Infant mortality in London, 1538-1850: a methodological study

A review of evidence on infant mortality derived from the London bills of mortality and parish registers indicates that there were major registration problems throughout the whole of the parish register period. One way of addressing these problems is to carry out reconstitution studies of individual London parishes, but there are a number of problems with reconstitution methodology, including the traffic in corpses between parishes both inside and outside of London and the negligence of clergymen in registering both baptisms and burials. In this paper the triangulation of sources has been employed to measure the adequacy of burial registration, including the comparison of data from bills of mortality, parish registers and probate returns, as well as the use of the same-name technique. This research indicates that between 20 and 40 per cent of burials went unregistered in London during the parish register period.     

The estimation of Chilean mortality (1860-1940): limits and possibilities

The limitations and errors in data sources, primarily censuses and vital statistics, concerning mortality in Chile from 1865 to 1940 are examined. Solutions are offered to adjust the sources' underestimations, particularly with regard to infant mortality.     

The increase in marital status differences in mortality up to the oldest age in seven European countries, 1990-99

We investigate mortality differentials by marital status among older age groups using a database of mortality rates by marital status at ages 40 and over for seven European countries with 1 billion person-years of exposure. The mortality advantage of married people, both men and women, continues to increase up to at least the age group 85-89, the oldest group we are able to consider. We find the largest absolute differences in mortality levels between marital status groups are at high ages, and that absolute differentials are: (i) greater for men than for women; (ii) similar in magnitude across countries; (iii) increase steadily with age; and (iv) are greatest at older age. We also find that the advantage enjoyed by married people increased over the 1990s in almost all cases. We note that results for groups such as older divorced women need to be interpreted with caution.     

Mixed estimation of old-age mortality

"Section 2 will first extend the method of mixed estimation to maximum likelihood estimation in general. Then, we will review generalized linear models with logistic and Poisson regressions as examples. In Section 3 we discuss different approaches for formulating the auxiliary information in practice. Section 4 first reviews the method of Coale and Kisker, provides empirical estimates for it, and then proceeds with the mixed estimation variant. In Section 5 we apply the methods to the estimation of mortality at ages 80+ in Finland in 1980-1993. We will first consider the evidence for mortality crossover between males and females....Then we will estimate life expectancies at age 100." (EXCERPT)     

An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

Abstract In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.     

An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.     

Fertility and mortality estimation from the Panama Retrospective Demographic Survey, 1976

Summary Data from the Retrospective Demographic Survey of Panama offer a unique opportunity to test a wide range of methods for estimating indirectly basic demographic parameters from inaccurate and incomplete data. Our primary emphasis is to evaluate methods for estimating adult mortality from information on widowhood and orphanhood, though estimates of childhood mortality obtained from information on sibling and child survivorship are assessed as well. The results for most of the estimating procedures are consistent; this finding is encouraging because it lends support to the hypothesis that the techniques can provide good estimates of mortality. Methods which produce results which are inconsistent provide valuable lessons. In particular, methods for providing unconditional estimates of values ofl (x) for adults by combining directly information on childhood mortality and adult mortality are shown to produce estimates which predominantly reflect the level of childhood mortality employed. Furthermore, within-method consistency of estimates appears to be a very poor indicator of reliable performance of the estimating technique or quality of data, since most methods yielded estimates which were internally consistent, though estimates made by different methods could differ considerably. In summary, the analysis indicates a birth rate of around 35 per thousand, a death rate of around 7.5 per thousand, a total fertility ratio of about 4.8, and expectations of life at birth of approximately 59 and 64 years for men and women respectively.     

The decline in mortality in British Guiana, 1911-1960

In this paper an attempt is made to describe the pattern of declining mortality in British Guiana between 1911 and 1960. Specifically we identify the disease-specific mortality rates whose declines contributed most to the overall improvement, we consider the possibility that changing economic circumstances may have contributed to the decline in mortality, and we survey the improvements in public health facilities which occurred during the period. Broadly our conclusion is that improvements in public health facilities and not economic advances were responsible for the dramatic decline in mortality which was experienced. Before 1940 these advances took the form of improvements in the quality of the country’s water supplies, in methods of disposing of waste, and in medical facilities especially on the colony’s sugar estates. In addition, there was an advance in the dissemination of information with respect to pre- and post-natal care. In the postwar period British Guiana’s famous D.D.T. experiment was the most important reason death rates continued to fall.     

