Misdirection on the road to Shangri-La

Will life expectancy in the United States rise or fall in this century? The implications of either scenario are far reaching. We contend that the rise of childhood obesity in the United States in the past three decades has been so dramatic that it will soon lead to higher than expected death rates at middle ages and a possible decline in life expectancy by midcentury. The most detrimental health and longevity effects will not be seen for decades--a phenomenon that cannot be detected by current methods used to forecast life expectancy or estimate the number of deaths currently attributable to obesity. This scenario contrasts sharply with the views of mathematical demographers who generate forecasts by relying on the assumption that the U.S. pattern of longevity will follow that of other longer lived nations and on the extrapolation of historical trends in life expectancy into the future.     

The future of human longevity--how important are markets and innovation?

In a hearing before the United States Senate Special Committee on Aging, a well-respected demographer warns that there is no evidence of slowing in the long-term rise in best-practice life expectancy in developed countries. The author discusses how these findings will affect the future of Social Security and argues for a larger, more focused effort with respect to longevity research by demographers, epidemiologists, and economists.     

Future mortality: a bumpy road to Shangri-La?

Americans are getting fatter, and it is known that increased obesity may increase the risk of death. Olshansky et al. have argued that this increase in obesity will likely slow, or even reverse, increases in life expectancy in the United States and perhaps save U.S. Social Security as a result. We discuss historical changes in the mortality rate and the reasons why other analyses argue that life expectancies will continue to increase. We also discuss the limitations of using single risk factors such as obesity as predictors of mortality risk. Finally, we explore the relation between risk factors and the long-term historical increase in human life expectancy.     

Obesity over the life course

Obesity in middle-aged humans is a risk factor for many age-related diseases and decreases life expectancy by about 7 years, which is roughly comparable to the combined effect of all cardiovascular disease and cancer on life span. The prevalence of obesity increases up until late middle age and decreases thereafter. Mechanisms that lead to increased obesity with age are not yet well understood, but current evidence implicates impairments in hypothalamic function, especially impairments in the ability of hypothalamic pro-opiomelanocortin neurons to sense nutritional signals. The rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity at all ages in the past decade suggests that, in the next two or three decades, diseases associated with obesity, especially diabetes, will begin to rise rapidly. Indeed, these trends suggest that for the first time in modern history, the life expectancy of people in developed societies will begin to decrease, unless the rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity can be reversed.     

Living Longer and Paying the Price?

Over the past century, there have been tremendous increases in longevity in the United States and most other developed countries. If these trends continue, the costs of paying for public programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will escalate at a startling rate with the aging of the "baby boomer" generation. A meeting titled "Living Longer and Paying the Price?" was organized to consider whether current trends in longevity will continue at the current pace, accelerate, or decelerate as a result of public health problems such as obesity and infectious diseases. Further, speakers presented their views on covering the costs of public and private programs for future generations of older adults.     

A SILVER LINING? THE CONNECTION BETWEEN GASOLINE PRICES AND OBESITY

I find evidence of a negative association between gasoline prices and body weight using a fixed effects model with several robustness checks. I also show that increases in gas prices are associated with additional walking and a reduction in the frequency with which people eat at restaurants, explaining their effect on weight. My estimates imply that 8% of the rise in obesity between 1979 and 2004 can be attributed to the concurrent drop in real gas prices, and that a permanent $1 increase in gasoline prices would reduce overweight and obesity in the United States by 7% and 10%.     

Inequality as an Explanation for Obesity in the United States

Over the past several decades, there has been a sharp increase in obesity across all population groups in the United States. In fact, the United States has one of the highest rates of obesity compared to other countries throughout the world. Obesity has become a national public health concern because it is related to a number of negative health, social, psychological, and economic outcomes. It is particularly concerning because racial/ethnic minorities and populations with the least education and highest poverty rates bear the largest burden of obesity. In addition, disparities in obesity tend to be gendered, with women experiencing the largest disparities in obesity by income, education, and race/ethnicity. In this review, I describe how social inequality is linked to obesity in the United States. I highlight elements of disadvantage at the individual‐, family‐, school‐, and neighborhood‐level that are linked to energy intake and expenditure, which are directly related to obesity, and draw from evidence and theories from multiple fields of the social and medical sciences. I also highlight the important role stress may play in linking disadvantage to obesity, particularly for women. I argue that understanding the complex mechanisms and processes that link social inequality to obesity requires multidisciplinary and multilevel frameworks.     

