Education,employment, and fertility in Kinshasa and prospects for changes in reproductive behavior

This paper examines fertility behavior of women in Kinshasa, Zaire's capital city with a population of roughly four million. We look at relationships linking women's education, employment, and fertility behavior (children ever born, age at first marriage, contraception, abortion, breastfeeding, and postpartum abstinence), using data from a 1990 survey of reproductive-age women. Other things equal, there are significant differences by educational attainment and by modern sector employment in lifetime fertility and in most of the proximate determinants as well. The results suggest that modern contraception and abortion are alternative fertility control strategies in Kinshasa, with abortion appearing to play an important role in contributing to the observed fertility differentials by education and employment. The dramatic increases that have taken place in women's access to secondary and higher education are likely to reduce fertility in the future, while the effects of Zaire's current economic and political crisis are uncertain. Our findings are consistent with some of the arguments of Caldwell et al. (1992) on a new type of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. If Zaire seeks to lower fertility, policy efforts should be made to soften the impact of economic crisis on school enrollments and enhance opportunities for young women to remain in school, at least well into the secondary level. Policy should also seek to promote more effective marketing and delivery of modern family planning services, so as to induce women to substitute modern contraception for abortion as a means of controlling their fertility.     

Measurement of the quality of family planning services

The quality of health services is a subject of increasing interest to health care providers and organizations responsible for financing and promoting health services. The importance of the client's perspective (and by inference, the perspective of potential clients, as well) is now well established, but efforts to define and measure quality have thus far been limited to the perspective of experts even when the experts claim to speak for the clients. In this paper we utilize family planning programs to explore issues of the quality of health services. We propose that a better understanding of the view of quality actually held by family planning program clients will clarify the influence of quality on the use of services, a clarity that has not been possible by looking at quality only as defined by providers, managers or experts. We review the literature on quality of services and identify the gaps in research that must be filled if a better understanding of what quality is and how it relates to service outcomes is to be obtained. A first step must be the research required to develop a set of measures of quality that reflects the multi-dimensional nature of quality, includes the clients' view of services in the definition of quality, and incorporates methodologies required to ascertain the true view of clients. Finally, we suggest that dimensions of quality identified as important for clients as a group will be more predictive of use of services than dimensions identified as important to providers.     

On opulence driven poverty traps

Endogenous population growth, i.e., making the rate of population growth dependent on society's opulence, causes parametric changes to have a larger impact and can cause multiplicity of steady states in a dynamic intertemporal optimization framework. This provides a simple explanation for the possibility of differing growth paths between countries (using a standard production function) or another explanation of the poverty trap. We give two examples (opulence sensitivity and production sensitivity) that both give rise to three steady states in which poor (rich) countries will evolve over time to the low (high) income steady state. In both examples there are middle income countries that will choose the low (high) income steady state if they are impatient (patient), where patience is measured through the rate of time preference o. Foreign aid in the form of a large transfer of capital from abroad enables poor and impatient middle income countries to move to the high income steady state.We would like to thank Nico Heering, Martijn Herrmann, Theo Junius, Ngo van Long, Ad Pikkemaat, John Pitchford, Lakshmi Raut, Casper de Vries, an anonymous referee, participants of workshops at the University of Groningen and the University of Amsterdam and especially Harry van Dalen for valuable comments. The article was presented at the fifth annual conference of the European Society of Population Economics, Pisa 1991. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the World Bank.     

Have the relative employment prospects for the low-skilled deteriorated after all?

Has the relative unemployment propensity for the low-skilled increased during the 1990s? We address this question empirically, based on two notions of low skills; i) low education, and ii) low ability, conditioned on education and work experience. Ability is identified by previous earnings. Evaluated by the education-based measure, we find that unemployment propensity has not developed unfavourably for the low-skilled. Evaluated by the ability-based measure, it has. We uncover a steady deterioration of employment prospects for persons with low ability relative to others with similar formal qualifications. The adverse employment effects of being low-skilled are stronger the higher is formal education.All correspondence to Knut Røed. The paper is part of the project Sorting, exposed groups and labour market programs financed by the Research Council of Norway. We wish to thank Rolf Aaberge, Paul Gertler, Harald Goldstein, Karl Ove Moene, Jon Strand, Steinar Strøm, Asbjrn Rødseth and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Application of Granger-Sims causality tests to monthly fertility data, 1958–1984

