Accommodating stake effects under prospect theory

This paper investigates how letting people predict others’ choices under risk affects subsequent own choices. We find an improvement of strong rationality (risk neutrality) for losses in own choices, but no such improvement for gains. There is no improvement of weak rationality (avoiding preference reversals). Overall, risk aversion in own choices increases. Conversely, for the effects of own choices on predicting for others, the risk aversion predicted in others’ choices is reduced if preceded by own choices, for both gains and losses. Remarkably, we find a new probability matching paradox at the group level. Relative to preceding studies on the effects of predicting others’ choices, we added real incentives, pure framing effects, and simplicity of stimuli. Our stimuli were maximally targeted towards our research questions.     

Bias and brains: Risk aversion and cognitive ability across real and hypothetical settings

I collect data on subjects’ risk attitudes using real and hypothetical risky choices. I also measure their cognitive ability using the cognitive reflective test (CRT). On average, measured risk preferences are not significantly different across real and hypothetical settings. However, cognitive ability is inversely related to risk aversion when choices are hypothetical, but it is unrelated when the choices are real. This interaction between cognitive ability and hypothetical setting is consistent with the notion that some individuals, specifically higher-ability individuals, may treat hypothetical choices as “puzzles,” and provides one potential explanation for why some studies find that subjects indicate that they are more tolerant of risk when they make hypothetical choices than when they make real choices.     

Exploring the Australian policy context relating to women’s reproductive choices

This study explored Australian federal level policy instruments which influence and impact on women’s reproductive choices and the consequences of those choices. A systematic policy search and mapping exercise was undertaken. Eighteen policy instruments were identified at the Federal level and were explored through a policy framework and thematic analysis. Findings indicate there are multiple layers of influence on women’s reproductive choices and the consequences of those choices, and the policy instruments interact in multiple dynamic, interconnected and contextual ways. Yet, they also lack cohesion and congruency, failing to account for women’s life circumstances while at the same time shifting the promoted position for women in each policy instrument. The policy instruments seek to regulate, control and selectively support women’s reproduction while simultaneously silencing, marginalising and reprimanding some groups of women.     

Common genetic effects on risk-taking preferences and choices

Although prior research has shown that risk-taking preferences and choices are correlated across many domains, there is a dearth of research investigating whether these correlations are primarily the result of genetic or environmental factors. We examine the extent to which common genetic factors account for the association between general risk-taking preferences and domain-specific risk-taking preferences, and between general risk-taking preferences and risk taking choices in financial investments, stock market participation and business formation. Using data from 1898 monozygotic (MZ) and 1344 same-sex dizygotic (DZ) twins, we find that general risk-taking shares a common genetic component with domain-specific risk-taking preferences and risk-taking choices.

     

Justice in an uncertain world: Evidence on donations to cancer research

The paper uses information on actual and hypothetical charitable contributions to cancer research in the United Kingdom to elicit information on justice principles endorsed by donors. They face a choice between fund-raising contributions for several hereditary and lifestyle-related cancers. Donors’ choices of how much to donate to different cancers reveal how they view luck vis-a-vis risky individual choices. The estimation results reveal that donations are smaller for cancers with higher prevention rates, which is the probability that the potential cancer victim can avoid the cancer in question by some choice. We also find that provision of information on lifestyle-related causes of cancer adversely affects contributions. In contrast, information on hereditary causes has a positive effect on donations. Furthermore, a large share of donors indicated in their feedback that they chose donations to a hereditary over a lifestyle-related cancer to “punish” poor individual choices. These findings suggest that many donors lean toward choice egalitarianism, which conditions donations on the potential beneficiaries’ choices.

     

GIRLS MAKING CHOICES ABOUT CAREERS: THE IMPORTANCE OF PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

Because of the gender-differentiated nature of the Australian workforce, it is important to gain a clear understanding of how girls and women make choices about careers. The data in this paper originate from a study involving girls discussing their subject choices as they move into Year 11 at school. The study revealed a strong link between subject choices and career aspirations. Furthermore, personal experiences of a career through home or school activities were usually necessary for a girl to aspire towards that career. This raises questions about the efficacy of trying to influence career decisions through brief exposure to role models. It also suggests the need to supplement the experiences of those girls with limited experiences related to careers.     

