企业转产项目风险模糊评价系统研究

本文建立了企业转产项目递阶层次结构风险评价指标体系,分析了评价指标体系单风险因素隶属函数值的确定方法,最后定性与定量相结合,给出了企业转产项目风险的模糊综合评价系统模型.     

基于递阶生产系统投入产出模型的企业生产经营决策优化应用的研究

本文基于递阶生产系统投入产出模型,以某锦纶厂为应用背景,在建立销售结构优化模型的基础上,对企业销售结构优化、企业内部潜力挖掘和产品定价等几个方面的经营决策优化问题进行了探讨,并进行了成功的实践。     

集成定性推理的IDSS结构模型研究

分析了智能决策支持系统 (IDSS)在高层决策中存在的不足 ,提出了应用从定性到定量集成的“递阶分解”方法 ,探讨了将人工智能领域发展起来的定性推理理论集成到 IDSS的体系结构 ,并介绍了智能问题处理功能模块的流程     

播音与主持艺术专业五级递阶式教学模式改革研究

针对地方本科院校播音与主持艺术专业人才培养的现状,从实践经验出发构建了以实践为主体的复合型人才培养模式,实现复合型人才培养需要创新教学模式,播音与主持艺术专业的五级递阶式教学模式分为理论阶段、课堂模拟实践阶段、校内自主实践阶段、校外指导实践阶段、实习基地自主实践阶段五个部分。开展五级递阶式教学模式改革,不但增强了学生的实践效果,同时促进了就业的多元化。     

浅论旅游产业可持续发展评价方法——基于层次分析法

本文基于层次分析法(AHP)的基本原理,根据旅游产业可持续发展评价的现实需要,构建了旅游产业可持续发展评价指标体系的递阶层次结构,并利用层次分析法确定各个指标的权重,最后通过对指标值归一化处理计算旅游产业可持续发展综合指数。     

集成投入产出模型和知识推理企业潜力挖掘分析的探讨

本文基于递阶生产系统投入产出模型,在针对具有"产品链"特点的具体应用背景给以"个性化"处理的基础上,给出了利用知识推理进行企业"最佳"销售结构分析的方法,并采用该方法对某锦纶厂企业潜力的挖掘分析,进行了成功的实践.     

基金预算分配理论与方法研究

本文首先对预算分配理论的发展过程及其相应的方法论（系统科学、管理科学）进行了归纳研究，分析了我国国家自然科学基金预算分配系统的现状。在此基础上，研究了适合我国国情的科学基金预算分配准则和分配方法，建立了基金预算分配的交互式三层协调目标规划模型，提出了递阶协调算法。     

基于层次分析法的企业财务风险综合评价

首先对企业财务风险进行界定和分析，构建企业财务风险的多层次递阶结构模型；随后简要介绍层次分析法的基本原理，给出利用层次分析法评价企业财务风睑的具体实施步骤；最后通过一个例子对研究成果进行说明，表明作者所给出的方法能够对企业财务风险的管理提供定量化决策支持。     

网上一口价在线拍卖的定价策略设计

网上一口价拍卖作为网络拍卖的创新模式,打破了传统拍卖的局限,得到商家的广泛应用,但是一口价的最优设定问题一直没有得到很好解决.该文首先在独立私有价值模型下,研究了持久一口价拍卖中买卖双方的Stackelberg主从递阶决策过程,证明了持久一口价拍卖存在临界估值,并求出了最优持久一口价.针对竞买人估值分布无法预知的实际情...     

基于组合权的分层递阶模糊综合评价方法研究

本文提出了基于“功能驱动”和“差异驱动”分层递阶模糊综合评价模型，结合了主观定权和客观定权的优点不仅具有公开透明性，还在一定的程度上保证了继承性。     

Hierarchical network systems: An application to high-technology industry in China

In real world situations, there is a hierarchical structure exists in a specific organization and each component has its network process. However, such hierarchical network system has not been well studied in previous literature, and misleading results often are produced. The current paper discusses a data envelopment analysis (DEA) modelling technique for a network structure where a hierarchical system consists of components having two-stage series processes. An additive network DEA is proposed to evaluate the performance of this type of network structure. The overall and divisional efficiencies of the system and each component can be derived, and the relationship between system efficiency, divisional efficiency and the ones of components is discussed. The newly developed additive network DEA is nonlinear and cannot be converted into a linear program. A semidefinite programming (SDP) approach is developed for effectively solving this model and the global solution can be guaranteed. Another linear multiplicative network DEA also developed for this hierarchical system. The two newly developed models are illustrated with a case of the performance evaluation of high-technology industry in China.     

基于分层网络的机动时间研究

现有网络计划技术的研究主要针对单层网络,难以有效地指导大型项目的生产。原因在于大型工程项目生产过程复杂,工序成千上万,给对应的网络图描述带来了极大的困难。然而,通过网络分层技术则能把一个复杂的网络分解成多个简单的子网络,即将大型网络过渡到几个简单的单层网络,继而利用单层网络技术对其进行分析。本文依据大型网络的构建过程提出简化组合模型,将多层次复杂网络转化为多个单层次简单网络,在此基础上给出分层网络机动时间的计算公式。最后通过一个实例验证了此方法的正确性和可行性。     

Efficiency measurement for hierarchical network systems

The conventional data envelopment analysis (DEA) models for measuring the relative efficiency of a set of decision making units (DMUs), without considering the operations of the component processes, often produce misleading results, and network models have thus been recommended. This paper discusses the development of a network DEA model for systems with a hierarchical structure. It is shown that the hierarchical structure is equivalent to a parallel structure, with the components being the units at the bottom of the hierarchy. Due to the characteristics of a parallel system, the efficiency of a hierarchical system is thus a weighted average of those of the units at the bottom of the hierarchy. A hypothetic example shows that the proposed model is able to distinguish the order of the efficient DMUs evaluated by the conventional DEA model. Moreover, it provides the efficiencies of the functions of the DMU, which enables managers to identify areas of weakness, and thus better focus efforts to improve overall performance.     

