DECONSTRUCTING THE SUCCESS OF REAL BUSINESS CYCLES

The empirical success of Real Business Cycle (RBC) models is often judged by their ability to explain the behavior of a multitude of real macroeconomic variables using a single exogenous shock process. This paper shows that in a model with the same basic structure as the bare bones RBC model, monetary, cost-push or preference shocks are equally successful at explaining the behavior of macroeconomic variables. Thus, the empirical success of the RBC model with respect to standard RBC evaluation techniques arises from the basic form of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, not from the specific role of the productivity shock. ( JEL E32, E37)     

THE IMPORTANCE OF SECTORAL AND AGGREGATE SHOCKS IN BUSINESS CYCLES

The theoretical literature on business cycles proposes numerous causes for their occurrence. This paper attempts to measure the relative importance of aggregate, whether real or nominal, and sectoral factors in generating real economic fluctuations, as well as to identify economic variables that are correlated with the various factors. Empirical results indicate that both aggregate and industry-level factors are statistically significant in explaining variations in output with the aggregate factor being the most important. Some evidence is presented that links the aggregate factor with monetary variables.     

REAL BUSINESS CYCLES AND THE LUCAS PARADIGM

When the Lucas paradigm is generalized to include real effects, the effects of real factors and monetary factors on the business cycle are always interrelated. Furthermore, in such models monetary factors can affect the long-run behavior of real output, contrary to the commonly held view that they cannot. Real business cycle models and Lucas-type models are different paradigms, but not in the sense of real versus monetary. Rather, interrelationships between real and monetary factors are intrinsic to the Lucas paradigm, whereas the real business cycle literature implies a dichotomy between real and monetary factors.     

POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE NEW KEYNESIAN MODEL

This paper tests various political business cycle theories in a New Keynesian model with a monetary and fiscal policy mix. All the policy coefficients, the target levels of inflation and the budget deficit, the firms' frequency of price setting, and the standard deviations of the structural shocks are allowed to depend on “political” regimes: a preelection versus postelection regime, a regime that depends on whether the president (or the Fed chairman) is a Democrat or a Republican, and a regime under which the president and the Fed chairman share party affiliation in preelection quarters or not. The results provide evidence that several coefficients are influenced by political variables. The best‐fitting specification, in fact, is one that allows coefficients to vary according to a regime that depends on whether the economy is in the few quarters before a presidential election or not. Monetary policy becomes considerably more inertial before elections and fiscal policy deviations from a simple rule are more common. There is some evidence that policies become more expansionary before elections, but this evidence disappears for monetary policy in the post‐1985 sample. (JEL C11, D72, E32, E52, E58, E63)     

IMPERFECT COMPETITION and BUSINESS CYCLES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Does imperfect competition increase the magnitude of business cycles? If so, the variability of an industry's employment and output should be positively related to the market power of firms in that industry. This paper demonstrates that the opposite is true: U.S. manufacturing industries with high price-cost margins display less employment variability than do low-markup industries. These high-markup industries display less price variability as well. Highly concentrated industries, however, do display more employment variability. To some degree, markups may reflect labor hoarding rather than market power; this may account for part, but not all, of the negative correlation between markups and variability.     

INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE ON FRIEDMAN'S THEORY OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Milton Friedman's theory of the business cycle implies two empirical regularities tested for here. One regularity is that business cycles are asymmetric: The size of a contraction affects the size of the following expansion, but not vice versa. The second regularity is that a supply-side ceiling to aggregate output limits the size of expansions. Friedman's correlation methods yield only very weak support for the asymmetry hypothesis when applied to real GNP data of eight OECD countries. A time series model with a ceiling component fits the data well for a majority of the countries.     

