Inflation and Presidential Popularity

Current Research: This section of POQ is reserved for brief reports of researchin progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages     

Winning the Presidential Nomination: National Polls and State Primary Elections, 1936-1972

Using the results of 202 Gallup opinion polls and 248 stateprimary elections, this article develops a general model ofpresidential nomination campaigns. National public opinion isfound to play a major role, and state primaries a much lesserrole, in winning the presidential nomination.     

Private Polls and Presidential Policymaking: Reagan as a Facilitator of Change

Did the Reagan administration disregard majority will when craftingits policy initiatives? Did it cater to a narrow partisan constituencyinstead? The answers to these questions will help with an assessmentof Jacobs and Shapiro’s (2000b) hypothesis that presidentssince the late 1970s have used private White House survey researchas a tool to manipulate or assuage centrist public opinion whilemeeting the policy demands of their partisan core supporters,resulting in a decline in presidential responsiveness to majoritywill. Using the actual surveys administered by Richard Wirthlin(Reagan’s pollster) between 1981 and 1983, this articlewill demonstrate the level of consistency between majority opinionon 129 policy issues and Reagan’s behavior through 1984,and it will explore the conditions under which the presidentwas more or less likely to respond to public preferences. Thedata reveal that the Reagan administration was constrained bythe popular will in predicable ways: if the policy issues wereabout domestic concerns, highly popular, and visible in themedia, then the administration acted in line with public preferencesmore than 70 percent of the time. Further, Reagan and his adviserswere selective in responding to party activists: they championedissues drawn from their conservative ideological agenda thatfit with the current tide in public opinion, while sidesteppingother issues dear to party activists that encountered strongmajority resistance. While I do not contest Jacobs and Shapiro’s(2000b) important observation that presidents often use surveyresearch to "craft talk" in an attempt to channel the publicdebate, the evidence here highlights how the president nonethelessremains constrained by the popular will, at least on domesticissues.     

Horse-Race Journalism: Reporting the Polls in the 1976 Presidential Election

Reporting of public opinion polls conformed to a horse-raceimage of campaign reporting during the 1976 presidential election.Journalists avoided prediction, reported segments of the sample,selectively compared results, emphasized spectacles, questionedthe validity of polling, made a few mistakes, and ignored certaindata in their reporting. All these activities reinforced theimage of elections as a sporting event.     

The International Economy and Presidential Approval

There is widespread consensus that the state of the economymatters for presidents' standing in public opinion. To thispoint, however, the economy that has been taken to influencepresidential approval has been exclusively domestic. We showthat the domestic economy continued to matter in the 1990s,but so too did America's international economic performance,as measured by the national trade balance and inflation in theprice of imported goods. We further show that not all tradingpartners are equal in their implications for the president'spublic standing. Disadvantageous trade relations with Canadahave no effect on the president's approval ratings, while similarrelations with Japan depress them significantly. We explainthis difference by patterns of media coverage, showing thatthe volume of media coverage of trade relations with the twocountries has contrasting effects on presidential approval ratings.     

Examining Variance in Presidential Approval: The Case of FDR in World War II

Despite the substantive growth and increasing methodologicalsophistication of the presidential approval literature overthe last four decades, almost all analyses continue to focusexclusively on the mean of the approval distribution—thepercentage of Americans who approve of the president at a givenmoment. However, changes in the variance of popular supportfor the president may be as politically and substantively importantas shifts in the mean. To illustrate how a focus on variancecan enrich our understanding of changes in the president’spublic standing, this analysis examines the effects of the economyand World War II on the variance in popular support for FranklinD. Roosevelt. At the aggregate level, the study shows that highpeacetime unemployment and mounting casualties increased thevolatility of FDR’s standing among federal relief recipients,erstwhile his most consistent base of support. At the individuallevel, the analysis demonstrates that individuals with conflictingpartisan, economic, and war-related considerations for evaluatingthe president were more variable in their approval of Rooseveltthan were other respondents. Exporting a similar focus on varianceto other lines of research across the public opinion subfieldcould produce a richer understanding of the complex processesdriving opinion change over time.     

Public opinion towards gambling and gambling regulation in Australia

In recent years, public opinion towards gambling has become a more important factor in shaping public policy. Using a national public opinion survey conducted in Australia in 2011, this paper examines public opinion towards gambling in general and towards the government regulation of gambling in particular. Australia is an important case study because of the internationally high prevalence of gambling among the public, combined with a strong regulatory framework. Public opinion is measured by a reduced form of a scale first developed in Britain. The results confirm the generally negative views that the public holds towards gambling, which have been found internationally. In addition, the Australian public is open to the introduction of further restrictions on gambling. Overall, the public views the liberalization of gambling as having moved as far as most citizens find acceptable; to meet public expectations, future policies need to address more adequately the negative social consequences associated with problem gambling.     

