Potential exposures and risks from beryllium-containing products.

Beryllium is the strongest of the lightweight metals. Used primarily in military applications prior to the end of the Cold War, beryllium is finding new applications in many commercial products, including computers, telecommunication equipment, and consumer and automotive electronics. The use of beryllium in nondefense consumer applications is of concern because beryllium is toxic. Inhalation of beryllium dust or vapor causes a chronic lung disease in some individuals at concentrations as low as 0.01 microg/m3 in air. As beryllium enters wider commerce, it is prudent to ask what risks this might present to the general public and to workers downstream of the beryllium materials industry. We address this question by evaluating the potential for beryllium exposure from the manufacturing, use, recycle, and disposal of beryllium-containing products. Combining a market study with a qualitative exposure analysis, we determine which beryllium applications and life cycle phases have the largest exposure potential. Our analysis suggests that use and maintenance of the most common types of beryllium-containing products do not result in any obvious exposures of concern, and that maintenance activities result in greater exposures than product use. Product disposal has potential to present significant individual risks, but uncertainties concerning current and future routes of product disposal make it difficult to be definitive. Overall, additional exposure and dose-response data are needed to evaluate both the health significance of many exposure scenarios, and the adequacy of existing regulations to protect workers and the public. Although public exposures to beryllium and public awareness and concern regarding beryllium risks are currently low, beryllium risks have psychometric qualities that may lead to rapidly heightened public concern.     

Product Quality Risk Perceptions and Decisions: Contaminated Pet Food and Lead‐Painted Toys

In the context of the recent recalls of contaminated pet food and lead‐painted toys in the United States, we examine patterns of risk perceptions and decisions when facing consumer product‐caused quality risks. Two approaches were used to explore risk perceptions of the product recalls. In the first approach, we elicited judged probabilities and found that people appear to have greatly overestimated the actual risks for both product scenarios. In the second approach, we applied the psychometric paradigm to examine risk perception dimensions concerning these two specific products through factor analysis. There was a similar risk perception pattern for both products: they are seen as unknown risks and are relatively not dread risks. This pattern was also similar to what prior research found for lead paint. Further, we studied people's potential actions to deal with the recalls of these two products. Several factors were found to be significant predictors of respondents’ cautious actions for both product scenarios. Policy considerations regarding product quality risks are discussed. For example, risk communicators could reframe information messages to prompt people to consider total risks packed together from different causes, even when the risk message has been initiated due to a specific recall event.     

融合内容分析和关联分析的短生命周期体验品需求特征模式挖掘方法研究

挖掘特定产品的需求模式无法从整体掌握该类产品的市场特征;短生命周期体验品因缺乏历史销售数据,并且销售总量波动性极大,尤其需要从整体掌握销售总量与产品属性间关系的需求特征规律,但又难以挖掘,亟待提出适用于该类产品的需求特征模式挖掘方法。基于按销售总量分区后各区的需求特征的规律性,提出了一种按销售总量分区、以已有产品介绍集和销售总量为源信息、适用于新产品开发前使用、融合内容分析和关联分析的短生命周期体验品需求特征模式挖掘方法。该方法包括基于内容分析法的产品属性挖掘方法和基于关联分析的产品属性关系模式挖掘方法。前者可以得到较全面的产品属性;后者能够构建不同销售总量区间内产品集的属性关系模式,得到各区间的产品属性关系网,获得高销售总量区间具备,但中、低区间不具备的属性关系模式,从而获得需求特征模式。通过不断更新产品介绍集和销售总量并迭代挖掘,该方法能够动态挖掘需求特征模式。最后利用2013至2016年国产犯罪和爱情类电影数据验证了该方法的可行性,并得到了这两类电影的产品属性及近年的需求特征模式,可用于指导这两类电影的创作。     

Job scheduling with dual criteria and sequence-dependent setups: mathematical versus genetic programming

Flexibility, speed, and efficiency are major challenges for operations managers in today's knowledge-intensive organizations. Such requirements are converted into three production scheduling criteria: (a) minimize the impact of setup times in flexible production lines when moving from one product to another, (b) minimize number of tardy jobs, and (c) minimize overall production time, or makespan, for a given set of products or services. There is a wide range of solution methodologies for such NP-hard scheduling problems. While mathematical programming models provide optimal solutions, they become too complex to model for large scheduling problems. Simultaneously, heuristic approaches are simpler and very often independent of the problem size, but provide “good” rather than optimal solutions. This paper proposes and compares two alternative solutions: 0-1 mixed integer linear programming and genetic programming. It also provides guidelines that can be used by practitioners in the process of selecting the appropriate scheduling methodology.     