Accepting and Negotiating Service Users' Choices in Mental Health Transition Meetings

Across Western welfare regimes, policies emphasize that service users should have more choices regarding their services. This article examines how service choices are presented, responded to and decided in interactions between service users and professionals in mental health transition meetings. Choice is often associated with consumerist user involvement ideas, but in mental health choice also relates to the democratic user involvement approach and to shared decision making between professionals and service users. The results of the study show that professionals construct service users as consumers by offering service options in choice making sequences, expecting users to make appropriate choices. Service users mostly act like consumers by responding to these choice options. However, the study also demonstrates that the professionals do not always accept the user's first choice but respond to them as non‐preferred. Sometimes, they also suggest choices on behalf of the users. In these ‘non‐accepting’ sequences, choices are negotiated in interaction between the parties, rather than users acting as autonomous choice makers. The sequences are based on two kinds of professional reasoning: first, the professional‐led needs assessment and, second, the structure of the service package that the user is being offered. This negotiation has elements of shared decision making and the ‘logic of care’. But it also has elements of paternalist control which challenge both consumerist and democratic service user involvement and suggests consideration of more collectively oriented service user actions.     

Individually Rational Collective Choice

There is a collection of exogenously given socially feasible sets, and, for each one of them, each individual in a group chooses from an individually feasible set. The fact that the product of the individually feasible sets is larger than the socially feasible set notwithstanding, there arises no conflict between individual choices. Assuming that individual preferences are random, I characterize rationalizable collective choices.     

Competence effects for choices involving gains and losses

We investigate how choices for uncertain gain and loss prospects are affected by the decision maker’s perceived level of knowledge about the underlying domain of uncertainty. Specifically, we test whether Heath and Tversky’s (J Risk Uncertain 4:5–28, 1991) competence hypothesis extends from gains to losses. We predict that the commonly-observed preference for high knowledge over low knowledge prospects for gains reverses for losses. We employ an empirical setup in which participants make hypothetical choices between gain or loss prospects in which the outcome depends on whether a high or low knowledge event occurs. We infer decision weighting functions for high and low knowledge events from choices using a representative agent preference model. For gains, we replicate the results of Kilka and Weber (Manage Sci 47:1712–1726, 2001), finding that decision makers are more attracted to choices that they feel more knowledgeable about. However, for losses, we find limited support for our extension of the competence effect.     

Ethical Decision Making in Social Work with Groups

This paper reports on a study of decision-making among group work practitioneers in group situations where ethical dilemmas exist and choices must be made between two or more contradictory alternatives. The study investigated the bases upon which social workers with groups make ethical decisions and the actions they select when confronted by contradictory choices. Results indicated that practice wisdom is the primary basis for ethical decision-making by social workers with groups.     

A Game-Theoretic View of Voting

Two game-theoretic arguments for the potential rationality of voting are presented. The first argument suggests that people make choices that allow the most favorable forecasts. People choose to vote inasmuch as they project their own choices between voting and abstaining more strongly onto members of their own political group than onto members of other political groups. Relevant evidence is reviewed and extended by new findings in a simulated public-goods dilemma. The second argument suggests that people preview how they will feel about each of the four possible scenarios generated by the conjunctions of their own choices (to vote or to abstain) and the election outcome (victory or defeat). They choose to vote inasmuch as they feel their own vote will not be wasted. The implications of both arguments for efforts to increase turnout are discussed.     

Loss Averse Behavior

A behavioral condition of loss aversion is proposed and tested. Forty-nine students participated in experiments on binary choices among lotteries involving small scale real gains and losses. At the aggregate level, a significant proportion of the choices are in the direction predicted by loss aversion. Individuals can be classified as loss averse (28 participants), gain seeking (12), and unclassified (9). A comparison with risk behavior for binary choices on lotteries involving only gains shows that risk attitudes vary across these domains of lotteries. A gender effect is also observed: proportionally more women are loss averse. In contrast to the predictions of comonotonic independence, the size of common outcomes has systematic influence on choice behavior. JEL Classification: D81, C91     

Deciding Where to Retire: Intended Retirement Location Choices of Formerly Undocumented Mexican Migrants*

Objective. I use transnational theory to address how transnational relationships, behavior, and context influence retirement location choices of recently legalized immigrants. I also account for the relationship between assimilation and retirement location choices. Methods. To test these theories, I use the 1992 Legalized Population Survey to examine formerly undocumented Mexican immigrants' attachment to the United States through their intended retirement location, either the United States or Mexico. I use logistic regression to test whether the two theories are related with retirement location choices. Results. I find strong support for the role of transnational factors, thus widening the scope of the literature to include variables linking immigrants to their communities within Mexico. Conclusion. This study empirically tests and quantifies transnational theory using multivariate analysis, and adds to the transnational literature by suggesting that national boundaries are political constructs that do not completely contain social and economic systems.     