When applied to monthly age specific data, Granger-Sims causality tests provide a useful technique for identifying the effective lag between business cycles and fertility in the United States. Male and female monthly age specific unemployment rates are used as a proxy for the business cycle, and test results are presented for first and higher order birth rates, as well as total age-specific monthly fertility rates. The period is subdivided (January 1958 – May 1973 and June 1973 – December 1984) in order to identify possible trends. Four results hold in all cases studied, with respect to the relationship between unemployment and fertility. (1) Noncausality is rejected in the direction from unemployment to fertility, and no feedback effect is indicated; thus the relationship is one of simple causality. (2) In the critical decision period from 9–16 months prior to realized fertility rates, the sign of the effect of unemployment on fertility is negative: this holds for both male and female unemployment rates. (3) There appears to have been a shortening of the effective lag between unemployment and fertility, of perhaps 2 – 3 months, between periods 1 (1959 – 1973) and 2 (1973 – 1984). (5) The strength of the (negative) relationship between unemployment and fertility appears to have increased from period 1 to period 2.Presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Chicago, April 30, 1987. This paper has benefitted from discussions with and comments by Andrew Weiss, Clive Granger, Lee Ohanian and Pietro Balestra, and from comments by two anonymous referees. For help in obtaining previously unpublished data, the authors are grateful to Stephanie Ventura (NCHS), G. P. Goings (BLS) and Paula Schneider (Bureau of the Census). Financial support was provided by the University of Southern California     

Environmental Effects on Family Size Preferences and Subsequent Reproductive Behavior in Nepal

This study investigates the relationship between environmental degradation and men and womens family size preferences and subsequent reproductive behaviors in Nepal. We draw on unique environmental data at the local level, household and individual-level survey data and individuals reproductive behavior over a 3 year time period in Western Chitwan Valley, Nepal. Results from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic regression models show that poorer environmental quality and greater reliance on publicly owned natural resources are associated with higher family size preferences and higher rates of pregnancy. The analyses provide support for the vicious circle argument that environmental degradation can lead to rising population growth via positive effects on fertility. As environmental conditions decline and when households rely on public lands for natural resources, men and women desire larger family sizes and women are more likely to get pregnant in the near future.     

Fertility Policy and Employment: Implications from the Former Soviet Union

Using individual-level survey data that were collected in Russia in 1993, we analyze the fertility-employment relationship for a sample of urban women who bore children during the Soviet era. Although some Russian policy makers advocate policies that reduce female employment to stimulate fertility, we find little empirical support to ensure success of these policies. Specifically, we find no connection between employment and fertility for our sample of Russian females, perhaps because of their historic, mandated commitment to the labor market. Instead, we find that demographics and attitudes influence fertility decision making. These results, in combination with the findings that our sample of Russian women hold more traditional attitudes toward family and egalitarian attitudes toward work than similar American women, suggest that policies to stimulate fertility by reducing employment may not be effective for women raised during the Soviet era unless a dramatic shift in attitudes away from a strong work commitment also occurs.     

Fertility in China 1982–1990: Gender equality as a complement to wealth flows theory

Some scholars claim there is little variation in Chinese fertility because of coercive family planning policies. This research, however, demonstrates that other factors contribute to significant variation in fertility rates among China's 30 provinces/administrative divisions. Although family planning and socioeconomic development are found to explain significant amounts of variation in fertility for both the 1982 and 1990 census cross-sections, it was also found that gender equality in education had become significant by 1990. Path model results that lag the effects of 1982 socioeconomic development and gender equality in education also indicate that they both have sizable direct effects and moderate indirect effects through family planning behavior on 1990 fertility rates. Discussions include the possibility that the recent free market and institutional reforms, e.g., the decollectivization of agriculture, have contributed a social structure whereby many Chinese families have increased awareness of the opportunity costs associated with their reproductive decision making.     

Reflections on sustainability,population growth,and the environment

The related terms, sustainable and sustainability, have become popular and are used to describe a wide variety of activities which are generally ecologically laudable. At the same time, the term compromise is heard more frequently because the needs of the environment often are in conflict with the needs of humans. A brief examination of the question of compromise shows that a series of ten compromises, each of which saves 70% of the remaining environment, results in the saving of only 3% of the environment. Judging from the ways in which the terms sustainable and sustainability are used, their definitions are not very precise, especially when compromises are involved. An attempt is made here to give firm definition to these terms and to translate the definition into a series of laws and hypotheses which, it is hoped, will clarify the implications of their use. These are followed by a series of observations and predictions that relate to sustainability.     