NONLINEAR BUSINESS CYCLE DYNAMICS: CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON THE PERSISTENCE OF AGGREGATE SHOCKS

We look for asymmetries in the dynamics of real GDP growth for the G7 countries, using a model by Beaudry and Koop that allows the depth of a recession to influence the rate of growth of output. We find evidence supporting these nonlinearities in four countries, including the United States, but we do not find evidence that the asymmetries are common even among the four countries exhibiting asymmetric behavior. A modification of the model to distinguish between the recession and recovery phases of a business cycle does not change this general finding. The asymmetries discovered by Beaudry and Koop do not appear to be common among the G7 nations. (JEL E32)     

THE EFFECT OF UNIT FEES ON THE CONSUMPTION OF QUALITY

A law-of-demand explanation to the Alchian-Allen, or "shipping the good apples out," proposition rests on a change in the relative price of quality when a unit fee is introduced. However, the manner in which quality is consumed is crucial. In some cases, for instance, there is no substitution between the quality attribute and the priced, quantity-measured attribute. This paper shows that in these cases the relative price of quality is unchanged by a unit fee. Nevertheless, while the "unit fee" proposition fails to obtain for individual choice, it does hold in aggregate.     

ON ENDOGENOUS BUSINESS CYCLES UNDER INCREASING RETURNS TO VARIETY AND SECTOR‐SPECIFIC EXTERNALITY

We examine the theoretical as well as quantitative interrelations between endogenous business cycles, increasing returns to product variety and sector‐specific productive externalities within a two‐sector real business cycle model. In a calibrated version of our benchmark closed‐economy setting, the threshold level of investment externalities needed for equilibrium indeterminacy is found to be monotonically increasing in the degree of market competitiveness. We also study the model's local stability properties (i) when the parameters that govern the level of intermediate‐good producers' market power and the strength of variety effects are disentangled; and (ii) in the context of a small open economy. (JEL E30, E32, O41)     

EFFECT OF CAPITAL IMPORTS ON SAVINGS AND GROWTH IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

This paper examines some of the arguments of the critics of foreign aid and other capital inflows to less developed countries (LDCs). The paper finds that the critics lack sufficient evidence on the supposedly adverse effect of capital transfers to LDCs on their savings and growth of incomes. This, however, does not mean that these capital inflows always promote growth in LDCs. In particular, it is shown that the relative importance of foreign capital on economic growth of LDCs would depend on the degree to which that growth is constrained by the lack of capital.     

THE EFFECT OF TECHNICAL CHANGE ON MARKET STRUCTURE

The paper examines the effects of technical change on market structure. It is found that: 1) the role of independent inventors and small firms is much more important in the early stages of the evolution of a product; 2) the net effect of innovations on entry reverses itself over the product cycle; 3) there is a shift in the importance of various sources of innovation over the product cycle. The two forces which contribute to this result are: 1) a decline in the importance of innovations as technology matures and 2) the proliferation of products adapted to specialized uses.     

THE SHIFTS IN LEAD-LAG PROPERTIES OF THE U.S. BUSINESS CYCLE

We document shifts in the lead-lag properties of the U.S. business cycle since the mid-1980s. Specifically, (1) the well-known inverted leading indicator property of real interest rates has completely vanished; (2) labor productivity switched from positively leading to negatively lagging output and labor inputs over the cycle; and (3) the unemployment rate shifted from lagging productivity negatively to leading positively. Many contemporary business cycle models produce counterfactual cross-correlations revealing that popular frictions and shocks provide an incomplete account of business cycle comovement. Determining the underlying sources of these shifts in the lead-lag properties and their consequences for macroeconomic forecasts is therefore a promising direction for future research. (JEL E24, E32, E43)     

THE EFFECT OF INSURANCE COVERAGE ON PREVENTIVE CARE

Despite the growth in health insurance products that differentially cover preventive care and nonpreventive care, little is known about how preventive care utilization responds to targeted changes in coverage. Using administrative data from a large company, this paper examines the implementation of an insurance benefit design which differentially increased the price of nonpreventive care while decreasing the price of prevention. Leveraging a difference‐in‐differences research strategy, we find that preventive care utilization did not increase and even declined due to the differential price change. This evidence indicates a meaningful negative cross‐price effect, suggesting that nonpreventive care and preventive care are complements. (JEL I13, I11)     

THE EFFECT OF THE FOOD STAMP PROGRAM ON NUTRIENT INTAKE

Receipt of food stamps is often observed to be positively correlated with intake of nutrients. However, this observed fact could be the result of self-selection into the food stamp program by those individuals who are more interested in maintaining good nutrition. We observe that, controlling for participation in the food stamp program, nutrition is negatively affected by food stamp income for a sample of elderly people. However, we find that the levels of nutrients do not decrease enough to cause individuals to fall below the Recommended Dietary Allowance.