WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state‐by‐state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. (JEL H0)     

DOES A GOOD CENTRAL BANKER MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

The personalities of central bankers moved center stage during the recent financial crisis. Indeed, several central bankers even became “superstars.” In this article, we investigate whether superstar central bankers have an impact on economic performance. We employ school grades given to central bankers by the financial press, defining as superstars those central bankers receiving the top grade. First, we explain the grades in a probit estimation with measures of economic performance, institutional features, and personal characteristics. Second, we employ a matching approach to account for the endogeneity of grading with respect to economic performance. Using entropy balancing, we identify credible counterfactuals for top‐graded central bankers, that is, nonsuperstar central bankers who face similar situations. Comparing the economic performance of both groups, we find that superstars do indeed matter: a top‐graded central banker faces a significantly more favorable output‐inflation tradeoff than his peers. This effect is driven by outstanding central bankers in both advanced and emerging economies and is especially prevalent in the precrisis subsample. (JEL E52, E58)     

THE SUPPLY OF INFANTS RELINQUISHED FOR ADOPTION: DID ACCESS TO ABORTION MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

Motivated by a theory of desired fertility I use three years of aggregate state level data to examine the impact of abortion access on the supply of infants relinquished for adoption. I show evidence that abortion access affected the supply of infants relinquished during the 1980s in two different ways. First, the availability of abortion providers has the expected effect of reducing the supply of infants relinquished, particularly relative to the demand for abortion. Second, abortion law has an unexpected negative effect. This suggests that as abortion laws become more restrictive the total number of unwanted births may decrease. ( JEL J13)     

DOES ACADEMIC TRAINING BACKGROUND MAKE A DIFFERENCE AMONG PRACTICING MARRIAGE AND FAMILY THERAPISTS?

Using a national sample of practicing marriage and family therapists (MFTs) and their clients, this study investigated whether academic training background is associated with differences in pracice patterns and client outcomes. Clinical members of the American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy with academic training in psychology, social work, counseling, and marriage and family therapy were compared on a wide range of clinical practice variables, and their clients were surveyed about thier satisfaction and outcomes. Results showed highly similar practice patterns and client outcomes across all four disciplinary groups. Although the findings showed little evidence for the uniqueness of academic marriage and family therapy training among experienced MFTs, they also refute the notion that therapists trained in MFT degree programs practice in unusual or inferior ways compared to MFTs trained originally in other mental health disciplines.     

DO REEMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS FOR THE UNEMPLOYED WORK FOR YOUTH? EVIDENCE FROM THE GREAT RECESSION IN THE UNITED STATES

We present experimental evidence on the effects of four U.S. reemployment programs for youth unemployment insurance (UI) recipients during the Great Recession. The three programs that emphasized monitoring and service referrals reduced UI receipt but had minimal effects on employment and earnings; these programs mainly induced the early exit of participants. The fourth program, which combined mandatory job counseling with monitoring, caused the largest reductions in UI receipt and clearly increased employment and earnings. Both early participant exits and effective job counseling underlie these impacts. We conclude that policymakers should require job counseling for youth UI recipients during recessions. (JEL J0, J6, H4)     

HOW DOES GLOBALIZATION AFFECT THE IMPLICIT TAX RATES ON LABOR INCOME,CAPITAL INCOME,AND CONSUMPTION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION?

This article analyzes the effects of globalization on implicit tax rates (ITRs) on labor income, capital income, and consumption in the EU15 and Central and Eastern European New Member States (CEE NMS). We find supportive evidence for an increase in the ITR on labor income in the EU15, but no effect on the ITR on capital income. There is evidence of convergence in terms of the ITR on consumption, as countries with higher than average ITR on consumption respond to globalization by decreasing their tax rates. There are important differences among the welfare regimes within the EU15. Social‐democratic countries have decreased the tax burden on capital, but increased that on labor due to globalization. Globalization exerts a pressure to increase taxes on labor income in the conservative and liberal regimes as well. Taxes on consumption decrease in response to globalization in the conservative and social‐democratic regimes. In the CEE NMS, there is no effect of globalization on the ITR on labor and capital income, but we find a negative impact on the ITR on consumption in the CEE NMS with higher than average ITR on consumption. (JEL H23, H24, H25, F19, F21)     

DO GENDER‐VARIANT PREFERENCES FOR COMPETITION PERSIST IN THE ABSENCE OF PERFORMANCE?

The well‐established gender gap in preferences for competition has been attributed to gender‐variant feelings about performing in competitive environments. Using a novel task with agency, in which subjects experience competition but cannot perform, we find evidence that performing may be sufficient but not necessary to generate gender‐variant preferences for competition. This suggests that the gender‐gap cannot be eliminated by correcting beliefs alone; that eliminating performance—for example, routinizing tasks—may not eliminate the gender gap; and that there may be heretofore unidentified determinants of preferences for competition—for example, men may prefer payment schemes that are based on social comparison. (JEL J16, C91, J24)     