Optimum taxation of life annuities

The market for private life annuities is characterised by adverse selection; that is, contracts offer lower than fair payoffs to individuals with low life expectancy. Moreover, longevity and income have been found to be positively correlated. We formulate an optimum income taxation model that incorporates these facts and discuss the conditions under which a linear tax on annuity payoffs, which raises more revenues from long-living individuals than from short-living, can serve as an instrument for redistribution. Further, we consider a nonlinear tax on annuity payoffs, and find that it can be employed to correct the distortion of the rate of return caused by asymmetric information.     

Marital relationships as a cause of death: an analysis of occupational mortality and the hidden consequences of marriage--some U.K. data.

The relationship between a married woman's life expectancy and the occupation of her husband is explored using official data for the United Kingdom for 1959-1963 and 1970-1972. The author notes that not only are there large and specific effects of employees' occupations on life expectancy and mortality rates, but that these mortality differentials also affect the spouses of those in high-risk occupations. It is suggested that such occupational risks are transmitted via the domestic psychological environment to the married women concerned, and thus the males' job risks affect the life expectancy of both partners.     

Real men do not read labels: the effects of masculinity and involvement on college students' food decisions

Consumer literature shows that a decision's degree of personal importance and relevance--one's level of involvement in the decision--indicates which type of intervention strategy will be effective in influencing consumers' choices. The authors surveyed 358 college students at a state university in the western United States to test the applicability of involvement on issues of obesity and eating habits. They found food decisions to be of greater personal importance and relevance to female students than to their male counterparts. The results suggest that efforts to address levels of obesity and being overweight among male college students must recognize that men's food choices are very much rooted in the ideology of what it means to be female and male in contemporary American society. The authors advance 5 peripheral-route intervention strategies to augment existing cognitive-oriented, information-based intervention programs.     

The future of marriage and hispanics

At least two important demographic changes will occur in the United States in the future: the growth of the Hispanic population and the growth of the second and third generations among Hispanics. We argue that the expansion of the Hispanic population is unlikely to slow the retreat from marriage, despite the pronuptial cultural orientations of some groups of immigrants and their native‐born coethnics. On the contrary, the second‐ and third‐generation descendents of immigrants will join in the retreat from marriage as a result of their exposure to the cultural and economic environment of the United States, as well as changes in the countries from which their immigrant parents originate. Sources of uncertainty about this scenario are noted.     

INTERPROFESSIONAL RELATIONS AND THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW PROFESSION: Software Engineering in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada

This article explores the conditions under which interprofessional relations may be characterized by conflict and/or cooperation through a case study of the rise of a software engineering (SWE) profession in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. Analysis of professional journal publications produced by the primary computing organizations in all three countries reveals that the development of a SWE profession in the United Kingdom, and to a lesser extent, the United States, has been a collaborative project pursued by engineering and computing organizations. In contrast, the development of SWE in Canada has been characterized by intense interprofessional conflict. The investigation suggests that interprofessional conflict may be mitigated when professionalizing groups seeking to lay claim to the same jurisdiction are similar in terms of their organizational size, outlook, and regulatory status.     

Co-morbidity in prostate cancer

With the widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, prostate cancer has become the mostly common diagnosed malignancy in the United States. Because prostate cancer preferably affects elderly males and usually progresses slowly, there is an increasing interest in the significance of co-morbid conditions complicating the course of the disease. Several scores have been applied to assess the co-morbidity in newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients and to estimate the impact of concomitant diseases on survival. Patients in their eighth decade of life, diagnosed with well or moderately differentiated localized prostate cancer and suffering from severe co-morbidity, are likely to die of causes other than the malignancy. Clinical trials evaluating different treatment modalities for localized prostate cancer need controlling and stratification for age and co-morbidity. The life expectancy of patients with only one controlled concomitant disorder, however, is not significantly compromised and the management of these patients remains controversial.     

