《马尔萨斯人口论辨析》评介

秦皇岛市计生委张福生和内蒙古大学沈斌华编著的《马尔萨斯人口论辨析》一书,最近由天津人民出版社出版。该书的出版,使我国人口学界对马尔萨斯人口论的研究又向前迈进了一步,读后使人耳目一新。 该书系统介绍了马尔萨斯“人口论”的理论基础,马尔萨斯的“人口规律”、“人口原理”、“人口过剩论”、“抑制论”、“平衡论”,并介绍了古典经济学的人口思想、普雷斯的人口控制论,并分析了新老马尔萨斯主义之异同,筹等。此外,该书还提出了许多新的见解: 1、该书站在马克思主义立场对马尔萨斯的人口论采取了全面否定的态度。作者认为,多年来我国人     

马尔萨斯人口论中“两个公理”的提出及其含义——兼评王声多同志的有关论述

<正> 布杰(Siegfried Budge)曾指出:“马尔萨斯的人口论,不是把人口问题做为自己的目的而从各个侧面加以阐明的概论书。他所阐明的对象与其说是人口问题,莫如说是社会问题。而且他阐明的手段是人口原理,是根据这个原理去探讨解决社会问题的可能性。”南亮三郎先生认为这种评价是十分中肯的。这些见解是相当精深的。从布杰的论述中可以认为他区别了马尔萨斯的人口论和人口原理。本文也采用这种区别,以下凡提到人口论和人口原理时,是指两个概念。从王声多同志最近出版的专著《马尔萨斯人口论述评》     

再论马尔萨斯学说的几个分歧问题——与杜亚军同志再商榷

<正> 拜读《人口学刊》今年第2期杜亚军同志的文章《马尔萨斯人口论中‘两个公理’的提出及其含义》(以下简称《杜文》),颇受启发,促进了我的再思考;文中正面阐述的有些观点与我一致或相近。然而,有三个问题我不能苟同,值得再论,愿与杜亚军同志再商榷。(一)关于马氏“人口论”与“人口原理”的区别《杜文》引证了布杰的一段话:“马尔萨斯的人口论,不是把人口问题做为自己的目的而从各个侧面加以阐明的概论书。他所阐明的对象与其说是人口问题,莫不如说是社会问题。而且他阐明的手段是人口原理,是根据这个原理去探讨解决社会问题的可能性”,来强调马氏人口论与人口原理的区别。但是,如果我们对这段话仔细推敲以后,就会感到强调“论”和“原理”这两者间的区别,是没有什么必要的。第一,这段话的     

坚持马克思主义人口理论 把人口科学的研究向前推进一步——第三次全国人口科学讨论会概述

<正> 中国人口学会成立大会和第三次全国人口科学讨论会1981年2月21—28日在北京召开。会议对目前人们关注的人口问题进行了理论上的探讨。会议期间,国务院副总理陈慕华同志作了重要报告。现就会议讨论的一些问题,概述如下: 一、马尔萨斯人口论多数同志一致认为,马尔萨斯的人口论,从整体来看,理论上是错误的,政治上是反动的。然而,其中的具体观点,则有不同的评价。马尔萨斯人口论中,有没有可以肯定的部分? 一种意见认为,马尔萨斯人口论从总体上说虽然反动,但还是有可以肯定的合理成分,不应全盘否定。首先,马尔萨斯人口论提出了人口与生活资料必须相适应这个一般规律,是不能忽视的。其次,马尔萨斯指出人口有不断增长的趋势,这已为很多国家人口发展的事实所证明。再有,马尔萨斯还指出,在人口不断增长的趋势下,必须采取保     

我国有计划地控制人口同马尔萨斯人口论根本对立

当前,在人口理论讨论中,有个总的问题需要澄清:我国有计划地控制人口增长和马尔萨斯人口论是不是一回事?所以需要澄清这个问题,有来自理论和实践两个方面的原因。从理论上讲,马尔萨斯主张迟婚、不婚、抑制生育、减少人口,我们则主张晚婚、晚育、少生、控制人口,好象未脱马尔萨斯主义的巢臼。从实践上讲,五十年代末,我国有学者提出节制生育、控制人口的正确主张,却被错误地扣上马尔萨斯主义帽子,致使很长一段时期内视人口问题为禁区,不敢拿人口和生活资料的增长对比,不敢谈论节制生育,不敢谈论控制人口,怕有马尔萨斯主义之嫌。所以,七十年代,一当我国正式提出控制人口的政策,就有同志弄不清楚了:这是不是马尔萨斯人口论?还有,我国在很长的时期内未能实现毛主席和     

