邓小平出席联合国特别会议前后

联合国总部决定将于1974年4月9日召开联合国第六届特别会议．研究原料和发展问题。由于这是中国恢复联合国常任理事国席位后首次派遣高级代表团出席的大会，对谁来担任代表团团长的问题中共中央高度重视。当时．中央政治局在讨论代表团团长人选上还进行过一番激烈的争论．最终中央决定让刚刚复出不久、时任国务院副总理的邓小平率团参加会议。     

联合国会议的『新花样』

在联合国工作的各国外交官中流行着这么一句俗语:"美国的税多,联合国的会多."     

围绕“国家主席”问题的争吵——九届二中全会上的一场风波

1970年8月23日至9月6日,在庐山召开的九届二中全会上,林彪反革命集团出于篡夺国家最高权力的目的,一再坚持设国家主席,坚持称毛泽东为天才,并与江青一伙相互争斗、倾轧,掀起一股恶浪。党中央和     

一场蓄谋已久的阴谋

这次机票涨价，没有看见民航总局的官方文件，也就是说这次机票涨价是企业行为，而不是政府行为。众多航空公司同时涨价，这是什么现象？毫无疑问，是价格同盟，是垄断联合     

一场欢乐的家宴

<正>2007年12月18日,一个吉利的日子。这一天,四川省绵阳市绵州大酒店门前,锣鼓喧天,彩旗飞扬,花簇篮拥,彩球漂空,一派欢乐。全川一百多名闽商代表缘着同样的血脉相聚在这里,共同庆祝四川省福建商会第三个市级分会——绵阳市代表处(分会)成立,共同祝福这里的300多家闽企有了自己的"家"——一个未来充满温馨和关爱的家。这是全体旅川闽商的一件喜事!这是四川省福建商会又一次欢乐温馨的家庭盛宴!四川省政协经济委主任辜伸江携手四位副主任秦万祥、王永策、朱明亮、陈国良来了!     

一场祸国殃民的追逐

关于明星代言的种种,消费者似乎听得太多太多,从广告刚推出时,消费者的兴奋,再到问题广告后,消费者从当初的兴奋过渡至了今天的麻木,这其中的真真假假,正如雾里花,水中月,让人摸不着也看不清其真实面目。在流行广告轰炸的今天,揭穿明星代言的面纱,试问,又有几个明星代言的广告经得住现实的探视?     

一场特殊的比赛

教育教学中难免遇到这样那样的困难,但要真正解决问题,不能一味只要求学生,教师要主动融入学生的生活,走进学生的心灵,从内心深处去感动他们,并积极参与他们的活动,才能取得事半功倍的效果     

一场官场饭局的解读

正×年×月×日,陈教授因公到某市出差,见到了多年的老同学唐经理,晚上唐经理为老同学接风洗尘,并邀请了李科长、曾主任、王秘书、张局长、李局长五人于晚上6:30在×市×酒店×包厢吃饭。品味这场官场饭局,不难看出官员的到场顺序反映出官员权力的大小;称呼后面玩的是面子游戏;酒是官场饭局的精华所在;吃腻了山珍海味反而觉得土豆好吃则是对官员的一种绝妙讽刺。到场顺序:权力大小的反映官员迟到:看似无意实则是摆官谱。官员迟到,司空见惯、习     

An Examination of a Theory of Embodied Social Presence in Virtual Worlds*

In this article, we discuss and empirically examine the importance of embodiment, context, and spatial proximity as they pertain to collaborative interaction and task completion in virtual environments. Specifically, we introduce the embodied social presence (ESP) theory as a framework to account for a higher level of perceptual engagement that users experience as they engage in activity‐based social interaction in virtual environments. The ESP theory builds on the analysis of reflection data from Second Life users to explain the process by which perceptions of ESP are realized. We proceed to describe implications of ESP for collaboration and other organizational functions.     

邓小平经济领导思想的创新

邓 小平 经 济领 导理 论是 邓 小 平 而给 整个 民 族和 国 民经 济 带 来 了沉 领 导和 企 业领 导等 中 观 与 微观 的 领理论的重要组成部分。他在领导我国重的 灾难 。 导 问题 时 ,都 不能 不 服 从 和服 务 于社会主义经济建设的过程中 ,成功地1957年 以后出现 的一些 失误和 邓 小平 的 整个 宏观 领 导 思 路, 即 整实现了两大历史性转变,即党 和国家 挫 折 ,特 别 是 “文 化 大 革 命 ”十 年 动 …     

Virtual Teams versus Face-to-Face Teams: An Exploratory Study of a Web-based Conference System*

Many organizations are forming “virtual teams” of geographically distributed knowledge workers to collaborate on a variety of workplace tasks. But how effective are these virtual teams compared to traditional face-to-face groups? Do they create similar teamwork and is information exchanged as effectively? An exploratory study of a World Wide Web-based asynchronous computer conference system known as Meeting Web™ is presented and discussed. It was found that teams using this computer-mediated communication system (CMCS) could not outperform traditional (face-to-face) teams under otherwise comparable circumstances. Further, relational links among team members were found to be a significant contributor to the effectiveness of information exchange. Though virtual and face-to-face teams exhibit similar levels of communication effectiveness, face-to-face team members report higher levels of satisfaction. Therefore, the paper presents steps that can be taken to improve the interaction experience of virtual teams. Finally, guidelines for creating and managing virtual teams are suggested, based on the findings of this research and other authoritative sources.     