LIABILITY AS A CATALYST FOR PRODUCT STEWARDSHIP

Product stewardship is the set of practices related to reducing risks from chemical and process hazards in a company's supply chain. This paper develops an economic framework for evaluating supply chain liability as a driver for adopting product stewardship. Companies that outsource production may face residual liability for damages from use of their products, when liabilities are large enough to exceed supply chain partners' assets. The resulting potential liabilities can be mitigated through product stewardship. This paper shows that extended supply chain liabilities provide incentives for investing in reducing environmental hazards throughout the supply chain.     

Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams

In the past few years, the field of dam safety has approached risk informed methodologies throughout the world and several methodologies and programs are appearing to aid in the systematization of the calculations. The most common way of implementing these calculations is through the use of event trees, computing event probabilities, and incremental consequences. This methodology is flexible enough for several situations, but its generalization to the case of systems of several dams is complex and its implementation in a completely general calculation methodology presents some problems. Retaining the event tree framework, a new methodology is proposed to calculate incremental risks. The main advantage of this proposed methodology is the ease with which it can be applied to systems of several dams: with a single risk model that describes the complete system and with a single calculation the incremental risks of the system can be obtained, being able to allocate the risk of each dam and of each failure mode. The article shows how both methodologies are equivalent and also applies them to a case study.     

Consumer Awareness, Understanding and Usage of Unit Pricing

The debate continues over whether prescribed quantities or unit pricing offers the best method to enable consumers to make value-for-money comparisons. In theory, the 'informed' consumer should benefit from being given unit-price information to identify optimum purchases; in practice, however, it would appear that many consumers do not use the data. Although unit pricing can reduce the level of confusion caused by large product ranges and large numbers of unique size–price combinations, results of a survey of over 1000 people showed that: 31% of the sample did not understand how unit pricing was meant to help them compare products; 35% could not be bothered to look at unit prices and 28% stated that unit pricing was too difficult to use. Those least likely to look at unit prices are women, the least educated and consumers aged 18–34. The research investigated why consumers do not use unit-price information and found: some consumers do not possess the cognitive ability to process the information and feel unit pricing is too complicated to use; some products are not comparable, which makes unit prices misleading; many shops do not provide unit-price information; unit-price information was felt unnecessary when evaluating products with few or no alternative sizes or brands; unit-price comparisons take too much time; consumers use simpler strategies for getting value for money, e.g. volume discount heuristic, own brands, special offers, x% free, reward points, etc. The paper explores policy and retailer implications for unit pricing and examines recommendations for government.     

Inventory management maximization based on sales forecast: case study

The major purpose of this paper is to present a concept for reliable planning of the sales of small firms, where the large number of product variants complicates the implementation of this kind of system considerably. First, a methodology is presented to set up sales forecasting so that it can be integrated into the inventory management process. This inventory management software interprets forecasting information and provides users with a decision support system to minimize stocks in stores while at the same time avoiding missed sales. It is best applied in company types requiring high precision inventories, notably those in the textile industry; a large range of patterns are produced with many small variations (colors, size, customizations, etc.) and these products have a limited lifetime. Inventory management is difficult due to the multitude of products to account for and the necessity to sell them quickly. The methodology is intended for inventory management at the end of the supply chain. In store, the number of references, their similarities and the necessity to minimize unsold stock greatly complicates the reordering and restocking process. These types of companies do not easily lend themselves to classic techniques of sales forecasting and require specialized methods to estimate their needs precisely.     

A Simple Upper Limit for the Sum of the Risks of the Components in a Mixture

Natural or manufactured products may contain mixtures of carcinogens and the human environment certainly contains mixtures of carcinogens. Various authors have shown that the total risk of a mixture can be approximated by the sum of the risks of the individual components under a variety of conditions at low doses. Under these conditions, summing the individual estimated upper bound risks, as currently often done, is too conservative because it is unlikely that all risks for a mixture are at their maximum levels simultaneously. In the absence of synergism, a simple procedure is proposed for estimating a more appropriate upper bound of the additive risks for a mixture of carcinogens. These simple limits also apply to noncancer endpoints when the risks of the components are approximately additive.     

Spotting a market gap for a new product

Many new products and substitute technologies fail because they enter markets too late or with too little price/performance advantage. Essentially, these products have missed their window for successful market entry. To avoid this type of product entry error, management should locate and define the boundaries of the strategic entry window for their products or technologies.     

