Invariant dependence structure under univariate truncation

The class of all bivariate copulas that are invariant under univariate truncation is characterized. To this end, a family of bivariate copulas generated by a real-valued function is introduced. The obtained results are also used in order to show that the Clayton family of copulas (including its limiting elements) coincides with the class of copulas that are invariant under bivariate truncation and contains all exchangeable copulas which are invariant under univariate truncation.     

On estimating extremal dependence structures by parametric spectral measures

Estimation of extreme value copulas is often required in situations where available data are sparse. Parametric methods may then be the preferred approach. A possible way of defining parametric families that are simple and, at the same time, cover a large variety of multivariate extremal dependence structures is to build models based on spectral measures. This approach is considered here. Parametric families of spectral measures are defined as convex hulls of suitable basis elements, and parameters are estimated by projecting an initial nonparametric estimator on these finite-dimensional spaces. Asymptotic distributions are derived for the estimated parameters and the resulting estimates of the spectral measure and the extreme value copula. Finite sample properties are illustrated by a simulation study.     

Semi-polynomial copulas

In this paper, we characterise a family of bivariate copulas whose sections between the main diagonal and the border of the unit square are polynomial, generalising several families of copulas, including those with quadratic and cubic sections. We also study a measure of association and the tail dependence for this class, illustrating our results with several examples.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of skew-t copulas with its applications to stock returns

The multivariate Student-t copula family is used in statistical finance and other areas when there is tail dependence in the data. It often is a good-fitting copula but can be improved on when there is tail asymmetry. Multivariate skew-t copula families can be considered when there is tail dependence and tail asymmetry, and we show how a fast numerical implementation for maximum likelihood estimation is possible. For the copula implicit in a multivariate skew-t distribution, the fast implementation makes use of (i) monotone interpolation of the univariate marginal quantile function and (ii) a re-parametrization of the correlation matrix. Our numerical approach is tested with simulated data with data-driven parameters. A real data example involves the daily returns of three stock indices: the Nikkei225, S&P500 and DAX. With both unfiltered returns and GARCH/EGARCH filtered returns, we compare the fits of the Azzalini–Capitanio skew-t, generalized hyperbolic skew-t, Student-t, skew-Normal and Normal copulas.     

Projection estimators of Pickands dependence functions

The authors consider the construction of intrinsic estimators for the Pickands dependence function of an extreme‐value copula. They show how an arbitrary initial estimator can be modified to satisfy the required shape constraints. Their solution consists in projecting this estimator in the space of Pickands functions, which forms a closed and convex subset of a Hilbert space. As the solution is not explicit, they replace this functional parameter space by a sieve of finite‐dimensional subsets. They establish the asymptotic distribution of the projection estimator and its finite‐dimensional approximations, from which they conclude that the projected estimator is at least as efficient as the initial one.     

Non-parametric Estimation of Tail Dependence

Abstract.  Dependencies between extreme events (extremal dependencies) are attracting an increasing attention in modern risk management. In practice, the concept of tail dependence represents the current standard to describe the amount of extremal dependence. In theory, multi-variate extreme-value theory turns out to be the natural choice to model the latter dependencies. The present paper embeds tail dependence into the concept of tail copulae which describes the dependence structure in the tail of multivariate distributions but works more generally. Various non-parametric estimators for tail copulae and tail dependence are discussed, and weak convergence, asymptotic normality, and strong consistency of these estimators are shown by means of a functional delta method. Further, weak convergence of a general upper-order rank-statistics for extreme events is investigated and the relationship to tail dependence is provided. A simulation study compares the introduced estimators and two financial data sets were analysed by our methods.     

Analysis of directional dependence using asymmetric copula-based regression models

The directional dependence between variables using asymmetric copula regression has drawn much attention in recent years. There are, however, some critical issues which have not been properly addressed in regards to the statistical inference of the directional dependence. For example, the previous use of asymmetric copulas failed to fully capture the dependence patterns between variables, and the method used for the parameter estimation was not optimal. In addition, no method was considered for selecting a suitable asymmetric copula or for computing the general measurements of the directional dependence when there are no closed-form expressions. In this paper, we propose a generalized multiple-step procedure for the full inference of the directional dependence in joint behaviour based on the asymmetric copula regression. The proposed procedure utilizes several novel methodologies that have not been considered in the literature of the analysis of directional dependence. The performance and advantages of the proposed procedure are illustrated using two real data examples, one from biological research on histone genes, and the other from developmental research on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.     

Nonparametric estimation of copula functions for dependence modelling

Copulas characterize the dependence among components of random vectors. Unlike marginal and joint distributions, which are directly observable, the copula of a random vector is a hidden dependence structure that links the joint distribution with its margins. Choosing a parametric copula model is thus a nontrivial task but it can be facilitated by relying on a nonparametric estimator. Here the authors propose a kernel estimator of the copula that is mean square consistent everywhere on the support. They determine the bias and variance of this estimator. They also study the effects of kernel smoothing on copula estimation. They then propose a smoothing bandwidth selection rule based on the derived bias and variance. After confirming their theoretical findings through simulations, they use their kernel estimator to formulate a goodness-of-fit test for parametric copula models.     

Testing and dating structural changes in copula-based dependence measures

This paper is concerned with testing and dating structural breaks in the dependence structure of multivariate time series. We consider a cumulative sum (CUSUM) type test for constant copula-based dependence measures, such as Spearman''s rank correlation and quantile dependencies. The asymptotic null distribution is not known in closed form and critical values are estimated by an i.i.d. bootstrap procedure. We analyze size and power properties in a simulation study under different dependence measure settings, such as skewed and fat-tailed distributions. To date breakpoints and to decide whether two estimated break locations belong to the same break event, we propose a pivot confidence interval procedure. Finally, we apply the test to the historical data of 10 large financial firms during the last financial crisis from 2002 to mid-2013.     