陈独秀评马尔萨斯人口论

陈独秀(公元1879年——1942年)字仲甫,安徽怀宁人。他的政治主张曾在中国社会产生过很大的影响,是我国近现代史上的著名人物。一九二○年四月,陈独秀在《新青年》杂志上,发表了《马尔萨斯人口论与中国人口问题》一文,系统地阐述了自己的人口思想。他是我国最早运用马克思主义的观点,批判马尔萨斯人口理论,提出解决中国人口问题的学者。因此,分析和研究陈独秀的人口思想,对     

马克思和恩格斯研究人口问题的方法——纪念马克思逝世一百周年

马克思离开我们整整一百年了。马克思与恩格斯一起创立的马克思主义的学说,使社会主义从空想变为科学。马克思主义学说为各国无产阶级政党指导工人运动,争取社会主义,实现无产阶级专政作出了伟大的贡献。 马克思、恩格斯在领导无产阶经革命和创立无产阶级革命理论的过程中,运用唯物辩证法和唯物主义历史观,继承了前人对人口问题研究的科学成果,对资本主义社会的人口问题和人口理论进行科学研究,并在批判马尔萨斯反动人口论的基础上,提出了一整套为认识人口、人口过程、人口发展以及人口与社会、经济、自然的辩证关系的基本方法和原则。     

报刊人口资料篇名索引

(1983年1月至4月)从理论上认清基本国策许涤新健康报1.27谈谈社会对生育的控制萤杰‘刚七日报1.28马克思主义人口理论的实践和发展张秀娟 大众日报1..21学习马克思人口理论,搞好计划生育解书森等 青海日报2.2论马克思在人口理论上的一个重大贡献朱日强 新乡师范学院学报增刊用计划生育来反对马尔萨斯人口论吴斐丹遗作 复且学报第2期继承和发展马克思主义两种生产的理论肖恒 宁砚大学学报第王期洪亮吉的人口见解李绍平湖南日报3.2人口价值观初探张文贤社会科学研究第1期马克思人口理论和社会主义人口规律解书森等 经济向题探索第3期马克思论…     

学习《资本论》中的人口理论——纪念马克思逝世一百周年

马克思在他的划时代的巨著《资本论》以及《〈政治经济学批判〉(1857—1858年草稿)》等著作中,解剖共产主义社会经济形态,并对马尔萨斯“人口论”进行了彻底的批判,科学地论述了人口理论的基本原理。今天,我们学习《资本论》中的人口理论,对科学理论的发     

马克思主义人口理论在中国的传播与发展

<正> 1840年鸦片战争以后,中国进入了半封建、半殖民地社会,帝国主义、封建主义、官僚资本主义三座大山的压迫,使旧中国的人口问题日益严重。许多资产阶级、小资产阶级知识分子,开始向西方学习人口学,但是,他们所舶来的基本上是马尔萨斯的人口论及其变种。马尔萨斯人口论在中国的传播,是适合反动统治阶级的利益的,它的矛头是针对广大劳动人民的。代表无产阶级和广大人民群众利益的先进分子逐步认识到:要     

Demography in China: from zero to now

After 20 years of neglect the study of population and demography in China have come to be considered imperative. China has even accepted $50 million from the UN Fund for Population Activities to defray the cost of the 1982 census and help pay for action, training, and research programs. Institutions directed toward population studies have been established in many provinces during the 1970s. The principal types are population training and research institutes and offices within institutions of higher learning. In addition institutes outside the system of higher education and special units of population studies in various medical colleges were initiated. Between 1957-77 the large increase in population began to cause economic problems which were not admitted until the late 1970s. Since 1979 the country's efforts to lower the level of fertility have been organized in major policy statements calling for 1 child/couple and a rate of natural increase causing zero population growth by the year 2000. The Institute of Population Research was created in 1974 and it has provided population projections that have helped form population policy with a major focus on historical stages of growth in China as well as counteracting the lopsided population optimism which existed earlier. In 1978 a conference was held on the science of population theory which identified areas for study such as: 1) population and economics, 2) capitalist population theories, 3) population policies, 4) family planning and economics, and 5) population problems in foreign countries. The author describes some of the literature which was published after the 1978 conference and the reappearance of academic journals in 1979 as well as the 1979 conference. 1980 and 1981 studies dealt with such topics as debates on Malthusian theory, zero population growth, urban and rural populations, historical demography, housing, employment, health improvement of the population, minorities, and fertility determinants. Chinese scholars have also begun to cooperate with their foreign colleagues in a variety of studies. In order to illustrate the wide variety of directions which Chinese population studies are taking the author provides a bibliography of population studies from 1977-81.     