Assessing the lead market potential of countries for innovation projects

This paper presents an approach to assessing the potential of countries to lead the global adoption of an innovation and to set a global product or process standard. It can be observed that the specific design of an innovation diffuses worldwide after it has been adopted in a single country. We suggest that there are nation-specific characteristics that increase the likelihood that a locally preferred innovation design will become successful in other countries, too. Once users in a market that has lead market characteristics have adopted a specific innovation design, the possibility increases that users in other countries subsequently adopt it as well. We present a lead market concept for the development of global innovation designs. By focusing on the design of the innovation that responds to the preferences within the lead market, a company can leverage the success experienced in the lead market for a global market launch. In order to follow a lead market strategy of new product development, it is necessary to assess the lead market potential of countries before an innovation is developed and tested in the market. We use an indicator-based methodology that approximates the lead market attributes of countries. The assessment methodology is applied to two innovation projects at the truck division of DaimlerChrysler.     

The Use of Risk Assessment to Decide the Control Strategy for Bluetongue in Italian Ruminant Populations

The affiliation, assessment and management of risks is a traditional part of veterinary medicine. In the past, veterinary services involved in this type of activity usually assessed risks qualitatively. However, since the 1990s, quantitative methods have become increasingly important. The establishment of the World Trade Organization in 1994, and the promulgation of its Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the "SPS Agreement") led to an increased application of import risk analysis and to significant improvements in the methodology of risk analysis as applied to international trade policy for animals and animal products. However, there was very little development of risk analysis in veterinary fields other than international trade and management of health risks to consumers of animal products and little has been published on its use in the choice and definition of control or prophylaxis strategies for animal diseases. This article describes a quantitative risk assessment, which was undertaken in Italy to help choose an appropriate national response strategy following an incursion of bluetongue, an infectious disease of sheep and goats. The results obtained in this study support the use of risk analysis as a tool to assist in choosing an appropriate animal disease management strategy. The use of risk analysis in the evaluation of disease management strategies also offers advantages in international trade. It makes easier the comparison of different strategies applied in the various countries, and thus facilitates the assessment of equivalence of the guarantees provided by different strategies.     

Import Security: Assessing the Risks of Imported Food

We use data on food import violations from the FDA Operational and Administrative System for Import Support (OASIS) to address rising concerns associated with imported food, quantify import risks by product and by country of origin, and explore the usefulness of OASIS data for risk assessment. In particular, we assess whether there are significant trends in violations, whether import violations can be used to quantify risks by country and by product, and how import risks depend on economic factors of the country of origin. The results show that normalizing import violations by volume of imports provides a meaningful indicator of risk. We then use regression analysis to characterize import risks.  Using this model, we analyze import risks by product type, violation type, and economic factors of the country of origin.  We find that OASIS data are useful in quantifying food import risks, and that the rate of refusals provides a useful decision tool for risk management.  Furthermore, we find that some economic factors are significant indicators of food import risk by country.     

钱平:越野生存 真正的野外驾车,是对智慧、应变能力的考验

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Strategies for Environmentally Sustainable Products and Services

Industry leaders are setting the goal of sustainable products and services. The question is how this necessary but ambitious goal can be met. The author focuses on the environmental aspect of the expression “sustainable”. Strategies like eco-innovation, re-designs, and product improvements are discussed using examples such as the development of fuel cell vehicles, and the use of renewable and recycled materials. Major single actions (e.g. the development of new propulsion systems) as well as small improvements create a significant environmental benefit in total if “environmental economies of scale” are reached through mass production. Life cycle strategies, service instead of product strategies, as well as the link between “old” and “new” economy are described. The opportunities and challenges of these strategies for sustainable products are discussed. The author believes that it is necessary to look at a combination of all these strategies in order to reach the goal of sustainable products and services. In future, increasing numbers of life cycle stakeholders may have to be involved in these efforts, as their involvement is key to providing very efficient and effective additional positive effects.     

Judgments of Personal and Environmental Risks of Consumer Products—Do they Differ?

Many psychometric studies have investigated judgments concerning personal risks from technologies, activities or consumer products, but only a few studies have included judgments of risk to the environment. Thus, little is known about this aspect of environmental risk perception, and whether it differs from personal risk perception. This study investigates risk judgments for 30 consumer products of various types such as herbal remedies, mobile telephones, genetically engineered drugs, or garden pesticides. A survey was conducted in two German cities: Leipzig and West Berlin. In total, 408 subjects evaluated the consumer products with regard to personal and environmental risk (and other risk-related aspects) and whether they would recommend the product to others. The findings show statistically significant differences between the mean values of perceived personal risk and environmental risk for most products. Despite these differences, the rank order of mean personal risk and environmental risk judgments for the products is quite similar. However, separate analyses for each product reveal that correlations between perceived personal and environmental risk vary strongly across products. Multiple regression analyses with personal and environmental risk judgments as predictors and product recommendation as criterion, run separately for each consumer product, show that it is mainly the judgment of perceived personal risk that explains product recommendation. Perceived risk to the environment adds little explanatory power. The study also explores differences in judgments of personal and environmental risk with regard to two sociodemographic variables: location (former East Germany vs. West Germany) and gender. Differences in both types of risk judgments are found with regard to location but not for gender.     