Understanding the Russian Health Crisis: a Sociological Perspective

This essay applies a sociological perspective to the health crisis in Russia by delving increasingly deeper into the layers of causes. The major characteristic of this crisis is the decline in life expectancy among men and the relative stagnation of longevity among women. The primary cause is increased cardiovascular disease and alcohol-related poisoning and accidents. However, in order to determine the ultimate cause, it is necessary to examine secondary level factors to explain what is responsible for the rise in heart disease and alcohol-based afflictions. Several secondary factors were considered, including infectious disease, poor medical care, environmental pollution, policy, and stress, but the strongest evidence supported negative health lifestyles. The next step is find what is causing a lifestyle harmful to male health in particular and while stress is likely important – the best tertiary level cause is the deeply embedded working-class style of heavy drinking that is normative in Russia.     

The Unrealistic Educational Expectations of High School Pupils: Is America Exceptional?

There is growing concern that many American teenagers hold unrealistic educational plans. This may indicate a detachment from reality, which could be detrimental to well‐being in later life. But is this problem specific to certain countries like the United States, or is it common among young people from across the developed world? This article uses data from the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) to investigate this issue. It shows how expected and actual college graduation rates differ across a number of countries but also that this gap is particularly large in the United States. Additional analysis suggests that this is being driven, at least in part, by the large proportion of low‐achieving American children who believe they will go on to obtain a bachelor's degree. The implications of these findings are discussed in reference to educational policy and contemporary sociological debates.     

论中美全球战略利益的兼容性与中美中东合作

中美在亚太地区战略利益存在一定的结构性矛盾,但双方的安全竞争具有低烈度性,处于可控范围内;在中东地区,中美战略利益存在结构上的互补性,双方在防扩散、反恐、反海盗、维护自由通航、确保能源供应安全、维护海湾等中东国家的局势稳定等方面,尽管存在分歧,但拥有共同利益和认知。中东既是美国全球霸权的三大战略地区之一,也是中国"大周边外交"的组成部分,是中国运筹大国关系的支点和平台。未来中美在中东的战略协作将继续在结构性互补的框架下展开。双方需要以开展中东热点外交为抓手,拓展中美在中东战略利益的兼容性,使全球视野下的中美战略合作拥有更加稳定的平台。     

Does sex age you?

The evolution of aging and longevity has typically been considered to be a resolution of the conflicting demands on an organism to grow, reproduce, and survive. When social or environmental factors change the opportunities for reproduction in a way that affects differently aged individuals, there will be an evolutionary response in the schedule of senescence. This means that social dynamics can have an important effect on aging. A recent study by Berec and Boukal has shown that the dynamics of mating and divorce can also affect observed life spans through their effect on population dynamics. If females cannot find and maintain mating pairs for long enough to replace themselves, the population will become extinct. This puts a lower limit on the levels of longevity that will be observed in nature.     

Canadians' support for radical life extension resulting from advances in regenerative medicine

This paper explores Canadian public perceptions of a hypothetical scenario in which a radical increase in life expectancy results from advances in regenerative medicine. A national sample of 1231 adults completed an online questionnaire on stem cell research and regenerative medicine, including three items relating to the possibility of Canadians' average life expectancy increasing to 120 years by 2050. Overall, Canadians are strongly supportive of the prospect of extended lifespans, with 59% of the sample indicating a desire to live to 120 if scientific advances made it possible, and 47% of respondents agreeing that such increases in life expectancy are possible by 2050. The strongest predictors of support for radical life extension are individuals' general orientation towards science and technology and their evaluation of its plausibility. These results contrast with previous research, which has suggested public ambivalence for biomedical life extension, and point to the need for more research in this area. They suggest, moreover, that efforts to increase public awareness about anti-aging research are likely to increase support for the life-extending consequences of that research program.     

Life Expectancy, Schooling Time, Retirement, and Growth

I analyze how changes in life expectancy affect retirement age, education time, and growth rates of economies. I set up a continuous time, overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with externalities in human capital production. I find that increases in life expectancy give rise to first, higher retirement ages and second, higher education spans. A threshold level for life expectancy exists such that per capita growth rates follow an inverted U pattern.