族与汉族的族际通婚状况

尽管不同朝代对待族际通婚的态度历经数次起伏,中国蒙古族、满族和汉族间通婚的限制反复恢复又废止,各族人民的接触交往却从未间断。研究发现,蒙古族、满族已婚人口中,族际通婚比例均超过40%,意味着族际通婚的普遍流行。在通婚模式上,以蒙古族-汉族、满族-汉族通婚为主,历史上曾持续约3个世纪的高度政治化的“满蒙联姻”已由民族间自由交往所取代。在性别差异上,蒙古族经历了由男性娶进居多到被女性嫁出比例反超的转变。在空间分布上,3个民族形成了以辽西走廊为核心的较为清晰的、广泛的东北—西南走向通婚链。在人口迁移流动过程中,族际通婚主要表现为本地男性娶少数民族流动女性。要重视经济互动、居住聚散程度和人口迁移流动对促进各民族交往交流交融的积极作用。     

中国城市青年地理通婚圈变化及其影响因素研究——基于北京、保定、黄石和西安四城市的调查

本文利用《中国城市青年状况调查》数据,使用多项式Logistic回归分析方法对我国城市青年的地理通婚圈进行研究。研究结果显示:人口迁移流动经历对城市未婚青年意愿通婚圈和初婚青年现实通婚圈的扩大都具有明显的促进作用,同时还发现城市独生子女的通婚圈明显比非独生子女小,但地理通婚圈不会因兄弟姐妹数量的增加而扩大。据此提出"二孩生育"政策应该成为我国生育政策的建议。     

中国流动人口通婚圈研究——基于流动人口动态监测数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,随着人口迁移流动的发展,人们的社会交际圈子迅速扩大,大规模的人口迁移流动对社会以及流动人口自身都产生了多方面的影响,其中对其婚恋行为的影响是一个值得研究的重要领域,但目前学界和政府对此关心仍然不够。文章使用2013年国家卫计委流动人口动态监测数据,运用二元Logistic回归分析方法对流动人口通婚圈研究发现：除流动人口的年龄、性别、户口和受教育程度等基本特征外,迁移流动行为也与通婚圈扩展具有显著的相关性。在流入地的居留时间、迁移流动地域范围和相对结婚时间都与跨省通婚有关,地理通婚圈扩展是社会良性发展的标志,但也不能忽视通婚圈扩展所带来的一些新问题和挑战。     

族际通婚对生育水平的影响:来自内蒙古的验证

新型生育文化及观念在蒙古族居民中已经形成,即使在少数民族地区优惠的生育政策下,蒙古族总和生育率也已经低于汉族和全国平均水平。为了更好地找出这一事实的原因,本文着眼于民族特征和跨族通婚,利用有序Logit Model对蒙古族居民的生育数量、存活数量、男孩数量、女孩数量的影响因素进行估计,发现蒙语表达能力的影响非常不明显,但是蒙语书写能力的作用比较明显。此外,民族特征和通婚特征对生育数量和存活数量的影响明显高于对生育性别的影响程度,对生育男孩的影响高于对生育女孩的影响。蒙古族生育出现持续递减的趋势,对稳定蒙古族生育水平提出了新的要求。     

少数民族人口流动原因差异的民族因素影响分析

少数民族与汉族人口流动原因存在差异,利用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,检验民族因素对这一差异是否产生影响。依据是否为少数民族和是否来自民族自治地方两个维度的民族因素将流动人口划分为四类,选取来自民族自治地方的少数民族和汉族流动人口、来自非民族自治地方的汉族流动人口作比较,作为自变量,人口流动原因为因变量。Logistic回归结果显著,民族因素对少数民族和汉族人口流动原因差异的影响是存在的。     

Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities]

In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.     

The population structure and development of the national minorities in Guangxi]

The Guangxi Autonomous Region has the largest number of minorities in China. Since 1949, great progress has been achieved in the areas of politics, the economy, culture and education, public health, science and technology, and production businesses. The living standard for the minorities as been raised, and the minority populationshows a trend toward rapid growth. As a matter of fact, the population growth for the minorities exceeds that of te Han people, and an imbalance exists in the population growth of minorities. Population growth does not match the development and production of material resources. The rapid population growth has an adverse impact on the increase in average income and an adequate supply of consumer goods for all the people. In addition, great pressure has been experienced in education, public health, and other developments at the local level. The promotion of population quality for the minorities has also been slowed because of the rapid population growth in quality. At the present time, minorities in the Guangxi area need to develop their economy with greater effort. In addition, they need to practice effective family planning measures with more enthusiasm so that they may gradually reduce the population growth rate and reach a harmony between economic growth and social development.     

Population development and changes of China's minority nationalities]

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is a nation composed of many ethnic groups. After the Communist victory of 1947, the government announced that there were 55 minority nationalities. The 1982 census provides demographic statistics concerning the position of those minorities within the population of the PRC. Since 1964, minority population has increased more rapidly than the population of the Han majority. Between 1953 and 1982, China's population increased 73.2%. The Han population increased 71.2%, the minorities, 90.4%. According to the 1982 census, the total fertility rate of the village-dwelling minorities in 1981 was 5.1%, while the fertility rate of the majority was 2.7%. The mortality rate of the various minorities decreased to the level of that of the Han. Consequently, the percentage of minorities in the total population also increased, from 5.8% of the total population in 1964 to 6.7% in 1982. The reasons for this increase include the following: the change in population reproduction brought about by democratic and socialist reform; the identification of minorities; improvement in health and medical facilities; the reinstatement of and change in racial minority policy promulgated in 1978; and intermarriage between minorities and Han Chinese. Although the minorities account for only 6.7% of China's total population, their distribution constitutes 62.5% of the nation's total area. In the past, the minorities have scattered to the various parts of the country and mingled with other ethnic groups. The high density of minorities is concentrated in the plains where the climate is mild and agricultural produce, such as wheat, rice, and corn, are cultivated. The lowest density areas with respect to the minorities are the inland highlands, deserts, and cold pastoral areas. The age structure of the minorities is young; the marriageable population is numerous; and the fertility rate is high. The educational standard of the minorities has been greatly enhanced, but is still lower than that of the Han Chinese.     