基于消费者损失效用的概率销售策略研究

随着网络信息技术的迅猛发展，概率销售作为一种新颖的销售策略广泛应用于旅游业。在双寡头销售商竞争销售背景下，两销售商分别向损失中性和损失厌恶型消费者销售高档产品和概率产品（中低档产品打包成概率产品）。本文首先运用博弈方法建立了损失中性下的概率销售模型，揭示了产品质量对销售商策略的影响。考虑到消费者在购买概率产品后存在期望损失，我们进一步构建了损失厌恶下的概率销售模型，研究了期望损失对概率销售策略的影响。研究表明期望损失为概率销售商实施概率销售提供了可能性，同时可以增加概率销售商的利润，但可能会损害其竞争者的利益；销售商是否采用概率销售策略主要取决于消费者对购买损失和选择损失的敏感度。最后给出了数值应用结果及管理学启示。     

Managing Multiple Facets of Risk in New Product Alliances*

The trend of forming alliances to develop new products continues; however, many of these new product alliances fail. As such we explore how key risk types intrinsic in new product alliances, performance, relational, and knowledge appropriation risks, influence alliance success. Further, we theorize that different alliance governance mechanisms can reduce the negative impact of risks on alliance success. To disentangle possible heterogeneous factors across firms that may affect the interplay of risk assessments and the use of governance mechanisms, we employ latent class regression analysis on survey data collected from 128 new product alliance firms and find support for a two‐regime solution. Longer alliance relationships and lower technological turbulence are factors for some firms (regime one), while the opposite are factors for other firms (regime two). These two regimes show different patterns in the interplay of risk assessments and governance for alliance success. Our theory and results support viewing risk as a multiple‐factor concept and by understanding the different impacts of the risk types in new product alliances and how governance mechanisms mitigate such effects, we aid managers' decision making regarding the balance of contractual versus normative governance in new product alliances. Understanding the heterogeneous factors inherent in these complex relationships enables managers to understand the conditions in which various governance mechanisms promote new product alliance success.     

On the Benefits of Assortment‐Based Cooperation Among Independent Producers

Motivated by the challenges small‐ to medium‐size companies face in export‐oriented industries, we consider a competitive market for a set of substitutable products. Depending on the assortment of the firms and the substitution behavior of the customer, either a product is sold to the customer or the sale is lost. We consider the cooperation of independent producers that offer a combined set of products to their customers. Producers use discounted price contracts to manage the exchange of products among themselves. We propose an analytical model that enables us to determine the characteristics of firms and their products that would facilitate a beneficial cooperation. We conclude that a cooperation between symmetric single‐product firms is always beneficial, whereas threshold‐type criteria should be satisfied so that assortment‐based cooperation is beneficial for asymmetric firms. We also show that commonality in product assortments of cooperating firms has adverse effects on the benefit from cooperation. For the most general problem setting, we propose a method to determine the set of firms that should cooperate and set the parameters of the contract among the members of cooperation in such a way that each member of the cooperation is better off. We use a numerical study to draw insights on the conditions for which our cooperation scheme is beneficial in the most general problem setting.     

Product Positioning Using a Self‐Organizing Map and the Rings of Influence

In this article, we propose a new product positioning method based on the neural network methodology of a self‐organizing map. The method incorporates the concept of rings of influence, where a firm evaluates individual consumers and decides on the intensity to pursue a consumer, based on the probability that this consumer will purchase a competing product. The method has several advantages over earlier work. First, no limitations are imposed on the number of competing products and second, the method can position multiple products in multiple market segments. Using simulations, we compare the new product positioning method with a quasi‐Newton method and find that the new method always approaches the best solution obtained by the quasi‐Newton method. The quasi‐Newton method, however, is dependent on the initial positions of the new products, with the majority of cases ending in a local optimum. Furthermore, the computational time required by the quasi‐Newton method increases exponentially, while the time required by the new method is small and remains almost unchanged, when the number of new products positioned increases. We also compute the expected utility that a firm will provide consumers by offering its products. We show that as the intensity with which a firm pursues consumers increases, the new method results in near‐optimal solutions in terms of market share, but with higher expected utility provided to consumers when compared to that obtained by a quasi‐Newton method. Thus, the new method can serve as a managerial decision‐making tool to compare the short‐term market share objective with the long‐term expected utility that a firm will provide to consumers, when it positions its products and intensifies its effort to attract consumers away from competition.