The welfare effects of labour force growth with internationally mobile capital

The effects of labour supply growth on the welfare of preexisting destination and non-emigrating source populations are analysed. This growth occurs in open economies where free trade in capital goods is possible. Traditional small economy arguments for population growth rely on the existence of priced though internationally immobile factors. When all factors are freely-traded and population grows naturally the case rests either on market distortions or common property within families. In an integrated world labour growth can lead to capital flight and increasing wage differentials. With international interactions, immigration increases preexisting welfare in destination countries but generally (not always) reduces it for non-emigrants in source countries. Immigration provides efficiency gains to all originally resident in source countries. Natural population growth anywhere promotes efficiency gains everywhere.     

Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessments of Societal Metabolism: Integrating Biophysical and Economic Representations Across Scales

The crucial challenge for integrated analyses of socioeconomic systems is keeping coherence in their multidimensional representation. Our approach describes the hierarchical structure of socioeconomic systems using the profile of allocation of human activity over a set of compartments defined at different hierarchical levels (e.g., whole countries, economic sectors, individual households). Compartments are characterized in terms of intensive variables (intensity of both exosomatic energy flows and added value flows per unit of human activity) and the extensive variable Total Human Activity population. In this way, relations of congruence across hierarchical levels can be used to link non-equivalent analyses. That is, changes in demographic variables, economic variables, technical coefficients, indices of environmental loading, institutional settings, and social aspirations are no longer independent of each-other even if described within different scientific disciplines.     

Household fertility responses following communism: Transition in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

In central Europe fertility fell during transition from centrally planned to market oriented economies. Families reevaluated fertility plans facing new wages, reduced child-care subsidies, and economic uncertainty. Using micro-data from 1984 and 1993 in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, this paper relates fertility changes following Communism to wages, pricesand risks. Earnings have little impact on fertility timing during transition, though age, job uncertainty, and children conceived during Communism do. In the Czech Republic, changed fertility demand parameters account for much of thefall in fertility. In Slovakia a sizable proportion results from predictable responses to changed incentives.I would like to thank my Czech collaborators Pavel Mahonn, Petr Mateju, and Jiri Vecernk for enabling this empirical work to proceed; T. Paul Schultz, and Jenny Hunt and seminar participants at Yale University, the NEUDC, and the Population Association of America annual meetings and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. I am also indebted to the Mellon Foundation Area Studies Grant program for financial support allowing field work on this topic. I am wholly responsible for all errors. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

A simple method for projecting or estimating α and β: An extension of the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model

This paper proposes a simple method that analytically links the parameters and , which are not demographically interpretableand measurable in the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model, with demographic measures of median age and interquartile range. We also extend the Brass model that deals only with age-specific fertility to age-parity-specific fertility, first marriage, divorce, remarriage, and leaving the parental home. The method has been successfully tested by fittings to 180 reliable observed demographic schedules in various countries and periods, and to nearly 10,000simulated schedules with various combinations of possible values (including the extremes) of and . Our proposed method that uses median age and interquartile range instead of and as input is useful in the population and family household projections. It releases the traditionalunrealistic assumption in population projections that the curve of the fertility schedule moves to the right or left in a parallel way. Instead, using our proposed method, one can assume that the demographic events would be delayed or advanced, while the curve becomes more spread or more concentrated, or, more specifically, assume that young people delay the events more than the older persons do, or vice versa. Our proposed method is also useful to formulate assumptions on future demographic trends for purposes of policy analysisand planning. It can be used to indirectly estimate demographic schedules when the detailed age-specific data are not currently available, which is useful for developing countries and sub-region studies in developed countries. A crucial point for a successful application of the method is that the standard schedule chosen can capture the general pattern of the demographic process in the population under study.     

Constructing a Quality of Life Scale for Older Chinese People in Hong Kong (HKQoLOCP)

This paper reports a multi-stagestudy carried out between 1999 and 2001 whichaimed to develop an instrument to address theneed for a culturally relevant measure ofquality of life for Chinese older persons inHong Kong and similar communities. The firststage of the research involved a focus groupstudy conducted in August 1999 which it washoped would reflect how quality of life maybe interpreted by older persons themselves. Thenext stage, a content analysis of the focusgroups, enabled the construction of aquestionnaire containing over 100 items onvarious aspects of quality of life (QoL). Thequestionnaire was reviewed by a panel ofexperts and the items were refined and reducedto 86 to which were added a further 25 itemsfor socio-demographic background. This formedthe initial instrument. The final stage was avalidation study based on a representativecommunity survey, with a sample of 3,000respondents drawn for the research team by theCensus and Statistics Department of the HongKong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR)Government. The survey yielded 1,616 successfulinterviews with older persons aged 60 or above.The careful stratification of the sampleenabled us to say that subjects in all thestages of the survey had broadly similarcharacteristics to the general Hong Kongelderly population in sex and age distribution.After a rigorous process of validation, theresearch team recommended the adoption of bothan index and six domains for measuring HongKong older persons QoL. The new scale containsa total of 21 items which can be grouped intovarious domains: subjective well-being, with 4items; health with 5 items; interpersonalrelationships with 6 items; achievement-recognition with 4 items, finance and livingconditions (1 item each). The overall QoL scalehas a Cronbachs alpha of 0.72 with its domainsranging from 0.65 to 0.77 which indicates ahigh degree of statistical reliabilities. Thename recommended for the scale was Hong KongQuality of Life for Older Persons Scale-abbreviated as HKQoLOCP.     