The estimation of adult mortality in Africa from data on orphanhood

Summary Until recently, very little information has been available about the levels and patterns of adult mortality in tropical Africa, but during the past decade several countries have included questions in censuses and surveys as to whether a person's father and mother are still alive. From the data so obtained, estimates of adult mortality have been prepared. This paper compares the results of three such exercises with alternative estimates of adult mortality derived from other sources. In the case of Chad, the orphanhood data obtained in the demographic sample survey of 1964 yielded estimates of mortality which agreed reasonably closely with those obtained from questions on deaths of household members occurring during the twelve months preceding the survey. The latter data however were themselves subject to substantial errors and had to be corrected using techniques based on stable population theory. For Kenya, the orphanhood questions were included in the 1969 census and the results were compared with the mortality estimates derived from inter-censal survival from 1962 to 1969. Once again, the data obtained from the latter were subject to error but in general appeared to be consistent with the orphanhood estimates. The third comparison was made from Malawi, where alternative mortality figures were available from the Malawi Population Change survey which was a 'dual record' type of operation, conducted in 1971/2. The agreement in this case was remarkably close, once the number of deaths had been corrected for omissions by both systems with allowance for positive correlation. It is concluded that as a simple and inexpensive technique of estimating adult mortality, the orphanhood approach has much to recommend it.     

Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend in mortality

There are three approaches to analyzing and forecasting age‐specific mortality: (1) analyze age‐specific data directly, (2) analyze each cause‐specific mortality series separately and add the results, (3) analyze cause‐specific mortality series jointly and add the results. We show that if linear models are used for cause‐specific mortality, then the three approaches often give close results even when cause‐specific series are correlated. This result holds for cross‐correlations arising from random misclassification of deaths by cause, and also for certain patterns of systematic misclassification. It need not hold, if one or more causes serve as “leading indicators”; for the remaining causes, or if outside information is incorporated into forecasting either through expert judgment or formal statistical modeling. Under highly nonlinear models or in the presence of modeling error the result may also fail. The results are illustrated with U.S. age‐specific mortality data from 1968–1985. In some cases the aggregate forecasts appear to be the more credible ones.     

Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend in mortality

"There are three approaches to analyzing and forecasting age-specific mortality: (1) analyze age-specific data directly, (2) analyze each cause-specific mortality series separately and add the results, (3) analyze cause-specific mortality series jointly and add the results. We show that if linear models are used for cause-specific mortality, then the three approaches often give close results even when cause-specific series are correlated. This result holds for cross-correlations arising from random misclassification of deaths by cause, and also for certain patterns of systematic misclassification....The results are illustrated with U.S. age-specific mortality: (1) analyse age-specific mortality data from 1968-1985. In some cases the aggregate forecasts appear to be the more credible ones." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 407).     

The peculiar pattern of mortality of Jews in Moscow, 1993-95

Russian Jews, particularly men, have a large mortality advantage compared with the general Russian population. We consider possible explanations for this advantage using data on 445,000 deaths in Moscow, 1993-95. Log-linear analysis of the distribution of deaths by sex, age, ethnic group, and cause of death reveals a relatively high concentration of endogenous causes and a relatively low concentration of exogenous and behaviourally induced causes among Jews. There is also a significant concentration of deaths from breast cancer among Jewish women. Mortality estimates using the 1994 micro-census population as the denominator reveal an 11-year Russian-Jewish gap in the life expectancy of males at age 20, but only a 2-year life-expectancy gap for women. Only 40 per cent of the Russian-Jewish difference for men, but the entire difference for women, can be eliminated by adjustment for educational differences between the two ethnic groups. Similarities with other Jewish populations and possible explanations are discussed.     