婚嫁格局变动与乡村发展——以康村通婚圈为例

农村经济体制改革后 ,康村的婚嫁距离急剧缩短 ,通婚区域快速内卷 ,通婚村减少 ,婚入与婚出出现了地域上的不对称性。形成这一局面的原因主要在于工业化、城镇化进程的不同速度打破了改革前的社会均质状态 ,引起了地区及村落发展的不平衡 ,而农村经营方式的转变和初级市场网络的复兴也对婚嫁格局、通婚距离及流向产生了一定影响。这种婚嫁格局的变动将造成婚入与婚出的失衡 ,危及人口素质的提高、村落的发展和人口结构的地域平衡     

彝族人口结构特征分析--基于第六次人口普查数据分析

本文主要利用第六次人口普查资料,对彝族的人口规模和年龄结构、受教育程度、婚姻和生育状况以及职业行业情况,进行分性别、分民族的比较研究。研究发现彝族人口规模呈现阶段性增长,总抚养比比较高,人口负担重;受教育程度低,且呈现性别和民族上的差异;从婚姻家庭状况来看,彝族女性更倾向于与汉族通婚,在生育上重男轻女现象依然很严重;从职业上看,彝族主要从事第一产业,而第二和第三产业发展不足,远远落后汉族地区;在未工作人口中,女性料理家务的比例依然较高,传统的性别角色分工观念依然根深蒂固。     

西部少数民族人口与发展

西部是我国少数民族的聚居地 ,绝大部分是民族地区。把握西部少数民族人口的现状和趋势 ,正确认识人口控制与民族繁荣的关系 ,做好计划生育工作 ,控制人口数量、提高人口素质 ,促进少数民族发展 ,对西部开发至关重要     

The salience of PAN-national hispanic and Asian identities in U.S. marriage markets

In this paper I test whether "Hispanic" and "Asian" identities are salient in the U.S. marriage market. That is, I determine whether the different Asian and Hispanic national groups intermarry often enough to suggest that Asian and Hispanic pan-national identities are important. Analysis of census data from 1980 and 1990 suggests that both Hispanic and Asian pan-national identities are significant forces. Variations in the strength of pan-national Hispanic and Asian associations by region, education, and nativity are discussed.     

Some characteristics and the transition of the population reproduction patterns of China's national minorities

The population reproduction patterns of China's minority groups differ to some extent from those of China as a whole. The population of some of the national minorities, such as the Mongolian, tibetan, and Hezhen nationalities, was actually decreasing before liberation. Cited as causal factors are the oppressive policies of past dynasties, lack of medical care in minority areas, and, in some instances, the religious imposition of strict celibacy on significant numbers of the male populaton. After libertation, reproductive patterns were characterized by a high birth rate and low mortality, resulting in a high growth rate. For example, in 1939-408 the birth rate among the Mongolian nationality in Inner Mongolia was 21.7, and the death rate was 28.3, resulting in a negative growth rate. In the period 1952-3, the birth rate rose to 41.5 while the death rate fell to 17.9 resulting in a growth rate of 23.6. This rapid transition is attributed to State policies of accelerated economic and cultural development in the minority areas, and the development of medical facilities. At present, a 3rd population pattern, characterized by a low birth rate, low mortality, and consequent low growth rate, is being seen among the national minorities. This is attributed to the leadership exhibited by minority cadres in family planning work. While advocating family planning, the State adopted a more flexible policy towards the minorities. A government directive stipulates that the specific rules can be drawn up according to the actual conditions by the nationality autonomous local authorities and the related provinces and autonomous regions. Family planning work has been achieved through the mobilization of the minority populations by the cadres, and by mass education on population theory and the relation between religious beliefs, marriage, and customs and family planning. Freedom of the minority people to preserve or reform their religious belief and customs has been absoluetely respected.     

Some understandings about the population development of the minorities in China]

China is a Socialist country which is composed of numerous ethnic groups. In addition to the Han people, there are 55 minorities in various parts of China. Since liberation (1949), the lives of the minorities have improved greatly. There has also been reasonable advancement in their local economic situation, cultural and educational establishments, and health care, and the population growth among ethnic minorities has also increased rapidly. At the present time, the rate of population growth among the minorities is extremely high, and the age structure of the minority population is young. The custom of early marriage and having children at a young age is still popular. The levels of economic development, cultural and educational establishments and medical and health care are still too low to satisfy current needs of the local people. Within a short period of time, population growth among the minorities may reach among climax, and the problem of overpopulation may become more serious. This new trend is not encouraging for the economic and cultural development of the minority people. In order to protect the economic situation of the minority population, various rules and regulations should be established according to local situations, and work in family planning and birth control is also urgently needed for the minorities.