LTD and RTI dependence orderings

The authors show how the approach of Capéra à & Genest (The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 1990) can be used to order bivariate distributions with arbitrary marginals by their degree of dependence in the LTD (left‐tail decreasing) or RTI (right‐tail increasing) sense. Some properties of these new orderings are given, along with applications to Archimedean copulas, order statistics and compound random variables.     

Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.     

Nonparametric estimation of the lower tail dependence λL in bivariate copulas

The lower tail dependence λ_L is a measure that characterizes the tendency of extreme co-movements in the lower tails of a bivariate distribution. It is invariant with respect to strictly increasing transformations of the marginal distribution and is therefore a function of the copula of the bivariate distribution. λ_L plays an important role in modelling aggregate financial risk with copulas. This paper introduces three non-parametric estimators for λ_L. They are weakly consistent under mild regularity conditions on the copula and under the assumption that the number k = k(n) of observations in the lower tail, used for estimation, is asymptotically k ≈ √n. The finite sample properties of the estimators are investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation in special cases. It turns out that these estimators are biased, where amount and sign of the bias depend on the underlying copula, on the sample size n, on k, and on the true value of λ_L.     

A method of moments estimator of tail dependence in meta-elliptical models

A meta-elliptical model is a distribution function whose copula is that of an elliptical distribution. The tail dependence function in such a bivariate model has a parametric representation with two parameters: a tail parameter and a correlation parameter. The correlation parameter can be estimated by robust methods based on the whole sample. Using the estimated correlation parameter as plug-in estimator, we then estimate the tail parameter applying a modification of the method of moments approach proposed in the paper by Einmahl et al. (2008). We show that such an estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Further, we derive the joint limit distribution of the estimators of the two parameters. We illustrate the small sample behavior of the estimator of the tail parameter by a simulation study and on real data, and we compare its performance to that of the competitive estimators.     

Semi‐Parametric Models for the Multivariate Tail Dependence Function – the Asymptotically Dependent Case

Abstract. In general, the risk of joint extreme outcomes in financial markets can be expressed as a function of the tail dependence function of a high‐dimensional vector after standardizing marginals. Hence, it is of importance to model and estimate tail dependence functions. Even for moderate dimension, non‐parametrically estimating a tail dependence function is very inefficient and fitting a parametric model to tail dependence functions is not robust. In this paper, we propose a semi‐parametric model for (asymptotically dependent) tail dependence functions via an elliptical copula. Under this model assumption, we propose a novel estimator for the tail dependence function, which proves favourable compared to the empirical tail dependence function estimator, both theoretically and empirically.     

Tail dependence of skew t-copulas

We examine tail behavior of skew t-copula in the bivariate case. The tail dependence coefficient is calculated for different skewing parameter values and compared with the corresponding coefficient for the t-copula. It is shown that depending on skewing parameter values, the tail dependence coefficient can differ considerably from the tail dependence of the t-copula. The speed of convergence of the estimator of tail dependence coefficient to its theoretical value is examined in a simulation experiment. Method of moments and maximum likelihood method are compared by simulation either. In the considered cases, maximum likelihood method converged faster to the theoretical value.     

Directional Dependence of Genes Using Survival Truncated FGM Type Modification Copulas

Ordinal data, such as student's grades or customer satisfaction surveys, are widely used in daily life. We can fit a probit or logistic regression model to the ordinal data using software such as SAS and get the estimates of regression parameters. However, it is hard to define residuals and detect outliers due to the fact that the estimated probabilities of an observation falling in every category form a vector instead of a scalar. With the help of latent variable and latent residuals, a Bayesian perspective of detecting outliers is explored and several methods were proposed in this article. Several figures are also given.     

沪深股市风险的相关性分析

一、引言经过十多年的发展 ,我国的证券市场已经取得了举世瞩目的成就 ,证券市场与经济发展的联系越来越紧密 ,在国民经济中有着举足轻重的地位 ,但其中所存在的一些问题也日益受到人们的关注 ,特别是加入WTO大家庭以后 ,对于市场的进一步规范 ,从而防止泡沫的进一步扩大与市场风险的发生都有着更为迫切的要求。在市场经济条件下 ,股票市场经常出现大起大落现象 ,股票价格的剧烈波动是股票市场最显著的特征之一 ,因此 ,作为监管机构对股市中的波动更为关心。从上证指数和深证指数的波动来看 ,我们能够发现 :这两个股市具有很强的相关性 ,…     

Nonparametric estimation of multivariate extreme-value copulas

Extreme-value copulas arise in the asymptotic theory for componentwise maxima of independent random samples. An extreme-value copula is determined by its Pickands dependence function, which is a function on the unit simplex subject to certain shape constraints that arise from an integral transform of an underlying measure called spectral measure. Multivariate extensions are provided of certain rank-based nonparametric estimators of the Pickands dependence function. The shape constraint that the estimator should itself be a Pickands dependence function is enforced by replacing an initial estimator by its best least-squares approximation in the set of Pickands dependence functions having a discrete spectral measure supported on a sufficiently fine grid. Weak convergence of the standardized estimators is demonstrated and the finite-sample performance of the estimators is investigated by means of a simulation experiment.