Plague mortality rates by age and sex in the parish of St. Botolph's without Bishopsgate, London, 1603

Abstract The Bills of Mortality for London were instituted at least as early as 1528 but only a few figures survive before the extant annual series that begins in 1603. Ages at death, even in broad groups of ages, are not generally available until 1728, which is more than 50 years too late to give us any inkling of the ages, if any, at which people were specially susceptible to plague. There are reports, it is true, that suggest that children suffered from plague more severely than adults, at least on certain occasions (as in 1361 or 1418 for example), but nothing more precise. The legend of the Pied Piper of Hamelin may be a folk-memory of a plague (possibly in 1284) that killed mainly the children of the town, for the connection between infestation of rats and the loss of children suggests some kind of plague outbreak. Pollitzer concludes that no particular age group is specially liable to plague, and attributes all differences observed to different risks of exposure. The determinants of the severity of an outbreak would therefore be the environmental details and social customs.     

Plague mortality rates by age and sex in the parish of St. Botolph's without Bishopsgate,London, 1603

The Bills of Mortality for London were instituted at least as early as 1528 but only a few figures survive before the extant annual series that begins in 1603. Ages at death, even in broad groups of ages, are not generally available until 1728, which is more than 50 years too late to give us any inkling of the ages, if any, at which people were specially susceptible to plague. There are reports, it is true, that suggest that children suffered from plague more severely than adults, at least on certain occasions (as in 1361 or 1418 for example), but nothing more precise. The legend of the Pied Piper of Hamelin may be a folk-memory of a plague (possibly in 1284) that killed mainly the children of the town, for the connection between infestation of rats and the loss of children suggests some kind of plague outbreak. Pollitzer concludes that no particular age group is specially liable to plague, and attributes all differences observed to different risks of exposure. The determinants of the severity of an outbreak would therefore be the environmental details and social customs.     

The global and regional impact of mortality and fertility transitions, 1950-2000

During the second half of the twentieth century, world population grew at a record pace, both in absolute and relative terms, from 2.5 billion to 6 billion (or 1.75 percent annually). Demographers have long identified rapid mortality declines as the main explanation. This article finds that one-fourth of today's world population is alive because of mortality improvements since mid-century. Very rapid growth is unlikely to continue as substantial fertility declines also occurred in recent decades. This article finds that already by the year 2000, these fertility declines have almost exactly compensated for the impact of mortality declines from mid-century levels. This result may suggest homeostasis, but analyses of underlying trends contradict this impression. First, the impact of fertility declines will soon and significantly exceed that of mortality declines. Second, that mortality and fertility declines jointly affect the size of the world population by less than one percent conceals a significant impact on the population's age composition as well as on regional population sizes.     

Famine, disease, and mortality patterns in the parish of Borshevka, Russia, 1830-1912

Scholars have projected a dismal image of nineteenth-century, rural Russia as a society repeatedly punctuated by crop failures, famine, starvation, and epidemics of famine-related diseases. But there has been no rigorous attempt, using appropriate methods, to assess the nature of demographic crises in Russia and their contribution to overall mortality and population growth. The pattern of mortality evident in the parish under examination is distinguished by an extremely high incidence of infant, diarrhoeal diseases and childhood, infectious diseases. This unfavourable disease environment and resulting high rates of infant and early childhood mortality were more closely related to fertility levels, household size, housing conditions, and weaning practices than to annual or seasonal food availablity and the nutritional status of the population. In a disease-driven society, the susceptibility to infection and the force of infection can, to a considerable extent, be determined by demographic factors, familial norms, and climatic constraints.     

The fertility,mortality and nuptiality of the Rungus Dusun

One of the authors, when holding the position of medical officer in Borneo carried out an intensive medical survey of the Rungus Dusun. The present paper records the results of analysing demographic data collected during this survey. The number involved was very small ; for instance, only 55 of the women were aged 15 years or over, and thus the findings are subject to considerable sampling error. In the circumstances, it is remarkable that the levels of fertility and mortality estimated to apply to different cohorts should be as consistent as they are.

Sterility amongst the Dusun is shown to be reasonably low and fertility adequate. Such doubt as has been expressed as to their ability to survive is shown to derive from high mortality in infancy and early childhood.

It is hoped that this study may make some contribution to the creation of an adequate body of techniques for studying the demography of such people.