Migrant stock vs. lagged migrant flow as a determinant of migrant settlement. A comment on Anjomani and Hariri

In a recent contribution to this Journal Anjomani and Hariri present an interesting study of United States interstate migration which explicitly incorporates so-called flow diversion and flow creation effects. Their discussion and evaluation of the model, however, are marred by several factors. This paper contrasts the roles of migrant stock and lagged migration in migration analysis and then addresses (a) the problems encountered when the family-friends effect is proxied with measures of lagged migrant flows, (b) the problem of using a two-period lagged value of earlier migrant flow as an explanatory variable, and (c) this paper suggests an alternative method of correcting the Anjomani-Hariri model's problems with multicollinearity.The author is grateful to Walter J. Wadycki and to David A. Macpherson for helpful comments and suggestions. The author, of course, bears full responsibility for all errors that remain. This research benefited from a grant from the Miami University Committee on Faculty Research.     

Social Development Trends in the Middle East, 1970–1997: the Search for Modernity

The nations of the Middle East have arrived at a historic crossroad.Anchored in centuries-old political and economic systems, bitterethnic rivalries, recurrent intra-regional warfare, and risingfundamentalism, the majority of the regions countries haveremained largely apart from the transformative processes that areshaping development in other world regions. Indeed, the impressionexists that no development miracles are occurring in theMiddle East and that, to a very great extent, the region isseeking to remain on the sidelines of modern history. And,yet, if the countries of the Middle East are to flourish in thenext century they, too, must restructure themselves for dealingwith the complex realities associated with increasing globalizationand internationalization. This paper reports on the socialdevelopment successes and failures of 22 Middle Eastern countriesbetween 1970 and 1997. Also identified are the regions SocialLeaders (SLs), Socially Least Developing Countries (SLDCs),and Middle Performing Countries (MPCs). The social, political,and economic factors most closely associated with each countrysdevelopment classification are identified.     

Transnational Grannies: The Changing Family Responsibilities of Elderly African Caribbean-Born Women Resident in Britain

This paper explores the role and position of grandmothers in African-Caribbean families resident in Britain. The data used for this paper comes fromm a sample of 180 life-history interviews collected in 1995–1996 from three generations of Caribbean-origin people living in Britain and the Caribbean. Findings from this research suggest that African-Caribbean grandmothers resident in Britain have come to play a less active role within their immediate family compared to earlier historical periods. At the same time however, these grandmothers have come to take on a more a transnational emissary role for their family and kin located throughout North America and Europe. Caribbean-born grandmothers appear to be using more modern means for fulfilling certain traditional tasks like child shifting, story telling or acting as a social safety net. Using their agency African Caribbean-born grandmothers have been able to carve out new niches for themselves despite changes in family structure brought about by migration and settlement patterns in Britain.     

Tribal membership requirements and the demography of ‘old’ and ‘new’ Native Americans

This paper examines the twentieth-century population recovery of Native Americans with reference to urbanization, intermarriage, and differing definitions of the Native American population from census and tribal enrollment data. The recent increase in the Native American population reflected in regular US decennial censuses since 1960 is discussed in terms of changing self-identification of individuals as Native American. Also discussed are criteria for enrollment in Native American tribes, particularly blood quantum requirements. Census enumerations are compared with tribal enrollment data, and it is illustrated that a large proportion of those identifying as Native American in the census are not enrolled in Native American tribes. Special attention is given to how Native American tribal enrollment criteria might impact future population size.     

Population in context: A typology of environmental driving forces

This paper presents a typology and qualitative model of causation for use in assessing the relative contributions of population growth to problems of pollution, lost biodiversity, and natural resource depletion. Population growth is placed in context as one of eight key driving forces that shape environmental quality today. It is treated primarily as an impact amplifier, along with technology. Root causes are traced to paradigmatic beliefs—especially anthropocentrism and contempocentrism—which find expression in unsustainable consumption patterns and designs of political economy.