Efficiency decomposition in network data envelopment analysis with slacks-based measures

Conventional data envelopment analysis (DEA) treats the production system as a black box when measuring efficiency, ignoring its internal structure. By taking the operations of the component processes of the system into consideration, several network DEA models have been developed. Of these, the slacks-based measure (SBM) approach has attracted much attention for its ability to provide suitable efficiency measures, especially for weakly efficient production units. This paper proposes a general SBM model for network systems, and is able to decompose the system efficiency into a weighted average of the process efficiencies. This relationship holds for all types of network structure. An example shows that the network model has stronger discriminating power than the conventional black-box model, and the system efficiency is indeed a weighted average of the process efficiencies. The decomposition of the system efficiency helps identify key factors to improve the performance of a production unit.     

Vulnerability assessment of strait/canals in maritime transportation using fuzzy evidential reasoning approach

The safety and security of straits and canals have been playing an important role in maritime transportation. The disruption of a strait or canal will lead to increased transportation costs and world trade problems. Therefore, an advanced approach incorporating fuzzy logic and an evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm is developed to conduct the vulnerability assessment of straits or canals in this paper. A hierarchical structure is first developed taking into account both qualitative and quantitative factors. The fuzzy rule-based transformation technique is applied to convert quantitative factors into qualitative ones, which enables the application of a fuzzy ER method to synthesize all the information from the bottom to the top along the developed hierarchical structure. The software of intelligent decision system (IDS) is used to facilitate the process of vulnerability assessment. The developed framework then is validated and demonstrated in a case study for vulnerability prioritization which can be used as a reference to ensure the safety and security of straits and canals for decision-makers.     

Physician Utilization of Computers:

This study demonstrates how social network analysis can be used to identify the underlying communication and influence structure that affects the diffusion of the use of a computer-based medical information system among physicians. Interviews, hospital records, and computer system tapes were used to collect data on referrals, consultations, and practice characteristics from 24 physicians who comprise a private group practice. Multidimensional scaling was used to spatially represent the referral and consultation network among the physicans. Also, several indices that measure structural characteristics of the network and practice characteristics of physicians were derived. Four groups of physicians were identified who have similar computer utilization patterns and who perform similar roles within the network. The results indicate that the use of network analytic techniques to study complex physician networks may provide new insights into the diffusion process.     

Risk assessment based on a STPA–FMEA method: A case study of a sweeping robot

Despite rapid developments in the quality and safety of consumer products, the rise of intelligent household appliances, such as sweeping robots, has introduced new safety concerns. Considering “person–product–environment” elements and the complex systems of emerging consumer products, this study presents a new method of risk assessment for consumer products: systems theoretic process analysis (STPA)–failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA). As a case study, this method is applied to the safety control of a sweeping robot. The results suggest that this method can identify all the possible failure modes and injury scenarios among the product components, and the safety constraints in the hierarchical control structure of the interactive system. Moreover, the STPA–FMEA method combines user and environmental factors with the value of product risk events, based on the risk priority number (RPN). This provides an accurate and orderly system to reduce or eliminate the root causes of accidents and injuries. Finally, analysis of unsafe control behavior and its causes can be used to suggest improved safety constraints, which can effectively reduce the risk of some injury scenarios. This paper presents a new method of risk assessment for consumer products and a general five-level complex index system.     

基于韧性城市视角的冰雪天气下路网恢复问题研究

城市的快速发展使其愈加依赖于生命线基础设施系统,城市在自然或人为突发事件面前的脆弱性日益凸显,城市面对突发事件后的运行与恢复问题受到广泛关注。冬季极端冰雪天气对城市路网系统带来极大冲击,严重降低路网服务能力。本文基于韧性城市视角,对冰雪天气下城市路网韧性的概念和度量方法进行了分析。以提升路网韧性为目标,建立冰雪天气下路网恢复问题的数学模型,解决极端冰雪天气不确定信息下的城市路网除雪应急物资布局问题及其除雪作业优化问题,并设计了相应的启发式求解算法。最后通过算例验证了模型和算法的有效性,以期为城市冰雪天气应对提供决策支持,提升城市应对极端冰雪天气的韧性。     

居民旅游影响感知的模糊综合评价

为研究旅游对旅游目的地的影响,将模糊综合评价的方法应用到居民旅游影响感知的研究之中,设计居民旅游影响感知的评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,经过聚集各指标模糊矩阵和去模糊的过程,对居民的旅游感知进行测量,并以九寨沟居民对旅游影响的感知为例对该方法给予说明。     

一种基于证据理论的动态综合效绩评价实用方法

本文针对一体化管理体系综合绩效的多指标、多层次、评价标准模糊,且属性复杂等评价特点,建立了综合绩效评价体系;提出了基于证据理论的动态综合模糊评价方法;给出了具体的评价步骤;按指标属性将评价指标区分为定性和定量两类:对各指标进行量化、一致性和无量纲化处理;从评价体系准则层开始进行动态立体综合评价;逐层合成综合绩效值.最后通过实例说明该方法的实用性和科学性.