J. R. Hicks on the Economics of Population

Sir John Hicks (1904–89), professor of political economy at Oxford University from 1952 to 1965, was one of the foremost economists of his time, making notable contributions to the theory of wages, general equilibrium theory, and welfare economics. He received (jointly with Kenneth Arrow) the 1972 Nobel prize in economics. Value and Capital (1939), his best-known book, is held as a classic; his 1937 exegesis of Keynes's General Theory has long been a staple of undergraduate economics. Population does not figure appreciably in his writings, although an almost offhand footnote attached to the concluding paragraph of Value and Capital suggests that it could have: “[0]ne cannot repress the thought that perhaps the whole Industrial Revolution of the last two hundred years has been nothing else but a vast secular boom, largely induced by the unparalleled rise in population.” (He added: “If this is so, it would help to explain why, as the wisest hold, it has been such a disappointing episode in human history.”) In his late work, A Theory of Economic History (1969), however, the principal driving force in economic development is depicted as the expansion of markets. A sustained discussion of the topic of population by Hicks is contained in one of his earlier books. The Social Framework: An Introduction to Economics (Oxford University Press, 1942). Chapters 4 and 5 of this book treat “Population and Its History” and “The Economics of Population”; one of the appendixes is “On the Idea of an Optimum Population.” Chapter 5 and this appendix are reprinted below. The Social Framework was written as an introductory text, although its lucid style characterized all of Hicks's work. It covered both theory and applications with particular attention to the then novel subject of national accounting. Hicks described the book as “economic anatomy” in contrast to the “economic physiology” of how the economy works. Chapter 5 gives equal attention to under- and overpopulation, both seen as posing dangers. The Preface to the 1971 (fourth) edition of The Social Framework notes that the population and labor force chapters “have been rather substantially altered—to take account of the curious things that have happened in these fields (which one might have expected to be slow moving).” In 1971 he is more cautious than in 1942 about suggesting that slowing population growth might have been a factor in the 1930s depression, and readier to admit of countries where “a continuing rise in population, even while there is some continuing agricultural improvement, is likely to lead in the end to unemployment and destitution.” The appendix on optimum population was retained through all editions.     

On some theoretic issues about planned control of population]

There are basic differences between Marxian and Malthusian population thought: 1) For Marx, population is a social phenomenon--human reproduction belongs to social production and population laws are social laws influenced by the means of production. Marx recognized that human reproduction had both a natural and a social relationship, but Malthus population theory only acknowledges the natural relationship of human reproduction. Malthus believed that if population grows without interference, it will double every 25 years, or geometrically. It is evident Malthus substituted biological possibilities for the objective inevitability of population evolution, and natural population laws for social population laws. 2) Marx believed that social production is the unification of material production and human reproduction. Material production is controlled and necessitates control of human reproduction. For Malthus, the growth of the means of subsistence never catches up with the growth of the population, but Marx said that even though land is limited, the development of production forces is limitless. Marxist theory postulates that man is basically a producer, but that population must be planned because not everyone is a producer (e.g., children and the unskilled). 3) Malthus believed that in capitalistic countries unemployment, famine, and poverty stem from too many births by the laboring class, i.e., population determines the economy. The only solution to population problems is to have fewer children. For Marx, economics determines population problems.     