Is a Questionnaire Necessary in a Second Mailing?

Current Research This section of POQ is reserved for brief reportsof research in progress, discussions of unresolved problems,methodological studies, and public opinion data not extensivelyanalyzed or interpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed,as well as hypotheses and insights that may be useful to otherstudents of public opinion. Usually, material in this sectionis shorter, more informal, and more tentative than in precedingpages.     

Political Information, Party Identification and Voting Defection

This section of POQ is reserved for brief reports of researchin progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages     

The Effects of Newspaper Endorsements onElection Outcomes:A Case Study

Current Research This section of POQ is reserved for brief reportsof research in progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages.     

Opinion Leadership and Television News Uses

Current Research: This section of POQ is reserved for brief reports of researchin progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages     

Random Digit Dialing and Sample Bias

Current Research: Cturent Research This section of POQ is reserved for brief reportsof research in progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages..     

Effect of Interviewer's Voice Intonation

Current Research: This section of POQ is reserved for brief reports of researchin progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages.     

Another View of 'Citizen Feedback' to the Mass Media

Current Research: This section of POQ is reserved for brief reports of researchin progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages     

DIRTY DATA IN BRITAIN AND THE USA: THE RELIABILITY OF "INVARIANT" CHARACTERISTICS REPORTED IN SURVEYS

This section of the Quarterly is reserved for brief reportsof research in progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section will beshorter, more informal, and more tentative than in precedingpages of the Quarterly     

THE MISSING LINK: POLITICAL ACTIVISTS AND SUPPORT FOR SCHOOL PRAYER

Explanations for the wide gap between strong public supportfor school prayer and lack of support in Congress have focusedon the attributes of the public. Here another important explicandis investigated: the characteristics of political activists.We find that activist opinion more nearly matches congressionalbehavior on school prayer than does public opinion. While manyof the same demographic and religious variables explain supportfor school prayer among activists and the public, ideology appearsto be more important among activists.     

Rethinking Public Opinion in Penal Policymaking: Recommendations for Research

Public opinion is often described as a powerful force in penal policymaking in the USA. Unfortunately, research on public opinion in penal policymaking has been limited by inattention to a number of important variables: definitions of public opinion, individual and interpersonal constructions of public opinion by political leaders themselves, state differences in historical contexts and political cultures regarding public engagement and political influence, and diversity in the roles of public opinion at different levels of government. This paper considers current dilemmas in this area of inquiry and reviews recent research in order to highlight potentially fruitful new directions for research.     

当前互联网管理和舆论引导工作存在的问题及对策建议

随着中国社会信息化进程的加速,互联网的发展和普及,原本处于内隐状态的中国社会舆论达到前所未有的外显程度,网络舆论力量日益强大,对我国互联网管理体制和传统的舆论引导带来冲击和挑战。在研判当前我国的网络及网络舆论环境现状的基础上,分析我国网络及网络舆论环境中出现的问题,并针对当前互联网络管理及舆论引导中存在的问题提出建议。     

Fear of the "Alien Other": Cultural Anxiety and Opinions about Japan

American public opinion toward Japan grew more negative coincident with 1980s "Japan-bashing" media messages. Two theories of opinion formation provide explanations for this. Democratic representation theory understands opinions as rational responses to new information. Cultural interpretation theory holds that public opinion is based on one's receptiveness to media discourse. Opinion is neither a rational response to information nor the passive acceptance of elite dictates. People differentially interpret media messages and form opinions in a process that is shaped by media attentiveness and their subjective cultural anxieties. Survey data permit an indirect test of the two theories applied to anti-Japan opinion. OLS regression analysis performed on GSS for four time periods reveals that anti-Japan opinion is rooted less in "rational" responses to personal economic insecurity or fear of increased global competition than in racial attitudes and domestic social-cultural concerns. America's negative opinion toward Japan in the 1990s is better understood as domestic anxieties that are redirected toward a symbolic target that the mass media has highlighted.     

The Poll as a News Event in the 1980 Presidential Campaign

Public opinion polls made up 15 percent of the news events coveredduring the 1980 presidential election campaign, but news storiesgenerated by polls were no more likely to receive better playin the 50 newspapers studied than other stories about the campaign.Horserace polls were popular with editors during the last twoweeks of the campaign.