THE EARLY BIRD GETS THE WORM? BIRTH ORDER EFFECTS IN A DYNAMIC FAMILY MODEL

Birth order effects are found in empirical work but lack solid theoretical foundations in economics. Our new modeling approach to children provides this. Each child’s needs change as it grows, and births are sequential. Each child has the same genetic makeup and parents do not favor one child over the other. Parental childcare time lowers the caregiver’s current and future wages; this opportunity cost varies across time. Benefits also vary and when parental childcare is a public input, coresident children allow economies of scope in childcare. Birth order effects emerge from the changing benefits and costs. (JEL D13, D91, J13)     

THE POLITICS OF MOTHERING IN A “MIXED” FAMILY: AN AUTOETHNOGRAPHIC EXPLORATION

Interweaving excerpts from her personal journal with research and literature about mixed race, interfaith, and bicultural experience, Nora Lester Murad uses autoethnographic methods to explore the experience of mothering in an American–Jewish and Palestinian–Muslim family. She pushes theoretical discussion beyond the experiences of “mixed” people to consider how the identity of otherwise monoracial/ monocultural parents may be transformed through the experience of parenting across socially/politically significant differences, particularly, national origin, culture, and faith. She also extends theoretical discussion beyond the confines of identity to consider parenting as a political process with an impact within and beyond families.     

MARKET POWER AND COLLUSION IN THE OCEAN SHIPPING INDUSTRY: IS A BIGGER CARTEL A BETTER CARTEL?

The regulatory structure of the ocean shipping industry allows carriers to enter into joint pricing agreements (conference agreements) that are free from antitrust scrutiny, and requires freight rates to be published and policed by a government agency. We test whether this regulatory structure leads to the exercise of market power, and identify whether that market power resides with conferences themselves or requires the participation of carriers outside the conference. The results suggest that liner conferences are not particularly effective cartels although some market power may exist in ocean shipping. Market concentration may be a contributing factor to this market power. (JEL L12, L43, L92, K21)     

WORKING WITH PIERRE BOURDIEU IN THE TOURISM FIELD MAKING A CASE FOR ‘THIRD WORLD’ TOURISM

Tourism in the ‘third world’ is seen as a consumption of culture, and attempts at investigating it within a cultural studies framework have not adequately addressed key social and cultural aspects. Bourdieu's analytical legacy which is significant as a cultural legacy is largely misappropriated. This article, reviewing recent research in cultural studies in tourism, highlights and critically interrogates the treatment Bourdieu's theory has received in tourism studies. Arguing that Bourdieu's sociological framework is often misinterpreted, this article sketches out the key components of a Bourdieusian approach to a cultural analysis of tourism. Reflexive return in tourism research remains largely unexplored. This conceptual paper emphasizes the significance of working with Bourdieusian methodological approach and explores the possibilities of employing a reflexive sociology in tourism studies. The paper further highlights the difficulties of pursuing such a theoretical approach and proposes the need to accommodate recent theoretical and empirical challenges to Bourdieu's paradigm.     

HOW DOES INFRASTRUCTURE AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? INSIGHTS FROM A SEMIPARAMETRIC SMOOTH COEFFICIENT APPROACH AND THE CASE OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN CHINA

This paper attempts to shed new empirical light on infrastructure's role in economic growth using a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to avoid specification problems in some existing studies and admit infrastructure‐induced nonlinearity and parameter heterogeneity. Estimated by a three‐step procedure that controls for endogeneity in both the regressors and the environmental variable (infrastructure), the model is applied to the empirical context of telecommunications infrastructure in a fast‐growing economy, China. The results reveal that telecommunications contribute to output through various sources, namely its neutral and non‐neutral impacts. The total/net effect is positive but largely decreases with telecommunications stocks. (JEL L96, O4, O1)     

CAN'T BUY ME LOVE? A FIELD EXPERIMENT EXPLORING THE TRADE‐OFF BETWEEN INCOME AND CASTE‐STATUS IN AN INDIAN MATRIMONIAL MARKET

A large body of literature depicts that status‐based discrimination is pervasive, but is silent on how economic incentive interacts with such discrimination. This study addresses this question by designing a field experiment in a reputable arranged marriage market that is prone to strong caste‐status‐based discrimination. We place newspaper advertisements of potential grooms by systematically varying their caste and income and focus on responses of higher‐caste females to lower‐caste males. The substantive finding is that despite the evidence of discrimination, discriminatory behavior of higher‐status females decreases with an increase in the advertised monthly income of lower‐status males. (JEL C93, J12, J15)     

TOO CLOSE IN OR TOO FAR OUT — LEARNING TO HOLD THE ROLE OF OBSERVER: TUTORS' INTRODUCTION TO A SOCIAL WORK STUDENT'S REFLECTIONS ON HER EXPERIENCE OF LEARNING THROUGH CHILD OBSERVATION

In this and a second linked paper (Natasha Quitak ‘Difficulties in Holding the Role of the Observer’), social work tutors and a former student examine the learning which can come from the experience of infant and child observation in social work qualifying training. The ability to hold the role of observer is an essential skill for social work which can to a large extent be learned. It involves finding a distance close enough to experience the feelings involved in the child's relationships but far enough out to be able to think about them. Difficulties in managing the anxieties involved in the task may be linked to students' own familial and cultural patterns of relating. Attachment theory and psychodynamic thinking provide the theoretical underpinning for learning.

This first paper is written from the perspective of the social work tutor.