国际人口迁移理论述评

最近二三十年,由于种种原因,国家间人口迁移日益频繁,众多学者不断提出关于国际人口迁移的各种理论学说,主要涉及迁移的动力机制和后续延伸,具体包括新古典主义经济学派、新家庭经济学派、双重劳动力市场理论、世界体系理论、网络理论、机构理论和“连锁因果关系”观点等。这些理论各有所侧重,综合起来基本上可以解释复杂多样的国际人口迁移现象。不过,不免存在一定的局限性。     

中国劳动力流动的一般性与特殊性研究

近年来,劳动力在地区间抑或城乡间的流动成为劳动经济学、发展经济学,乃至产业经济学和区域经济学的重要研究课题。从世界经济的发展经验与规律来看,这种流动是经济发展过程中必然出现的经济现象。然而,在中国,劳动力流动呈现出何种特征？与世界发达国家以及其他发展中国家具有什么样的共性？又具有哪些差异化的内涵特征和理论含义？这构成本文研究的核心主题,以期弥补已有研究在这一领域的不足乃至空白的现状,更期望为中国劳动力流动的经济效应、福利效应以及相关的制度安排与宏观经济政策等方面的研究奠定基础并有所启示。     

开发人力资本 提高我国农村人力资源质量

在现代经济学中,完整的“资本”有两种形式:一种是物质资本,另一种形式是人力资本。在现代经济的众多场合,人力资本甚至发挥着比物质资本更为重要的作用。我国农村人力资源存在着量多质低的现状,根据人力资本理论,以提高农村人力资源质量为目标,探讨农村人力资源开发的途径。     

人口老龄化、人口增长与经济增长——来自中国省际面板数据的实证证据

利用一个包含人力资本的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,从索洛增长理论入手,分析人口老龄化和人口增长率对经济增长的影响,理论模型的推理结果表明人口老龄化和人口增长对经济增长均产生不利影响。再根据理论模型的结果构造了人口老龄化和人口增长影响经济增长的实证模型,收集和使用中国1990～2008年的省级面板数据对理论模型的推理结果进行实证检验,证实了理论模型的推理结果。实证研究还表明:(1)初始的人均GDP对经济增长的影响为负,说明中国的区域经济发展出现了条件收敛的情形;(2)人力资本投资、储蓄率和劳动参与率对经济增长有着显著的正向促进作用。     

Population and Resources: An Exploration of Reproductive and Environmental Externalities

This article identifies four types of social externalities associated with fertility behavior. Three are shown to be pronatalist in their effects. These three are exemplified by the way theories of economic growth treat fertility and natural resources, the way population growth and economic stress in poor countries are seen by environmental and resource economists, and the way development economists accommodate environmental stress in their analysis of poverty. It is shown that the fourth type of externality, in which children are regarded as an end in themselves, can even provide an invidious link between fertility decisions and the use of the local natural‐resource base among poor rural households in poor countries. The fourth type is used to develop a theory of fertility transitions in the contemporary world; the theory views such transitions as disequilibrium phenomena.     

新疆人口数量变化能否促进经济增长？--基于VEC模型的动态实证研究

为了研究新疆人口数量变化能否促进经济增长,本文在生态环境承载力、劳动力边际产出和人口理论方面论述了人口数量变化与经济增长的相互作用机理,在此基础上通过VEC模型对人口数量、人均GDP和财政预算收入进行动态研究,结果为：长期人均GDP和人口数量成正向关系,弹性为0.33,但财政预算收入却因人口数量的增加而呈现小幅度降低,弹性为0.09。短期内人均GDP与人口数量成反向关系,财政预算收入的增加反而能够促进人口数量的增加。     

The Marxist outlook on population]

Marxist population theory and world population are discussed. From his study of capitalist population theory Marx concluded, "In capitalist reproduction, poverty produces population," thus rejecting Malthusian population determinism theory and developing economic determinism. According to UN statistics, world population has stabilized since the middle of this century after having doubled every hundred years for the last 300; population in the developed countries showed a positive decrease and average net population growth of the developing countries also decreased. The premise of this paper is that population grows according to social economy development. During the last several hundred years, world wealth increased much faster than population; in the last 200 years alone, the population has increased fivefold, but wealth fortyfold. In addition, world population analysis reveals an inverse relationship between wealth and population in the developed and developing countries: the poorer the country, the greater the population. From this perspective, the study of population must begin with surplus labor. Accumulation of surplus production is the foundation of continuous social development and the basis for population growth. The major difference in methods between capitalist countries and China is that the capitalist-planned fertility affects the individual family while Chinese-planned fertility has the whole nation in mind. Human fertility is determined by the economic system. Private ownership determines the private nature of fertility and public ownership determines the public nature of fertility. Thus population development is determined by the accumulation of social wealth.