考虑消费者策略行为的供应商产品升级策略

随着科技的发展和市场竞争的加剧,企业不断频繁地进行产品升级更新以应对消费者快速变化的需求;同时,消费者也越来越具有策略性行为,主要表现为跨期选择购买产品的类型和时机。本文考虑消费者策略行为研究供应链上游供应商的最优产品升级策略,分析捆绑、模块化和整合三种产品升级策略中消费者的购买决策和供应链企业的均衡定价决策。研究表明：当消费者耐心程度和升级模块的价值升级系数满足一定条件时,供应商将选择模块化升级策略,相对于捆绑升级策略,将获得更高的利润;而只有当消费者耐心程度较小时,采用整合升级策略相对于其他两种升级策略更有利于提高利润。     

Inventory Sharing in the Presence of Commodity Markets

This study investigates the value of inventory sharing in the presence of spot and forward markets. We consider a multi‐period setting where two firms process a common commodity to meet stochastic demands. They can buy and sell the commodity through both the spot and forward markets. They can also share the commodity if one has leftover inventory while the other has excess demand. We first characterize the equilibrium strategies of the two firms. Our analysis reveals that in such a context, the value of inventory sharing is low when the forward price is directly used to value the sharing transactions. We then develop a structured trans‐shipment price scheme that uses a linear combination of the spot and forward prices. We show that this method can substantially increase the value of inventory sharing. Our analysis also reveals that in the presence of liquid spot and forward markets, the value of inventory sharing mainly results from the difference of the transaction costs, and it increases if the market in which firms operate becomes more competitive.     

考虑促销因素的医药电商平台需求预测研究

医药电商平台需求预测涉及到药品自身属性及电商平台推出的各种促销活动,本文针对以上影响药品销量的因素提出了时间序列-机器学习组合模型对医药电商平台进行需求预测。传统研究促销因素的需求预测文献将促销阶段商品销量拆分为常规销量和促销增量的线性组合,本文首先拟合各药品促销阶段的常规销量,根据各药品常规销量时间序列数据及服用周期,使用SARIMA模型拟合药品的常规销量预测值,并将常规销量预测值与商品促销特征数据一同输入XGBoost模型进行集成学习预测。本文使用国内某医药电商平台真实销售数据测试组合模型的有效性,结果显示组合预测模型的预测效果相比其他三种传统预测模型更优。此外,本文验证了不同折扣力度下组合预测模型的有效性,以及促销变量在预测模型中的有效性,同时研究了数据共享策略在需求预测中的应用场景,结果显示预测模型在引入促销变量和采用数据共享策略后都能显著降低模型的预测误差。     

Quantity Flexibility Contract in the Presence of Discount Incentive

We design a new contract, which we refer to as the QFi contract, that combines the quantity flexibility (QF) mechanism and the price‐only discount incentive. Under the QF contract, the buyer does not assume full responsibility for the forecast, yet the supplier guarantees the availability of the forecasted quantity and extra buffer inventory. In contrast, the price‐only discount contract places full inventory burden on the buyer. We show that the proposed QFi contract effectively balances the inventory risk for both the buyer and the supplier considering both the QF and discount mechanisms. We also show that the QFi contract is able to achieve supply chain coordination. More importantly, the QFi contract's coordinating price scheme does not require knowledge of demand distribution. We identify areas where the buyer and supplier may both benefit from implementing the QFi contract as opposed to the extant QF or price‐only (wholesale) discount contractual decisions in a decentralized supply chain. We also specify the conditions under which supply chain coordination can be achieved in a win‐win manner. We conclude with managerial implications and provide directions for future research.     

基于有限理性消费者的竞争性退款保证策略

考虑有限理性消费者的前提下研究了低质和高质零售商关于退款保证的策略竞争。进一步将模型扩展到存在产品质量差异的情形,研究产品质量对双方策略的影响。研究表明:只有当有限理性消费者数量高于一定临界值时,提供退款保证才是有利可图的。在产品质量对称的市场上,零售商关于退款保证的均衡局面为同时提供退款保证,且此时退款保证对低质企业更有利;而在产品质量非对称的市场上,零售商关于退款保证的均衡局面可能为低质企业不提供,高质企业提供或双方同时提供。此时退款保证更倾向于对高质企业有利。     

Procurement Contracts in the Presence of Endogenous Disruption Risk

We consider a manufacturer facing an unreliable supplier with high or low type on initial reliability. The private reliability can be enhanced through process improvement initiated by either manufacturer (manufacturer‐initiated improvement, MI) or supplier (supplier‐initiated improvement, SI). We derive optimal procurement contracts for both mechanisms and find that the moral hazard does not necessarily generate more profit for high‐type supplier. Furthermore, information asymmetry causes a greater possibility of not ordering from low type in SI than MI. For low type, when an upward effort distortion appears in both mechanisms, a decreased (increased) unit penalty should be imposed in MI (SI) compared with symmetric information case. Although possibly efficient effort from the supplier could yield greater channel profit in SI, several scenarios violate this expectation. However, the manufacturer's expected profit in MI is no less than that in SI. When MI is extended to MSI where both manufacturer and supplier can exert effort, the expected profits of two parties are equal to those in SI. We further extend SI to SID, where both process improvement and dual‐sourcing are available. The manufacturer considers the trade‐off between the benefit from diversification and the loss from dual information rent to decide to choose SID or MI. By comparing SID with pure dual‐sourcing, we find that supplier's process improvement could either accelerate or retard the exercise of dual‐sourcing.