Estimating individual and group preference functionals using experimental data

In this paper, the empirical performance of several preference functionals is assessed using individual and group experimental data. We investigate if there is a risky choice theory that fits group decisions better than alternative theories, and if there are significant differences between individual and group choices. Experimental findings reported in this paper provide answers to both of those questions showing that expected utility gains a “winning” position over higher-level functionals (we considered disappoint aversion and two variants of rank-dependent utility) when risky choices are undertaken by individuals as well as by small groups. However, in the group experiment, alternatives (and, most notably, disappoint aversion) improve their relative performance, a fact that hints at the existence of differences between individual and group choices. We interpreted this result as evidence that feelings-like disappointment aversion become stronger in group decision.     

巴基斯坦的战略选择：伊斯兰、联盟与进攻性防御

巴基斯坦自建国以来始终面临着外部压力和内部紧张,基于地缘状况、政府体制、意识形态、文化传统以及军事、经济、技术等限制因素,其逐步形成和发展了＂伊斯兰、联盟、进攻性防御＂的三大战略选择。本文对三大战略选择的历史轨迹及其内在局限和相互矛盾做出了简要考察,并提出巴基斯坦的当前和未来取决于主政者如何理解巴基斯坦的战略资源、能力、环境和历史使命以及如何克服三大选择的内在局限和相互矛盾。     

Consumer‐directed care for older Australians: Are resources identified on the Web adequate to support decisions about home‐based care packages?

Consumer‐directed care (CDC) was introduced as part of aged care policy reforms in Australia in 2012. CDC aims to promote choice and control for people with complex needs who need home care and supports. While more choices may bring benefits, information and resources are needed by people to navigate new and complex care‐related decisions. In 2017, we identified the resources available to support consumers of the new CDC Home Care Packages (HCP) program via an Internet search. Forty‐six resources were analysed to assess the adequacy of information to inform care choices. General information was most frequently found, but information to guide specific choices, such as choosing or changing service providers, was limited. Accessibility of information was limited for non‐English speakers and for people with low literacy or reduced capacity for decision making. No training opportunities were identified, and only one non‐partisan organisation offered support for decision making. Overall, the information and supports analysed were not adequate to assist older people to make choices to ensure consumer direction of care. There is an urgent need to improve the quality and accessibility of information and provide training and support for choice, particularly for those with limited decision‐making capacity, such as those living with dementia.     

The politics of AIDS curricula in the schools: A case study of New York

Some research has been carried out on the contours of school-based AIDS education programming. Some statistical analysis has explored basic correlates of schools' choices. However, a comparative school district study with a full multivariate analysis has yet to be done. This paper reports on a pilot study, based upon New York state data, designed to ascertain the relative impact of a variety of socio-political variables on schools' AIDS curricular choices. Implications for policymakers are discussed.     

Transaction analysis: A framework and an application to insurance decisions

Creating or interpreting people's choices requires attention to a great many details. A framework initially presented in this journal (Fischhoff and Furby, 1988) specifies those details. It is applied here to several insurance-related choices appearing in Johnson et al. (1993) and elsewhere. These specific applications suggest alternative explanations for the results of these studies. The approach as a whole provides an alternative perspective regarding reliance on experiments and markets to study people's preferences.     

Experimental evidence on the irreversebility effect

This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on how increased expected information affects subjects' choices. We show that Claude Henry's (1974) result (the Irreversibility Effect) is strongly supported by our experimental data. According to the Irreversibility Effect a rational (expected utility maximizing) agent who anticipates more information before making his future choices, will take a less irreversible position today. In our experiment, present and future choices are framed respectively as portfolio and investment decisions. The degree of irreversibility (or flexibility) chosen by experimental subjects in response to additional information indicated that subjects react to anticipated information as predicted by theory.     

Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities

We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The experimental task consists of a series of standard lottery choices in which the subject is assumed to use conventional risk attitudes to select one lottery or the other and then a series of betting choices in which the subject is presented with a range of bookies offering odds on the outcome of some event that the subject has a belief over. Knowledge of the risk attitudes of subjects conditions the inferences about subjective beliefs. Maximum simulated likelihood methods are used to estimate a structural model in which subjects employ subjective beliefs to make bets. We present evidence that some subjective probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance.